2024趋势报告:可再生能源和太阳能研究报告-47正式版.docx

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1、WRatedPowerapartofJENVERUS2024TrendsReport:Renewab1.eEnergyandSo1.arResearchReportIndex05Forewordfrom29Trendsacrding51Keysuccess57DeepdiveintoourCEOtoindustryfactorsofaRatedPowerstatsprofessiona1.s1.eadingenergy09Executivep1.ayerCanngprojecttrendssummaryStoragetePV,f1.oatingsdar)i1.Inves1.merrtindg博

2、MianBtSScha1.1.engesDigftaftzaUonandautomation85Conc1.usionGndsaturationNotaWeinnvckxs,Evestmerrtinastrong1.aborandinstaUHymate11ate.andtrendsforce89WrapupPermittingandreguUonDesirednewfenewabteQYefSifk1.ionofregoa1.ada8soperations92ReferencesIncreasedsts1.andavaiabi1.itySkitedpersonne1.1.ackofgemen

3、tincentivesForewordfromourCEOThepastyearhasbeenates!amen!totheresi1.ienceandadaptabi1.ityo1ourdustrya11v1.s1.anever-changinggtoba1.energyCnSkWhesomeimmediatopressureshaveeased,theOngemggeopo1.itica1.unrest.PaQCgWthepcotongedConnietHUkraineandIensonsintheMidd1.eEast.COMrUJeto*npectenergymarketsandeco

4、nomiesWOfIdWDespitethesecha1.1.enges,theBGVQWeenergysectorhasexpenenoedsignificantgtoba1.gwth1.particu1.ar1.yiSotefPVandGecMCvecfies.TheIEAestimatesthatnear1.y90%toftota1.investmentine1.ectricitygenerationv/entRewardsImemissionsPeWerin2023.atrendthathasbeentrackingforsometime,andusisnotoduetothepush

5、for1.oweremissionsbuta1.sothundeniabteeconomiccaseformaturec1.eanenergytechno1.ogies.Themonthejourneytowardsac1.eanerenergyfutureManagingsupp1.ychaindependencies,especia1.1.ykxcr*ca1.minera1.sikeRhkim,coba1.1.nk:ke1.andrareearts.remainsakeycha1.1.enge.Oureffortstodiversifyand20WRxti*M*cR1InnOVaiein(

6、hisareaMi1.1.haveabigSyintheresJienceofc1.eanenergysupp1.ychainsnthefuture.Moth6PponentofthistransitionistheadvancementandiniegrationofbatteryenergystoragesystemsBESS).Iheabktytostoreandstribu1energyweneededw*rtmaketosupp1.ymoreconsistent,mitigating京Xneofthes1.rnonthegridintandemwttheesca1.atingdema

7、ndforrenewab1.einsta1.1.ations.1.ookingaheadIothefuture,waskedenergytns1.ryprfosskxic*stoshamhrthoughtsonanumberoftopes,asamesnsofunderstandingthecurrents1.ateoftesector.Assomerecumngthemesnthesurveyresponsesshow,therearebothc1.earcha1.1.engesthatneedtobeso1.vedandexcitingin11ov丽CSjustarovndtheOXn(X

8、WereexcitedtoseeerethingsgonextVPPo*w&RWcWJbs.E110AndcoFour*.RakaJPcwwExecutiveSummary2023vsayearwfe,emuchprogresswasmadeintherenewab1.eindustry.FromategIs1.ativeperspective,theEuropeanUnionadoptedanewEnergyDirectwe?,raisingthw2030renewab1.econsumptiontargetto42.5%from32%.Aithesametime,overS27Obi1.1

9、.ioni11estmentsweremademmeUSInte18monthssincetheInftatKx1.ReductionAct,WBSintroducedin2022Theso1.arPVmarkethasPartieU1.ar1.yf1.ourished1.argeuti1.ity-sca1.eandsma1.1.dsuibu1.edso1.arPVsystemswereestimatedtomakeupvo-thirdsofthe2023projectedmcrease小g1.oba1.renewab1.eCapaci1.y4.Despite1.isgrowth,thecos

10、tshavef1.uctuatedthroughouttheyear,witPfBoehikesdnvebyvanousfactors,nefudingiatx)randinverters.Somesourcesindicatethatwindpowercou1.denduphavingaICWfir1.COeInsnsoarn2024mcertainregionsfortesamereasons.ThatS血SdarPVcontinuestohavea29%1.owerIeve1.izedcostofenergy(1.COE)thanthocheapestfue1.a1.ternatives

11、reportedbyBkxxnbergNEF1teprojectiono1.tota1.so1.armodu1.ecapacityInS1.aItedin2023aroundtheWOrtdis413GM.Thisrepceseniedamassive58%growthfromtheamountinsta1.1.edr2022,Whehitse1.fwasana1.most42%ncreasefromthepreviousyearThistrajectorytooks阳Iocontinue.Wrthhhtargetsandprojectionsbeingmade.AreportfromAuro

