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1、182000联邦监狱囚犯63越狱5逃亡者1目击者走起来，大家Keepitmoving,boys.Brown?-是Brown?-Yeah.1.ewis?-是1.ewis?-Yo.Nichols?-是Nichols?-Right.Williams?-是Williams?-Yo.McDowd?McDowd?Brice?-是Brice?-Yo.好吧,自己找座,伙计们Allright,haveaseat,boys.都在这儿了Allset.6个囚犯Sixprisoners-现在安全的交给你了processedandsecuredfortransfer.旅途愉快Haveanicetrip.看看这个Check
2、itout.25尺的大家伙Itsa25-footer.这样一艘船,一个人就能驶到CatalinaBoatlikethat,amancansailtoCatalina,如果愿意的话,甚至能一路驶到MexicoallthewaytoMexicojfhesodesired.是啊Yeah.我们能去吗？Arewethereyet?别抢道，小子！Outoftheway,vato!嘿，你!Yo,Seor!那是你的卡车？Thatyourtruck?很好，进去Good.Getin.我们要搭你的顺风车了！Youregivingusaride.快点！Vamonos!快点!别磨踏！Vamonos!Vengase!进去
3、！Getin!抱歉，在你休假时还让你干活Sorrytobringyouinonyourdayoff.哦，没什么Oh,thatsallright.这里大致是什么情况？Whatstheheadcounthere?我们分♥析♥大概有两点Wegottwointhebush.目击者说这是个交通事故Witnesssaystherewasanaccident,巴士翻车了busrolledover.然后枪响了Minutelatertheresashot,两个人跳出来，劫持了一辆小货车twoguysjumpout,car-jackapick-up,往西开去takeoffheadedw
4、est.有没有死者的情况？Dispatchersaidsomethingaboutafatality?EscortMarshal-.EscortMarshal.-Oh.关于这些家伙我们知道些什么？whatdoweknowabouttheseguys?给你档案Here,sthefile.这就是MarshalTheresthemarshal.我猜这个“V”代表速度ItakeitVstandsforvelocity.撞击速度-哦Post-impactvelocity.-Oh.“F”是阻力系数？andF,thatsdragcoefficient?对.你是个推理专家？Yeah.Youareconstru
5、ctor?什么？Excuseme?事故推理专家Accidentreconstructor.哦，不.我是个应用数学教授Oh,no.maprofessorofappliedmathematics我为FBI做顾问andIconsultfortheFBI.哇”教授Wowprofessor.你在哪里教书？Wheredoyouteach?CalSciCalSci.我的前男友在CalSci学工程MyexwenttoCalSciforengineering.其实现在他在保险公♥司♥做推理专家He,uh,heactuallyisareconstructorforaninsurance
6、companynow.我们在处理一次101公路汽车相撞事故中认识的Wemetonacarcrashonthe101.总之,嗯，很高兴见到你Anyway,um,nicetomeetyou.很高兴见到你Nicemeetingyou.失陪了Excuseme.好,召集所有人Well,calleverybodyin.通告搜捕逃犯AndnotifyFugitiveRecovery.同时我们需要与此相关的资料Weregonnawanttheminvolved,aswell.好的,待会见AllrightLater.你参加吗？Yougoingin?对,快点,我带你Yeah,comeon.llgiveyouari
7、de.这就是他们？-没错Isthisthem?-Yup.他们中有一个是无期徒刑Oneofthemhasalifesentence.没有假释的可能Nopossibilityofparole.哦，那他就没什么可顾及的了Yeah,nothingtolose.我们每天都在使用数学Weallusematheveryday.预测天气toforecastweather.记算时间totelltime.货币交易tohandlemoney.我们还用数学来分&hearts淅♥犯罪.Wealsousemathtoanalyzecrime.有逻辑的It,slogic.有理性的Itsrationality.
