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1、BANKFORINTERNATIONALSETTLEMENTSBISWorkingPapersNo973Whatdoesdigitalmoneymeanforemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies?byErikFeyen,JonFrost,HarishNatarajanandTaraRiceMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentOctober2021JELclassification:E42,E51,E58lF31,G28,033.Keywords:fintech,stablecoins,crypto-assets,e-money,cent
2、ralbankdigitalcurrencies,emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,financialinclusion,remittances,payments.BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicali
3、nterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org).BankforInternationalSettlements2021.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1020-095
4、9(print)ISSN1682-7678(online)Whatdoesdigitalmoneymeanforemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies?1ErikFeyen,JonFrost,HarishNatarajanandTaraRiceAbstractProposalsforglobalstablecoinshaveputamuch-neededspotlightondeficienciesinfinancialinclusion,andincross-borderpaymentsandremittancesinemergingmarketanddev
5、elopingeconomies(EMDEs).Yetstablecoininitiativesarenopanacea.WhiletheymayachieveadoptionincertainEMDEs,theymayalsoposeparticulardevelopment,macroeconomicandcross-borderchallengesforthesecountriesandhavenotbeentestedatscale.SeveralEMDEauthoritiesareweighingthepotentialcostsandbenefitsofcentralbankdig
6、italcurrencies(CBDCs).Wearguethatthedistinctionbetweentokenbasedandaccount-basedmoneymatterslessthanthedistinctionbetweencentralbankandnon-centralbankmoney.Fast-movingfintechinnovationsthatarebuilton,orimprovetheexistingfinancialplumbingmayaddressmanyoftheissuesinEMDEsthatbothprivatestablecoinsandCB
7、DCsaimtotackle.Keywords:fintech,stablecoins,crypto-assets,e-money,centralbankdigitalcurrencies,emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,financialinclusion,remittances,payments.JELcodes:E42,E51fE58,F31,G28,033.WewouldliketothankWphaelAuer1StijnClaessens,SebastianDoerr,MateiDohotaru,AlfonsoGarciaMora,Leon
8、ardoGambacorta1KeithHart,MarcHollanders,YiraMascaro,LeandroMedina,FritzSchneider,HyunSongShinandMaheshUttamchandaniforhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.WethankHaiweiCao1GiulioCornelliandAlexandraEndforexcellentresearchassistance.ThisCh叩terisbasedonFeyenetal(2020),andispublishedinRRau,RWardropandLZingale
9、s(2021),ThePalgraveHandbookofTechnologicalFinance,London:PalgraveMacmillan.TheviewsinthischapterarethoseoftheauthorsonlyanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheWorldBankGrouportheBankforInternationalSettlements.EFeyen,WorldBankGroup,Washington,D.C,UnitedStates,e-mail:efeijenworldbank.orgJFrost,BankforIn
10、ternationalSettlements,Basel,Switzerland,andCambridgeCentreforAlternativeFinance,Cambridge,UK,e-mail:jon.frostbis.orgHNatarajan,WorldBankGroup,Washington,D.C,UnitedStates,e-mail:hnatarajanworldbank.orgTRice,BankforInternationalSettlements,Basel,Switzerland,e-mail:tara.ricebis.orgIntroductionFromthea
11、ncientIndianrupya,tocacaobeansintheAztecempire,tothefirstpapermoneyinChina,moneyandpaymentshavebeenevolvingforcenturies.Thecountriesthataretodaycalledemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),whichcollectivelymakeup84%oftheworldspopulationbutonly37%ofGDPatcurrentprices,arenoexception.Inrecentdecad
12、es,physicalcashandclaimsoncommercialbanks(i.e.deposits)havebecomethemainvehiclesforretailpaymentsaroundtheworld(Bechetal.,2018).Comparedtophysicalcash,commercialbankmoneyprovidesmoresafety,enablesremotetransactions,andallowsbankstoextendotherusefulfinancialservices;thismayultimatelybenefiteconomicef
