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1、专门调查披露社会罪案的记者BonnieParksIt,sbeennearlyaweek被宣告失踪sinceveteraninvestigativereporterBonnieParks已经一周时间了wasreportedmissing.现在FBI正式参与到NowtheFBIhasjoinedtheinvestigation对她的失踪所展开的调直intoherdisappearance.联邦人员尚未能判断该案牵涉到什么Bureauofficialshavebeentight-lippedabout声称现在作出评论是为时过艮的theirinvolvement,sayingitstoosoontoc
2、omment.目前为止Parks的生死仍是一个谜So,fornow.Parkswhereaboutsandfateremainamystery.保安员发现她的车已经遗弃在这好几天了Thesecurityguardcalledintheplatesafterherealized打电♥话&hearts球合她没人回应thecarhadbeenhereacoupleofdays.监控摄像头的录像记录证实Checkedoutsurveillancevideo.BoonieParks周二上午十点零八分她曾经出现过ItshowsBonnieParksenteredthelotat10:08Tu
3、esdaymorning.你确定是她吗？Arewesureitwasher?毫无疑问据我所知她当时是单独人的Noquestion.FromwhatIcantell,shewasalone.站在我旁边的是CharlesEppes教授JoiningmeisProfessorCharlesEppes,CalSci大学的数学家FBI常任顾问aCalScimathematicianwhofrequentlyconsultsfortheFBI.你是来这里协助FBI寻找BonnieParks的吗？AreyouheretohelptheFBIfindBonnieParks?目前我还不能透露任何信息Youkno
4、wwhat?mnotatlibertytosay.调查仍在进行中Itsanongoinginvestigation.你兄长特别探员DonEppes负责这个案件的调查工作YourbrotherSpecialAgentDonEppesistheleadinvestigatoronthecase.看来你是有备而来的Youvedoneyourhomework.我会尽我所能协助这次调查匚作Uh,IhopetohelpinwhateverwayIcan.希望能直出她到底发生什么事了Hopefully,wecanfindoutwhathappenedtoher.我们盘问过店主雇员Interviewedsho
5、pownersandemployees.还有一些从电视上认出她的人SomerememberherfromTV,但没人确切地记得看到过她butnooneactuallyremembersseeingher.监控摄像头没有拍到她进入的情形Surveillancecamerasneverpickedherupentering,所以她根本没到过商场soshedidntevenmakeitintothemall.在这类型的失踪人口案件里Inamissingpersonscaselikethis我们可以运用一些数字分♥析♥方法there,sanynumberOfanalyses
6、wecanperform.例如我们知道她的车子Forinstance,weknowMissParkscarwasrecovered是在SanMarino商场被发现attheSanMarinoMall.根据运输流量模型Basedontraffic-flowpatterns,我可以构造从该区域离开的可能性通道Icanconstructaprobableegresspathawayfromthatarea.也许她被跟踪或去见线人Maybeshewasfollowed,meetingasource.我们只知道她经常出入于停车场Yeah.Imean,allweknowissherolledinthepa
7、rkinglot周二早上十点零八分Tuesdaymorningat10:08;她停泊好自己的车子sheparkedhercar.然后就人间蒸发了Thenshevanished.我们都知道Parks小姐在工作中WeknowthatMissParks-throughherwork-树敌甚多madeanumberofenemies.我们可以对每个敌对者作出评估Wecanmathematicallyevaluateeachofthoseenemies判定他们可能会采用的恐吓方式todeterminewhatthreattheymightpose.但现在仍处于初期的搜集数据阶段Butit,sstille
8、arlyandstillgatheringdata.你参与调查会否成为Isyourpresenceheregoingtobethedifference成功解救BonnieParks的关键呢？betweenfindingornotfindingBonnieParks?我当然希望找到她如果那是你所指的1hopetofindher,ifthatswhatyoumean.我们有一个基本的规定It,sacardinalrule:不能讨论任何正在进行中的调查youdontdiscussanongoinginvestigation.Don我认为他并没有Don,Idon,treallythink透露过多关厂这
