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1、ContentsBackground4Methaneemissionestimates5Upstreamanddownstreamoilandgas5Incompletecombustionofflares9Coalminemethane10Emissionsfromfuelcombustion(enduse)11Wasteandagriculture13Methaneabatementestimates14Marginalabatementcostcurvesforoilandgas14Well-headpricesusedinnetpresentvaluecalculation19Marg
2、inalabatementcostcurvesforcoalminemethane20Energypricesusedinnetpresentvaluecalculation24Projectionsofenergy-relatedmethaneemissionsandassessedtemperaturerises.26Glossary28Oilandgasabatementtechnologies28Coalminemethaneabatementtechnologies30Policyoptions33Policyexplorer34References38BackgroundTheIE
3、A,sestimatesofmethaneemissionsareproducedwithintheframeworkoftheIEA,sGlObalEnerqVandCIimateModnl(GEC).Since1993,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)hasprovidedmedium-tolong-termenergyprojectionsusingthislarge-scalesimulationmodeldesignedtoreplicatehowenergymarketsfunctionandgeneratedetailedsector-by-se
4、ctorandregion-by-regionprojectionsfortheWorldEnergyOutlook(WEO)scenarios.Updatedeveryyear,themodelconsistsofthreemainmodules:finalenergyconsumption(coveringresidential,services,agriculture,industry,transportandnon-energyuse);energytransformationincludingpowergenerationandheat,refineryandothertransfo
5、rmation(suchashydrogenproduction);andenergysupply(oil,naturalgasandcoal).Outputsfromthemodelincludeenergyflowsbyfuel,investmentneedsandcosts,greenhousegasemissionsandend-userprices.TheGECisaverydata-intensivemodelcoveringthewholeglobalenergysystem.Muchofthedataonenergysupply,transformationanddemand,
6、aswellasenergypricesisobtainedfromtheIEA,sowndatabasesofenergyandeconomicstatistics(andthroughcollaborationwithotherinstitutions.Forexample,fortheNetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySectorpublication,resultsfromboththeWEOandEnerqyTeChnolOqVPerSDeCtiVeS(ETP)modelshavebeencombinedwiththosefromtheI
7、nternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)一inparticulartheGreenhouseGas-AirPollutionInteractionsandSynergies(GAINS)model-toevaluateairpollutantemissionsandresultanthealthimpacts.And,forthefirsttime,resultswerecombinedwiththeIIASA,sGlobalBiosphereManagementModel(G1.OBIOM)toprovidedataonlan
8、duseandnetemissionsimpactsofbioenergydemand.TheGECalsodrawsdatafromawiderangeofexternalsourceswhichareindicatedintherelevantsectionsoftheGECdocumentation.ThecurrentversionofGECcoversenergydevelopmentsupto2050in29regions.DependingonthespecificmoduleoftheWEM,individualcountriesarealsomodelled:16indema
9、nd;113inoilandnaturalgassupply;and32incoalsupply(seeAnnexAoftheGECdocumentation).MethaneemissionestimatesTheGlobalMethaneTrackercoversallsourcesofmethanefromhumanactivity.Fortheenergysector,theseareIEAestimatesformethaneemissionsfromthesupplyoruseoffossilfuels(coal,oilandnaturalgas)andfromtheuseofbi
10、oenergy(suchassolidbioenergy,liquidbiofuelsandbiogases).Fornon-energysectors-waste,agricultureandothersources-referencevaluesbasedonpubliclyavailabledatasourcesareprovidedtoenableafullerpictureofmethanesources.UpstreamanddownstreamoilandgasOurapproachtoestimatingmethaneemissionsfromglobaloilandgasop
11、erationsreliesongeneratingcountry-specificandproductiontype-specificemissionintensitiesthatareappliedtoproductionandconsumptiondataonacountry-bycountrybasis.OurstartingpointistogenerateemissionintensitiesforupstreamanddownstreamoilandgasintheUnitedStates(Table1).TheUSGreenhouseGasInventory(USEPA5202
12、3)isusedalongwithawiderangeofotherpublicly-reported,credibledatasources.Thehydrocarbon-,segment-andproductionspecificemissionintensitiesarethenfurthersegregatedintofugitive,ventedandincompleteflaringemissionstogiveatotalof19separateemissionintensities.Table1.Categoriesofemissionsourcesandemissionsin
