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1、从没见过她nevermether.你的硬盘证明你在撒谎Yourharddrivesaysyourealiar,mccall.我们恢复了你的电子邮件，聊天室记录，整个变♥态♥的求爱过程Weverecoverede-mails,chatroomconversations-thewholesickcourtship.你是个被记录在案的性侵犯者又对少女有特别的偏爱Yourearegisteredsexoffenderwithaappetiteforteenagegirls.小区手册上都会这么说thatswhatalltheneighborhoodflyerssay.你太病态
2、了，RyanYouresick,ryan.你需要帮助Youneedhelp.第一步是要坦白Steponeisbeinghonest.对我们坦白，对你自己坦白.concreteanswers.嘿，Meganhey,megan.嘿，怎么样了？Hey.Howsitgoing?David从每个角度出击但还没有什么进展Davidshithimfromprettymucheveryangle,buthe,snothavinganyIuckinthere.而且受害者还是不肯跟我们谈Andthevictimsstillrefusingtotalk,还有我们在电脑上找到的证据不够拘捕他的，更不用说定罪了andt
3、hefileswefoundonthecomputerarentenoughtoholdhim,nevermindconvict.物证是我们理清线索唯一机会Physicalevidenceisouronlychancetoputittogether.那么，还有Charlie的不等式约束那个东西Well,theresalwayscharlie,sinequalitybounding.thing.还有Charlie的不等式约束Thereisalwayscharliesinequalityboundingthing.为了检验已定义的数据点Toexaminethedefineddatapoints.行
4、了，行了charlie,charlie,charlie.allrighallright.有两只狗拴在了院子的两个角上Therestwodogschainedtodifferentcornersofthebackyard.好链子的长度Right.-Now,thelengthsoftheirchains,还有他们各自的位置会限制他们能够接触的区域aswellastheirrespectivepositionswilllimittheareathattheycancomeintocontact.那，所以，我们也这样来处理MCCaH和受害者的关系？So,what,wedothesamethingwit
5、hmccallandthevictim?从已知的地点开始，利用袭击的时间框架Startingwiththeknownlocations,andemployingthetimeframesoftheattack.我们可以集中搜查.WecanfocusoursearcheffortsonA.趴下！趴F!staydown!Down!趴下！Getdown!好了，叫救护人员谁中枪了？谁倒下了？allright,paramedics.Whoshit?!Whosdown?!他还有呼吸hesstillbreathing.你没事吧？Youallright?你被打中了吗？Didyougethit?让我看看不，不，
6、不！1.etmesee.-No.No,no!你确定你没事儿？-我很好！Yousureyoureokay?-mokay!已经部署了SWAT,救护人员已经上路了Swatsmobilizing,theparamedicsareontheirway,有两个枪伤，没有击中重要部位还有一些人被玻璃划伤Igottwobulletwounds,they,rebothminor,andsomecutsfromtheglass.就这些？-不止Thatsit?-No.不管他是谁我觉得他达到目的了Whoeverthisguyis.Ithinkhegotwhohecamefor.我们每天都在使用数学Weallusema
7、theveryday,用来预报天气topredictweather,用来计时totelltime,管理钱财tohandlemoney.数学不只是公式和方程式Mathismorethanformulasandequations.它是逻辑合理性Itslogic.rationality.它使你的脑袋转动起来It,susingyourmind使用数字，我们可以处理很多神秘的事物tosolvethebiggestmysteriesthatweknow.数字追凶第2季第21集Numb3rsSeason02Episode21枪手的钱包告诉我们他叫AlecSchaneTheshooterswalletsays
8、hisnameisalecschane.他是个在帕萨迪那的房♥地&hearts产♥经纪人He,sarealtorfrompasadena.他进了大门，告诉他们他有一起博物馆抢劫案的消息Hewalkedinthedoorandtoldthemhehadinformationaboutamuseumrobbery.他在电梯里碰到了Labella探员抢了他的枪然后勒住他的脖子Thenhemetagentlabellaattheelevators,disarmedhimandputhiminachokehold.他怎么办到的他怎么解除一位探员的武装的？Howshedotha
