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1、孩子们Hey,kids.看着Watchthis.不错Notbad.ROb.?我的吸入器Rob.?-Myinhaler.该死的花粉Thedamnpollen.好些了么？Better?rob?Rob?rob!Rob!rob啊天哪！Rob,oh,mygod!孩子们快打911Boys,call911.rob!Rob!救命啊！Somebodyhelpme!嗨-嗨Hey.-Hi.什么案子？WhatdoWegot?robevans34岁看起来是中风患者RobEvans,34.Apparentstrokevictim.你说“看起来”是什么意思？Whatdoyoumean-apparent?国家健康组织在过去2
2、个多礼拜Thenationalinstituteofhealthhasidentifiedfourunusualseizures在洛杉矶已经发现4例可疑癫痫患者了inLosAngelesinalittleovertwoweeks.因此他们给我们打了电♥话♥Sotheycalledus.他们认为是假药Theythinkitsproducttampering.这些人抽搐发作的时候都是吃的非处方药品Allthevictimswereonover-the-countermedicationswhentheseizuresstruck.有什么事么david?Whatdoyou
3、say,David?晚上好Evening.NIH已经分离出毒物了是PrimaleCt.NIHidentifiedthetoxinasPrimalect-一个麻黄碱衍生物是镇痛药可以引发中风anephedrine-basedpainrelieverknowntocausestrokes.你是说那些药都被一种药污染了？Allthesedrugswerepoisonedwithadifferentdrug?是的Yeah.这还不是最可怕的地方Thatsnoteventhescariestpart.污染的药品品种每次都不同Itsnotthesameproducteverytime.有时候红色喷鼻药One
4、occasionwasanasalspray有时候是止咳药anotherwasacoughsuppressant还有2次是呼吸吸入剂叫做truftenandontwooccasionsitwasanasthmainhalercalledTruften.也就是说是对3种产品的随机攻击Soitsrandomattacksonthreetotallydifferentproducts.而且是从洛杉矶4个不同的药店里买♥♥的PurchasedofftheshelfatfourseparatepharmaciesacrossL.A.county.也就是说召回是不怎么管用的So
5、nowaytodoaneffectiverecall.也就是说所有用药的人都可能被这个疯子杀死Whichleavesanyoneneedingmedicationcompletelyvulnerabletoamaniac.我们每天用到数学Weallusematheveryday.来预测天气topredictweather.计算时间totelltime.管理金钱tohandlemoney.数学不是简单的公式和方程Mathismorethanformulasandequations.它是逻辑It,slogic.数学不是简单的公式和方程mathismorethanformulasandequatio
6、ns.它是理性It,srationality.是用你的大脑来解决我们已知的最大难题It,susingyourmindtosolvehebiggestmysteriesweknow.数字追凶第二季第九集Primalect在四年前临床试验后就没有继续生产了Primalectwasdiscontinuedfouryearsagoafterclinicaltrials.试验发现它做为镇痛药Developedasabasicpainreliever可以导致相当多比例的人itwasfoundtocausestrokesandarrhythmia出现中风和心律不齐inastatisticallysignif
7、icantnumberofcases.知道现在谁能搞到它么？Knowwhowouldhaveaccesstoitnow?临床试验后么？药剂师医生护上医院工作人员都可以Afterclinicaltrials-pharmacists,doctors,nurses,hospitalstaff.好消息是我不认为他是想杀人Thegoodnewsis,Idon,tthinkheintendedtokill.为什么？Why?他有能力把剂量控制的恰到好处Anarrow-gaugesyringesuggestssomelevelofcompetence.这不更危险么？Wouldntthatmakehimmore
8、dangerous,though?是的但是他可以用土的丁Yeah,buthecouldhaveusedstrychnine或者氟化物或者任何可以致人orcyanideoranyoneofahundredtoxins死命的毒物thatwereavailablethatwouldhavecausedfatalities.是的因此他就选择一种Right.Sohejustchoseaproduct只对某些服用它的人起作用的产品thatwouldonlybeharmfultoapercentageofthosewhousedit.这不表明他想谋杀Whichdoesnotdescribeahomicida
9、lintent.这更像是他想跟我们交流It,smorelikehestryingtocommunicatewithus.嗨CharIie-我不能找到意图HeyCharlie.-Well,Icantspeaktointent但是我能提供一些方法学上的帮助butIcanshedalittlelightonthemethodologyused.好吧我们从megan的假设开始Okay,sostartwithMegansassumption假设嫌疑人想和我们交流thatourpoisoneristryingtocommunicatewithus,right?他.他在通过污染这些药品He,s-hestry