9、个案件的细节hedisclosedthatmuchaboutthecase.爸副署长不会这样认为的Well,d,theAssistantDirectorthinksdifferent.我真的很抱歉mreallysorry.已经不重要了Yeah,itdoesntmatter,Charlie你感到很抱歉但损害已经造成了Charlie,youresorry;thedamageisdone.你上哪去？Whereyougoing?回大学去做我因为要帮助DonToCalScitodotheworkthatIdidntdo而没做的事becauseIwashelpingDon.他不是你手下的探员He,snot
10、oneofyouragents.你知道的不是吗？Youknowthat,right?忘了它吧那并不代表什么Forgetaboutit.Itsnothing.算了吧笨蛋Thanks,dopey.我开车的时候并不一定需要光线Idontreallyneedtoseewhilemdriving.好吧算了让你先过去吧Allright,fine.Youknowwhat?Goahead.Goahead.你想干嘛？Whatdoyouwant?数字追凶第4季第11集我是来求助的Icomebeseechingly.为了令我的办公室不再一团糟Inmyefforttoridmyofficeofclutter,我可能把
11、重要的东西都派出去了Imayhavedispensedwithcertainstapleitems,包括Fisher&Boyd的副本mycopyofFisher&Boydbeingoneofthem.你想借我的吧Youwanttoborrowmine.系合你Here.嗯Ah.嗨LarryOh,hey,Larry.嗨CharlieHey.Charlie.你昨天晚上是在这里睡的？Didyousleepherelastnight?嗯是的Uh.yeah.我不知道你有这么多工作要做Ididntrealizeyouhadsomuchwork.我应该来帮你的Iwouldhavehelped.不是工作的缘故I
12、twasn,twork.我觉得ithinkIwaskindof我昨晚大概是被人跟踪了beingfollowedlastnight.什么意思？在哪？Whatdoyoumean?Where?在我开车过来的途中Inmycaronthewayhere.可能是我太多疑了mprobablyjustbeingparanoid.也许你只是不小心挡在了别人的车子前面Maybeyouaccidentallycutsomebodyoffintraffic.我的意思是你开车的技术实在不怎么样Imean,yourdrivingisquestionable.不是我驾驶技术的问题Theresnothingwrongwith
13、mydriving.所有车一起跟在你的车子后面鸣着喇叭Sothechorusofcarhornsthatfollowsinyourwake.那是什么？一种自发的行为吗？Whatisthat?Aspontaneousphenomenon?呃你和Don谈过这件事情了吗？Um,didyoutalktoDon?他怎么i的？Whatdidhesay?Don-Don.这个时间我本应在FBI的办公室里msupposedtobeattheFBIrightnow.这真是“太好了”Ah,great.又是一件让我挨训的事Thisisonemorething-somethingtogivemecrapabout.Ch
14、arlie一切还好吧？Charles,iseverythingallright?我们所采访的六家墨西哥药房♥Despiteassurancesfromallsix全部都有提供虚假医疗承诺的嫌疑oftheMexicanpharmacswevisited,我们的调查发现ourinvestigationfoundthatnearlyhalf里面近半数提供美国人的药物ofallthedrugsdispensedtoAmericanpatients不是没有标签的过期的wereeithermislabeled,expired就是完全没有效果的orplacebo,如此丧尽天良的医药诈骗是会造成
15、很严重adangeroushealthfraudthatcouldhaveserious,甚至致命性结果的evenfatalconsequences.这个女人相当有胆识Thewomansgotguts.过去六年里她儿乎扳倒了所有人Inthelastsixyears,she,stakenonjustabouteverybody:墨西哥黑♥手♥党♥收受贿赂的巡逻探员theMexicanMafia,crookedBorderPatrolagents,坏警♥察♥法官市长badcops,judges,mayors.所以她有很多敌人”S
16、oshesgotplentyofenemies.我已经列出28间公♥司♥和个人Yeah,Icounted28companiesorindividuals全部都有动机向她报复whohavereasontogoafterherforrevenge.他们不是入狱付一大笔罚金Imean,eitherwenttojail,forcedtopayhugefines,就是被公♥司♥开除orkickedoutofoffice.我想我有办法帮你缩窄范围IthinkIcanfindawaytonarrowyourchoices.当然你在采访里提到过Yeah,