9、t,howdoeshedisarmanagent?1.abella说他真的很快，而且很壮Well,alllabellacouldsaywasthathewasreallyfastandreallystrong.接着Schane把他用作人体盾牌，开了15枪Andthenschaneusedhimasahumanshieldandheletoff15rounds.但只死了一个？Andonlyonefatality?对，RyanMcCall那个性侵犯嫌疑人Yeah,ryanmccall,thepredicatesexoffender.SWAT小组说可以重新进去了Swatteamgavetheall-
10、cleartoreenterthebuilding,但证据收集组想要几个小时来检直一下审讯室butevidenceresponsewantsafewhourstocheckoutthebullpen.行，为什么不随便找个地方Allright.Whydontyoujustgrabwhateverspaceyoucan,开始找找Schane和性侵犯者之间的关系，好吧？startworkingontheconnectionbetweenschaneandthesexoffender.Allright?嗨，Charlie,嗨Hey,charlie.Hey.你怎么样了？还好吧？Howyoudoing?Y
11、ouallright?我很好，我很好mfine.mfine.大家都怎么样了？Howiseverybody?你知道，我是说看考虑一下，我会说我们很幸运Well,youknow,Imean.look,allthingsconsideredj,dsaywegotofflucky.幸运1.ucky.他差点杀了所有人，我不明白你怎么能天天起床来应付这一切Henearlykilledallofus-Idontseehowyougetupanddealwiththiseveryday.其实，不是每天都会遭枪击的来吧，去喝点咖啡吧Eh,youknow.Idontgetshotateveryday.Comeon
12、,11getyousomecoffee.不行，我得走了，我应该回学校了我该干点活了NOjgottagoJshouldgobacktoschool.Ishouldgetsomeworkdone.Schane先生？mr.Schane?SChane先生，你听得见我说话吗？Mr.Schane,canyouhearme?我想知道你为什么要杀RyanMcCalldliketoknowwhyyoushotryanmccall.他袭击你女儿了吗？Didheassaultyourdaughter?（律师）1.awyer.Schane夫人？Mrs.Schane?你以前见过这个男人吗？Haveyoueverseen
13、thismanbefore?没，我以前从未见过他No,veneverseenhimbefore.那你呢，Samantha?Howaboutyou,samantha?没有？No?你知道为什么你丈夫会这么做吗？Doyouhaveanyideawhyyourhusbandwoulddothis?我还不能相信他竟然那么做了Well,Istilldontbelievethathedid.他说什么了？Whatdidhesay?他想要一个律师Heaskedforalawyer.那我也不应该跟你们说话，对吧？ThenIshouldnttalktoyoueither,shouldI.SChane夫人，你丈夫在一
14、幢联邦大楼里杀了一个人Mrs.Schaneyourhusbandkilledamaninsideofafederalbuilding.我们只是想知道原因Werejusttryingtounderstandwhy.我不能帮你们理解连我自己都不懂的事！Well,IcanthelpyouunderstandwhatIdon,t!另外如果他不想和你们合作Andifhedoesntwanttocooperatewithyou.我相信他Itrusthim.还有，那么，DOn和我在说话谈论不等式约束And,so,donandiaresimplytalking.talkingaboutinequalitybo
15、unding.然后，呃.然后我听到玻璃破碎的声音And,uh.andthenIheardbreakingglass.而且一颗子弹从我的头边滑了过去andabulletgoespastmyhead.人们在乱喊Theresnoise.血花四溅Theresblood.一片混乱-混沌Chaos.-Chaos.“混沌”假定了一个可观测或可测量的系统chaospresupposesanobservableormeasurablesystem.一个确定的方程它的解对初始条件的依赖性很高Adeterministicequationwithanoutcomesensitivetoinitialcondition