10、ingtoprovideinformation向我们提供信息bytamperingwiththesemedications.现在唯一的共性就是Now,thecommonality-thepointhekeepsrepeating-他用的毒物ishischoiceofmedications.是的我们没有找到这3种产品的其他共性Yeah,butwedidntfindaconnectionbetweenanyofthethreeproducts.3种？不don是四种4Three?No,Don,four.Four.你们忘记把污染剂本身算上了Youguysareforgettingaboutthecon
11、taminateitself.也就是primalectTheprimalect.是的但是他们现在就没卖♥♥的Yeah,buttheydontevensellthatanymore.可能不是哦根据信息理论它们之间还是有联♥系♥的Maybenot,butinformationtheoryindicatesthatthereisaconnection.什么是信息理论？Sowhat,sinformationtheory?信息理论是这样的Informationtheory-it,saboutgettingamessage从A点到B点传递一条信息fr
12、ompointAtopoint,B.就拿3人爵士小乐队打比方吧他们演奏一首曲子Pictureathree-piecejazzcomboplayingacertainsong.我们可以通过很多不同的方式听到这个曲子Therearemanydifferentwaystohearthesamesong.卷个方式听到的都不同Eachmethodwillreproducethemusicdifferently但是旋律-旋律还是能听的出来butthetune-thetuneremainsdiscernible.现在假设污染药品是嫌疑人的曲子Nowiftamperingmedicationsisourpoi
13、sonersmusic那么primalect就是他的旋律thenPrimalectisthekeyhesplayingitin.等等你认为它不只是一个武器Wait,youthinkitwasmorethanjustaweapon.我认为它是这个信息的关键Ithinkitsthekeytothemessage.四年前PrimaleCt就禁止使用了ThePrimalectcontroversywasoverfouryearsago.我们把它从市场上召回了Wepulledthatfromthemarket在它导致了相当数量的中风之后Notbeforeitcausedasignificantnumbe
14、rofstrokes.是的但这就是临床试验reeves探员Well,thatswhatclinicaltrialsarefor,agentReeves.另外据我所知这次污染的药品Butitsmyunderstandingthattheproducttampering不只是我们公&hearts词♥生产的truften吸入剂啊isntlimitedtotheTrufteninhalersourcompanymakes.请坐Please.111射谢Thankyou.是的这种东西也污染了止咳药和鼻吸药No,theproductwasalsousedtocontaminatecoughsy
15、rupandnasalspray.鼻吸药是在tallridge实验室研制的ThepatentforthenasalspraywasdevelopedatTallridgelabs是一个graybridge公♥司♥的分支机构asubsidiaryofGraybridge-止咳药也是graybridge公♥司♥的产品andthecoughsyrupisalsoaGraybridgeproduct.所有这3种药品还有那个毒药Allthreeproductstamperedwithandthepoisonused都和你们公♥司&he
16、arts;有关canbetracedtoyourcompany.brindell先生你被瞄上了Yourebeingtargeted,Mr.Brindell.你建议我们怎么做呢？Whatwouldyousuggestwedo?我们的建议是把你们的药品都召回Whatwouldwesuggest?Atotalrecallofallyourproducts.你想让我因为四例污染事件召回数百种药品？Youexpectmetopullhundredsofmedicationsoverfourinstancesoftampering?有2个孩子差点失去父亲rTwokidsalmostlosttheirdad
17、.有一个大学生差点因为咳嗽而不能重返课堂Acollegestudentwithacoughalmostnevermadeitbacktoclass.这不是个例Thesearentinstances.graybridge生产研发国内急救药品的13%Graybridgedevelopsandmanufactures13%ofthenationsvitaldrugs这里面包括最有效的救心丸includingthemostefficientheartmedicationsonthemarket.我们还为第三世界国家提供大量的廉价药品Weprovidethethirdworldwithlargequan
18、titiesofmedicineatlowandnocost.听起来你已经找好借口了啊Thatsoundslikeyouhaveahellofapressreleaseprepared.有2000万人患有哮喘20millionpeoplehaveasthma.其中有900万是孩子Ninemillionofwhicharechildren.你制♥造♥灾难Youwanttodosomerealdamage吓唬人们不要用药就可以了makepeoplesoscaredthattheydonttakethemedicinesthatcanhelpthem.我们理解你们公&he