17、youmentionedthatinyourinterview.对啊夹在其他事里边嘛Yeah,amongotherthings.这个方法叫做非对称风险评估Uh,itscalledanasymmetricthreatassessment我们之前已经做过风险评估rWevedonethreatassessmentsbefore,但我觉得我们可以用这个方法来分♥析♥butIthink1canusethisonetoanalyze还有计算动机-Charlie但是andcalculatemotive.ButCharlie,假设这28个嫌疑人都在追求同一件事all28ofthes
18、uspectsarepresumablyafterthesamething:报仇对不对？that,srevenge,right?是的没错Yeah,that,strue,但每个嫌疑人报仇欲望的强烈程度不一样buteachsuspectismotivatedtoadifferentdegree.你知道游乐园那个游戏吗？Youknowthatcarnivalgame用水枪向小丑的嘴里射水whereyoushootasquirtgun灌满气球intoaclown,smouthtofillupaballoon?非对称风险评估法可以让我们衡量Anasymmetricthreatassessmentallo
19、wsus每个嫌疑人动机的强烈程度tomeasurethefactorsthatfeedmotiveineachsuspect原理就和游戏里衡量justlikethemechanisminthegamemeasurestheflowofwater每个小丑口里的水量一样intoeachclownsmouth.与嫌疑人Itdoesntmatter是否有同样的动机无关ifthesuspectsallhavethesamemotive.我们需要做的是Wejusthavetofind找出动机已经强烈到了临界点的个案theonecaseinwhichmotivehasbeenfedtothepoint那才是
20、嫌疑人的爆发点wherethesuspecteventuallypops.这还只是考虑对BonnieParks有Andthatonlyconsidersthesuspectsthatposeathreat威胁的嫌疑人而已toBonnieParks.还有一点也很重要Justasimportantarethepeople就是那些害怕她或是被她威胁到的人whoareafraidofher,whoshethreatens.你是指Youmeananyone她在调杳的每一个有事隐瞒的人？shesinvestigatingwhohassomethingtohide.我们知道她正调查什么吗？-暂时还不清楚Do
21、weknowwhatshewasworkingon?No,notyet.我们会和她的制♥作♥人开个会议Wehaveameetingsetwithherproducer.好那样不错Allright,good.你知道要做什么Well,youknowwhattodo我们也知道该做什么andweknowwhattodo,让我们分头行动吧soletsgettoit.你和我们一齐走吗？Youcoming?来啦Yeah.Yeah,yeah.把9/16寸的扳手递给我好吗？Handmethenine-sixteenths,willya?系合你Thereyougo.嘿怎么啦？Hey,w
22、hatsgoin,on?院子里的过滤泵Ah,thefilterpumpsbeenmaking最近经常发出怪声somehorriblesoundslately.我很奇怪你完全没有留意到msurprisedyouhadntnoticed.不是的我留意到了就是我太忙了Yeah,no,Idid.Ijustbeenbusy.嗨Charlie-Ray?Hey,Charlie.Ray?你居然叫一个大学终身教授Yeah,andyoucalledatenureduniversityprofessor来给你修鲤鱼池tocomeandfixthekoipond.别急你老爸前几天Relax,yourdadmentio
23、nedthetrouble在课后提到了这事theotherdayafterclass,我自愿来帮忙的你知道我不介意做脏活Ivolunteered.YouknowIliketogetmyhandsdirty.看来是底垫破了1.ookslikethebearingsareshot.真的？Really?更换它们不会很难吧？Well,they,reeasytoreplace,huh?不难不过你大概会想换个新的Yeah,butyoumightwanttogetanewpump.旧成这个样子熬不了多久了Oldonelikethis,itsinefficient.声音响得跟南美的政客一样Gobblespow
24、erlikeaSouthAmericandictator.实际上你可以做点别的事情Matteroffact,couplethingsyoucoulddo例如在这个旧房♥子里多种些植物togreenthisoldplaceupalittle.长远来说能省点钱Probablysavemoneyinthelongrun,还可以为绿化地球做点贡献dotheplanetafavoratthesametime.你在说什么呢？Whatareyoutalkingabout?这是Charlie的事了我们已经做好了自己那部分的工作Charliedrivesahybrid.We,realreadydo