13、ficiencyandenhanceeconomicpolicyoversight(ListfieldandMontes-Negretf1994).Yetforretailusers,especiallyinEMDEs,commercialbankmoneyposesatleastthreekeychallenges.First,itrequiresabankaccount-accesstowhichisrising(Graph1,left-handpanel)butisstillfarfromuniversal.Thepooroftenlacktheproperdocumentationto
14、complywithbankscustomerduediligence(CDD)requirements.Insomecases,theylivetoofarfromabankbranch,orfindthemaintenancecostsorminimumbalancestooonerous.E-money,whichcanbeseenasavariantofcommercialbankmoney,seekstoaddressthesechallenges.2TogetherwithsimplifiedCDDandnetworksofagents,e-moneyhasimprovedacce
15、sstotransactionservices.Stillincountrieswherebankaccountsande-moneyhavenotreacheduniversallevels,thepoorrelyheavilyoncash.Thisrelianceoncashhelpsperpetuateinformality,alsoknownas“theshadoweconomy”-economicactivitieshiddenfromauthoritiesformonetary,regulatoryandinstitutionalreasons(MedinaandSchneider
16、,2019).3Indeed,informalityishigherincountrieswithloweruseofdigitalpaymentslikebankaccountsande-money(Graph1,right-handpanel).E-moneyrefersheretomonetaryvaluethatisstoredelectronicallyonreceiptoffunds,andwhichisusedformakingpaymenttransactions.Inalmostallcountries,e-moneybalancesareheldincommercialba
17、nks.AnotableexceptionisChinawherefundsareheldwiththecentralbank.Foraseminalworkoninformality,seeHart(1973).Hartdescribedtheeconomicactivitiesoflow-incomeurbanworkersinAccra,Ghana,includingcomplexandvariedincome-generatingactivitiesoperatingoutsidetheformallegalsystem.Accesstobankaccountsandbankservi
18、cesisheterogeneous,butrising20406080100Per centInformality is lower where digital payments are higherPer cent, as of 2017A MoPESShareofadultswithabankaccountisrising201120142017USandCanadaLatinAmericaandCaribbeanEuropeandCentralAsiaMiddleEastandNorthAfricaEastAsiaandPacificSub-SaharanAfricaSouthAsia
19、Peopleusingdigitalpayments(%ofpopulationages15+)HHI vs Lerner index2929702071217Advanced economies Emerging market anddeveloping economiesSource:WorldBankFindexdata;MedinaandSchneider(2019).Second,despiteimprovementsinrecentyears,financialinstitutionsinmanyEMDEsfacelimitedcompetition(Graph2,left-han
20、dpanel).Thisconcentratedmarketpoweroftenresultsinhighermark-ups(Graph2,right-handpanel),i.e.moreexpensivefinancialservices.Concentrationcanalsoresultinlimitedincentivesforinnovationovertime.Togetherwithhouseholds*recollectionandpastexperiencesofcostlybankingandfinancialcrises,bankingsectorconcentrat
21、ioncancontributetoalackoftrustintheformalfinancialsystem.Bankingsectorconcentration,whiledeclining,isassociatedwithhighermark-upsGraph2Bankingsectormark-upsacrosscountries1.Herfindahl-HirschmanIndex(HHI)Herfindahl-HirschmanIndexAdvancedeconomies.EmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesSolidlinesdenoteth
22、emedianandthedashlinesdenotethe5,handthe95thpercentiles.2Datafor2014.Source:WorldBank.Third,manyhouseholdsinEMDEsdependonlow-valuecross-borderremittancesfromfamilymembersworkingabroad.RemittancestoEMDEsreached$551billionin2019.Suchflowsexceedofficialdevelopmentassistancebyafactorofthree,and-priortot
23、heCovid-19pandemic-wereontracktoovertakeforeigndirectinvestmentinflows(Rathaetal.,2019;Graph3,left-handpanel).Specialisedmoneytransferoperators(MTOs)haveemergedtoprovidenearinstantaneoustransfers,andtoreducethecostsforsendingmoneyovertime.Yetitstillcostsabout$14onaveragetosend$200backhome(WorldBank,
24、2019;Graph3,right-handpanel).Thisislargelybecauseoftheneedtoconvertremittancesfromandtocashonbothsidesofthetransaction(alsoknownaswcash-in,cash-out1).Thisarrangementrequiresmanualprocessing(includingverifyingthecustomersidentity)andaphysicaloffice(e.g.,suchasanMTOorpostoffice).Micro,smallandmedium-s
25、izedenterprises(MSMEs)andindividualsparticipatingincross-bordertradeinEMDEscanfaceevenhigherfeesandwaittimesthanlargerretailcustomers.Graph 3Remittanceflowsareincreasing US and Canada Europe and Central AsiaEast Asia and Pacific South AsiaAverage cost of sending USD by regionPer centLatin America an