19、arts;司♥不想Weunderstandthatyourcompany,sworkedveryhard让这些消息曝光tokeepthisoutofthenews.为了避免出现民众恐慌Toavoidapublicpanic.由于缺少确凿证据AndintheabsenceofhardfactsFDA和FBI还会继续调杳此事theFDAandtheFBIarewillingtogoalongwiththat.但是如果你还是不合作的话Butifyourestonewallingus最后事情败露我们会把你当时的态度也公布出去whenthisnewscomesout,thatsgoingt
20、obeabigpartofit.我尊敬您的责任感Irespectyourpassion.我尊敬你的工作尊敬你但是请不要威胁我Irespectyourjob.Irespectyou.Butpleasedontthreatenme.或者我的公♥司♥ormycompany.我们没做错什么Wevedonenothingwrong.这个家伙污染非正处方药Theguyspoisoningover-the-counterdrugs我们现在没有声张是因为这个制药企业说服了我们andwe,rekeepingquietbecausethemanufacturerconvincedust
21、o.我觉得.这简直是乱来Imean,boy,ifthatdoesn,tsaysomething.关于什么？About?合作.他们的影响Corporations-theirinfluence.研究花费很多金钱Researchcostsalotofmoney.如果没有有钱的公♥司♥你什么进步也得不到Withoutcompanieswithresourcesyoucantgetanydevelopment.也就是说你认为像graybridge这样的So,what,youthinkitsokayforsomeonelikeGraybridge公♥司&heart
22、s;卖♥♥可能致病的药给人们是合适的了？toselldrugsthatarepotentiallyharmfultopeople?不我是说没什么东西是绝对安全的No,Imsayingnothingiscompletelysafe.花生还能致人死命呢Peanutscankillsomepeople.如果这是我们禁止药品销♥售♥的标准Ifthatwerethestandardtoreleasingdrugs那么我们什么药也得不到-不论是处方药还是别的药thenyouwouldnthaveanydrugs-prescriptionorother
23、wise.嗯8个字母意思是任性的词是什么Okay,eight-letterwordfor,uh.egotistical.Conceited.（逞能的）Conceited.Conceited”是9个字母Conceitedisanine-letterword.C-o-n-c-e-t-e-d.C-o-n-c-e-t-e-d.Charlie别人认为我们的教育系统在你身上是完全失败了Anotherpersonmightthinkthatoureducationalsystemhasfailedyoucompletely,Charlie.你知道在城市设计中Yousee,inurbanengineering
24、每建一座桥梁就会伤害一些人的财产everytimeyoubuildabridgeitdestroyssomeonesproperty.每建一个天桥就会损害一些人的生意Everybypasshurtssomeonesbusiness.但是还是要建Imean,youknowthatgoingin.你需要衡量一下收益和损失的比例Youjusthavetoweighthebenefitsagainsttherisks找到收益大于损失的方案andhopetohellyouredoingmoregoodthanharm.我不同意我认为我们能干点什么Idontbuythat.Imean,there,sgot
25、tobesomethingWecando.你知道如果是某一种药Youknow,ifitwereonedrugbelieveme我们会发布警告的wewouldputoutapublicwarning但是你不能发布随机药品的警告啊butthethingis,howdoyouwarnagainstrandomattacks?也就是说它是随机的它是随机的Well,there,srandomandthentheresrandom.有什么不同么？Thedifferencebeingwhat?把这个给我Here,givemethat铅笔用铅笔Pencil,pencil.好Okay.我们现在有一个信息流对吧H
26、erewehaveastreamofinformation,right?一些字符串对吧恩是s-t-eAstringofletters.Okay,sowhatisit?It,ss-t-e?现在我们怎么找到下一个字母Allright,sowhatsthenextletter?这要看提示7个字母的有毛的原生动物Well,thatdependson.seven-letterwordforciliateprotozoan.爸爸先不管提示Dad,ignoretheclue.哦那就是任何东西了Well,itcouldbeanything.可能是.stencil.”steeple.stellar.”Itcou
27、ldbe.,stencil.,r,steeple.stellar.可以是任何东西itcouldbeanything.不是任何东西爸爸是很多东西Notanything,dad.Just.justalotofthings.你看没有线索的话See,absentotherinformation-clues-我们不知道下一个字母会是什么Wereally.wedontknowwhatthenextlettersgoingtobe.但是有很多字母Butsincetherearelettersthataremorelikely作为下一个字母的可能性大一些tobethenextletterinthesequen