25、ingourpart说实话Totellyouthetruth,yeah.我的确有考虑那样做Itsbeensomethingvebeenthinkingabout.算了吧房♥子还是好好的No,comeon.Thehouseiffine.我的意思是它虽然很旧但还能用Imean,itsold,butitworks,youknow,mostly.最重要的是很像我Imean,itsalotlikeme.你看出来了吧？她很少在这里Well,youcanseeshehardlyeverusesit.那她在哪办公？Wheredoesshework?大概是家里吧我也不清楚Athomeprobabl
26、y.1dontknow.她在调查进行的时候总是很神秘的Shesalwaysrealsecretiveduringherinvestigations.她会独自工作直到拍摄开始Shewouldworkalonguntilitwastimetostartshooting.那你不知道她最近在调有什么？Soyoudontknowwhoshecurrentlywasinvestigating?完全没有头绪No.那她私生活方面呢？Howaboutsomeoneinherpersonallife?有没有什么可疑的人是值得一提的？Isthereanybodytherewhomightbeabletotellus
27、?“假如”她有私生活Ifshehadapersonallife.事实是这样的Heresthething.Bonnie无时无刻不在工作Bonniewasalwaysjustaboutherwork.她是相当专业的Shewasanabsoluteprofessional,但我从来没有见过她去和别人交往butIneversawhertrytomakefriends甚至还不让人对自己产生好感oreventrytobeliked.101空降师”IOlstAirborne.我曾经和这样的人一起在阿富汗作战IusedtobunkwithsomeoftheseguysinAfghanistan.那是她弟弟的T
28、hatsheryoungerbrothers.他在伊♥拉♥克♥被杀HewaskilledinIraq.那电脑呢？Whataboutacomputer?她工作时有随身携带手提电脑吗？Shehavealaptopmaybeshetakeswithhertowork?Bonnie从来都不用电脑Bonniedoesntusecomputers.她对电脑的安全性亳不信赖Shedoesnttrustthattheyaresecure.所有事情都是用手写的Soshewriteseverythingoutbyhand.她的方式比较传统Shesoldschool.是啊我
29、们也是老传统Yeah,whichmeanswegooldschool.看看这个Checkthisout.上面有印痕Icanseeindentations.你能把上面的字还原吗？Canyoumakeanythingout?我不行不过实验室里的人应该能办到No,butmaybesomebodyatthelabcan.你觉得在Bonnie身上发生什么事了？WhatdoyouthinkhappenedtoBonnie?我的意思是Imean,你觉得她还有生还的可能吗？doyouthinkshe,sstillalive?我真的很想偷偷潜到你身后大喊一声吓唬你Ireally,reallywantedtosn
30、eakuponyouandyell,Boo!不过此时此刻这样做ButIthoughtitmightnotbe大概不是个好主意thebestidearightnow.幸好你没那么做Yeah,Iappreciatetherestraint.也许我会呢Youhavenoidea.这个就是风险评估？Thisthreatassessment?是的为Don的失踪案件做的Yeah,itsforDonsmissingreporter.正在运算不过我还在修正算法It,srunning,butIkeepreworkingthealgorithm.N的变量很大嘛It,saprettylargevalueforN.她
31、的仇人太多了Shehadalotofenemies.为什么Alan在打赌WhydoesAlankeepgrumbling赌Ray会不会把这房♥子毁掉？aboutRaytryingtoruinthehouse?我也不晓得Youknow,mnotsureRay只是说过becauseallRayssaying想把这个房♥子改造一下isthathewantstomakethehouse变得更环保alittlemoreeco-friendly把栅格去掉一点所以andgetoffthegridalittle,so.Alan反对那样做？AndAlansagainstthat?难道
32、他不是最拥戴六十年代生活方式的嬉皮士吗?Wasnthethebiggestactivisthippieinthe60s?市政计划是讲求效率的Cityplanningsallaboutefficiency.真是完全想不通Itdoesntmakeanysense.Charlie.Charlie.你的电脑出结果了Yourcomputersdone.噢Oh.这就是了Allright我要把这个拿系合Don看mgonnatakethisovertoDon.我和你一起去好吗？Youwantmetoridewithyou?不用啦No.你确定？Areyousure?我能照顾好自己的llbefinebymysel