16、s.我在说俗话，CharlesIwasspeakinginthevernacular,Charles.还有，你知道我们开始了一个有点玄虚的讨论And,yet,youknow,wehavestumbledintoaratherloftydiscussionhere.因为有人认为人类的暴♥力♥行为是对基本状态的一种反映Becauseonecouldarguethatviolenceonthehumanscaleisreflectiveofafundamentalstate,就像跟亚原子粒子的神奇碰撞asevidentfromthemagnificentcollision
17、sofsubatomicparticles,和具有戏剧性的星系相撞一样显然theoperaticclashesofgalaxies.那应该听起来能让人安心吗，Larry?Isthatsupposedtobereassuring,larry?从宏观角度来讲，是的，绝对的Onthemacrolevel,yes,absolutely.但微观上来说，可能就不是了Thoughmicrocosmically,perhapsnotsomuch.DOn一笑了之，就好像是办公室里可笑之事似的Donlaughsitofflikeitssomefunnythingthathappenedattheoffice.这是
18、种应对机制，CharlieIt,sacopingmechanism,charlie.我指，他每天都跟暴♥力♥打交道所以他带着幽默感去处理它Imean,heseesviolencedaily,soheprocessesitwithhumor.说到这儿，你处理得怎么样了？Speakingofwhich,howareyoucoping?为什么每个人都要这么问为什么？Whyis.everyonesaskingmethat,why?因为有一点创伤后心理压力是很正常的如果不是不可避免的Becausealittlebitofpost-traumaticstressisnatura
19、ljfnotinevitable.还有你这么早就回来工作了我以为Andforyoutoreturntoworkthisearly,Ithinkis.啊，伙计！你看，伙计，嘿ah,man!Look,guys,hey,呃，我得集中精神干这个uh,Ineedtoconcentrateonthis.所以，你们能不能，呃So,canyouguys,uh.好的，行，没问题yeah.Okay.Ofcourse.好吧，谢谢，谢谢Okay.Thankyou.Thankyou.听着，Charlie,如果你想找个人谈谈.好，非常感谢你的关心1.isten,charlie,ifyouwanttotalk.-yes,y
20、ourconcernisappreciated;真的是，我只是请让我工作itreallyis.Ijust.allowmetowork.Please.不no.即使Schane认识McCall也没有公开记录Ifschaneknewmccall,there,snopublicrecordofit.那她女儿呢？-她对他的照片也没反应Whataboutthedaughter?-Shedidntreacttohispicture.而且也没有网上联络McCall的典型作案手法Andtheresnointernetcontact-mccalsusualM.0.我开始考虑可能另有原因mstartingtothi
21、nkitmightbesomethingentirelydifferent.就是对FBI的袭击Justanattackagainstthefbi.他是所在家庭教师协会的主席Heschairmanofhispta.找不到比AlecSchane更典型的郊区父亲了Youcouldntfindamoretypicalsuburbandadthanalecschane.是啊，但是没有抑郁症的记录工作上也没有行为的突然变化Yeah,buttheresnorecordofdepression,andthere,snosuddenchangesofbehavioratwork.好，这是他没有的，所以Allri
22、ght,thatswhathedoesnthave,so.唔，我可以告诉你他有非常精湛的技术Wenjcantellyouwhathedoeshaveissomeserioustechnique.对，他移♥动♥很快，我完全按照五角大楼教科书上那样做的Yeah,hesfast.Ipulledthatmovestraightfromthequanticoplaybook.嗯，他以一个完美无瑕的踢腿动作回击Yeah,andhecounteredwithaflawlesslyexecutedlegshoot.我是指，那可是个经典的自卫招式1mean,thatsaclassic
23、self-defensemove.对，很明显他受过功夫训练Yeah,hesobviouslygotsomemartial-artstraining.那么，的确受过训练带着能解除探员武装的自信走进来？Well,thatssomeserioustraining.Comeinherewiththeconfidencetodisarmanagent?AlecSchane曾在这儿学习过well,alecschanewasastudenthere.这是怎么回事？Whatisthisabout?是关于法式踢腿术Itsaboutasavatekick.法式踢腿术，然后是裸绞的组合技Asavatekickfol
