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1、就PIIEPETERSONINS甯UTEFORINTERNATIONA1.FCONOMICS24-5PoweringthecleanenergyinnovationsystemReinhildeVeugelersMarch2024ABSTRACTReinhildeVeugelers1nonresidentseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,isafullprofessorinthedeportmentofmanagement,strategyandinnovationatKU1.euveninBelgium.S
2、heisalsoaseniorfellowatBnjegel.Thispaperfocusesontheinnovationangleingreenindustrialpolicydesign.Theinnovationsystem,deliveringnewandimprovedtechnologysolutionsforthecleanenergytransition,canbethecornerstoneofasuccessfultransitionthatreconcilesdecarbonization,competitivevaluecreationandjobs,andstrat
3、egicautonomyonaglobalscale.This,however,requirestheinnovationsystemtobeproperlydirected.Thispaperfirstlaysouttheprinciplesofapolicydesignthatproperlysteerstheinnovationsystem.Itthendocumentsthecurrentperformanceoncleanenergyinnovationsandcleanenergypolicymakingglobally,withfocusontheInflationReducti
4、onAct(IRA)andtheNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA)trendsincleantechpolicymakingintheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion,respectively.Theevidenceshowsthattheinnovationsystemisnotatfullpotentialandthereisstillampleroomtoimprovethecurrentcleanenergypolicymakingandinternationalpolicycoordination.JE1.codes:031,038,Q55Ke
5、ywords:climatechange,cleantech,innovation,greeninnovationpolicy,strategicautonomyNote:ThispaperwaspreparedforaconferenceonMoCrQeCQnQmiCImQlicQtionsOfClimQteACtiononJune5-6,2023,atthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics(PIIE).1750MassachusettsAveshington,DC20+1.202.328.9000INTR0DUC110NShiftinge
6、conomiesfromfossilfuel-basedtogreenenergyrepresentsoneofthemostsignificantsocioeconomictransformationsinhistory.Thegreentransformationbringssocioeconomicopportunitiesandchallenges.Whilephasingoutfossilfuel-basedproducts,activities,andjobs,newgreenproducts,activities,andjobsarebeingcreated.Cleanenerg
7、yiskeytofosteringadeepdecarbonizationprocess.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatifcountriesworldwidefullyimplementtheirannouncedenergyandclimate2030pledges,theglobalmarketforkeymass-manufacturedcleanenergytechnologieswillhavetripledinsize.Cleanenergymanufacturingjobswouldmorethandoublefro
8、m6milliontodaytonearly14millionby2030(IEA2023a).Recognizingtheopportunitiesandchallengesofthetransitionfromdirtytocleanenergy,allmajoreconomieshaveventuredintocleanenergyindustrialpolicyandarecompetingfortheirshareoftheglobaleconomicopportunitiesfromcleanenergy,reconcilingtheirdecarbonizationandsoci
9、oeconomictransformationobjectives.)TheCOVID-19outbreakdramaticallyexposedeconomiestotheirvulnerabilities,introducingacallforpoliciesensuringtheresilienceandsecurityofsupplyofinputsconsideredstrategic.ThewarinUkraineandtheweaponizationuofRussiangasandChinesemineralsexacerbatedconcernsaboutsupplysecur
10、ity,particularlyforenergy,especiallyinEurope.Forexample,inMarch2020thenewlyestablishedEuropeanCommissionunderUrsulavonder1.eyenzwithclimategoalsfirmlyanchoredinitsGreenDealandFitfor55package,presenteditsNewIndustrialStrategyforEurope,centeredaroundthetwinningofitsgreenanddigitaltransitions.Chinaslat
11、estFive-Year-Plan(2021-25)hascleanenergyhighonitsradar.AndtheUnitedStateszwithitsInflationReductionAct(IRA)adoptedinAugust2022,introducedamassivepackageofsupportfordeantechtechnologydeployment.TheEuropeanUnioninMay2022launcheditsREPowerEUplantotransitionfastertocleanenergy,diversifyitsenergysupplies
12、,andsaveenergytoimproveitsstrategicautonomyMinenergy.TheUSIRAisacleararticulationofthis,particularlyitslocalcontentrequirementstipulations,whichoutlinedEurope,sresponseinMarch2023withitsNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA).Whiletheconceptofopenstrategicautonomyz,wasalreadypresentedinthe2020NewIndustrialStrateg
