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1、WHITE PAPERNOVEMBER 20 2 1In Collaboration with the Global Future Council on Net-Zero Transition and the Alliance of CEO Climate LeadersWORLDECONOMICFORUMNet-ZerotoNet-Negative:AGuideforLeadersonCarbonRemovalCoverandimages:GettyImages,UnsplashContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Intrcxjuction51 Underst
2、andcarbonremovalanditslimitations71.1 Wheretoputremovedcarbon?81.2 Wheniscarbonremoved?91.3 Howlongwillcarbonstayremoved?92 Plantoaddressfuture,presentandpastemissions103 Seeksystemicimpact11Conclusion12Annex13Acknowledgements15Contributors16Endnotes17DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomi
3、cForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEnomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorot
4、herstakeholders.2021WorldEomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.November 2021Net-ZerotoNet-Negative:AGuideforLeadersonCarbonRemovalForewordBaroness Bryony Worthi
5、ngton Co-Director, Quadrature Climate Foundation, UnitedKingdomMyles Allen Professor of Geosystem Science. Director, Oxford Net Zero, University of Oxford, United KingdomThreethingsneedtohappentolimitglobalwarmingtosafelevelsinlinewiththeParisAgreement:greenhousegasemissionsneedtobehalvedby2030;net-
6、zeroemissionsmustbeachievedby2050;andglobalemissionswillneedtobecomenet-negativeemissionsafter2050.Firstandforemost,holdingontoastableclimaterequiresadrasticreductionofemissions.Thiswillrequireaneconomictransformationthatreimagineshowweproduceanduseenergyandmostcommodities.Andyet,thatwillstillnotbee
7、nough.Asacomplementtoreductions,carbonremovalsolutionsareneeded.Notonlywillsomeemissions-forexample,inagricultureandheavyindustry-beverydifficulttoreduce,wealsoneedtodrawdowntheEarthsownemissionsresultingfromthenaturalfeedbackloopsofawarmingplanetandalsoreversethebuild-upofemissionsthathaveaccumulat
8、ed,andcontinuetoaccumulate,intheatmosphereovertime.Thispaperoffersatimelyguideforbusinessandpolicyleadersdeterminedtoacceleratethetransitiontoaneconomycompatiblewithmaintainingasafeclimate.Itdescribesthelandscapeofexistingcarbonremovalopportunities-fromnature-basedtotechnologicalandhybridsolutions-d
9、iscussestherelativemeritsandchallengesassociatedwiththese,andrecommendsasetofactionstobeginspeedinguptheirdeploymenttoday.Keyamongthesearecommittingto:learningaboutandinterrogatingtheconceptofcarbonremovalstounderstandthetrade-offs;usingremovalstoaddresscurrent,futureand,importantly,pastemissions;an
10、dseekingaleveraged,systemicimpactratherthantakingatactical,least-costapproach.TwooftheWorldEconomicForm,scommunitiescollaboratedtodevelopthispaper:theGlobalFutureCouncil(GFC)onNet-ZeroTransitionandtheAllianceofCEOClimateLeadersCarbonRemovalsClimateActionGroup.Thiscollaborationalsoproducedapresentati
11、on-fromCEOstoCEOs-summarizingthecriticalroleofcarbonremovalandhowcompaniescanuseitbothcrediblyandsmartly.Wearegratefulforthemanycontributionsfrombothofthesegroups,whichalsoyieldedaseriesofarticlespublishedontheForumsAgendablog,andinparticulartoEliMitchell-LarsonoftheOxfordNetZeroinitiativeandCarbonG
12、apforhisworkindraftingandcollatingmanydiverseperspectives.Thisdiversityhasgeneratedarobustsetofrecommendationsforleaderswhoarereadytodeliverthisimportantpieceoftheclimatepuzzle.ChristianMumenthalerGroupChiefExecutiveOfficer,SwissRe;Co-ChairoftheAllianceofCEOClimateLeaders,SwitzerlandExecutivesummary
13、Planningfortheactiveremovalofcarbondioxidefromtheatmospherecoupledwithstorage(CDR),isanintegralpartofanycomprehensivenet-zerostrategy.Thiswhitepaperisaguidefordecision-makerstosomeofthekeychallengesandopportunitiestheymustconsiderwhenengagingwithcarbonremovals.Whentouseremovals?Theuseofcarbonremoval
