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1、/ADBInstitute.ADBIWorkingPaperSeriesRAILTRANSPORTCORRIDORSINTHECARECREGION:LONG-TERMSUPPLYCHAINRESILIENCEANDSHORT-TERMSHOCKSRichardPomfretNo.1422December2023AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteRichardPomfretisanAdjunctProfessorofInternationalEconomics,TheJohnsHopkinsUniversitySAISEurope,Bologna,ItalyandPro
2、fessorofEconomicsEmeritus,UniversityofAdelaide,Australia.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperaretheviewsoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofADBI5ADB1itsBoardofDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBIdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispaperandacceptsnoresponsibilityfor
3、anyconsequencesoftheiruse.TerminologyusedmaynotnecessarilybeconsistentwithADBofficialterms.Discussionpapersaresubjecttoformalrevisionandcorrectionbeforetheyarefinalizedandconsideredpublished.TheWorkingPaperseriesisacontinuationoftheformerlynamedDiscussionPaperseries;thenumberingofthepaperscontinuedw
4、ithoutinterruptionorchange.ADBsworkingpapersreflectinitialideasonatopicandarepostedonlinefordiscussion.Someworkingpapersmaydevelopintootherformsofpublication.TheAsianDevelopmentBankrefersto“China”asthePeoplesRepublicofChinaandtoKorea”astheRepublicofKorea.Suggestedcitation:Pomfret,R.2023.RailTranspor
5、tCorridorsintheCARECRegion:Long-TermSupplyChainResilienceandShort-TermShocks.ADBIWorkingPaper1422.Tokyo:AsianDevelopmentBankInstitute.Available:Pleasecontacttheauthorsforinformationaboutthispaper.Email:richard.pomfretadelaide.edu.auThispaperdrawsonarelatedpaper,ConnectingEurasianSupplyChains:TheImpa
6、ctofCOVID-19andtheRussia-UkraineWarontheEU-ChinaRailLandbridge,whichwaspresentedattheAmericanEconomicAssociationannualmeetingsinNewOrleans6-8January2023.Iamgratefultothediscussant,RadkhaMeneshova,attheADBIEastWestLogisticsForumTransportCorridorsintheCARECRegionwon26-27September2023andtotwoanonymousr
7、efereesforhelpfulcomments.AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteKasumigasekiBuilding,8thFloor3-2-5Kasumigaseki,Chiyoda-kuTokyo100-6008,JapanTel:+81-3-3593-5500Fax:+81-3-3593-5571URL:www.adbi.orgE-mail:infoadbi.org2023AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteAbstractInternationalsupplychainsaredependentoneaseofcrossingbo
8、rdersandefficientconnectivityintermsofprice,speed,andreliability.InitiallyrespondingtodemandfromautomobileandelectronicsfirmstoconnecttheirEuropeanandChinesesupplychainswithfasterandmorereliablefreightservicesthanmaritimeshipping,theEurasianrailtransportcorridorwasestablishedinthe201Os.TherailLandbr
9、idgewasresilientthroughdeterioratingEU-RussianFederationrelationsafter2014andthe2020-2021COVID-19epidemic.However,followingtheRussianinvasionofUkraineandinclusionoftheRussianrailcompanyinwesternsanctionsinFebruary2022,trafficgrowthalongthemainLandbridgeroutesstalled.Thispaperanalyzestheresponseofsup
10、plychainmanagersin2022-2023tothesanctions,andtheroleofpublicpolicyincreatingreliablealternativeroutes.DiversificationandstrengtheningofEurasianrailcorridorsbenefitCentralAsiaRegionalEconomicCooperation(CAREC)membersthroughrevenuesfromtransitfees.Moreimportantisthereductionintransportcostsfortradeamo
11、ngCARECmembersandwithothercountries,whichcansupporteconomicstrategiesaimedateconomicdiversification.Keywords:supplychains,connectivity,Eurasia,LandbridgeJELClassification:F13Contents1. INTRODUCTION12. ESTABLISHMENTANDDEVELOPMENTOFTHELANDBRIDGE,2011-202123. PROMOTINGALTERNATIVESTOTHEMAINLINES44. THER
12、USSIANINVASIONOFUKRAINEANDEURASIANRAILCONNECTIONS.65. COSTSANDBENEFITSTOCARECMEMBERSOFALTERNATIVEROUTES96. CONCLUSIONS10REFERENCES12APPENDIX:MEASURINGTRAFFICALONGTHELANDBRIDGE141. INTRODUCTIONAmajorfeatureofCAREC,stransportandtradefacilitationworkhasbeentheidentificationofcorridors,alongwhichhardand
