DDP-深度脱碳的政策教训-在大型新兴经济体(英)-2021.11-86正式版.docx

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1、0DDECARBONlZATlOh_DAYXWAVC POLICYLESSONS ONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Brazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica AninternationalreportcoordinatedbytheDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative NOVEMBER2021 IDDRI Copyright2021IDDRI TheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRela

2、tions(IDDRI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRscopyrightedmaterialsarenotformmercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic

3、).Unlessexpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRsboard.Citation DDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Par

4、is.Thereportisavailableonline:https:ddpinitiative.org/CategOrV/publication/Contact HenriWaisman,heni.waismaniddri.ora Financialsupportfrom ThereportPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesisfinanciallysupportedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)oftheGermanFederalMinistryforthe

5、Environment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)aspartoftheClimateActionAfterParisproject(nr.18_l_326).Production:IDDRI.Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.1.ayout:IvanPharabod.POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Introduction 3 Brazil:5 Intr

6、oduction 5 Part 1:Scenarioresults 7 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 18 Annex 23 India:25 Introduction 25 Part 1:Scenarioresults 27 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 32 Indonesia:39 Part 1:Scenarioresults 40 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 51 SouthAfrica:55 Introduction 55 Part 1:Scenarioresults 56 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 62T

7、hisreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindependentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.Introduction MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip1HenriWaisman.The

8、worldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagestohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2andtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinth

9、econtextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1,5)and2075(for2).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthissca

10、leofemissionreductions,thescientificassessmentconcludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintech

11、nologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutionalandpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypacka

12、gesandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbyeffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworknditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountryntext.Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeen

13、largelyexploredfromatech-no-economicperspective,resultinginviablesetsoflong-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialstandthat,usually,thesetransformationscan

14、haveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbene-fitswhenexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarboni-sationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteac

15、tionhigh-lightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnotonlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomaylo

16、seandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economiccostsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.

17、TheDDPmmunitybehindthisreporthascommit-tedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-enomicdeepdecarbonisationtransfor-mationsarecontextualizedinthediversityofcountrycircumstancesanddescribedwithsuffici

18、entdetailsandgranularitytoinformdecisionsrequiredtodrivethesetransformations.Keychallengestodate,whicharecriticaltoincreaseambitionandaccelerateaction,include:connectingthescenariosanalysisandthediversityofpoliciesandactionstoimplementationintherealworld;revealingthecriticalconditionsthatareoutsidet

19、hecontrolofnationalauthorities,whereinternationalcooperationmustplayarole,andensuringownershipoftheinsightsemergingfromthescenariosbyadiversityofactorstoempowertheminthepublicdebates.TheDDPapproachunderlyingthisreportsresearchisestablishedwiththesekeychallengesinmind.Itisfundamentallyacountry-driven

20、exploration,backcastingfromthemid-centuryemissionandsocio-eco-nomicobjectivestoinformtheshort-termdecisionswithinandacrosssystems.Sectoraldeepdivesallowforanin-depthinvestigationofalllevers,opportunitiesandchallengessuitedtoinformdomesticstake-holderdebateinhighlycomplicatedsectors,suchastransport,i

21、ndustry,oragriculture/land-use,whicharetraditionallyrepresentedpoorlyinexistinglong-termroadmaps.Thestakeholderengagementapproachtothedevelopmentofthescenariosandemanatingpolicyinsightsisanessentialmeansforthesescien-tificassessmentstoserveanactionagenda.Thisreportpresentsasynthesisoftheresultsofthe

22、assessmentsconductedinBrazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica.Foreachofthecountrieschapters,PartIdescribesthemainfeaturesoftheeconomy-wideDeepDecarbonizationScenario(三)(DDS)1includingadescriptionofkeynational-scalesocio-economicaspectsandanexplicitcharacterisationoftheemis-sionobjectiveandtrajectory.To

23、realisethenecessarychangestogetontracktothispath,adescriptionoftheCurrentPolicyScenario(CPS)isalsopresented,includingadescriptionofthemainpoliciesandactionsconsidered.Scenarioresultsincludeanin-depthdescriptionatsectorlevelforthedeepdivesselectedbyeachuntry.PartIlofthecountrychaptersfocusesonkeypoli

24、cylessons,whichcanserveasdirectinputsintopolicyconversationsatthecountrylevel.Itincludesadescriptionofthemainsynergiesandtrade-offswithcountrynon-climateobjectives,prior-ityshort-termpoliciesandactions,withafocusonwhereshiftsfromcurrentpathsarecriticallyrequired,investmentspatternsandkeyinternationa

25、lenablersandacceleratorsofdomestictransitions.TheBrazilianNDChasaneconomy-widegoalof37%GHGemissionreduction,by2025and43%reductionby2030,comparedwith2005asthebaseyear.Brazilalsomadevoluntarycommitmentsofemissionreductionsin2009duringCOP15(Copenhagen)linkedtoitsNAMAs1correspondingtokeepemissionsbelowa