13、tensitiesintheUnitedStatesHydrocarbonSegmentProductiontypeEmissionstypeIntensity(massmethane/massoilorgas)OilUpstreamOnshoreconventionalVented0.36%OilUpstreamOnshoreconventionalFugitive0.09%OilUpstreamOffshoreVented0.36%OilUpstreamOffshoreFugitive0.09%OilUpstreamUnconventionaloilVented0.72%OilUpstre
14、amUnconventionaloilFugitive0.18%OilDownstreamVented0.004%OilDownstreamFugitive0.001%OilOnshoreconventionalIncomplete-flare0.06%OilOffshoreIncomplete-flare0.01%OilUnconventionalIncomplete-flare0.04%NaturalgasUpstreamOnshoreconventionalVented0.29%NaturalgasUpstreamOnshoreconventionalFugitive0.11%Natur
15、algasUpstreamOffshoreVented0.29%HydrocarbonSegmentProductiontypeEmissionstypeIntensity(massmethane/massoilorgas)NaturalgasUpstreamOffshoreFugitive0.11%NaturalgasUpstreamUnconventionalgasVented0.43%NaturalgasUpstreamUnconventionalgasFugitive0.17%NaturalgasDownstreamVented0.15%NaturalgasDownstreamFugi
16、tive0.10%TheUSemissionsintensitiesarescaledtoprovideemissionintensitiesinallothercountries.Thisscalingisbaseduponarangeofauxiliarycountry-specificdata.Fortheupstreamemissionintensities,thescalingisbasedontheageofinfrastructure,typesofoperatorwithineachcountry(namelyinternationaloilcompanies,independ
17、entcompaniesornationaloilcompanies)andaverageflaringintensity(flaringvolumesdividedbyoilproductionvolumes).Fordownstreamemissionintensities,country-specificscalingfactorswerebasedupontheextentofoilandgaspipelinenetworksandoilrefiningcapacityandutilisation.Figure1Methodologicalapproachforestimatingme
18、thaneemissionsfromoilandgasoperationsMeasurementstudiesGovernanceindicatorsRuleoflaw.regulation.SatellitereadingsUSemissionsintensitiesCountryemissionsintensitiesActivitydataCountry-levelmethaneemissionsIndustryindicatorsOperator;age;flaring;pipelinelengthCountryscalingfactorsIEA.CCBY4.0.Thestrength
19、ofregulationandoversight,incorporatinggovernmenteffectiveness,regulatoryqualityandtheruleoflawasgivenbytheWorldwideGovernanceIndicatorscompiledbytheWorldBank(2023),affectsthescalingofallintensities.Someadjustmentsweremadetothescalingfactorsinalimitednumberofcountriestotakeintoaccountotherdatathatwer
20、emadeavailable(wherethiswasconsideredtobesufficientlyrobust),suchascomprehensivemeasurementstudies.Thisincludesdataonsatellite-detectedlargeemittersandubasin-levelinversions,lwhichusesatellitereadingstoassessmethaneemissionsacrossawideroilandgasproductionregion,basedondataprocessingbyKayrros,anearth
21、observationfirm(seeBox1.6).Italsoincludesspecificpolicyeffortstocontrolmethaneemissionsfromtheoilandgassectors,astrackedintheIEAPOIiCieSDatabase.Table2providestheresultantscalingfactorsinthetopoilandgasproducers(thecountrieslistedcover90%ofglobaloilandgasproduction).Thesescalingfactorsaredirectlyuse
22、dtomodifytheemissionsintensitiesinTable1.Forexample,theventedemissionintensityofonshoreconventionalgasproductionintheRussianFederation(hereafter,Russia)istakenas0.29%1.7=0.49%.Theseintensitiesarefinallyappliedtotheproduction(forupstreamemissions)orconsumption(fordownstreamemissions)ofoilandgaswithin
23、eachcountry.Table2.ScalingfactorsappliedtoemissionintensitiesintheUnitedStatesCountryOil&gasproductionin2023OilDownstreamGasmtoeUpstreamUpstreamDownstreamUnitedStates17241.01.01.01.0Russia10782.31.31.71.1SaudiArabia6430.80.40.60.4Canada4521.00.51.00.5Iran4253.10.91.40.9China4091.50.91.10.8UnitedArab
24、2491.40.71.20.6EmiratesIraq2311.40.50.80.5Qatar2271.10.61.00.6Norway2010.00.00.00.0Brazil1961.71.31.71.3Kuwait1631.40.71.10.7Algeria1584.71.42.11.4Australia1520.80.50.60.5Mexico1331.60.91.10.8Kazakhstan1162.81.42.51.4Nigeria1063.81.82.41.8Oman911.60.71.00.7Malaysia902.21.11.51.1Indonesia853.21.52.11