14、sneedstofollowthemitigationhierarchy:thefirstpriorityisalwaystoreduceoravoidemissionswherepossible.Carbonremovalisappropriateifusedforoneofthreepurposes:1. Compensatingforemissionsthatresultdirectlyfromanactorsactivitiesbutwhicharedifficultorimpossibletoreduce.2. CompensatingfortheEarthsemissionsres
15、ultingfromclimatechangeitself(andhenceindirectlyfrompastorfutureemissions)3. Foractorswithhighambitionsandstrongleadership,goingfurther-achievingnet-negativeemissionstoaddressthelegacyofpastemissions,tacklingthebuildupofcarbondioxideintheatmosphereandbeginningtorestoretheclimateHowshouldleadersengag
16、ewithremovals?Wehighlightthreekeyconsiderations:Understandcarbonremovalanditslimitations-itisessentialtoconsiderthecompleteend-to-endcarbonremovalandstoragechallenge.Carbonremovaltechniquescanbroadlybedividedintocategoriesaccordingtothemethodofremoval,andtheformofsubsequentformatofstorage,someofwhic
17、hareconsiderednature-based,engineered,orahybridofthetwo.TodeliverthecarbonremovalvolumenecessarytomeettheParisAgreement,allofthesemethodswillneedtobescaledupoverthecomingdecade.Inselectingasafecarbonremovalstrategy,leadersshouldkeepinmind:1. Wheretoputremovedcarbon?Considerthecapacityofcarbonstorage
18、optionsandhowtheyaredistributedamongtheatmosphere,geosphere(rocks),andbiosphere(marineandterrestrialplantsandsoils).Durablenet-zerostrategiesinvolvebalancingemissionsandremovalslike-for-like(pensatingforongoingfossilfuelusebyreturningcarbondioxidetothegeosphere).2. Wheniscarbonremoved?Notallremovals
19、arerealizedinstantaneously,andcaremustbetakennottoborrowfromthefuture.3. Howlongwillcarbonstayremoved?Considertheriskofreversaltotheatmosphereofstoredcarbonandanticipateaneedtotransitiontooptionsofferinggreaterpermanenceandlowerrisk.Ensurerobustongoingperformancemonitoring.Plantoaddressfuture,presen
20、tandpastemissions-ambitiouscorporateleadersseekingtodeterminethescaleofcarbonremovalrequiredbytheirbusinessesshouldprioritizeunavoidablepresentandfutureemissions,butalsobepreparedtoaddresspastemissionsbacktoanagreeddate.Seeksystemicimpact-finally,whennsideringcarbonremovaloptions,corporationsneedtor
21、eflectontheimpacttheywanttohaveandtheirlevelofambition.Leadersinbusiness,financeandpolicycanactnowtosupportawidearrayofremovalsoptions.Thisincludesbothestablishedmethodsthatarereadyforscaleplusemergingtechniqueswhereurgent,early-stagesupportwilldeliversystemic,far-reachingimpactsbeyondthedecision-ma
22、ker,sownremit.Howbesttotakeaction?Thebriefcloseswithacalltoaction,undertheoverarchingappealtouseremovalsonlytoaddressemissionsthatcannotbereducedoravoided,prioritizingemissionreductionsaboveremovalsacrossthefullvaluechain.Corporationsengagingwithcarbonremovalmust:1. Buildexpertise,seekadviceandsuppo
23、rtexistingcarbonremovalinitiatives2. Supportemissionreductionsandnaturebasedclimatesolutionsintheirownright3. Seekadiversifiedportfolioofremovalsspanningbiologicalandgeologicaloptions4. Considertheuseofremovalstocompensateforpastemissions5. Prepareforthefuture,includingpotentialliabilityforfutureemi
24、ssions6. Balanceemissionsfromhigh-durabilitysourceswithhigh-durabilitystorage7. AdvocateforambitiousclimatepoliciesIntroductionToensureasafeclimate,wemustcutcarbondioxideemissionsby50%ormoreby2030,reachnet-zeroemissionsbefore2050andstayatnet-negativeemissionsthroughoutthesecondhalfofthecentury.Thisp
25、aperfocusesoncarbondioxideremoval(CDR)anditsroleincomplementingemissionreductionsandreducingthestockofcarbonalreadyintheatmosphere.Achievingnet-zero-removingandstoringgreenhousegasemissionsatthesamerateastheyareemitted-isanimportantwaypointtowardsabsolutezero.Inquantifiableterms:tokeepwarmingbelowth