24、lowedbyahadaka-jimecombination.虎穴是唯一教授这种技巧的流派Koketsuistheonlydisciplinethatteachesthiscombination,全国只有这么一家虎穴道馆，师♥傅♥andyoursistheonlykoketsudojointhecounty.Sensei.你在哪儿学习？Wheredyoustudy?我在Y教授以色列格斗术IteachkravmagaattheY.我参观过您的自卫术展览AndIveseenyourexhibitionsonself-defense.AlecSchaneAlecschan
25、e.三年之内就拿到了棕腰带他怎么了？Brownbeltinlessthanthreeyears.Whathappened?他抢了一位联邦探员的枪击中了三个人，杀死了一个Hedisarmedafederalagentandshotthreepeople,onefatally.显然，利用了在这里学到的技巧ApparentlylUsingtechniquesthathelearnedhere.Alec不仅仅功夫高他还非常关心道场Alecisntjustagoodfighter,hesadedicatedmemberofthedojo.他给的积极的态度感染了每个班Hebringsapositiveat
26、titudetoeveryclass.但最近你有没他态度上有所改变？Andhaveyouseenanychangeinthatattitudeoflate?跟Kurt有点问题Therewasaproblemwithkurt.Kurt是谁？Who,skurt?年纪挺大的家伙，来参加了儿节课就退出了Olderguy,cameinforafewclasses,thendroppedout.他们俩一开始看起来关系不错但一个礼拜之后Thetwoofthemseemedfriendlyatfirsbutafteraweek,AIeC对他冷淡下来，甚至有些敌意alecwentcold,hostileeven
27、.我猜这就是为什么Kurt不再来了Isuspectthatthatswhykurtstoppedshowingup.你记得他们又没有一起练习这种组合技？Doyouhappentorememberiftheyddoneanyworkonthiscombination?很多次Kurt报名是专来学解除武装的技巧AIotKurtsignedupspecificallytolearndisarmingtechniques.你能找出他的地址吗？从信♥川♥卡♥或收据之类的？Doyouhaveanaddressonthisguy,fromacreditcardrece
28、iptmaybe?让我查查档案，稍等1.etmecheckmyfiles.Excuseme.在Y教以色列格斗术？Kravmagaatthey?好吧，你知道，如果你想要逮捕比你重100多磅的人Okay,youknow,you,regoingtoarrestpeoplethatareahundredpoundsheavierthanyou,你得去学点技巧youregoingtoneedtolearnsomehobbies.你知道，如果最近他在跟叫Kurt的练习这种组合技Youknow,ifhesbeenrehearsingthiscombinationwiththiskurtguy.这说明还有人有
29、能力发动第二次袭击thatmeanstheresanotherpersonouttherewhoscapableOflaunchingasecondattack.也许是次更大的Maybeabiggerattack.这幅素描是根据柔道教练对Kurt最大限度的描述得来的Thissketchisbasedonthejujitsuinstructorsbestdescriptionofkurt.体重180磅左右，有轻微口音可能是德裔，或荷兰裔，他不知道About180pounds,slightaccenmaybegerman,maybedutch.Hedidntseemtoknow.由于他可能再次策划
30、相似的袭击Becauseofthepossibilitythathemightbeplanningasimilarattack,南加州的各个执法机构都已提高警戒WehaveeverylawenforcementagencyinsouthernCaliforniaonhighalert.KurtWeiland是个假名他给道场的地址也是假的Iseeinyournoteskurtweilandwasabogusnameandtheaddresshegavethedojo.Schane的情况已经稳定下来了但他仍然不肯开口Schane,soutofcriticalcondition,buthesstil
31、lrefusingtotalk.我说，如果MCCan性侵犯了SChane身边的人Youknowjfmccallhadsexuallyabusedsomeoneclosetoschanez我想他会跟我们或者新闻界说的，你懂吧？Ithinkhedbetalkingtousortalkingtothepress,youknow?他会为他的行为辩护的Hedbethrowingoutajustificationforhisactions.你知道他花了两周教别人相同的技巧Youknow,hespenttwoweeksteachingthesesametechniquestosomebodyelse.我觉得