28、cethanothers比如A和E或者是RlikeAorE；orlikeR.”我知道你的意思了这不是完全随机的Iseewhatyouresaying.Soitsnotcompletelyrandom.这叫做信息权值It,scalledinformationentropy.你看你可以限定在字母表里26个可能性See,youreboundedbythealphabet.26possibilities.另外的限制就是英语单词FurtherboundedbytheinventoryoftheEnglishlanguage.那么我们的嫌疑人的限制是什么呢？Sowhatisourpoisonersboun
29、daries?好吧你看他只专注于graybridge公♥司♥的药品RightWell,Imean,look,heonlymessedwithGraybridgesdrugs.好吧这是限制之一Sothatsoneboundary.Okay.现在你可能找到地理上的限制是吧Nowyoumightmakegeographicalassumptionsaswell,right?我想你不会认为他可以跳到别的星球上吧Imean,itsnotlikelyhesgoingtojumponaplane或者是去爱达荷州来进行下一次攻击toIdahoforthenextattack.是的但
30、是这个网还是太大了Yeah,butyou,restillcastingaverywidenet.能不能用你的权值理论再限制一下呢Canyounarrowitdownusingyourentropything这样我们就能找到可能的下一次袭击的地点sothatwecouldpinpointwherehemighthitnext?好吧你们想限定一些Well,giventhelimiteddatasetyouretalkingabout我所需要做的就是alltheworkIhavetodo.你知道我不能1mean,itsnotlikeIcanjust,youknow.就这么随便设计一个方程任何问题就都
31、解决了whipupamagicformulaforeverysingleproblem.你上个礼拜五可不是这么说的Well,that,snotwhatyousaidlastFriday.他当时喝了点啤酒所以就.Well,hedidhaveacouplebeersinhim,so.不是喝了点是喝了四瓶Actually,itwasfourbeers.是“StentOr”（喇叭虫）Andit,sstentor.什么?什么stentor?What?Whatisstentor?长毛的原生动物Theciliateprotozoan.就连我这一个执法者Youknow,asalawenforcementoff
32、icer也对有这么多人商店夹带感到吃惊Ishouldntbethisshockedathowmanypeopleshoplift.哎呀我们关注这个吧Comeon,mconcentratinghere.我正想从过去500小时的录像带里找出注射污染物的人mtryingtofindaproducttamperingneedlein500hoursofvideohaystack.嗨上级让我们把这个案子当作一个勒索案子来办Hey,guys,theassistantdirectorwantsthistreatedasaseriousextortioncase,okay?而不是当作健康危机来办Notasap
33、ublichealthcrisis.也就是说还是对媒体封♥锁♥消♥息♥Whichmeanstotalpressblackoutremains.晚了也许该事先通知一下这个家伙Well,someoneshouldhavetoldthebadguy.什么？开什么玩笑他向一个周刊透露了消息What,areyoukiddingme?What,hetippedafreeweekly?是的Yeah.“投毒声明”第一部（总10部）?!Thetoxicmanifesto.Partoneoften?!这里列出了他已经投毒的药品名单Itlistsallthed
34、rugshestamperedwith还有他准备投毒的几百种药品plushundredsmorehesaysheintendsonpoisoning.我想这个家伙等Iguessthisguygottiredofwaitingaround我们想出来怎么回事等的不耐烦了forustofigureoutwhathewastryingtosay.是的Yeah.他让所有需要这些药品的人Andleftanyoneinneedofthesemedications拿命来玩俄♥罗&hearts撕♥轮盘赌（左轮手&hearts枪♥放一发子弹2人交替对自己太阳穴开枪）top
35、layrussianroulettewiththeirlife.投毒声明Thetoxicmanifesto.他在这里详细写明了为什么要投毒Hegivesreallyspecificdetailsinhereastowhytheattacksoccur.看起来尽管graybridge公♥司♥已经知道危险性ApparentlytheFDAclearedPrimalectforclinicaltrialsFDA还是批准了primalect的临床试验despiteGraybridgeknowingtherisks.怎么知道的？Knowinghow?他们收到了潜在的中风和心脏
36、威胁的报告Theyhadreportsonthepotentialforstrokesandheartattacks但是他们最终还是诱使FDA同意继续试验andtheysomehowcajoledtheFDAintogoingforward,anyway.政♥府♥机关和大公♥司♥这么的亲密无间很感人哦It,sreallygreatwhenbigbusinessandgovernmentworksocloselytogether.你认为他下一步会干什么？Whatdoyouthinkhisnextmovewouldbe?这个在第一部里没有说到
37、Well,itdoesn,tsayhereinpartone但可能在第二部里就会提到了butitmightinpartstwothroughten.这是一个廉价酒吧It,salow-rentbar.报纸发行室就在里屋Yeah,newspaper,sinthebackroom.发行小报的古怪场所Strangeplacetoputoutafreeweeklynewspaper.哦伙计你无权这么做Comeon,man!Youhavenorighttobedoingthis.喂！Comeon!你以为你是谁？别动我的文件！喂！Whodoyouthinkyouare?!Getoutofmyfiles!Co