26、eParisthresholdof2,orpreferably1.50C,massiveyear-on-yearemissionreductionsareneededinadditiontothesaferemovalandstorageof5billionto20billiontonsofCO2fromtheatmosphereeveryyearbymid-century(comparedtotodaysemissionsof40billiontonsCOperyear).FIGRE11.5oCpathwayGlobal CO2 emissions in billion tons per y
27、ear 50Bsinss-as-sual emissionsNegative emissions-10Net-negative2010202020302040205020602070208020902100Source:AdaptedfromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange2018SR15,P1-P4Carbonremovalplaysacriticalroleinenablingtheneutralizationofsomeveryhard-to-abateemissions:(1)achievingnet-zerobymid-centuryi
28、ntimetokeeppeakwarmingbelowParisthresholds:and(2)deliveringnet-negativeemissionstocooltheplanetandbeginrestoringtheatmosphere.Removalsareacomplementtodeepemissioncuts,notareplacementforthem.Removalsshouldnotdistractfromemissioncutsandarethereforealwaysthefinalstepinamitigationhierarchyandcorporatemi
29、tigationstrategy.Therearevariousmethodsofremovingandstoringcarbon,eachwithuniqueadvantages,disadvantages,costsandotherattributes(seeFigure2andtheAnnexforabriefoverview,andtheCDRPrimerforadditionaldetails).Optionsincludenature-basedremovalmethods,manyofwhicharecurrentlyavailableatrelativelylowcosts,a
30、ndengineeredandhybridsolutions,someofwhich,althoughtheymaystillbeexpensive,arereadytobescaledup,whileothersareatearlierstagesofdevelopment.Thebillionsoftonsofremovalsrequiredcannotbedeliveredbyanyonetechnique;itisthereforenecessarytoexploreandscaleupabroadarrayofremovalmethods.2FIGURE2Carbonremovalm
31、ethodsBlue carbon Soil carbon sequestration ForestationOther biomass cartxn removal and storage (BiCRS) Strip biogenic CO2 from flue gas (X other processes, store it permanently. Includes bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).Accelerated weatheringOf natural minerals to react with, and t
32、hereby fix, atmospheric CO2Direct air capture and storage (DACS) Filter CO2 directly from the air and store it permanentlyThecarbon-removallandscapespansacrossnature-based,hybridandtechnologicalsolutionsForestationPlant,manageandgrowforeststoremoveandstorecarbonSOilsequestrationIncreasethesoilcartnc
33、ontentthroughchangesinlandmanagement(e.g.no-till)BlUecarbonIncreasethecartoncontentofastalzonesandwetlandsthroughchangesinecosystemmanagement(e.g.mangroves),OtheroceanCDROthermethodstoenhancetheoceansabilitytoabsorbcartxninecosystemsandoceanchemistry：BiocharVrProducecharcoalfrombiomassandusee.g.asys
34、oilamendmentorchemicaladditiveSource:AdaptedfromSwissRe,2020SoNARReDortCarbonremovaltechniquestakemanyforms,whichcanbecategorizedacrdingtothemeansofremovalfromtheatmosphere(e.g.photosynthesispoweredbyorganisms,enhancednaturalgeochemicalprocessessuchasweathering,engineeredfilteringofCOzfromair)andthe
35、meansofsubsequentcarbonstorage(e.g.inorganicmatter,mineralizedforms,geologicalreservoirs,Ihebuiltenvironment,long-livedproducts,oceansedimentsorothersinks).Theseeightbroadcategoriesaboveare-end-to-endremovalandstoragepathways:forexample,bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)involvesphotosynthet
36、iccapturecoupledwithstorageingeologicalreservoirs,whereasforestationinvolvesremovalbyandstorageintothesamematerial(theabove-andbelow-groundbiomassoftheforestitself).CarbonremovalsolutionsaresometimesgroupedaccordingtothosethatareconsideredFature-basedversusthosethataretechnological/engineered,orthos