32、McCall不是目标1dontthinkmccallwasthetarget.好吧，伙计们，听着，弹道检验刚刚检测出杀了MCCaH的那颗子弹Allright,guys,IookBallisticsjustmatchedthebulletthatkilledmccall.跟你的枪相配.toyourgun.是的，美国犯罪协会让你限制工作直到他们调查清楚，很遗憾Yeah,exactly.Soascwantsyouonrestricteddutyuntiltheycangettheshootingteamtotakealookatthis.msorry.Don,很明显是事故，是跳弹或什么的当时子弹到处
33、在飞Don,it,sobviouslyanaccidentaricochetorsomething.Bulletswereflyingallovertheplace.没关系，没关系限制工作It,sallrightjtsallright.Restrictedduty.就是不能出外勤直到他们说你没问题做次精神评估之类的Justmeansnofielddutyuntiltheycanclearyou-doapsychiatricreview.thatsortofthing.你知道，精神评估完全是走过场的Andyouknow,apsychiatricreviewistotallystandardpro
34、cedure.你干这个很长时间了我们都做过的Youdothislongenough,weveallbeenthroughone.就是，你该好好利用请几天假，去冲冲浪，什么的Exactly.Youshouldtakeadvantage.Takeafewdaysoff,gosurfing,whatever.行了，听着，我很感激谢谢你们Allright,look,guys,Iappreciateit;thankyou.但如果他还逍遥法外，他可能正在策划另一次袭击，我会呆在这儿Butifthisguysstillouthere,hemaybeplanninganotherattack-mgoingto
35、behere.你需要大家一起办这起案子我就在我的桌子旁，哪儿也不去Youneedeverybodyonthiscase.llbeonmydesk.mnotgoinganywhere.我们就假定Kurt在策划另一起袭击案Weregoingwiththeassumptionthatthiskurtisplanninganotherattack我知道，但，听着Iknow,but,look,这次，我不明白数学怎么能帮你thisone,Ijustdontseehowmymathcanhelpyou.问题在这儿：我们必须得明白第一次袭击的原因Thatsthething:Wegottamakesenseof
36、thefirstone.如果我们知道Schane的动机或许那能让我们了解Kurt1对吧?Wegetschanesmotive,maybethatlltellussomethingaboutkurright?你记得你用过的方法？Yourememberthatworkyoudidwithpaths?什么，组合优化？Whatcombinatorialoptimization?对，最小生成树，货郎担问题Sure,theresminimumspanningtree,thetravelingsalesmanproblem.哪一个也不适用于这项分♥析♥Neitherofwhich
37、areapplicabletothisanalysis.那么，分♥析♥潜在受害者的影响力怎么样？Well,howaboutapplyingweightstothepotentialvictims?好吧，就像你评估潜在威胁那样只不过要倒过来RightJikewhatyoudidwiththethreatanalysisbutinreverse.看看能不能算出谁是指定目标Seeifwecanfigureoutwhotheintendedtargetwas.如果确实有个目标Iftherewasatargetatall.1.arry,过来1.arry,comeoverher
38、e.告诉我，你看枪手路线像是布朗运动吗？Tellme,doestheshooterspathlookbrowniantoyou?嗯，随机的，肯定是，应该是马尔科夫但是布朗运动？Well,stochastic,sure,markovian,maybe,butbrownian?我看看1.etmesee.等等.我看见这个了Wait,wait,wait,wait,Idoseethis.看到什么了？什么？Seewhat?What?想象一个台球桌Pictureapooltable.白球一直在运动withacueballinconstantmotion.白球，我们的枪手Thecueball-ourshoot