33、f.那是什么？停车场吗？Whatsthat,theparkinglot?是的Yep.她失踪的那天Everythingthatenteredorleftthemall每辆进出这个商场的车themorningshepulledin.每个我能看到的停车票我都在杳AnylicenseplateIcanreadImrunning.太多了吧Thatsalotofplates.是的她有可能被藏在这些车子的任何一辆里Yeah.Sofar,shecouldbestashedinanyoneofthese.实验室的人在还原我们那天在办公室找到的东西Theguysatthelabhadnoproblempullin
34、goff进展顺利whatwasonthosepadsWefoundinheroffice.那些东西很有意思ItwaskindOfinteresting.你看一下Takealookatit.呃这只是数字嘛Its,Um,itsjustnumbers.满满两页的数字Therestwofullpagesofit.是吗？Yeah?它们代表什么？有头绪吗？Anytheorieswhattheyare?可能是某种代码Couldbesomekindofcode.也许我们应该留给Charlie来处理MaybeweshouldgetCharlieonthat.没错我打个电♥话&hearts系合他Ye
35、ah,allright.llgivehimacall.也许我们一开始就弄错方向了Maybewe,relookingatthiswholethingwrong.大部分同类型的失踪案件Mostofthetimewithdisappearanceslikethis,right,都是冲着个人来的italwayscomesbacksomethingpersonal.配偶离异配偶Youknow,yougotaspouse,ex-spouse,情绪激动的男友yougotanangryboyfriend.这就是问题所在了Yeah,butthatsthething.我查过她的私生活里完全没有其他人存在的痕迹1m
36、ean,1checked.Theresjust,theresnooneinherlife.和其他人没关联Thereisn,tanybody.和最后一次看到她的人有关对吗？Thisisthelasttimeanyonesawher,right?她现在在哪呢？Whereisshenow?你好？Hello?我需要你来看一些数字1.ook,Ineedyoutotakealookatsomenumbers.好的我已经在去你办公室的路上了Yeah,yeah,monmywaydownthererightnow.我刚刚完成我的风险分♥析♥Ijustfinishedmythreata
37、nalysis.真的？有什么发现吗？Yeah?Anything?暂时没有什么有价值的东西No.No,nothingunusual.没有突出的嫌疑人Noonestandsout.真的？她扳倒的那么多人都没有异常？Really?Ofallthepeopleshetookdown?你在哪？Whereareyou?Charlie?Charlie?嘿听到我说话吗？你在听我说吗？Hey,canyouhearme?Areyouthere?当然呃抱歉Yeah,uh,youknow,msorry.我就到llbetherein,大概15分钟好吗？like,15minutes,okay?好的-好的一会见Allrig
38、ht.Allrighty,bye.不！No!哦上帝啊！Oh,God!嘿你没事吧?！Hey,youallright?!我没事我没事mallright.Itsallright.你该去看看大夫我不管他怎久说Well,youregonnaseeadoctor.ImeanIdon,tcarewhathesays.相信我我不想去做身体♥检♥查Believeme,Imnotgonnarefuseanymedicalattention.就是有点痛Thisactuallykindasmarts.让我看看1.etmesee.对了CharIie你知不知道是谁Hey,Charlie,you
39、haveanyidea要对你下手？whomighthavetriedtodothis?我根本就没看到他们长什么样Icouldntseethemthatwell.你好好想想Thinkaboutitforasecond.校内有什么异常的举动么？Anybodyhangingoutweirdoncampus?可能在你的新书签售会上？Maybeatanyofyourbooksignings?你是否有挂掉哪位学生Didyouflunkanystudents或是做了什么激怒了他们以致对你下此狠手？orgetinanyfightswithanyofthem,anythinglikethat?不我的学生绝不会想
40、杀我No,mystudentsarenttryingtokillme,尽管有时看上去他们会有这冲动althoughsometimesitseemsliketheyare.这已不是我第一次看到那辆k车ThatwasntthefirsttimeIsawthtruck.我想他昨晚就跟着我Ithinkhefollowedmelastnight你在说什么？Whatareyoutalkingabout?你怎么不告诉我？Whydidntyoutellme?因为你对我的访谈Becauseyouwerealreadysopissedoff怒不可遏aboutmyinterview.Charlie.Charlie.