8、利用数字It,susingyourmind我们可以处理很多神秘的事物tosolvethebiggestmysteriesweknow.第1个逃犯:VinCentWiniamSFugitiveone:VincentWilliams.直到今天早上Untilthismorning,Vincent因纵火罪服刑了8年Vincentwasservingeightyearsonanarsoncharge.第2个逃犯是TimothyMcDowdFugitivenumbertwoisTimothyMcDowd.他是个职业杀手受雇于洛杉矶附近的许多毒品商Hesacontractkillerwithanumbero
9、fdrugdealersinandaroundLosAngeles.大约1年半以前他杀害了一个联邦调查员Now,heexecutedafederalinformantaboutayearandahalfago当时一个女目击者作了不利于他的证词whichwaswitnessedbyawomanwhotestifiedagainsthim,所以她的安全问题正是我们当前要密切关注的soIwouldsayhersafetyisourimmediateconcern.当地电视台的新闻正在播逃犯的照片1.ocalnewsstationsarerunningtheirphotos.我们接到了电&hearts
10、;话♥线索Weregettingphonetips,但直到现在，还没有有用的东西butsofar,nothinghaspannedout.现在我们所知道的只有Asfarasweknow,他们都没有驾驶执照也没有身份证neitherofthemhavedriver,slicenseorIDs,所以我不太担心他们可以乘飞机逃跑somnottooworriedaboutthemgettingonaplane,尽管如此我们也应该一直监视机场,对吗？althoughWeshouldkeepoureyeontheairports,right?我的钞票在说他们还待在本地Mymoneysayst
11、heystaylocal.嘿Hey.好吗？howareyou?各位,这位是特工BillyCooperEverybody,thisisAgentBillyCooper,他来加入我们搜捕逃犯的行动-嗨ComingtoUScourtesyofFugitiveRecovery.-Hey.好的,逃犯通常会去他们熟悉的地方Okay,sotheseguysusuallygowheretheyrefamiliar,和他们有联♥系♥的地方wheretheyreaffiliated.他们出生于LA,我猜他们会待在那儿They,rebothfromLA,somyguessistheyst
12、ickaround.如果离那个地区远点儿对摆脱搜捕来说Wouldntitbesmartertoleavethearea,不是个更聪明的想法吗？-对，getawayfromthesearch?-Yeah,确实对,但他们并不聪明sureitwould,butthey,renotsmart,这就是为什么他们会进监狱whichiswhytheywenttoprisontobeginwith.不聪明并不表示他们不危险Whichdoesntmeantheyrenotdangerous.看这些档案-Solookatthefiles-我是说,家庭,朋友，Imean,family,friends,团伙.这是找到
13、他们的关键gangpals.thatsthekeytofindingthem.走吧-让我们去逮他们,怎公样？1.etsgo-letsruntheseguysdown,allright?见到你真好,伙计-是啊,你看起来不错Goodtoseeyou,buddy.-Yeah,youlookgood.我想你们两个认识？Itakeityoutwoknoweachother?对,你知道我原来就是搜捕逃犯的Yeah,well,youknowIusedtoworkinFugitiveRecovery.我们是一个团队的Well,wewereateam.如果你想结识一个人Nobetterwaytogettokno
14、waman没有比在加油站休息室当据点一起待上一周更好的方式了thantospendaweekusingagasstationrestroomashomebase.哈,令人怀念的日子DavidSinclairAh,thegoodolddays.-DavidSinclair.很荣幸Pleasure.总之,你是怎么计划的？Anyway,so,uh,howdoyouwannaplayit?我想让你们来处理Williams或许能够找到他mthinkingyouguysgoafterWilliams;IthinklltakeMcDowd.好,原来指证McDowd的证人怎么样了Allright.Whatab
15、outthewitnesswhoputMcDowdaway?我让洛城警♥察♥局保护她了，但我还是要和她谈谈证人保护的事IvegotLAPDonher,butmgonnagotalktoheraboutwitnessprotection.哪个房♥间?Whichroom?右边第1个Firstdoorontheright.Fisher医生Dr.Fisher.哦,在看病前需要去接待处登记-抱歉Oh,youjustneedtosigninwithreceptionbeforeIcanseeyou.-Excuseme.事实上,我是FBIactually,mwith