13、softinfrastructureimprovementscanbecoordinatedtofacilitatetrade.Animportantsteptowardsevidence-basedpolicymakingwastheestablishmentoftheCorridorPerformanceMonitoringandManagementprogram,currentlyrunundertheaegisoftheCARECInstitute,whoseheadlinemeasuresreportspeedalongcorridors,highlightingtheimporta
14、nceoftimeaswellascostforfacilitatingsupplychaintrade.Intermsofrapidgrowthintrafficandincreasedspeed,asubsetofcorridorsformingarailLandbridgebetweenthePeoplesRepublicofChina(PRC)andEuropeandinvolvingalmostallCARECmembercountriesstandsout.Internationalsupplychainsaredependentoneaseofcrossingbordersand
15、onefficientconnectivityintermsofprice,speed,andreliability,andefficientsupplychainmanagementreliesonjust-in-timedeliveryandminimizationofinventories,whetherheldatproductionpointsorintransit.NonstoprailservicesbetweenthePRCandEuropewereestablishedinthe2010stomeetdemandfromEuropeancarcompaniessendingc
16、omponentstofactoriesinthePRCandfromelectronicsfirmssendingcomputersandprintersfromthelattertotheirEuropeanmarketingcenters.The intensification of international supply chains during the last four decades has been easier in some parts of the world than others and so-called global value chains have bee
17、n primarily regional value chains, centered on East Asia, Europe, and North America (Johnson and Noguera 2017). The regional supply chains were only linked at the final step of sending finished products to markets in high-income countries, typically by ocean shipping, until the Eurasian rail Landbri
18、dge established the first major overland link between regional value chains.Overlongdistances,railisfasterthanseatransportandhasmorereliablearrivaltimes,aswellasbeingmoreenvironmentallyfriendlythanmaritime,road,orairfreight.ThenextsectiondescribestheexpansionoftradealongtherailLandbridge,updatingmat
19、erialinapreviousADBIvolume(AzhgaliyevaandKalyuzhnovaeds.2021).Sections 1.3-1.5 of the introductory chapter (Kalyuzhnova and Pomfret 2021) review the emergence of the main Landbridge line, the Middle Corridor option, and the impact of COVID-19. Pomfret (2019a; 2021 a) provides more details on this hi
20、story. A model-based World Bank project found large benefits to countries along the Landbridge (Bird, Lebrand, and Venables 2020) as did an EU-focused study by Mau and Seuren (2023).Thehardinfrastructurewasalreadyinplace.Successdependedongovernmentsagreeingtransitrulesandonthe(state-owned)railcompan
21、iescollaboratingoverschedulesandrates.Beyondthat,developmentoftheLandbridgewasmarketdriven.Asservicesandroutesexpanded,thenumberofcustomersincreasedandtheLandbridgeflourished,despitedeterioratingEU-RussianFederationrelationsafter2014,shiftingEU-PRCpoliticalrelationsafter2017,andtheCOVID-19epidemicin
22、2020-2021.ThemainLandbridgeroutesallpassednorthoftheCaspianSeaandtransitedtheRussianFederation.Section3analyzeseffortsbythePRCand,toalesserextent,theEUtodevelopalternativeroutes,althoughroutesacrossorsouthoftheCaspianSeahadsignificantdisadvantagescomparedtothemainlines.In2022,thepotentialfordisrupti
23、onwasdramaticallyandunexpectedlyrevealedduringtheRussianinvasionofUkrainewasfollowedbysanctionsthatmadeRussianRailwaysanunacceptablepartnertomanyLandbridgecustomers.Section4analyzestheensuingintensifiedsearchforalternativeroutes,indicatingtheLandbridge1Svalueandtheresilienceofsupplychains.Section5re
24、latesthesedevelopmentstotheeconomicprospectsofCARECmembers.Thesixthsectiondrawsconclusions.2. ESTABLISHMENTANDDEVELOPMENTOFTHELANDBRIDGE,2011-2021Between1500and2000,tradebetweenEuropeandEastAsiawasalmostentirelybysea.Asshipsincreasedinsize,costsfell.AlthoughrailtrackhadbeenlaidacrossEurasiainthelate