26、capofroughly2GtC2eqin2020.Morerecently,theBrazilianPresidentannouncedattheClimateLeaderSummitorganizedbyUSPresidenton22April2021thecountryscommitmenttoreachclimateneutralityby2050.ThisstudysimulatestwoGHGemissionsscenariosinBraziluntil2050.Itprovidesaframeworkforananalysisofeconomy-wideandsectoralin

27、dicatorsofadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwiththegeneralobjectiveoftheParisAgreement(net-zeroGHGemissionsin2050).TheCurrentPoliciesScenario(CPS)followsthetrendofongo-ingmitigationactions.Itsemissionsareof1.65GtC2eqin2030,withnoincreaseinambitionbetween2030and2050.TheCPSnearlymeetsthecountrystargetfor2

28、030underthenewfirstNDCbutisabovethefigure(1.4GtC2eq)ofarevisedtargetwhenthe2005baseyearemis-sionsareupdatedaccordingtothenew4thnationalemissionsinventory.TheDeepDecarbonizationScenario(DDS)reaches1.0GtC2qin2030,goingbeyondtheNDCtargetandfollowingaGHGemissionstrajectorycompatiblewiththeglobalobjectiv

29、eof1.50C,achievingnet-zeroemissionsin2050.ThesectoralmitigationmeasuresconsideredinCPSarebasedonnationalplansandpolicies.DDSincorporatesmoreambitiousactionsandotheravailabletechnologies.DDSsmainfeaturesarearadicalreductionindeforestationratesandanincreaseofcarbonsinks.Carbonpricingfrom2021isassumedf

30、orasignificantshareoftheemissions(EnergyandIPPU),withsectorsintroducingmitigationactionswithcostsEmilio L.La Rovere Carolina B.S.Dubeux William WiHS Michele K.C.Walter Giovanna Naspolini Otto Hebeda Daniel N.S.Gongalvez George V.Goes Marcio DAgosto Erika C.Nogueira Sergio H.F.da Cunha Claudio Gestei

31、ra Gaelle Le Treut Giovanna Cavalcanti Mark Bermanzon Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment(CENTRO CLIMA)at COPPE/UFRJ-Institute for Research and Graduate Studies of Engineering,Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.underthecarbonpriceineachperiod,startingwiththemostcost

32、-effective.Carbonpricesareintroducedthroughacap-andtradesysteminIndustry,andacarbontaxonGHGemissionsfromthecombustionoffossilfuelsinothersectors.Theywillgrowlinearly,reaching25USDtC02qin2030 and65USDtC02eqin2050.Carbonpricingwillbeneutralfromafiscalperspective,with100%ofitsrevenuesrecycledbackintoth

33、eeconomythroughlabourchargesreductionaimingtofosteremployment,andtocompensatelow-incomehouseholdsfortheaveragepricelevelincrease.Populationsizeincreasesfrom210millioninhab-itantsin2019toabout233millioninhabitantsin2050.Inthisperiod,theurbanpopulationsharegrowsfrom86%to89%,Followingthesharpdown-turni

34、ntheeconomyfrom2015to2020duetoapolitical-economiccrisisandtheCOVID-19pandemic,Brazilianeconomyeconomicrecoveryisassumedtostarton2021:annualaverageGDPgrowthrateswouldbeof3,5%in2021;2.5%from2021to2030;2,25%from2031to2040;and2%from2041to2050(withlineargrowthassumedwithineachdecade).Afterthedrawbackinth

35、e2015-2020period,Giniindexstartstodecreaseagain,butslowerthanthe2000-2015record.Householdsizeisprojectedtodecreaseslowlywhilehouseholddisposableincomeasa%ofGDPisprojectedtoincrease.TradewillbecomemoreimportanttoBrazilduringthescenariotimeframe,andimporttaxesandprotectionismwillbereduced,followingthe

36、globaltrend.Weuseanintegratedmodellingapproach,whereasetofsixsectoralmodelsislinkedtoaCGEmodel(IMACLIM-BR).Thesectoralmodelsconsistoffourenergydemandmodels(transport,industry,buildings,andagricultureenergydemand),anagri-culture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU)modelandanenergysupplymodel(MATRIZ).GHGemi

37、ssionestimatesfromWastecompletethepicture.PART1:SCENARIORESULTS EMISSIONPROFILES GHGemissionsreach17MtCO2eqinDDSand1889inCPSby2050.Comparing2050inbothscenarioswith2020values,DDSis99%lower,while 7Table sector.MostGHGemissionreductionscomefromlandusechangeandforestry.ComparedtoCPS,in2050DDSemissionsfr

