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1、11S,(Case:NeshieWakulukNeshieWakulukisaninvestmentstrategistwhodevelopscapitalmarketexpectationsforaninvestmentfirmthatinvestsacrossassetclassesandglobalmarkets.Wakulukstartedhercareerwhentheglobalmarketswereexperiencingsignificantvolatilityandpoorreturns;asaresult,sheisnowcarefultobaseherconclusion
2、sonobjectiveevidenceandanalyticalprocedurestomitigateanypotentialbiases.Wakuluk,sapproachtoeconomicforecastingutilizesastructuralmodelinconjunctionwithadiffusionindextodeterminethecurrentphaseofacountry,sbusinesscycle.Thisapproachhasproducedsuccessfulpredictionsinthepast,thusWakulukhashighconfidence
3、inthepredictions.WakulukalsodetermineswhetheranyadjustmentsneedtobemadetoherinitialestimatesoftherespectiveaggregateeconomicgrowthtrendsbasedonhistoricalratesofgrowthforCountriesXandY(bothdevelopedmarkets)andCountryZ(adevelopingmarket).Exhibit1summarizesWakuluk,spredictions:Case:NeshieWakulukSExhibi
4、t 1 Prediction for Current Phase of the Business CycleCountry XCountry YCountry ZInitial RecoveryContractionLate UpswingWakulukassumesshort-terminterestratesadjustwithexpectedinflationandareprocyclical.Wakulukreviewsthehistoricalshort-terminterestratetrendsforeachcountry,whichfurtherconfirmsherpredi
5、ctionsshowninExhibit1.Case:NeshieWakulukWakulukdecidestofocusonCountryYtodeterminethepathofnominalinterestrates,thepotentialeconomicresponseofCountryY,seconomytothispath,andthetimingforwhenCountryY,seconomymaymoveintothenextbusinesscycle.Wakulukmakesthefollowingobservations：cfafrmcpacmavideo,weixin:
6、804283381Observation1MonetarypolicyhasbeenpersistentlylooseforCountryYwhilefiscalpolicieshavebeenpersistentlytight.Observation2CountryYisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasetransferpaymentsandintroduceamoreprogressivetaxregime.Observation3ThecurrentyieldcurveforCountryYsuggeststhatthebusinesscycleisinthe
7、slowdownphase,withbondyieldsstartingtoreflectcontractionaryconditions.WakulukdecidestofocusonCountryYtodeterminethepathofnominalinterestrates,thepotentialeconomicresponseofCountryY,seconomytothispath,andthetimingforwhenCountryY,seconomymaymoveintothenextbusinesscycle.Wakulukmakesthefollowingobservat
8、ions:Observation1MonetarypolicyhasbeenpersistentlylooseforCountryY,whilefiscalpolicieshavebeenpersistentlytight.Observation2CountryYisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasetransferObservation3ThecurrentyieldcurveforCountryYsuggeststhatthebusinesscycleisintheslowdownphase,withbondyieldsstartingtoreflectcont
9、ractionaryconditions.SCase:NeshieWakulukWakulukmostlikelyseekstomitigatewhichofthefollowingbiasesindevelopingcapitalmarketforecasts?Case:NeshieWakulukSolution:AWakulukstartedhercareerwhentheglobalmarketswereexperiencingsignificantvolatilityandpoorreturns.Sheiscarefultobaseherconclusionsonobjectiveev
10、idenceandanalyticalprocedurestomitigatepotentialbiases,whichsuggestssheisseekingtomitigateanavailabilitybias.Availabilitybiasisthetendencytobeoverlyinfluencedbyeventsthathaveleftastrongimpressionand/orforwhichitiseasytorecallanexample.C.imposesnoconsistencyofanalysisacrossitemsoratdifferentpointsint
11、ime.SCase:NeshieWakulukSolution:BWakluk,sapproachtoeconomicforecastingutilizesbothastructuralmodel(e.g.,aneconometricmodelapproach)andadiffusionindex(e.g.laleadingindicator-basedapproach).However,thetwoapproacheshaveweaknesses:Aneconometricmodelapproachmaygiveafalsesenseofprecision,andaleadingindica