25、19thandearly20thcenturies,railcouldnotcompetewithseatransportforfreightservicesbetweenEastAsiaandEurope. The extensive rail network established in the late Ottoman Empire is in ruins, and today from Morocco to Iraq not a single train crosses borders; Murder of the Orient Express, The Economist Chris
26、tmas Special 18 December 2021: 41.Thesituationstartedtochangebetween2007and2010asGermancarmanufacturerscharteredtrainstotransportcomponentsfromEuropetotheirjointventurefactoriesinnortheastPRCviatheTransSiberianRailwayorthroughtheRussianFederationandKazakhstan. UNECE (2020, 41) provides an example of
27、 TransContainer (the Russian Federation) and Far East Land Bridge (Austria) arranging the transport of BMW automobile parts from Germany to the PRC in September 2010, reporting that block trains provided door-to-door service from Europe to the PRC in 22-25 days. Similar bespoke services between Lian
28、yungang and Andijan supplied Korean components to the Daewoo/GM factory in Uzbekistan. It is difficult to document all such one-off services.DrivenbydemandfromcarcompaniessendingcomponentstothePRCandfromelectronicscompanieswishingtolinktheirproductionfacilitiesinthePRCtomarketingcentersinEurope,regu
29、lartrainserviceswereestablishedin2011betweenChongqingandDuisburgandbetweenChengduandLodz. A trigger for the services from Chengdu and Chongqing was the PRCs 2001 uGo West policy, which had encouraged firms such as Foxconn (assembler of Apple products), HP, Intel, and Acer to establish large factorie
30、s in the region. The firms intention had been to export products along the Yangtze River to Shanghai, but the river became congested (Pomfret 2021 a). The PRC,s increased infrastructure spending in 2007-2008 to preempt contagion from North Atlantic financial crises included a high-speed rail network
31、 that facilitated inland cities participation in supply chains.Regularrailservicesconnectinganincreasingnumberofcitiesbroadenedtherangeofcustomerswillingtopaymorethanseafreightforfastermorereliabletransportbutunwillingtopayforairfreight.Traveltimeswerereducedascompetingterminiandfreightforwardersand
32、otherintermediariesincreasedefficiency,andasthechangeofgaugeprocesswassimplifiedatthePRC-KazakhstanandBelarus-Polandborders.TheChongqing-Duisburgservicebecamedailyin2016.By2017,trainjourneysfromChongqingtoDuisburg,whichcouldtakelongerthanshipsbefore2011,hadbeencuttoaround15days,whilethesameroutebyri
33、verandseatookbetween35and50days,dependingoncongestionalongtheYangtze,theweather,piracy,andqueuestoentertheSuezCanal. Variability of time may be even more important than average time (Anson et al. 2020). The more predictable arrival time for a train than for a ship is especially important for supply
34、chains, which rely on just-in-time delivery and for which inventories are anathema. Sandkamp1 Stamer, and Yang (2022) highlight the number of piracy incidents affecting ships sailing between the PRC and Europe (200 reported incidents in 2017 with 166 hostages and three deaths), and the costs of rero
35、uting to avoid notable trouble spots.Meanwhile,airfreightratesincreased,andoceanshippingadoptedslow-steamingtoeconomizeonfuelandreducepollution.ThegrowthinLandbridgetrafficwassustainedbyavirtuouscircleofmoreservices(part-containerloads,refrigeratedcontainers,multimodalconnections)andnewroutesthatsti
36、mulatedfurtherdemandandincreasedthenumberoftrips.By2017,over30citiesinthePRCwereofferingnonstopfreightservicestoEurope.InEurope,themainterminiwereDuisburgandLodz,butcitiesfarfromthesehubs,suchasMadridorBudapest,initiateddirectregularservices.ThemostpopularlineswerePRc-Kazakhstan-BeIarus-EUortheTrans
