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1、G1.OBA1.PRIVATEEQUITYREPORT2024RAIN&COMPANYQAboutBain&CompanysPrivateEquitybusinessBain&Companyistheleadingconsultingpartnertotheprivateequity(PE)industryanditsstakeholders.PEconsultingatBainhasgrowneightfoldoverthepast15yearsandnowrepresentsaboutone-thirdofthefirm,sglobalbusiness.Wemaintainaglobaln
2、etworkofmorethan2,000experiencedprofessionalsservingPEclients.Ourpracticeismorethantriplethesizeofthenext-largestconsultingcompanyservingPEfirms.Bain,sworkwithPEfirmsspansfundtypes,includingbuyout,infrastructure,realestate,anddebt.Wealsoworkwithhedgefunds,aswellasmanyofthemostprominentinstitutionali
3、nvestors,includingsovereignwealthfunds,pensionfunds,endowments,andfamilyinvestmentoffices.Wesupportourclientsacrossabroadrangeofobjectives：Dealgeneration.Weworkalongsideinvestorstodeveloptherightinvestmentthesisandenhancedealflowbyprofilingindustries,screeningtargets,anddevisingaplantoapproachtarget
4、s.Duediligence.Wchelpsupportbetterdealdecisionsbyperformingintegratedduediligence,assessingrevenueg,owthandcost-reductionopportunitiestodetermineatargetsfullpotential,andprovidingapost-acquisitionagenda.Immediatepost-acquisition.Afteranacquisition,wesupportthepursuitofrapidreturnsbydevelopingstrateg
5、icblueprintsforacquiredcompanies,leadingworkshopsthatalignmanagementwithstrategicpriorities,anddirectingfocusedinitiatives.Ongoingvalueaddition.Duringtheownershipphase,wehelpincreasethevalueofportfoliocompaniesbysupportingrevenueenhancementandcost-reductioninitiativesandrefreshingtheirvalue-creation
6、plans.Exit.Wehelpensurethatinvestorsmaximizereturnsbypreparingforexit,identifyingtheoptimalexitstrategy,preparingthesellingdocuments,andprequalifyingbuyers.Firmstrategyandoperations.WehelpPEfirmsdevelopdistinctivewaystoachievecontinuedexcellencebydevisingdifferentiatedstrategies,maximizinginvestment
7、capabilities,developingsectorspecializationandintelligence,enhancingfund-raising,improvingorganizationaldesignanddecisionmaking,andenlistingtoptalent.Institutionalinvestorstrategy.Wehelpinstitutionalinvestorsdevelopbest-in-classinvestmentprogramsacrossassetclasses,includingprivateequity,infrastructu
8、re,andrealestate.Topicsweaddresscoverassetclassallocation,portfolioconstructionandmanagerselection,governanceandriskmanagement,andorganizationaldesignanddecisionmaking.Wealsohelpinstitutionalinvestorsexpandtheirparticipationinprivateequity,includingthroughcoinvestmentanddirectinvestingopportunities.
9、Bain&Company,Inc.131DartmouthStreetBoston,Massachusetts02116USATel：+16175722000NetPromoter,NPS,NPSPrism,andtheNPS-relatedemoticonsareregisteredtrademarksofBain&Company,lnc.,NICESystems,lnc.,andFredReichheld.NetPromoterSCOreSMandNetPromoterSyStemSMareservicemarksofBain&Company,lnc.,NICESystems,lnc.,a
10、ndFredReichheld.Copyright2024Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.GlobalPrivateEquityReport2024ContentsTheDarkbeforetheDawn2PrivateEquityOutlook2024:The1.iquidityImperative3Investments9Exits15Fund-raising19Returns24Move-InReady:RenovatingYourGrowthStrategy28HaveSecondariesReachedaTippingPoint?35Buildi
11、ngaStrongerBuy-and-Build39HarnessingGenerativeAIinPrivateEquity45TheYearCashBecameKingAgaininPrivateEquity52GlobalPrivateEquityReport2024TheDarkbeforetheDawnDearColleague：Theyear2023wasoneofportent.Dealvaluefellby37%.Exitvalueslidevenmore,by44%.Fundaisingdroppedacrossprivatecapital,as38%fewerbuyoutf
12、undsclosed.Interestingly,dollarcommitmentsinbuyoutssurgedasanumberofhigh-performingfundscametomarket.Butitwastrulyayearofhavesandhave-nots.Just20fundsaccountedformorethanhalfofallbuyoutcapitalraised.Thewordforthismarketisstalled.Cuttingthroughallofthemacronoisewasthe525-basis-pointincreaseinUScentra