25、.5Egypt852.41.01.31.0Turkmenistan7715.84.56.64.5Argentina752.51.11.81.11.ibya723.71.01.71.0India673.21.62.11.5Box1IntegratingemissionsestimatesfromsatellitesTheGlobalMethaneTrackerintegratesresultsfromallpublicly-reported,crediblesourceswheredatahasbecomeavailable.Thisincludesemissionsdetectedbysate
26、llites.Changesintheatmosphericconcentrationofmethanecanbeusedtoestimatetherateofemissionsfromasourcethatwouldhavecausedsuchachange.ThisisdonebasedondataprocessingbyKaarros,anearthobservationfirm,toconvertreadingsofconcentrationstoidentifylargesourcesofemissionsfromoilandgasoperations.Reportedemissio
27、nsencompassmethanesourcesabove5tonnesperhour.OilandgasemissionsdetectedbysatellitesarereportedasaseparateitemwithintheMethaneTracker.Theseestimatesarebasedonaconservativescalingupofemissioneventsdirectlydetectedtotakeintoaccounttheperiodwithintheyearwhenobservationscouldbemade.Thisiscarriedoutforall
28、regionswhereobservationswerepossibleforatleast20daysintheyear.Theincreasingamountofdataandinformationfromsatelliteswillcontinuetoimproveglobalunderstandingofmethaneemissionslevelsandtheopportunitiestoreducethem.However,satellitesdohavesomelimitations: Existingsatellitesstruggletoprovidemeasurementso
29、verequatorialregions,northernareas,mountainranges,snowyorice-coveredregionsorforoffshoreoperations.Thismeansthattherearealargenumberofmajorproductionareaswhereemissionscannotbeobserved. Existingsatellitesshouldbeabletoprovidemethanereadingsgloballyonadailybasisbutthisisnotalwayspossiblebecauseofclou
30、dcoverandotherweatherconditions.During2023therewerearound70countrieswheremethaneemissionsfromoilandgasoperationscouldbedetectedforatleast20days.1.argeemissioneventswereobservedin20ofthesecountriesin2023.CoveragetendstobebestintheMiddleEast,AustraliaandpartofCentralAsia,whereadirectmeasurementcouldbe
31、madeevery3-5days.Ontheremainingdays,cloudcoverageorotherinterferencepreventedmeasurementoperations. Theprocessofusingchangesintheatmosphericconcentrationofmethanetoestimateemissionsfromaparticularsourcecanrelyonalargelevelofauxiliarydataandbesubjecttoahighdegreeofuncertainty.Thesatellitereadingsincl
32、udedintheGlobalMethaneTrackercurrentlyprovidedataonlyforlargeemittingsources.Thisis,ofcourse,subjecttoahighdegreeofuncertainty,butensuresthatcountry-by-countyestimatesprovideacomprehensivepictureofallmethaneemissionssources.Asadditionaldatabecomesavailablefrommeasurementcampaigns-whetherrecordedfrom
33、groundoraerialprocessesorbysatellites-thesewillbeincorporatedintotheGlobalMethaneTrackerandestimatesadjustedaccordingly.IncompletecombustionofflaresOurapproachtoestimatingmethaneemissionsfromflaringreliesongeneratingcountry-specificandproductiontype-specificcombustionefficienciesthatareappliedtoflar
34、ingdataonacountry-by-countrybasis.GlobalestimatesofflaredvolumesofnaturalgasarebasedonreporteddatafromtheWorldBanksGlobalGasFlaringReductionPartnership.ThesedataaretakenfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)andthePayneInstitute(WorldBank,2023).Combustionefficienciescanreduceasaresu
35、ltoflowerproductionrates,highandvariablewinds,andpoormaintenanceresultingfromlackofregulatorypolicy,enforcementorcompanypolicy(Johnson,2001;Kostiuk,2004).Weestimatecombustionbaseduponarangeofauxiliarycountry-specificdata: Oilproductiontype(unconventionalonshore,conventionalonshoreandoffshore),compan
36、ytypeandproductionstart-upyear,basedonRystadEnergyUCubedata.CompanytypeisgroupedinMajors(ExxonMobil,Chevron,BP,RoyalDutchShell,EniSpA,TotaIEnergies,andConocoPhillips),NationalOilCompanies(NOCs)andOther(e.g.Independent,PrivateEquity).Maintenancelevelstoimproveflaringcombustionefficiencieswereapplieds