38、omdeforestationare93%lower,areductionof953MtCO2eq.Onthetopofthat,carbonremovalsincrease76%lequivalentto451MtCO2eq,thankstoincreasedforestedandprotectedareas(indigenouslandsandconservationunits).Transportisthesecondmostrelevantsector,withanemissionreductionof126MtCO2eq(53%),followedbythewastesectorwi

39、thareductionof120MtCO2eq(65%),andlivestockactivitieswith116MtCO2eq(22%).Finally,inindustrythereductionisof84MtCO2eq(31%),andinenergysupplyaddedtootherenergyconsumptionsectorsof27MtC2q(23%).Theonlyactivitywithasmallincreaseinemissionsiscropping,with4MtC2q(4%)moreemissionsinDDSduetohigherbiofuelsprodu

40、ction.InDDS,onlytwosectorshavehigherGHGemis-sionsin2050thaninthebaseyear2019:croppingactivitiesincreaseemissionsby29%;andindustryby14%.Inthesecases,undertheassumptionofnomajorbreakthroughsordisruptivetechnologies,theimprovementoftechnologiescurrentlyinusewasnotsufficienttocompensateforthehigherprodu

41、ctionlevels.MITIGATIONACTIONS ANDCOSTS InDDS,besidesthehugeefforttocurbdowndeforestationandincreaseremovals,thecarbonpricingpolicysuppliesthecomplementarymiti-gationactionsinothersectorsrequiredtoreachnet-zeroemissionsin2050.Table2presentsthecumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsperdecade(MtCO2eq).Mtc02eq 20

42、05 2010 2019 2020 2030 2005-2030 2040 2050 CPS-DDS(2050)Land Use Change CPS 2,171 668 1,024-53%1,024 1,024-93%(LUC)-gross emissions DDS 614-72%201 71 Removals CPS.249-313.574.591-556 123%-576-593 76%(LUC,Forest,Protected Areas and Other)DDS -695 179%-794-1042 Agriculture CPS 146 161 92 92 97-34%101

43、115 4%(crops+energy)DDS 99-32%106 119 Livestock CPS 329 329 433 432 466 42%485 529-22%DDS 453 38%444 413 Transport CPS 139 173 196 175-209 50%220 240-53%DDS 167 20%139 114 Industry CPS 139 162 162 166 194 40%232 268-31%(energy+IPPU)DDS 172 23%180 184 Energy(supply+demand from households CPS 100 111

44、121 95 127 27%115 120-23%and services)DDS 120 21%100 93 Waste CPS 61 69 100 102-105 71%145 186 65%DDS 76 25%78 65 Total CPS 2.837 1,361 1 47Q 1 a 1,665-41%1,745 1,889-99%DDS 1,005-65%454 17 Table 1-Total GHG Emissions per Sector,2005-2050,under CPS and DDS(Mt C2q)Commandandntrolpoliciescombinedwithc

45、onstrainingtheaccessoffarmersandrancherstopubliccredits(subjecttoconformitywithenvironmentallawsandregulations)achieve59%oftotalcumulativeGHGemissionreduc-tionsupto2050,throughthesharpreductionofannualdeforestationrate.The2004-2012recordhasalreadyshownthepotentialofthesemeasuresthatcanbesuccessfully

46、adoptedagain.Command-and-controlmeasuresalsoallowtoavoiddefor-estationthroughtheincreaseofthenumberandthesurfaceofconservationareas(e.g.,permanentpreservationareas,indigenouslanddemarcation,andotherlegalreserves).Thecarbonpricingpolicycansupply30%oftotalcumulativeavoidedemissionsupto2050indifferents

47、ectors:AFOLU(18%),Transport(6.5%),Industry(4%),andEnergysupply(1%).Nativevegetationrestorationinpublicandprivateareashaveasignificantabatementpotentialandlowercoststhantheothersectors.Itallowstoremove2,647MtC2qupto2050,whennativevegetationrestorationwillreach30.18millionha.Privateareaspresentmoreatt

48、ractivecostsincomparisonwithpublicareas(7versus17USD/tC2qin2021,8versus28in2031,and9versus31in2041).ConsideringtheenforcementofForestCodecompliance,privateareasprovidehighercumulativeavoidedemissionsin2021-2030(121versus38Mt2eq)andin2031-2040(322versus302MtC2q)thanpublicareas.However,inthelastdecade

49、,thebulkofremovalswillcomefrompublicareasthankstoabettercost-effectiveness,andthusitscontributiontocumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsthroughoutthewhole2020-2050periodwillbeof1,6311against1,015MtC2qfromprivateareas.Theabatementcostassessmentindicatesthepathwayofcarbonprices.Costsforagivenmitiga-tionoption

50、mayvarythroughoutthethreedecadesCumulative avoided emissions per decade(Mt CO2eq)Decades 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 Total Mitigation Actions 3,629 10,069 16,103 Carbon Pricing Policy 1,013 2,618 5.254 AFOLU 619 1,483 3,281 Native forest restoration in public areas(through government concession)38

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