13、lbankratesfromMarch2022toJuly2023.Thespeedandmagnitudeofthisrisecausedgeneralpartnerstohitthepausebutton.Thegoodnews?Interestratesappeartobestableandhavebeenforafewmonths.Recorddrypowderisstackedandreadyfordeployment.Asizablechunkofthisdrypowderisagingandneedstobeputtowork.1.ookingintoportfolios,nea
14、rlyhalfofallglobalbuyoutcompanieshavebeenheldforatleastfouryears.Inshort,theconditionsappeartobeshiftinginfavorofhittingthegobutton.Wewillseewhat2024brings.Bestwishes,阳心照HughMacArthurChairman,GlobalPriVateEquityPrivateEquityOutlook2024:The1.iquidityImperativeSpikinginterestratesderaileddealmakingin2
15、023andleftthecapitalflywheelsputtering.Gettingunstuckisjoboneintheyearahead.ByHughMacArthur,RebeccaBurack,GrahamRose,ChristopheDeVusser,KikiYang,andSebastien1.amyAtaGIance Privateequitycontinuedtoreelin2023asrapidlyrisinginterestratesledtosharpdeclinesindealmaking,exits,andfund-raising. Theexitconun
16、drumhasemergedasthemostpressingproblem,as1.Psstarvedfordistributionspullbacknewallocationsfromallbutthelargest,mostreliablefunds. Thelong-termoutlookremainssound,butbreakingthelogjamwillrequiremorerobustapproachestovaluecreationandrapidinnovationinliquiditysolutions.It,ssafetosaytheprivateequityindu
17、stryhasneverseenanythingquitelikewhafshappenedoverthelast24months.Whilethesharpdrop-offindealactivityinlate2022andinto2023echoestheperiodfollowingthe2008-09globalfinancialcrisis(GFC),thesituationtheindustryfacestodayislargelyunprecedented.ThenumbersareallveryGFCTike：Dealvalueanddealcounthavefallen60
18、%and35%,respectively,fromtheirpeaksin2021.Exitvalueisdown66%,andthenumberoffundsclosingisoffbynearly55%GlobalPrivateEquityReport2024(SeeFigure1).Yetwhat,sdrivingthesedeclinescouldn,tbemoredissimilartowhatwashappeningin2008-09,andmakingsenseofitrequiresadifferentlensaltogether.Asdifficultasitwas,thea
19、ftermathoftheGFCfollowedapredictablepattern-Tocopewiththecrisis,centralbankersslashedinterestratestospuractivity,theeconomyslowlystabilized,andprivateequitywasabletoclawitswaybackfromwhatmanypredictedwouldbeitsunraveling.Theresultingperiodofg,owthintheyearsthatfollowedcreatedaprivateequityindustryth
20、atisvastlylargerandmorecomplexthananyonein2008couldhavereasonablyexpected.Yettodaythatsizeandcomplexitymagnifythechallengestheindustryfaces.Businessconditionsaremoreperplexingthanpredictable.Interestrateshaverisenfasterthanatanytimesincethe1980s,anditremainsunclearwhentheUSFederalReservewillreversec
21、ourseorwhererateswilleventuallysettle(seeFigure2).Concernsaboutwhatwedubbedlastyear“themostanticipatedrecessioninhistorythathasn,thappenedyet“continuetolinger.Yettothesurpriseofmostanalysts,theeconomyischuggingalongnicely.Record-lowunemployment,reasonableg*owth,andsurgingpublicmarketsintheUSsuggestt
22、hepossibilitythatWemightjustescapethesemonthsofturmoilwithnothingworsethanasoftlanding.Thesecrossedsignalshaveleftprivateequityhamstrung.Thesheervelocityoftheinterestrateshockwassomethingfewintheindustryhadeverexperienced,andtheimpactonvaluehasdrivenawedgebetweenbuyersandsellers.Figure1a:Investments
23、,exits,andthenumberofbuyoutfundsclosedallcontinuedtoslidein2023astheindustryreeledfromrisinginterestratesInvestmentsGlobalbuyoutdealvalue-Dealcount(-60%)ExitsGlobalbuyout-backedexitvalueExitcount201320182023Fund-raisingGlobalbuyoutcapitalraised-CountoffundsclosedNotes:Investmentsexcludesadd-ons;excl
24、udesloon-to-owntransactionsandacquisitionsofbankruptassets:basedonannouncementdate;includesannounceddealsthatorecompletedorpending,withdatasubjecttochange:Batsincludesfullodpartialexits;bankruptciesexcluded;IPOvaluerepresentsofferamountandnotmarketvalueofcompany:Fund-raisingdatagroupedbytheyearinwhi