37、-SiberianRailwaybetweennortheastPRCandEurope.TrafficalongtherailLandbridgegrewrapidlyinthedecadeafter2011.Thereisnoconsistentsingledatasource(seeAppendix).NumbersreportedbytheEurasianRailAlliance(UTLC)forthemainlinethroughKazakhstan,theRussianFederation,andBelarusshowrapidgrowthincontainershipmentst
38、ooverhalfamillionin2020(Table1).TheUTLCnumbersunderstatetotalfreight,becausemanycustomers,especiallyfromnortheastPRC,usetheTransSiberianRailway.TheChinesedatainTable1coverallroutes,andtrytoexcludebilateraltradewithKazakhstan,Mongolia,ortheRussianFederation,butitisnotalwaysclearwheretodrawtheline,e.g
39、.trainstoRussianBalticportsaremostlyLandbridgetraffictoScandinaviaorGermanyratherthantoaRussiandestination.Insum,bothseriesinTable1mayunderstatetheextentofLandbridgetraffic,butthetime-pathisconsistent.Table1:VolumeofTrafficonPRC-EU-PRCContainerTrainsYearNumberofTwenty-footEquivalentContainers(TEUs)N
40、umberofTrainstoandfromthePRC2011172012422013802014308201546,0008152016100,5001,7022017175,8003,6732018280,5006,3762019333,000812252020546,90012,4062021692,50015,000Sources:Column1UTLCwebsiteatColumn2ChineseofficialdatacitedinThe2021SilkRoadNumbersAreThere:WhatDoTheyTellUs?PostedatTheLandbridgehasbro
41、ughtfinancialbenefitstothoseprovidingandusingtheservices.Thestate-ownednationalrailcompanies,ledbyDeutscheBahn,respondedtoprofitableopportunities.The rail companies revenues are confidential, but an Asian Development Bank source reported that Kazakhstan earned over one billion dollars in transit fee
42、s in 2015 (Pomfret 2019b, 267), the Astana Times reported in October 2019 that transit revenues had been $2 billion over the past year (Yergaliyeva 2019), and Kazakhstans 2015-2019 Nurly Zhol investment program envisaged transit revenues of $4 billion in 2020.Participationoffreightforwardersandofcou
43、rierservicessuchasDHL,Fedex,andUPSwereprofitdriven.EuropeancountriesestablishingrailconnectionstothePRCbenefitedthroughincreasedexports.Basedon1996-2018tradedata,MauandSeuren(2023)findthat,followingtheinitiationofaLandbridgeroute,theincreaseinbilateraltradebetweenthePRCandtheEUwasledbytheHS2-digitse
44、ctorselectricalequipment,motorvehicles,andmachineryandequipment,illustratingtheimportanceoftime-sensitivedeliveriesalonginternationalsupplychains.TheyalsofindthattheEUmembersbenefitingmostfromtheimpactofrailconnectionsonexportswerecountriesinCentral,Eastern,andSoutheastEurope,witheconomicstructuresm
45、oreorientedtowards,railwayadoptingindustriesthanthemoreservices-orientedwesternEuropeanmembers. Eastern European countries (especially Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) have been active participants in EU regional value chains (Pomfret and Sourdin 2018). Lodz quickly established itself as the
46、Eastern European hub for EU-PRC rail freight (Jakdbowski, Poplawski, and Kaczmarski 2018).InternationaltradewasnegativelyimpactedbytheCOVID-19epidemic,buttheimpactondifferentmodesoftransportvaried(Pomfretf2023).IntheRussianFederation,CentralAsia,andtheCaucasus,airfreightessentiallystoppedandtranspor
47、tbyroadwasdisruptedbyrequirementsfordriverstobetestedforCOVIDatbordercrossingpointsandbyotherregulations. Air freight and road transport appear to have recovered in 2021. A World Bank study (Arvis, Rastogi, and Saslavsky 2022) reported EU-PRC-EU trade in 2021 by value to be 698 billion (67% by sea,
48、28% by air and 5% by rail) and EU-CentraI Asia-EU trade in 2021 by value to be 25 billion (9% by air, 27% by road, 60% multimodal, and 3% *,other).Seafreightwasdisruptedbyquarantineandotherrestrictionsthatstrandedshipsinthewrongplace.Evenaslockdownswereeasedandfactoriesstartedupagain,containersandshipswereoutoflocationasmanagersdealtwithcrewsafetyissuesanddocksidebiosecurity.JourneytimeforcargoreadyattheEastAsianportofdeparturetodeliveryattheEuropeanportofarrivalincreasedfromlessth