16、theFBI.我叫DOnEppesMynameisDonEppes.和你谈会好吗？Talktoyouforaminute?恩,好Uh,yeah.有变化马上通知我好Justletmeknowiftheresachange.-Okay.他们告诉你现在的情况了吗？-是的Theytoldyouwhatsgoingon?-Yeah.我无法形容我有多么希望IcanttellyouhowmuchIhoped别再让我听到McDowd这个名字我理解dneverhearthenameMcDowdagain.-msure.我们会竭尽全力找到他的Well,Imeanjcantellyouwe,redoingevery
17、thingwecantofindhim.好,听起来真耳熟Right.Soundsveryfamiliar.恩看,我能够想象得到Well.look,Icanonlyimagine.你现在所面临的情况whatyouregoingthrough.你能吗？Canyou?我看到这个家伙残忍♥地杀害了一个人Imean,Iwatchedthisguykillamanincoldblood.我作证那天,他.Theday1testified,he.看着我,笑了，lookedatmeandsmiled,然后用手指滑过喉咙thenranhisfingeracrosshisthroat.你所作的一切很需
18、要勇气1.ook,Imean,whatyoudidtookalotofcourage.你使他被判无期徒刑Imean,yougottheguyalifesentence,而他恐吓你hethreatenedyou.你现在要做的就是处处小心Thesmartmovewouldbetoerronthesideofcautionhere.我不能再做保护证人了1.ook,I-Icantdowitnessprotectionagain.对不起,我不能再做了msorry.Ijustcantdoit.听我说完,好吗？Justhearmeout,okay?这次不会很久It,snotgoingtobeforlong.
19、在这类案件里，我们要提防任何可能的事发生Imean,theoddsarealwaysinourfavorinthesekindofcases.我有病人Ihavepatients.我不能丢F他们Icantabandonthem.医生,我保证你能找到人代替你Doctor,msureyoucanfindsomebodytocoveryou.上次我接受保护ThelasttimeIwentintoprotection,我失去了生命中的6个月Ilostsixmonthsofmylife.我的意思是，我不是在逞强Imean,mnottryingtobebrave但是你有什么明确的理由认为他现在会来找我吗？b
20、utdoyouhaveanyspecificreasontothinkhe,scomingaftermenow?没有No.我是说,没有明确的,但是Imean,nothingspecific,but.那么我现在回去工作了Thendliketogetbacktowork.那么我撤走这些警♥察♥了mgonnaleavetheofficershere.这里的和你家里的Hereandatyourhome.我仍然坚持你应该接受保护-好吧mgoingtohavetoinsistonthat.-Okay.抱歉Excuseme.好的,谢谢Allright.Thankyou.Eppes
21、Eppes.是,我这就去Yeah,monmyway.这对我来说没有意义好的Thisiswhatdoesntmakesensetome.-Okay.为什么不从轮胎留下的标记开始Whyweren,tthemarksfromthetires.嗨,Charlie.Hey,Charlie.嗨,这是Morris警官,California公路巡警Hey,thisisOfficerMorrisoftheCaliforniaHighwayPatrol.这是我父亲和Fleinhardt博士-哦，ThisismyfatherandDr.Fleinhardt.-Oh,不要告诉我你又被开超速罚单了？pleasedont
22、tellmeyougotanotherspeedingticket?其实,你儿子在帮我做一个事故调查Actually,yoursonshelpingmewithanaccidentinvestigation.我们在尝试破解事故原因Weretryingtofigureoutwhatcausedit.我不知道你在为CHP做顾问IdidntknowyouwereconsultingfortheCHP.是吗？Areyou?这是Don的案子Donscase.什么样的事故会把FBI也搅进来？Yeah?WhatsortofaccidentinvolvestheFBI?监狱巴士出事了Prisonbuscras