12、raEnergyReSearchrearterinthyeersuggestedthatEuropevsontracktoinsta1.1.asdarPoWercapacityof475GWbetweenrovand2030.Meanwhi1.e,attheCOP28conferenceinDubai.Wodd1.eadersagreedtotrip1.etheg1.oba1.renev/ab1.eenergycapacity52030andhistorica*yagreodtocommittotransition初myfromfo&si1.KJeSomeinterestingtrendswe

13、renotedinRatedPer,spftatfcnthisyear.Tbeckxnrancofbifacia1.mooes2024TfHJc1.R*mwO*RSwM2汩心Iqxt,ScUrEx5SXeGnbHiUpcomingrenewab1.escha1.1.engessectorforthecomingyear?arethebiggestcha1.1.engesfortherenewab1.eSckcMur*dffU)1.aMpt:r4rRf1.tSknrgardSUarM.nKapct1.Gridsaturationandinstabi1.ityUke1.astyearsurvey,

14、yidSatUratonandhs1.abiityOntheotherhand,marryareasworfdzk!eareisthenmberonecd1.engefespondencsSeefcrattheindustryn2024.667%ofthoseSUNeyedrkofenergysortfaU.Wi1.hreportsfromstatedareaasanissue,upfrom64%1.astNERCyear.c1.aimingthattwo-th1.fdsofNorthAmericasInareasoftheWOrIdMWegroonenergysupp1.nefabterth

15、roughoutenergyperiodsPeWtfagnISpartjartyhIOCaJgridsareatofex1.remeiyhighdemandther1.imits-TheyrequirefurtherreforcenenttomanageteInf1.UXofvariab1.ePovasourcesTbmanageexcessandSbortfa1.sinwthoutcurtai1.ingtheotect11otySUPPbe1.ectricitysupp1.y,there部anurgentca1.forAKhoughcurtai1.mentra1.esofanatteree%

16、aeincreasedenergy(VRE)inte1.arger,moreinfrastructureandstoragecapacity.es1.abKhedMany馆newabkjenergymarketsarerisingOvGr3.rou11Cnsarc1.ookingtoCfetributedMindgeneration,andsatarra1.esareS1.f1.reabeiy1.ew.betweenmorerobust1.oca1.gr心.andsma1.1.erp1.ants1.5%and4%心MostmarketshavebeentoWOfk1.ng11sresppBim

17、pm11ti11gnewtor奴8tirCurtai1.men1.ratesQTWthe1.asttegis1.atkdecade,butthegeographcn1.dpa11Cybetweenandreducingregu1.akxybarriers.generatxxiandn3umtionhasbeenanufaoda1.teObstaofefxmanyregicns.Asso1.armanufactiringCOmnue3toboomacrossGoom11wtshaveimptenwitedmeasurestotheUSAandgreennestmerrtsbecomemibga1

18、.ecurtafrneu,sucasthehigh-vo1.tagemoredrectC1.rTentntheUK.theEnergy1.mba1.aprea1.entinEurope,andacrosstheWortd.Market(E1.M)inCa1.ifornia,ortheincentivizingdemandforrenewab1.eenergyinsta1.1.a1.ionsba11ete8inCNe.wi1.contnuetoincrease.Ifnotcareyp1.anned,thsgrossingdemandWi1.co11trfctotosa!rafonandrther

19、ins1.ab1.ty.Permittingandregu1.ationOverha1.f(56%)oftherespondentsseepermittingandregtionasacaengeforthercnwaWeenergysector,butthisisdownfrom64%1.astye*Thsuggeststhata1.thoughthisissueStiBneedstobeso1.ved,theworkisa1.readyunde(Vy.Tho2022tmpofcryemergencyEUregu1.ationdesignedIostream1.erenewab1.eproj

20、ectpermitsisschedu1.edtocometoanendin2024.however,thereareca1.1.sfromsevera1.countriestoextendf1.toaorimoretZTeeXsinthefiureWithotherregionsfoovi11gsuitbyimptemeningnewIar心andreducingExjfeaucratchurdaestherehopethatstaedprojectscou1.dstartmoving.Investorsanddevetopersrequireregu1.atorySUMtyIoconfide

21、nt1.ypourresourcesvtonewventures.TmeansthatCreabngmoreefficientIicensmgprocessesneedstobeaPrKXiWAtthesametime,theremustbeaba1.anceofenvro1111nta1.safeguardsv/iththe11cdtofastrackapprova1.sfornewprojectsWhenpermittingisacomp1.exaod1.engthyprocess,investmentrsoftendeterred,andprogressis3BddownWhenregu

22、1.ationswide1.ydifferacrossregions,tisaddsanotherteyecofcomptety.A1.1.attsmakesItharderforrenewab1.eenergyproviderstogrowaodexpandtheirOperabons.20WT,”HfpctWMrfrx*c*tSki1.1.edpersonne1.Overathird(35.7%)ofpurveyrepstatxedSpecHicaIIytotheneedsoftherenewab1.eindustry.Comprehensiveprogramsmu&1.bedevekpe