26、d Caribbean Sub-Saharan AfricaMiddle East and North AfricaSource:WorldBank:Remittancepricesworldwidereports.Onespecificproblemforcross-borderpaymentsandremittancesisthedeclineincorrespondentbanking.Correspondentbankingisanarrangementunderwhichonebank(correspondent)holdsdepositsownedbyotherbanks(ther
27、espondents)andprovidesthosebankswithpaymentandotherservices(CPMI,2016).Mostmodesofcross-borderpayments-includingbanksandspecialisedremittanceserviceproviders-dependonthecorrespondentbankingsystem,whichisoftenslowandopaque.Moreover,inthelastfewyears,correspondentbankshavebecomelesswillingtoprovidesuc
28、hservicesandhavebeenselectivelyexitingthebusinessorreducingthenumberofrespondentbankrelationships(FSB2017;IMF,2017;WorldBank,2018;FSB,2019;CPMI2019).Allregionshaveseenadeclineinthenumberofactivecorrespondents,althoughthesetrendsvarysignificantly(Graph4,left-handpanel).Theratesofdeclinebyregionrangef
29、romabout10to30%,withNorthernAmericaatthelowend,andLatinAmericaatthehighend(centrepanel).Additionally,thenumberofcorridors(country-to-countryconnections)betweencountriesfellby10%overthesameperiod.Heretoo,thedeclinewasunevenacrossregions(Graph4,dotsincentrepanel)andleftsomeregionswithfewerremainingcor
30、ridors(Graph4,right-handpanel).Theretreatbycorrespondentbanksraisesthreeconcerns:(1)Somejurisdictionscouldfaceinadequateaccesstotheglobalfinancialsystem;(2)greaterconcentration,orfewercorrespondentbanksprovidingservices,couldkeepcross-borderpaymentcostsandfrictionselevated;and(3)wherebanksarenotprov
31、idingfinancial(payment)services,usersmayresorttolessregulatedorunregulatedchannels,shiftingpaymentsoutsidethebankingsystem,including,potentially,todigitalcurrencies(Riceetal.,2020).Graph 4CorrespondentbankinglandscapeBanks have been retreating1The decline is global11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Value of cr
32、oss-border payments Volume of payment messages Number of active correspondents Number of corridorsfca ASQ Europe Europe re6 Ameka OceaniaNumber of:Active correspondents CorridorsSomeregionshavefewconnections2Number,2018,25i20h15ioW5I3IllJll255075100125150Noofcorridors.Africa.LatinAmerica.Asia.Northe
33、rnAmericaEasternEurope.OceaniaEurope1Three-monthmovingaverages.2Theblackdottedlineshowstheaveragepercentagechangeofactivecorrespondentsacrossregions.32018data.Averagesacrosscountriesinthesubregionslisted.Africa=Eastern,Middle,Northern,SouthernandWestern;Asia=Central,Eastern,South-Eastern,Southernand
34、Western;EasternEurope;Europe=Northern,SouthernandWestern;LatinAmerica=Caribbean,CentralandSouthAmerica;NorthernAmerica;Oceania=AustraliaandNewZealand,Melanesia,MicronesiaandPolynesia.Sources:Riceetal(2020);SWIFTBIWatch;NationalBankofBelgium.Enterdigital:crypto-assets；stablecoinsandCBDCsVariouscrypto
35、-assetsclaimtoaddressdeficienciesintheexistingfinancialsystem.Manyarevyingtobecomeanewformofdigitalmoneythatcanbesecurelysentandreceivedovertheinternet,byanybodywithaphoneorinternetconnection,andwiththeconvenienceandcost-effectivenessofane-mail.Someinitiativestargetcross-borderpayments,particularlyr
36、emittances,inEMDEs.Bycuttingoutfinancialintermediaries,suchproposalsaimtoempowerusersandmakedomesticandcross-borderpaymentsmoreefficient.Thismaybeparticularlyrelevantforcountrycorridorshitbythedeclineincorrespondentbankingrelationships,andforthosecountrieswithgrowingparticipationinthedigitaleconomyb
37、utnocorrespondinggrowthinaccesstoe-commerce-enabledpaymentmechanisms.Crypto-assetshavesufferedfromvariousimpediments,includinghighpricevolatilityandscalabilitychallenges,whichpreventthemfrombeingadoptedasamainstreammeansofpaymentorstoreofvalue,muchlessaunitofaccount(seeBIS,2018).Inresponse,adiversef