25、chfundsheldtheirfinalclose;countisofallfunds,includingthoseforwhichfinalclosedata$UnaVoaObte；buyoutcategoryincludesbuyoutbalanced,Coinvesiment,andCoinveslmenlmultimanagerfunds;excludesSoftBankVisionFundSources:Dealogic;PreqinGlobalPrivateEquityReport2024Figure1b:Activityduringthesecondhalfoftheyearw
26、asanimprovementonthefirst,butnotbymuchInvestmentsGlobalbuyoutdealvalue,quarterlyExitsDealcountGlobalbuyout-backedexitvalue,quarterlyExitcountFund-raisingGlobalbuyoutcapitalraised,quarterlyNotes:Investmentsexcludesadd-ons;excludesloon-to-owntransoctionsandacquisitionsofbankruptassets:basedonannouncem
27、entdote;includesannounceddealsthatorecompletedorpending,withdatasubjecttochange:Exitsincludesfullandpartialexits;bankruptciesexcluded;IPOvaluerepresentsofferamountandnotmarketvaueofcompany:Fund-raisingdatagroupedbytheyearinwhichfundsheldtheirfinalclose;countisofallfunds,includingthoseforwhichfinalcl
28、osedataisUnaVaiabte;buyoutcategoryincludesbuyout,balanced,Coinveslment,andCoinveslmenlmulmaagerfunds:excludesSoftBankVisionFundSources:Dealogic;PreqinFigure2:The525-basis-pointriseininterestratesfromMarch2022toJuly2023wasthesharpestmonetarytighteningindecadesCentralbankinterestratesbyregion(monthlya
29、verage)+113basis+289bps+98bps+25bpsNotes:USshowsfederalfundsrate;Europeshowseuroshort-termreporate;UKshowsclearingbanksbaserate(middlerate);basispointchangesoverasix-monthperiodaredisplayedfortheUSonlyandcalculatedbasedontheincreaseinaverageinterestratesbetweentheendofJuneandDecemberofeachyearSource
30、:1.SEGGlobalPrivateEquityReport2024Pricemultiples,whichtendtomoveinverselytointerestrates,havetippeddownwardoverthelastyear,butonlyslightlysofar.That,sbecausesellersarebringingtomarketonlythehighest-qualityassets,thosetheyareconfidentwillmoveatareasonablereturn.Otherwise,theexitchannelshavelargelydr
31、iedup,leavinggeneralpartners(GPs)withatowering$3.2trillioninunsoldassetsandstanchingtheflowofcapitalbacktolimitedpartners(1.Ps).Thesedeclinesinactivityhavehadachillingeffectonfund-raising.Slowerdistributionshaveleft1.Pscashflownegative,crimpingtheirabilitytoplowmorecapitalbackintoprivateequity.Thein
32、dustrystillraisedanimpressive$1.2trillioninfreshcapitalin2023,andthebuyoutcategoryattracted$448billion.But1.Pswerehighlyselective.Whilecapitalflowedtothelargest“reliablehand“buyoutfunds,fund-raisingformostwasashardasit,severbeen.Slowerdistributionshaveleft1.Pscashflownegative,crimpingtheirabilitytop
33、lowmorecapitalbackintoprivateequity.UntilGPscanbeginmovingassetsoutoftheirportfoliosinatimelyfashion,raisingthenextfundwon,tgetanyeasier.Andthethreattoreturnsisreal.Buyoutstypicallyinvolvetermloansthatexpireinfivetosevenyears.Already,interestcoverageratiosamongbuyout-backedportfoliocompaniesintheUSh
34、avedroppedto2.4timesearningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortization(EBITDA),thelowestlevelsince2007.ThatispressuringGPstobothfindliquiditysolutionsanddevisenewwaystogenerateprofitsthroughoperatingleverage-notjustthemultipleexpansionandrevenuegrowththeindustryhasleanedonforyears.Earlysignso
35、faturnaround?Themostdifficultaspectofthisgridlock,ofcourse,ispredictingwhatwillhappennext.Butinourview,thegreenshootsofarecoveryarestartingtopokethrough.Perhapsthemostimportantisthat,barringanynewmacroshocksorgeopoliticalcrises,ratesaremorelikelythannottomoderateinthecomingyear.Evenslightcutsarelike
36、lytospurondealmakingaslongasthemacrooutlookremainsrelativelystable.Buyoutfundsalonearesittingonarecord$1.2trillionindrypowder,and26%ofthatisfouryearsoldorolder,upfrom22%in2022(seeFigure3).ThatcreatesaheavierincentivethannormalforGPstogetoffthesidelinesandstartbuying,evenifconditionsaren,tideal.Activ
37、ityisalreadytickingupward,andwithhelpfromtheFedandtheEuropeanCentralBank,thebiasin2024islikelytotheupsidewhenitcomestodealcountandvalue.Exitsareanothermatter.Barringasharpertha11anticipateddropinrates,sellerswillcontinuetofacehighhurdlestounloadingcompaniestostrategicbuyers,othersponsors,orthepublic