37、ethatareahybridofthetwo,butthesedistinctionscanbesubjectiveandoccasionallycontroversial(e.g.reforestationisuniversallyconsideredanature-basedsolution,whereasafforestationisnot).Carbonremovalcanserveatleastthreedistinctpurposesindeliveringclimateaction:-Compensatingforhard-to-reduceemissions:Someemis
38、sionsaredispersedorverydifficultorexpensivetoeliminate.Removalscancompensatefortheseuntiltechnological,politicalandeconomicconditionsallowfortheirabsolutedecarbonizationsHowever,suchremovalsmustnotcompromiseprogressonabsolutedecarbonizationordetermoreambitiousactionintheshortterm.Thoseemissionsthata
39、reconsideredhard-to-reduce,andthereforeappropriatetoaddresswithremovals,mustbecontinuallyreassessed.-CompensatefortheEarthsemissionsresultingfromclimatechange:Removalscanalsocounteractincreasedemissionsfromthebiosphereitselfthatresultdirectlyfromhistoricalandfutureemissionshavingwarmedtheplanet,butw
40、hicharedifficulttoattributetoanyspecificactors.-Tacklingthebuild-upofemissionsintheatmosphere:Removalsalsoallowthosepartiesthathavemadethebiggestcontributiontothecarbonbuild-uptoaddresstheirlegacyofcontributingtowarming.Itiscriticaltostoppresent-dayemissionsandreducethestockofcarbonthathasbuiltupint
41、heatmosphere.Onceglobalnet-zeroemissionshavebeenachieved,ongoingglobalnet-negativeemissionswillhavetheeffectofreducingCO2concentrations,coolingtheplanetandrestoringtheclimatetowardsapre-indstrialstate.Despitethecriticalimportanceofremovals,confusionabouttheirappropriateuseabounds.Thispaperdescribess
42、omeoftheissuesthatneedtobeconsideredwhenincludingcarbonremovalinnet-zerostrategiesandoffersavisionofwhatcrediblesupportforremovalslookslike.Thethreekeypillarsthatfollowofferastartingpointforcorporateleaderswhowishtoresponsiblyguidetheirfirms*engagementwithcarbonremoval.Understandcarbonremovalanditsl
43、imitationsWhatdoesasafeandenduringglobalnet-zerostatelooklike,andhowdoesthisgoalinformtheactionscurrentlyneededtobeginthetransition?- How much room is left to store removed carbon?- How quickly can carbon be removed and stored?-How easy is it for stored carbon to escape back into the atmosphere?Tech
44、niquestoremoveandstorecarbonvarywidelyintheirimpacts,benefits,costsandthefundamentalvaluetheydeliver.Thesedifferentattributeshaveimplicationsforthosewhowishtouseremovalstocompensateforfossilfuelemissionstodeliverastableandmaintainablenet-zeroemissionsstate,bothfortheirorganizationandtheplanetasawhol
45、e.Threekeycharacteristicsofremovalsarehighlighted,including:1.1Wheretoputremovedcarbon?Thefasterwereduceemissions,thelesscarbonremovalwillbeneeded.Bymid-century,anewjourneyfromnet-zerotoabsolute-zeroemissionswillneedtobewellunderway,aseverytonofcarbonremovedtofirstachieveandthensustainnet-zeroornet-
46、negativeemissionsmustbestoredsomewhere.Atlargevolumes,storagespacewillrun0ut.4Mostreadilyavailablecarbonremovaltechniquestodaystoreremovedcarboninthebiosphere(e.g.vegetationandsoils)orinthegeosphere(e.g.inmineralizedformsaboveorbelowtheEarth,ssurface).Biospherestoragehasthepotentialadvantageofprovid
47、ingvaluablenon-carboncobenefits,whilegeospherestorageisbothvastandeffectivelypermanentifimplementedwell.Othercarbon-storageoptionsincludemineralizationattheEarthssurface,inthedeepoceanandindeep-seasediments,andinthebuiltenvironment(e.g.structuraltimber)todisplacecarbon-intensivematerialssuchascement
48、andsteel,aswellasinotherlong-livedproducts.Differentcarbon-storageoptionshavedifferentavailablecapacities.Althoughthemaximumpotentialfornature-basedremovalsissubstantialitisordersofmagnitudesmallerthanthegeologicalcarbon-storageresource.Whenanoffsetpurchaserfinancesnature-mediatedremovalsusingcarboncredits,theyimplicitlyconvertfossilcarbon(emissions)intobiologicalcarbon(purchasedremovals).Thisisaone-waynetflowofcarbonfromtheverylar