41、所以我就没告诉你SoIjustdidnttellyou.好了Charlie你有什么都可以对我说Comeon,Charlie.Youcancometomewithanything.嘿伙计们我有话要和你们说Hey,guys,letmetalktoyouforaminute.好的Yeah.Charlie向警方描述了那辆货车Charliegaveadescriptionofthetrucktothecops:银色皮卡开着强光灯silverpickup,foglights,前挡泥板和车盖受过撞击bodyworkontherightfrontfenderandhood.好吧这又如何？Allright,so
42、?今早BonnieParks失踪时ThesametruckwasattheSanarinoMail在SanarirlO商场外也停着辆相同的车themorningBonnieParkssappeared.你确定吗？Areyousure?我在录像里看到的Isawitonthevideo.在她进去前几分钟Itpulledoutoftheparkinglotonlyacoupleminutes这辆车才离开的停车场aftershepulledin.他们为何要跟踪Charlie?-他们看过他的访谈节目WhyaretheygoingafterCharlie?Theysawhisinterview.他们知道他
43、在调查这起案件Theyknewhewasworkingthecase.他是个容易对付的目标他不会开枪【可击He,saneasytarget.Hedoesntshootback.我要人24小时守在他身边明白吗？Iwantsomeoneonhim24-7,allright?拜托伙计这也太荒谬了Comeon,man.Nowthisisridiculous.我的办公室内没有其他人Theresnotgonnabeanybodyinmyoffice.Charlie其实你大可不必如此紧张Charlie,youreallycantbetoocareful.你错了Yourewrong.这恰恰证明了Thisisp
44、roofrighthere你该小题大做thatyoucanbetoocareful.Charlie如果你在我的监视下发生什么意外的话Charlie,ifanythinghappenedtoyouonmywatch,Don可是会杀了我的Donwouldhavemyhead.明白了吧？Okay?让我继续自己的工作这里没人1.etmedomyjob.Ifsclear.谢谢那些数字你带着没？Thkyou.Didyoubringthenumbers?什么数字？Whatnumbers?那是什么？Whatisthat?这是我们在BonnieParks的办公室内It,salistofnumberswefoun
45、d找到的一组数字inBonnieParksoffice.Charlie你就不要继续参与本案的调查吧？Charlie,yourenotstillworkingonthiscase?我为何不能？WhywouldntIbe?真的需要我向你解释这些吗？DoIreallyneedtoexplainthistoyou?不管发生什么都不会改变这一事实Whathappenedshouldntchangeanything.事实上Infact,drather我宁可忘了所发生的的一切justforgetithappenedatall.哦这是一项非常理性的计划Oh,thatsaveryrationalplan.我是说这么做与鸵鸟无异Imean,itreallyworksforostriches.Charlie求你了你不能参与Charlie,please,youshouldnotbeworking.我要查！Ihaveto!好吧Okay.嘿如果有什么需要我回避的Hey,ifIcouldhaveduckedoutduringthemiddleo