23、h.我从新闻里看到了TheoneIsawonthenews.巴士里的罪犯逃脱了？Thebuswiththeescapedconvicts?Don在调查这个,是吗？Donisworkingonthat,huh?对,怎么了？Yeah.Why?哦,没事Oh,nothing.只是你哥哥总是在追捕逃犯lt,sjustthatyourbrotherwasworkingonfugitiverecoveryonceforawhile,恩总之uh.anyway.这看上去像是基础的牛顿机械理论AppearstobebasicNewtonianmechanics.工程学学生第一年的课程thestuffoffirst
24、-yearengineeringstudents.为什么你老是想着这些基本公式？Nowwhyhavetheseelementaryequationssocapturedyourimagination?哦，这么多同时发生、毫无关联的因素汇合在某一时刻Well,theconfluenceofsomanyunrelatedfactorscomingtogetheratagivenpointintime.其结果会惊人的接近于用做时序分&hearts淅♥的贝叶斯推论It,sactuallyquiteafascinatingapproachtoBayesianinferenceasappli
25、edtotheanalysisoftimeseriesdata.对,以至于我知道任何时候事故的发生Yeah,well,asfarasIknowanytimeanaccidenthappens都是因为某人犯了个错误itsbecausesomebodymadeamistake.对吗？AmIright?这就是我们要解决的Thatswhatwe,retryingtofigureout.答案没这么简单Theanswersnotthatsimple.我是说，一致性是一个数学原则Imean,coincidencesareamathematicalreality.概率上不可能的事件能够且经常发生Statist
26、icallyunlikelyeventscanandoftendooccur.就像我们行星的起源Justlookatthegenesisofourplanet.那么Well,now.我相信地球上生命的诞生就是概率上的不可能事件IagreethatthefactorsthatbroughtaboutlifeonEarthwerestatisticallyunlikely.但考虑到宇宙巨大宽广Butgiventhevastnessofthecosmos,物质和能量具有无限可能thelimitlesspossibilitiesformatterandenergy.这一点上我赞同爱因斯坦mwithEi
27、nsteinonthis.根本不存在意外Therearenoaccidents.Williams离开这里两年了Williamshasbeenawayfortwoyears.你真的认为他最想做的事情就是来看前女友吗？Youreallythinkseeinghisex-girlisgoingtobetopsonhislist?追捕男人的第一规则:找到他的女人Firstruleofmanhunting:Findhiswoman.也许她有新男友了Maybeshefoundsomebodynew.这是Williams的监狱记录ThisisWilliamsprisonrecords.他把所有打电&hear
28、ts;话♥的机会都用在她身上了Heusedallhisphoneprivilegescallingher.你认识Don多久了？HowlongyoubeenwithDon?没多久Notlong.大约1年Aboutayear.我记得听说他回到洛杉矶IrememberhearinghecamebacktoL.A.是因为他妈妈病了causehismomwassick.后来怎么样?她好了吗？Mowdthatworkout?Sheallright?她去世了Shedied.那就是从事逃犯追捕工作的另一面-ThatsthedownsideOffugitiverecovery-你会逐渐和别人失去联
29、♥系♥youtendtolosetouch.看来你很喜欢这工作Youseemtoenjoyit.我想是工作已经融人我的血液了Yeah,theworkkindofgetsinyourblood,Iguess.你的头儿就很擅长Yourbosswasdamngoodatit.他吗？Hewas?他曾经在墓地里呆了两周Spenttwoweeksinacemeteryonce,等着这家伙在他妻子的墓前露面.waitingforthisguytoshowupathiswifesgrave.在他向她的墓前摆放玫瑰时抓住了他Grabbedhimashewasputtingadozen
30、rosesonherheadstone.那她死的时候他在牢里？Shediedwhilehewasinprison,huh?不,正好在这之前No,justbeforehewent.就是他杀了自己的妻子He,stheonewhokilledher.嘿,注意.Hey,herewego.这些垃圾桶仍然属于她的财产Thecansarestillonherproperty.技术上,我们需要个许可证Technically,weneedawarrant.只有我们要进行法庭立案时才需要这样Onlyifwe,retryingtobuildacourtcase.这次我们不需要取悦那些律师了Wedonthavetop