38、markets.GlobalPrivateEquityReport2024Figure3:Witharecord26%ofglobalbuyoutdrypowdernowfouryearsoldorolder,generalpartnersareundergrowingpressuretododealsGlobalbuyoutdrypowder,byyearssincecapitalraised($T)4yearsold(%)Notes:Buyoutcategoryincludesbuyout,balanced,Coinvestment,andcoinvestmentmultimanagerf
39、unds;assumesaverageinvestmentperiodoffiveyears;percentagesplitofcapitalraisedin2023isasofQ2;discrepanciesinbarheightsdisplayingthesamevalueareduetoroundingdifferencesSources:Preqin;BalnanalysisWithsponsorsstrugglingtosendcashbacktotheir1.Ps,2024willlikelybedefinedbyhowcreativetheindust-ycanbeinfindi
40、ngwaystogenerateliquidity.Actionrequired.Whafsclearisthatpassivelywaitingforconditionstorecoverisnotaviablestrategy.Muchofthisreportisdevotedtoexploringhowthesedynamicsareplayingoutandwhatthemostforward-thinkingGPsareworkingon.Gettingunstuckwilldemandactioninseveraldirectionsatonce-Doublingdownonval
41、uecreation.Theexitsituationisshiningabrightlightonhowcriticalitistogenerateoperatingleverageinamarketwheretailwindsfrommultipleexpansionhaveturnedintoheadwinds.Youcan,tcontrolthedirectionofrates.Butyoucangetbetteratunderwritingvalueandcapturingitthroughcrispexecution.Wevetalkedaboutitforyears：Theind
42、ustryhasrelieddisproportionatelyonrisingmultiplesandrevenuegainstogeneratereturnswhilemarginimprovementhascontributedpracticallynothing.Thatnolongerworkswhenrisingratesserveasballastforassetmultiples.Theportfoliocompaniesthatwillstandoutinthisdifficultmarketarethosethathaveusedeverymeanspossibletobo
43、ostEBITDAefficientlyandcandemonstratetothenextownerthatthere,smoneyleftonthetable.Thatmeansfundshavetogetsharperatfindingandpullingthevalue-creation“levers”thatgenerateorganicgrowthpricing,salesforceeffectiveness,andGlobalPrivateEquityReport2024productinnovation,tonameafew.Iftheseinsightsweren,tpart
44、oftheoriginalvalue*creationplan,nowisthetimetofocusonthem.Themarkethasbeenabundantlyclearonthis.Thecompaniesthataresellingarenotthosethathavemerelygottenbiggerand/orleaner.Thepremiumisongeneratingstrong,profitable,organicgrowth.Managingacrosstheportfolio.WhilestrategiesfocusedonEBITDAgrowthtaketime,
45、aballooningexitbacklogalsopresentsmoreimmediateconcerns.Fundsneedtodevelopaclear-eyed,pragmaticappraisalofwhereeachportfolioComPanysitsintermsofitsreturnprofile,itscapitalstructure,anditsfutureprospects.Aslongasratesstayelevated,GPshavechoicestomake：Whichcompanieswillreapanacceptablereturnifwesellno
46、w?WhichshouldwesellanywaysoWecanreturncashto1.Ps?Whichcompaniesfaceloanexpirations,andwherecanweeffectively“amendandextend”toreshapeabalancesheetwithouttoomuchpain?WhatareouroptionsforgeneratingliquiditythroughtheburgeoningSeCOndarymarket?Iftheindustry,sgrowinginventoryofunsoldassetsisn,tgoingtobeap
47、roblem,thereareafewthingsyouhavetobelieve.First,withalargevolumeofportfoliocompaniesfacingrefinancinghurdles,itwillbecriticalthatdebtholderstakethestancetheydidin2008-09.1.endersclearlydidn,twantthekeystoabunchoftroubledportfoliocompaniesthenandprobablydon,twantthemnow.Thatleavesopentheopportunityto
48、payapenalty,addsomeequity,andaiveataworkablecapitalstructure.Thesecondthingyouneedtobelieveisthatthereareenoughinnovativesolutionslikecontinuationfunds,securitizations,andNAVfinancingtohelpGPsrecapprizedassetsandwaitforreturnstoripenwhilekeepingeconomicinterestalignedbetweenGPsand1.Ps.Thesecondariesspaceisstillsmallandsomewhatcontroversial.Butitisgrowingrapidlyandrepresentsthekindoffinancialinnovationthatisprivateequity,sspecialty.Professionalizingfund-raising.Aneffectiveportfolioscanshouldleadtoaclear,practicalroadmapforsteeringthefundt