37、eparatelybycompanytypeassumingthatmorescrutinyfrominvestorsandthepublicisplacedontheMajorsascomparedtoNOCsorOther. FlaringdesignstandardsAPI521andAPI537wereconsideredgaugeflarestacksizes,assumingbest-casedesignandoptimalflareparametersduringearlyproductiontime(API,2014;API,2017). Theimpactofwindspee
38、dwasincorporatedusingNASA,sPredictionofWorldwideEnergyResources(POWER)MeteorologyDataAccessViewer(NASA,2021).Onshorewindspeedswereassessedat10mandoffshorewindspeedsat50mtoreflectclosestheightofflarestacksinactualfacilitydesign.Windspeedvariabilityanditsimpactoncombustionefficiencywasincorporatedcorr
39、espondingtothelocationofproduction. TheWorldBanksWorldwideGovernanceIndicatorsdatabase(2023)wasusedasthebasistoassessthegeneralstrengthofregulatoryoversight.Adjustmentsaremadetoconsiderdataonsatellite-detectedlargeemittersandspecificpolicyeffortstocontrolmethaneemissionsfromtheoilandgassectors,astra
40、ckedintheIEAPoliciesDatabase.Countrieswithstrongerflaringregulationandstrongregulatoryoversightarecalibratedassumingcompaniesweremandatedtoquicklyinspectandrepairanymalfunctioningorpoorperformingflaresites.Countrieswithweakflaringregulationandlowlevelsofoversightareassumedtoperformlittletonoaddition
41、almaintenance.CoalminemethaneTheIEA,sestimatesofcoalminemethane(CMM)emissionsarederivedfrommine-specificorregion-specificemissionsintensitiesforAustralia,thePeople,sRepublicofChina(hereafter,China,)jIndiaandtheUnitedStates(whichcollectivelyaccountedforaround75%ofglobalcoalproductionin2022).Emissioni
42、ntensitiesforcoalminesintheUnitedStatesarebasedonthelatestUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,sGreenhOUSeGaSReDoningPrOgramandUSGreenhOUSeGaSInventory.EmissionintensitiesforcoalproductioninAustraliaarebasedonitslatestNationaIlnVentoryReports.ThisissupplementedbydatasourcesthatprovideddisaggregatedCMMdat
43、aforChina(Wangetal.,2018;Zhlletal.,2017)andIndia(SinahA.K.andSahUJ.N.,2018)(IndiaMinistryofCoal,2018).Themine-levelCMMestimatesgeneratedinthiswayareaggregated,verifiedandcalibratedagainstcountry-levelestimatestakenfromsatellitesandatmosphericreadings(e.g.Sheneta1.2023:Dencletal.,2022;MilIeretal,2019
44、).MethaneemissionsarecalculatedseparatelyforthethreemaincoaltypesintheGIObalEnerqyandClimateMOde1.steamcoal;cokingcoal;andlignite(seeTable3forasummaryofintensities).Methaneemissionsfrompeatminingarelikelytoberelativelysmallandarenotincludedinthisanalysis.Basedonthesedata,coalquality,minedepth,andreg
45、ulatoryoversightareusedtoestimateCMMemissionintensitiesforminesinothercountriesforwhichtherearenoreliablemeasurement-basedestimates.TheWorldBank,sWorldwideGovernanceIndicatorsdatabase(2023)wasusedasthebasistoassessthegeneralstrengthofregulatoryoversightalongsidepoliciesrelatedtocoalminemethanetracke
46、dintheIEA,sPoliCieSDatabase.Theemissionsintensitiesalsoconsiderestimatesfromsatellite-detectedlargeemittersandbasin-levelemissionsforcoalproducingregions,basedondataprocessingbyKavrros.Thedepthandtype(surfaceorunderground)ofindividualminesinoperationaroundtheworld,aswellastheassociatedcoalresource(t
47、hermalormetallurgical)andmethanegascontent,isbasedontheGEMGlobalCoalMineTraCkerandtheCRUdatabase.Deepercoalseamstendtocontainmoremethanethanshallowerseams,whilecoalofhigherrank(e.g.anthracite)hashighermethanecontentthancoaloflowerrank(e.g.lignite).Intheabsenceofanymitigationmeasures,methaneemissionstotheatmospherewillthereforetendtobehigherforundergroundminesthanforsurfacemines.Minesthathavebothsurfaceandundergroundoperationsareclassifiedasunderground.Min