31、leasethelawyersonthisone.给Here.用这个useit.她去购物了1.adysbeenshopping.女士内衣商店1.ingeriestore.她很可能联♥系♥到WilliamsTShemusthaveheardfromWilliams.哦？Well,see?这不过就是个时间问题rJustamatteroftimenow.SinCIair什么时候？Sinclair.when?他们找到被劫持的小货车rTheyfoundthepickuptruckthatwashijacked.登记中车主的名字叫AlbertODiazRegistrationg
32、ivestheownersnameasAlbertoDiaz.在Arleta郊外开一个园艺公♥司♥RunsagardeningcompanyoutofArleta.联♥系♥过他的办公室，联♥系♥过他的家Triedhisoffice,triedhishome.都没有回音Noanswerateither.查查半径三个街区内是否有汽车报失Seeifanycarswerereportedstolenin,like,athree-blockradius.他们现在应该已经弄到其他车子了Theymayhavepickedup
33、anothervehiclebynow,youknow?好的Allright.你和他们是一伙的吗？Youguysgotalineonthemyet?你是谁？Whoareyou?DannyReed,LAPD缉毒刑♥警♥DannyReed,LAPDNarco.嘿,Danny,你好Hey,Danny,howareyou?DonEppes.FBIDonEppes.FBI.对,我认得这衣服Yeah,Irecognizedthesuit.为什么缉毒刑♥警♥对这个感兴趣？WhyisNarcointerestedinthis?McDowdMcDowd.我
34、们正在进行一次大规模的毒品围剿然后你们突然介入Iwasworkingamultipledrugslayingwhenyouguysswoopedin从我这里把他偷走andstolehimfrommeawhileback.哦,是吗？Oh,yeah?好,很感激你能给我们协助Well,weappreciateanyassistanceyoucangiveus.我确定你会的msureyouwould.如果他仍然在逃，把抓他归案当作公平竞赛，怎样？So,iftheguysinthewind,hesfairgame,right?听着Reed我的职责是将联邦犯人逮捕归案1.isten,Reed,myprio
35、rityhereisapprehendingafederalprisoner.你的是什么？Whatsyours?我的职责是看看Mypriorityisseeing是否我能代表California政♥府♥往McDowd的胳膊上刺一针ifIcangettheStateOfCaliforniatostickaneedleinMcDowd1Sarm.哦,明白-联邦调杳局有过这样的机会，记得吗？Oh,Isee.-TheFedsalreadyhadtheirchance,remember?是，我们却把他放生了Yeah,weputhimawayforlife.我肯定会转告Esco
36、rtMarshal的遗孀你这样说过llbesuretotellthatescortmarshaswidowyousaidso.你不会妨碍我的,对吗？Yourenotgoingtogetinmywayonthis,now,areyou?不冼生，Eppes特工No,sir,AgentEppes.你真的明白吗？非常明白Good,we,reclearonthat?-Veryclear.很好Good.EppesEppes.是,CharlieYeah,Charlie.好的Okay.不要让人碰这辆卡车Nobodytouchesthistruck.我能理解运动方程式的精妙Icanunderstandthefa
37、scinationOfkinematicequations当一个有魅力的女警官在旁边工作,但whenworkingalongsideanattractivefemalepoliceofficer,but.为什么全是除草机器？whyallthelawnequipment?你所说的宇宙的汇合引发了一种理论Whatyousaidabouttheconfluenceofthecosmostriggeredathought.哦,我得提醒自己:决不再提量子学了Ah,notetoself:Nevertalkquantumtheoryagain.巴士的初速度绝对不可能超越卡车Theinitialvelocit
38、yofthebusbarelyexceedsthatoftheflatbed.它们之间的差距慢慢缩小了Thegapbetweenthemclosingslowly,接近每秒2英尺approximatelytwofeetpersecond.然后滑板出现了？-对Okay,andthenalongcomestheskateboard?-Thatsright.这是小货车Thepickuptruck.小货车沿着巴士的右侧往前开Thepickuptruckpullsalongtherightsideofthebus,他的速度比巴士每小时快13英里Itsvelocityis13milesperhourgre