13、yforEurope,thishadmostlyChinaasasystemicrivalMontheradar(EC2020).TheNZIAtakesitsstrategicautonomyincleanenergyafewstepsfurther,reactingtothedeepenedgeopoliticalrisks.Allmajoreconomiesarenowcombiningtheirclimateandcleanenergyindustrialpolicieswitheffortstoensurethesecurityofenergysupplyandstrategicau
14、tonomyincleanenergyvaluechains.Intheabsenceofglobalpolicycoordination,thissetsinmotionatrainofmutuallyreinforcingreactivepressurestofurtherthestrategicautonomyangleincountries1cleanenergyindustrialpolicies?Countriesarestillfiguringouthowtoreconcilethemultidimensionalobjectivesofagreenindustrialpolic
15、y,particularlywhenthesedimensionscounteracteachother.Whatarethebestwaystocombinedecarbonizationwitheconomicgrowth,jobs,andworldcompetitiveness,andallthiswithresilienceandsecurityofsupply?Whatisthesocioeconomicallybestwaytoachievedecarbonizationandresilience?Howandhowfartogoinmovingtowardsupplyresili
16、enceandsecurity,andwhatarethecostsinmovingawayfromdecarbonizationandeconomicefficiency?Howfartomoveawayfromahorizontalpolicyapproachshapingframeworkconditionstoensureopenmarkets,suchasastrongcompetitionpolicyandopentrade?Howfartogotowardaverticalapproachtopickingtechnologiesandprojectsdeemedstrategi
17、ctosecuresupply?Thispaperfocusesontheinnovationangleingreenindustrialpolicydesign.Thispaperfocusesoninnovationsforcleanenergyforclimatechange.Buttheinnovationsystemisalsopowerfulforprovidingothernewmitigationsolutionsforclimatechange(suchasnewmaterialsforpackaging),aswellasnewsolutionsforadaptation.
18、Iarguethattheinnovationsystemmustbeatfullcapacitytodelivernewandimprovedtechnologysolutionsforthecleanenergytransition.Inthecontextofbroad,urgent,paradigmaticchangesforeconomies,innovationscanbethecornerstoneofasuccessfultransitionthatreconcilesdecarbonization,competitivevaluecreationandjobs,andstra
19、tegicautonomyonaglobalscale.This,however,requirestheinnovationsystemtobeproperlydirected.Thispaperfirstlaysouttheprinciplesofapolicydesignthatproperlysteerstheinnovationsystem.IthendocumentthecurrentperformanceoncleanenergyinnovationsandcleanenergypolicymakinggloballyandzoominontherecentInflationRed
20、uctionAct(IRA)andNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA)trendsincleantechpolicymakingintheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion,respectively.Thepaperconcludeswithanassessmentofcurrentcleanenergyinnovationpolicymakingandrecommendations.INNOVATIONSFORC1.EANENERGYThissectionlaysouttheprinciplesforanindustrialpolicythathasinn
21、ovationasitscornerstonetodelivernewandimprovedtechnologiesforasuccessfulcleanenergytransitionthatreconcilesdecarbonization,competitivevaluecreationandjobs,andsecurityofsupply.FallaciesaboutInnovationsforCleanEnergyBeforemakingthecaseforinnovationasacornerstoneofcleanenergyindustrialpolicy,threefalla
22、ciesneedtobeputinperspective.Thefirstcomesfromthedegrowthproponents,whoclaimthat,evenwithnewsolutions,economieswillovershootecologicallimits,perpetuatingunsustainablelifestylesandsocialinjustice.Theyreject,theconvenienceoftechnologicaloptimism1(e.g.,Boucheretal.2014)andinsteadfocusonaculturalshiftth
23、atchangesconsumptionpatternsratherthanfindingcleanermeansofproduction.Thefallacyinthisperspectiveisseeingbothoptionsasalternativepathways,ascomplements.Behavioralchangewillbeneededtoshapethesuccessfuluptakeofnewcleansolutionswhileatthesametimenewinnovativesolutionscanhelpmakebehavioralchangeseasier,
24、lesscostly,andmorelikelytobeadopted.Asecondfallacyoftenheardisthatthenecessarytechnologiesalreadyexistanditsnotnecessarytoinvestinfurtherdevelopingtechnologiesandsearchingfornewones.TheIEA(2020a)modelswhatitwouldtaketoreduceemissionstomeetanetzerotargetby2050.Itconsidersasmaturetechnologiesnuclear,h