12、tor-basedapproachcanprovidefalsesignals.Twostrengthsofthechecklistapproachareitsflexibilityandlimitedcomplexity,althoughoneweaknessisthatitimposesnoconsistencyofanalysisacrossitemsoratdifferentpointsintime.Case:NeshieWakulukWakulukismostlikelytomakesignificantadjustmentstoherestimateofthefuturegrowt
13、htrendforwhichofthefollowingcountries?CountryZisadevelopingmarket.Less-developedmarketsarelikelytobeundergoingmorerapidstructuralchanges,whichmayrequiretheanalysttomakemoresignificantadjustmentsrelativetopasttrends.Case:NeshieWakuluk国BasedonExhibit1andWakuluk,sassumptionsaboutshort-termratesandexpec
14、tedinflation,short-termratesinCountryXaremostlikelytobe:Case:NeshieWakulukSolution:ACountryXispredictedtobeintheinitialrecoveryphaseofthebusinesscycle,whichsuggestsshort-term(moneymarket)ratesareloworbottoming.Inflationisprocyclical.Itacceleratesinthelaterstagesofthebusinesscyclewhentheoutputgaphasc
15、losed,anditdecelerateswhenalargeoutputgapputsdownwardpressureonwagesandprices,whichoftenhappensduringarecessionortheearlyyearsafterward.Aslongasshort-terminterestratesadjustwithexpectedinflation,cashisessentiallyazero-duration,inflation-protectedassetthatearnsafloatingrealrate,whichistypicallyprocyc
16、lical.Wakulukassumesshortterminterestratesadjustwithexpectedinflationandareprocyclical.ThUs,short-termratesaremostlikelytobelowandbottomingifCountryXisintheinitialrecoveryphaseofthebusinesscycle.SCase:NeshieWakulukBasedonExhibitLwhatcapitalmarketeffectisCountryZmostlikelytoexperienceintheshort-term?
17、B.Monetarypolicybecomesrestrictive.C.Theyieldcurvesteepenssubstantially.Case:NeshieWakulukSolution:BWakuluk,smodelpredictsthatCountryZ,sbusinesscycleiscurrentlyinthelateupswingphase.Inthelateupswingphase,interestratesaretypicallyrisingasmonetarypolicybecomesmorerestrictive.Cyclicalassetsmayunderperf
18、orm,whereastheyieldcurveisexpectedtocontinuetoflatten.BasedonObservation1,fiscalandmonetarypoliciesinCountryYwillA.lownominalrates.B.highnominalrates.C.eitherhighorlownominalrates.Case:NeshieWakulukSSolution:CMonetarypolicyhasbeenpersistentlylooseforCountryYwhilefiscalpolicieshavebeenpersistentlytig
19、ht.Withthiscombinationofpersistentlylooseandtightpolicies,theimpactcouldleadtohigherorlowernominalrates(typicallylabeledasmid-nominalrates).Case:NeshieWakulukBasedonObservation2,whatimpactwillthepolicychangeshaveonthetrendrateofgrowthforCountryY?CountryYisexpectedtosignificantlyincreasetransferpayme
20、ntsandintroduceamoreprogressivetaxregime.Bothofthesechangesarepro-growthgovernmentpoliciesandshouldhaveapositiveimpactonthetrendrateofgrowthforabusinesscyclethatisinslowdownorcontraction.Transferpaymentshelpmitigatefluctuationsindisposableincomeforthemostvulnerablehouseholds,whileprogressivetaxregim
21、esimplythattheeffectivetaxrateontheprivatesectorisprocyclical(i.e.,risingastheeconomyexpandsandfallingastheeconomycontracts),cfafrmcpacmavideo,weixin:804283381SCase:NeshieWakulukBasedonObservation3,WakulukmostlikelyexpectsCountryYsyieldcurveintheneartermto:Case:NeshieWakulukSolution:CThecurrentyield
22、curveforCountryYsuggeststhatthebusinesscycleisintheslowdownphase(curveisflattoinverted),withbondyieldsstartingtoreflectcontractionaryconditions(i.e.,bondyieldsaredeclining).Thecurvewillmostlikelysteepennearterm,consistentwiththetransitiontothecontractionaryphaseofthebusinesscycle,andbethesteepestonthecuspoftheinitialrecoveryphase.