39、aterthanthatofthebus.现在,这是关键Now,atthispoint,巴士和卡车之间的距离至少在84英尺thegapbetweenthebusandtheflatbedtruckisatleast84feet.这有足够的空间让小货车安全地开到巴士的前面Okay,thatsampleenoughroomforthepickuptosafelymaneuverinfrontofthebus.然而,差距突然变小了However,thegapsuddenlyclosed.小货车转到了巴士的前方Thepickupveersinfrontofthebus.巴士被迫改变方向.forcing
40、thebustomaneuver撞到护栏andhittheguardrail,这导致它扭转whichcausesittotorqueand.翻到一侧flipontoitsside.什么使巴士和卡车之间的距离缩小得这么快？Howdidthatgapclosesoquicklybetweenthebusandtheflatbed?有两种可能Twopossibilities.9One-巴士极快地加速thebusgreatlyincreaseditsvelocity.不,考虑到巴士的巨大质量No,no,no,giventhemassofthebus,这绝对不可能thatsextremelyunlike
41、ly.或者,二Ortwo-那辆卡车theflatbedtruck减速了reduceditsspeed在关键时刻，atthecriticalmoment,导致小货车转向到巴士前面causingthepickuptoveerinfrontofthebus.就是它Thatsit卡车慢下来-对Theflatbedsloweddown.-Thatsright.这意味着Well,thatwouldmean.一个马尔可夫链AMarkovChain.正确Exactly.先生们Gentlemen.这是在做什么？Whafsallthis?只不过是要让没意义的事情变得有意义Justtryingtomakesense
42、ofsomethingthatdoesntmakesense.这正是你最善于做的事Thoughtthatswhatyoudobest嗯，问题出在哪儿？What,uh,whatstheproblem?哦，很显然，就是播种机Well,apparently,thatseedspreader.就是那辆平板卡车Theflatbedtruck那怎么了？What-whataboutit?这次翻车不是意外事故Thecrashwasn,tanaccident.Don,让我们来演示一遍Don,itwasstaged.所有的这些不同的事件和因素Allthesedifferenteventsandfactors-从巴
43、士的初速度fromtheinitialvelocityofthebus到它最后的翻转-toitsfinaltorque-所有的这些引起了马尔可夫链allofthesecreatewhat,scalledaMarkovChain.什么链？Whatkindofchain?马尔可夫Markov.这是一个由随机值组成的序列Asequenceofrandomvalues在其中任意时间的数值概率都倚仗于前一时间点的数值wheretheprobabilitiesatanygiventimedependonthevaluesataprevioustime.马尔可夫链中的控制因素Thecontrollingfa
44、ctorinaMarkovChain被称为可变概率iscalledthetransitionalprobability.现在，在这个案子中Now,inthiscase,巴士到达公路上某一点时thebusreachesacertainpointintheroad正好是卡车阻碍了通路justasthetruckblocksthelane,又正好是小货车超过巴士并道justasthepickupcutsoffthebus.什么告诉你这不是意外事故呢？Whichtellsyouitwasntanaccident?Bayesian统计学和Chapman-Kolmogorov方程式Bayesianstat
45、isticsandtheChapman-Kolmogorovequationtellmethat.你肯定你是他哥哥吗？Areyousureyourehisbrother?如果卡车维持它的初速度Iftheflatbedtruckhadmaintaineditsinitialvelocity,那么小货车就应该有足够的地方轻松安全地超越巴士well,thenthepickupshouldhaveenoughspacetoroamfreelypastthebus.但它没有safely-butitdidnt.卡车在这一时刻的减速连同小货车同步的运动Thetrucksloweddownjustattherightmomentjustasthepickupti