25、ydropower,wind,andsolar;technologiesinearlyadoptionstillrequiringsubstantialfurtherdevelopmentareheatpumps,electrolysis,andnextgenerationwindandsolar.Othertechnologiesarefurtherfrommarketreadiness,stillinthedemonstrationstageoronlyinthelaborprototypes.Carboncapture,forexample,ismostlyinthedemonstrat
26、ionstage,particularlywhenstored;whenused,manyapplicationsarestillinprototype.Directaircapture(DAC),whetherstoredorused,isintheprototypestage.AndthentherearetechnologiesoutsidethescopeoftheIEAmodeling,becausetheyareroughideasintheconceptstageornoteventhereyet.IntheIEAs2020assessmentmaturetechnologies
27、accountedforonly25percentoftherequiredreductionsfortheNet-ZeroEmissions(NZE)by2050Scenario(IEA2020a).Initsupdatedanalyses,theIEA(2023a)reportedsubstantialprogressincleanenergyinnovationoverthepasttwoyears,suchasonbatterychemistries,butmostlyastrongermarketmomentumformaturetechnologiessuchassolarphot
28、ovoltaics,suchthattheshareofemissionsreductionsin2050fromtechnologiesstillunderdevelopmentwasuonly,35percent.DeSP计ethisprogress,theinnovationjobisnotdoneandtechnologiesinneedofresearchanddevelopmentwillbeessentialtoachieveNZEtargets.Theseinclude,forexample,DACdesigns,algae-basedbiofuels,electricairc
29、raftdesigns,andsolargeoengineering.Examplesoftechnologiesfacingscale-upchallengesincludehydrogen-basedsyntheticfuels;carboncapture,utilization,andstorageforhydrogenproduction;cementorsteelmaking;andhydrogen-basedsteelproduction(IEA2020a).Also,theproductionofnear-zeromaterialsinhard-to-abatesectors(e
30、.g.,cementsteel)stillneedsconsiderableresearchanddevelopment.Andthentherearetheyet-to-be-generatedideasthatmaybethefuturetechnologybreakthroughs.Theywillcertainlybeneedediftheglobaltemperatureincreasesanditseffectsapproachcriticaltippingpoints.Overall,itisfairtosaythatthinkingwealreadyhavewhatittake
31、sisaclearfallacy.Thethirdfallacyisthattheinnovationsystemwilldoitsjobwithinitscurrentformatandthatit,sfinetosimplywaitforittoproducenewand/orimprovedcleanertechnologies.Unfortunately,theresponsetotheenvironmentalcrisiscannotrelyonwaitingforcleanertechnologiestocomeaboutbutinsteadrequiresdesigninggov
32、ernmentinterventionsthatwilltacklethevariousmarketfailuresatdifferentpointsofthetechnologicalchangepipeline.Policypushisneedednotjusttoaccelerateinnovationinthegeneralsense,relyingonstandardundirectedinnovationpolicytools,butalsom。甘erstoguidethedirectionoftechnologicalchange:cleantechnologiesmustimp
33、rove,notjustinabsoluteterms,butrelativetodirtierones(Acemogluetal.2012).InnovationCapacityforReachingCompetitiveandResilientCleanEnergySupplyInnovationcapacityisneededtoreachclimatechangetargets.Atthesametime,innovativeinvestmentsarethecornerstoneofagreenindustrialpolicytargetingcompetitivevaluecrea
34、tionandjobs.Cleanenergyofferingsoriginatingfromnewtechnology-basedinnovationsaremorelikelytosupportcompetitivepositionsonworldmarketsandhencelong-runsustainablejobs,astheseofferingsoriginatefromunique,not-easy-to-replicateinnovativecapacitieswhosereturnscanbeappropriatedthroughlegalorstrategicprotec
35、tionmechanisms.Innovationscanalsoplayacriticalroleinbuildingresilientcleanenergypositions,alleviatingfuturebottlenecksforcleantechnologysupplychains.Examplesofsuchinnovationsincludenewproductionmethodsordesignsthatreduceoravoidtheuseofmaterialscriticalincurrentvaluechains,anddevelopingnewcost-effect
36、ivealternativematerials(e.g.,bioplastics)Alternativechemistriesformakingelectricvehiclebatteriesareanimportantexampleofsuchmaterialsubstitution.Animportantgoalofbatteryinnovationeffortsistodiversifydesignstoreducerelianceonlithium,thecriticalmineralthatisleastsubstitutablewithcurrenttechnologiesandt
37、heonefacingthelargestpotentialshortfallinsupplyinupcomingyearsbasedonplannedprojects.ornewmodularproductiontechnologiesthatcaneasilySW计Chbetweenmaterialneeds.Anotherimportantlineofcleantechinnovationsforresilienceinvolvesimprovingthereuseandrecyclingofcriticalmaterials.TechnologySovereigntyWhenrelyi