38、amilyofso-calledstablecoinshasenteredthefray,includingproposalslikeFacebook,sLibra(sincerenamedDiem).Moststablecoinsattempttomaintainastablevaluerelativetoafiatcurrency(likee-moneyoracurrencyboard)orabasketoffiatcurrencies.Tomaintainastablevalue,mostinitiativesadoptacollateralapproachusingbankdeposi
39、ts,governmentsecuritiesorcrypto-assetsalthoughsomeprojectsattempttomaintainstabilitythroughalgorithmicallybalancingthesupplyofcoinsincirculationwithdemand(Arneretal.,2020;Moinetal.,2019).Thiswouldbenosmallfeatastheeventfulhistoryofbrokencurrencyboardsandpegshasshown.Furthermore,stablecoinsystemsthat
40、cantapintothemassiveuserbasesofplatformcompaniesmayemploynetworkeffectstodriverapidadoptiononaglobalscale.SeveralbigtechplatformcompaniesexistinEMDEs-inparticularinAsia-thathaveasufficientlylargefootprinttospurmassadoption.Proposedstablecoinarrangementsrepresentmorethanjustapaymentinstrument;theyare
41、ofteneco-systemswithentitiesthateachplayaroleintheoverallfunctioningofthesystemwithpotentiallymultipledigitalassetsthatareusedforpaymentorinvestmentpurposesrunningontopofthem(Zetzscheetal.,2020).Formoststablecoinarrangementsthatcouldreachscale,therearevariouskeyrolesthataretypicallyplayedbyavarietyo
42、fdifferententities:Governance,whichincludesvarioustasksrelatedtosoftwareprotocols,issuanceandredemptionpolicies,andthereserveinvestmentstrategy; Issuanceandredemptionofstablecoinsincirculation;4 Managementofthereserveassets;ValidationOftransactionstoenabletransfers;and Custodyandexchangeofstablecoin
43、swithusers.However,aspointedoutbytheG7andFSB,stablecoinsposeawiderangeofrisksrelatedto,amongothers,legalcertainty,financialintegrity,soundgovernance,thesmoothfunctioningofpayments,consumerprotection,dataprivacy,taxcompliance,andpotentiallymonetarypolicyandfinancialstability(G7WorkingGrouponStablecoi
44、ns,2019;FSB,2020).Moreover,stablecoinsfacemanyofthesameobstaclesthatotherplayershavefacedwithtransactionaccounts,includingmobilemoney.Further,theyneedtocontendwithnewchallengesoftheirowndependingonthescaleofadoptionandtheiruseasameansofpaymentorastoreofvalue.Recently,anumberofcentralbankshavepropose
45、dorpilotedso-calledcentralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDCs).CBDCswouldbeanewformofdigitalcentralbankmoneythatcouldbedistinguishedfromreservesorsettlementbalancesheldbycommercialbanksatcentralbanks(CPMI/MC,2018;BIS,2021).Whilethetechnologyanddesigncouldtakeanumberofdifferentforms,CBDCswouldbeissuedbythece
46、ntralbank,likephysicalcashorthereservesthatbanksholdatthecentralbank,andwouldbeindigitalform.5Arecentsurveyfindsthatcentralbanksrepresentingafifthoftheworld,spopulationsaytheyarelikelytoissueaCBDCsinthenextfew Somestablecoinarrangementshaveproposedtomaintainstabilitybyalgorithmicallycontrollingthesu
47、pplyofcoinsincirculationtomatchdemand. SeeAdrianandMancini-Griffoli(2019)andAuerandBdhme(2020)foradiscussionofdifferentCBDCmodels,includingmodelswherebyaprivatestablecoinarrangementsolelyusescentralbankreservesasreserveassets.years(Boaretal.,2020;BoarandWehrli,2021).Severalcentralbanksaremovingintom
48、oreadvancedstagesofCBDCengagement,progressingfromconceptualresearchtowardspracticalexperimentation.Othercentralbanks,meanwhile,aremovingatamoremeasuredpacewithfurtherresearchorconsultation,whileyetothershaveconcludedthattheriskscurrentlyoutweighthepotentialbenefits.CentralbanksgiveawiderangeofmotivationsforCBDCinitiatives;forEMDEcentralbanks,thisincludespromotingfinancialinclusionandpaymentsefficiency.Manyoftheseinitiativestargetwholesalepayments,i.e.large-valuetransactionsbetweenfinancialinstitutions,insomecasesforcross-borderpayments.Somepilotsandresearchanddevelopmentprojectsareforgene