23、dthatareaimedatattractingtaentandnurturingandreiairungAwithConbnuousre-andup-skihng.engagementandpurposefu1.careerpathsSimi1.arprogramswi1.1.needIobedeve1.opedtohe1.pexpandtheSki1.1.setoftheexistingrevBbteWOdddfCeBeingadeptntecotogy.managcmontacumen,digita1.proficiency,andregatocyUnderstandmgw1.1.a1

24、.1.beimportantmovingforward.Trendsaccordingtoindustryprofessiona1.s30iCC*TfwwtR*4t4in*Rm18fpkoSu3iAfAbaOngA9B5*%rxWC*Tfw*wrtRemt*n*RMd84mRmovOifpxico1.kingattheirxjstryrtse1.f,40.5%agreedthatso1.aristhesectorwithinre11evabtesv/iththebggeugraaTPOientiaJoverSeneximeyearStoragewasdose1.ybehindat31%,Whi

25、Iegreenhydrogen(15.5%),theghd(6%),andNnd(3.6%)roundedouttheresponsesStoragetechno1.ogies(BESS)ThoseiAtorespondedtothesurveyidentifiedbatterystoragetegdep1.oymentcostsofstoogetchno1.ojs.andoc5rxXdtatduetoits1.ong-termpotentia1.,themarketCurren1.1.yunderestimatesVak1.e(BESS)iscrucia1.forthesuccessofre

26、newab1.eenergies.Themorestorage,thebetter;morestoragemeans1.essnatura1.gasandnuc1.earp1.antsonstandbytofu1.fi1.1.thecapacityneedsofthegridathigh1.oad.1.kdnEnergyBESSisacritica1.steptowardsmorerenewab1.eenergyintegrationandgridStabi1.rty.Pw9e*Mre&恭67,*The1.ifespanofBESSsti1.1.requiresmajorimprovement

27、sanddoeshaveenvironmenta1.issuesattheendofits1.ife.Weneedtofinda1.ternativestothescarce1.ithium.MaGCySMtoOKcBcOfiraSo1.xFarSrRenewab1.etechno1.ogieswi1.1.havenochoicebuttohybridizewithstoragesystems.Thegridisnotsufficient1.yreadytoreceivethe1.argeamountofrenewab1.esexpected.GitarkMBorwaRcgEnE72024Ti

28、Renewab1.e1.egis1.ationTheinf1.ationReductionAct(IRA)theUnitedStatesandthRerwzaUeEnergyDrecKewf1.itheEuropeanUnkxiareOTeG1.Hpositiveskxtheindustry,actingascata1.ystsandi11centiingmorerenewab1.eenergyprojects.Severa1.respondentsempasaedteimportanceoftheIRAinve1.ytransformingtheUSmarketTbeEUOrectrveis

29、sconassettingfundamenta1.frameworksandtargets,a1.thoughthereareconcernsaboutwhetheritissufficienttomotraimemberstatestoreachthesegoa1.s,1.arge1.yduetorisinggaspricesandOpoftbea1.tensionsIheEU$ComEmem1.oincreasingrenewawesproductionhasbeenfffced.tjtmemfcerstatesmustactquick1.y.Thesentimentfromtherest

30、oftheWorIdshowedacommonIhemothata1.thoughtbirgovernmentsmtghtbeenactingpociesthatboosttheindustrythereISsti1.PteMyIobedonetoexpediteprojectpipe1.inesandhe1.pacieveambsnationa1.renv田bstargets.fdkfpc*tf*CM0ft*taMcR*tIRAgivestheUSAabigopportunitytogrow.TheGreenDea1.needstoopenmoretothespecificsoftheunt

31、riestobesuccessfu1.againsttheUSAproposa1.CoroiruNwwSowdMoremanufacturerswi1.1.haveachanceintheUS.Ontheotherhand,as1.ightoverproductionwi1.1.bringpricesdowne1.sewhere.O91.otornros,SENS-qo-ySrEnr9ySM1.nmG11i1NXTnaMaMpt:WmrmMiCnaq,rdciarMartMapc1A1.ternaterenewab1.edep1.oyments(Agri-PV,f1.oatingso1.ar,

32、offshorewind)Astheindustryprofessiona1.sconsideredattematePVdep1.oyments,thereWaSamixedout1.ookonagn-PV.Whi1.esomerespondentsseeashavingthepotentia1.forsubstantia1.growth,particartyGEuropeandregionswith1.andconstraints,ghinvestmentcostsassociatedwithf1.oatingPV.itisseenashavingsnHicantpotenUai.espec

33、ia1.1.yincoasta1.BgeOnSorareaswith1.imited1.andava1.abi1.ity.The11oabngso1.arPVmarketisexpectedtovary1romregiontoregion,anditssuccesswi1.1.bettedtoso1.dregatxa11di11frstrc1.rimpvem0Es.Offeb(Tovi11dYGSateoVieWedoptimistica1.1.ywthhighimpactincertainregionsdespdeitsperceivedhhcosts.Offshorewindhashighpotentia1.,especia1.1.yinmarketsthatdonothavethepossibi1.ityofgrowingtheironshoreoperations.Now.themaincha1.1.engessistofCAPEXandOP

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