38、ngonneworimprovedcleanenergysolutionsthatofferresilience,theinnovationsystemitselfneedstoberesilient.Newconstellationsofinternationaltechnologicalleadershipwillemerge,whichmayleadtonewdependencies.Theproblemoftechnologydependencyisofparticularimportanceforsystemicallyrelevanttechnologiesthatareofimp
39、ortancetoabroadspectrumofuse(so-calledkeyorfoundationaltechnologies).Theseincludedigitaltechnologies(e.g.,chips,quantumcomputing,Al)aswellasotherkeytechnologiesformaterialsandlifesciences(likesyntheticbiology).Technologicalsovereigntyis,ontheonehand,aboutthedegreetowhichonecanmasteracertaintechnolog
40、yinitsapplicationanduse,and,ontheother,aboutthedegreetowhichitisavailableoraccessible(Cantner2023).Whenthebesttechnologyisnotavailabledomesticallyandhastoacquiredelsewhere,thedegreeoftechnologicalsovereigntyresultsfromthequalityofone,sabsorptivecapabilities(mastery)andtheconditionsforacquiringthetec
41、hnology(availability).Vthformalandinformalmechanismsinplaceforthediffusionoftechnologicalknow-howovertime(suchasthepatentsystem),thecriticalconditionfortechnologicalsovereigntyismorelikelytobeabsorptivecapabilityratherthanavailability.Measuresagainsttheuseofforeignsuperiortechnologiesandinsupportofr
42、eshoringanddomesticallybuildingR&Dcapacitiesmightensurethattechnologiesandgoodsaredevelopedandproduceddomestically.However,thepotentiallong-runefficiencygainsfromsuchsupportmeasuresneedtobetradedwiththeshort-runinefficienciesfromforgoingtheadvantagesofqualitativelybettertechnologiesavailableelsewher
43、e.Themorematureandestablishedanenvisionedtechnologyisontheinternationallevel,thehighertheseshort-runinefficienciesandthelowerthedynamicefficiencygainsthatcanbeenvisionedbygoingforlocaldeployment.Supportforfurtherdevelopingabsorptivecapacitiesofthebestavailablefrontiertechnologiesmaybeabe甘erpolicyave
44、nuetobuildtechnologyresilience.MakingtheInnovationSystemWorkforGreenIndustriesTheinnovationsystemcanbeapowerfulforcetoreachthemultidimensionalityofcleanenergyindustrialpolicyobjectives,deliveringnewandimprovedsolutionsfordecarbonization,competitiveness,andsecurityofsupply.Butthesystemneedstobesuppor
45、tedandsteeredintherightdirection.Thissectionsketchesthespecificsofcleantechnologiesforinnovationpolicymaking,outliningtheprinciplesofagreeninnovation-basedindustrialpolicyandhowitshouldguidetheinnovationsystem.Followingaresomekeyprinciplesforsuchapolicy,usinginsightsfromthenewindustrialpolicyperspec
46、tiveadvocatedbyDaniRodrik(2014).Hetakesamultidimensionalmultiinstrument,multiactorperspective,viewingindustrialpolicymakingasaprocessofinstitutionalizedpublic-privatecollaborationanddialogueratherthanatop-downapproachofallocatingfundstoafewwinners.InvolvementofPrivateandCivilSocietyCentraltoagreenin
47、novationpolicyisforpublicentitiestomobilizetheinnovationcapacityatbothpublicresearchentitiesandprivatefirmstodevelopanddeploynewsolutions,throughpublicprivatepartnerships.Toproperlymobilizetheprivatesectorinsuchpartnerships,abalancedsetofsticksandcarrotsisneededtoincentivizethesharingofresources,ris
48、ks,andinformationwhileavoidingrent-seeking.Inviewofthebroadchallengesfaced,thesepublicprivatepartnershipswillhavetocoveralargersetofscientificandtechnologyareasandprivatesectorareasthaninotherareasofinnovationandindustrialpolicy.Becauseclimatechangeisabigtransformativechange,thetransitionwillalsoreq
49、uiretheinvolvementofcivilsociety,morethaninotherareasofinnovationandindustrialpolicy.MixingandCoordinatingInnovationPolicyInstrumentsandEnvironmentalPolicyInstrumentsToppingupclassicmarketfailuresandknowledgeexternalitieswithenvironmentalexternalitiesrepresentsasignificantchallengeforgreeninnovationpolicy,particularlyastheseexternalitiesmayhavecomplexreinforcinginteractions.Totacklethismultidimensionalmarketfailures,amixofpolicyinstrumentshastobeused,extendingb