39、er-会一直作直线运动直到碰到障碍物isfollowingastraightpathuntilithitsanobstacle另外一个球，或者边界，就是球台anotherballoraboundary,therail.然后它开始新的直线运动直到碰到另一个障碍Andthenitsetsoffinanewstraightpath,untilithitsanotherobstacle.办公室就是球台里面的人就是台球Thetableistheoffice,theballisthepeopleinit?对，布朗运动轨道暗示着随机初始方向然后是随机方向改变Yeah,abrownianpathwouldin
40、dicateaninitiallyrandomdirectionfollowedbyrandomdirectionchange,说明他没在向某个特定的点移♥动♥whichmeanshewasntmovingtowardanyparticularpoint.或向某个特定的人射击Orshootingatanyparticularperson.实际上，造成伤亡可能不是他的目的Infact,inflictinginjurymightnothaveevenbeenhisintention.如果我可以研究一下他那漫无目的的射击我也许可以解释他的动机IfIcanexamineth
41、ediffusion,Imaybeabletoshedlightonhismotive.战略室又可以使用了你可以看看监控录像，怎么样？Wegotthewarroomupandrunningagain.Youcanlookatthesecurityfootage.Howsthat?我去不了市区Icantgodowntown.不是现在，我我被夹在上课和认知工作之间Notnow.l.minbetweenclassesandmycognitiveemergencework.Charlie,我们在谈论另一次袭击Charlie,weretalkingaboutanotherattack.Don,你没注意听
42、我说我可以帮你，好吧？Don,yourenotlistening.msayingIcanworkonyourcase,okay?我可以在这儿干，我可以在家干Icanworkhere,andIcanworkathome.还有.任何你有的发给我就好了And.anythingyouhave,sendittome.他看起来不大好Hedoesntseemgood,huh?虽然嘴上不承认Welbproteststothecontrary,昨天的事似乎对他的行为有些影响yesterday,seventsseemtohaveaffectedhisdemeanor.对，一颗子弹那么近地擦过去你的内心会有所改变Y
43、eah,welabulletmissesyoubythatlittle,yougetanewlookinsideyourownhead.听着，我明白，我只是觉得你得对情绪的影响1.ook,Iunderstand.!justthinkyouneedtoacknowledgetheemotionalimpactofthat.是啊Yeah.他不会有事的，对吗？Hellbeallright.Right?我提高了这幅截图的分辨率Ihadthisscreen-captureenhanced.Schane可能不喜欢Kurt可在袭击当天早上，就是他开车送他的Schanemaynothavelikedkurt,
44、butthat,sexactlywhodrovehimthemorningoftheattack.柔道教练确认了他的身份HadhisI.D.Confirmedbythejujitsuinstructor.车牌追踪到一家Motorco汽车租赁公♥司♥Andtheplatesonthecarcamebacktoamotorcorentalcarcompany,两小时之前在停车场被偷了stolenoffthelottwohoursbefore.他甚至都没换车牌？知道他们不会及时地登上被盗车辆名单？Hedidntevenchangetheplates?Knewitwould
45、ntshowuponthehotsheetsintime?1.I经发出全境通告了，希望我们走运Putoutanapb,hopewellgetlucky.他干的活比整个FBI都多Getsmoredoneathisdeskthantheentirefbi.无论怎样，面部识别系统没出结果anyway,thatfacialrecognitionsoftwarecameupwithnothing,所以我要去趟当地的执法部门看看能不能确认这个人的身份somgoingtogooutwidetolocallawenforcement,seeifwecantgetanI.D.Onthisguy.他挺难受的我们都
46、知道他会被排除嫌疑的He,stakingitprettyhard.Weallknowhesgoingtogetcleared.真是糟糕的一天Hehashadaprettybadday.总起来说，他还在硬挺着AndIthink,allinall,heshangingprettytough.我记得买♥♥这些东西Irememberbuyingthose.我可没想到二十年后你才会开始玩这个1.ittledidIsuspectthatitwouldtakeyou20yearstoplaywiththem.我搞不清楚这个路线Icantmakesenseofthispath,所以我想重建办公室的三维模型会给我点灵感soIfiguredreconstructingtheofficewithathree-dimensionalmodelmight