38、meon!F.B.I!F.B.I.!怎么回事？Whatsgoingonhere?这个家伙就这么闯进来开始翻我的文件Thisguyjustcameinhereandstartedgoingthroughmystuff枪davidGun,David.把手放到背后慢一点Putyourhandsup.Easy.david.-我有权持枪David.-1haveapermitforthat.如果我不理会我想你不会介意吧Youwon,texactlymindifIdonttakeyourwordforit.趴在桌子上Grabapieceofthedesk.我每个礼拜都会发堆声明Igetacouplepoun
39、dsofmanifestos,exposures曝光秘闻andconspiracytheorieseveryweek.我本想把这个和其他的一样扔掉垃圾堆里Probablywouldhaverecycledthisonewiththerest这时那个人打电♥话♥给我开始告诉我具体的细节thentheguycallsme,startsgivingmedetails.嗯这个声明well,themanifesto还有其他他给你的资料andanyothermaterialshemighthavesentyou现在都是证据了thosearegonnabeevidencenow我
40、需要你把它们上交somgonnaneedyoutoturnthemover.你知道我受第一修正案的保护Youknow,Idohavefirstamendmentprotections.是的但是现在它连IE规的杂♥志♥都保护不了Yeah,butthosedontevenseemtoprotectrealjournaliststhesedays.你发布磁带目录还有色情电♥话♥广♥告♥Youpublishrecordreviewsandphonesexads.你想碰碰运气么？Wanttotryyourluck?运气？
41、Myluck?我的运气就是得了些可以使我成名的故事Myluckisthatthestorythatcouldputmeonthemap但是这会导致我办公室被查封我被威胁关禁闭getsmyofficetrashedandmethreatenedwithimprisonment.嗨伙计你想出名你就可以出名Hey,man,youwantedfrontrow,yougotfrontrow.很高兴知道这公多的公民权利Somuchforthepublicsrighttoknow.billyardley独创安保公♥司♥BillYardley,prometheansecurity.
42、好的谢谢Allright,thankyou.你的持枪许可已经证实了Yourpermitchecksout但是这还是不能解释你在这里干什么butthatstilldoesntexplainwhatthehellyouredoinghere.我和graybridges药业公♥司♥签订了合同mundercontractatGraybridgepharmaceuticals.另外？And?另外我正帮助他们调查投毒案件Andmassistingthemwiththeirtamperinginvestigation.所以你就闯进编辑部把人家办公室翻个底朝天？Byroughing
43、upareporterandtossinghisoffice?我不像你们一样受到诸多限制mnotlimitedbythesameconstraintsyoupeopleare.那个家伙不想起诉Kiddoesntwanttopresscharges.你看See?我们如果再发现你接近我们的调查对象Wefindyouanywherenearourinvestigationagain我就会亲自起诉你妨碍司法公正andIwillchargeyouwithobstructionofjusticemyself明白了么？Areweclear?别忘了我的枪Dontforgetmygun.小eppes这是未删节版
44、的“投毒声明”YoungEppes,yourveryowncopyofthetoxicmanifesto.Unabridged.好吧Okay.大家都知道我不擅长英文Uh,wevequiteclearlyestablishedthatEnglishisntmyfortedon这对我来说这就是胡言乱语哦but,Don,thislookslikegibberishtome.才219页另外megan说这里面写了动机什么的It,sonly219pages,butMegansaysitgoestomotive因此我想这可能对你的信息理论有所帮助somthinkingitmightbehelpfulwith
45、yourinformationtheorything.这个权值角度很生硬Theentropyangleisabluntinstrument但是如果我能用他的企图修正一下butifIcouldjust,ifIcouldrefineitwithhisintent.看有你擅长的了吧thereyougo.Nowyoureingear.问题是我还要带毕业班还要讲课Thethingis,vegotpaperstogradeandclassestoteach.这个家伙把人们弄进医院Theguyputpeopleinthehospital而且还会继续我知道你很忙但是.andsaystheresgonnabemore,so,Iknowyourebusy,but.我明白Iunderstand.IalTy你好1.arry.Howareyou?don你好Don.mverywell,thankyou.Charles我能接你的脑子一用么？Charles,canIpickyourbrain.非常欢迎我哥哥拿剩下的部分你都可以随便拿Youremorethanwelcometowhateverscrapsmybrotherleavesbehind.“投毒声明
