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1、三nr能薪器xlvlFolndaticIssueBriefISSUENO.504NOVEMBER20212021ObserverResearchFoundation.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copied,archived,retainedortransmittedthroughprint,speechorelectronicmediawithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromORF.RFAnAssessmentoftheEuropeanUnion,sIndo-PacificStrate
2、gyGirishLuthraAbstractThenewIndo-PacificstrategybytheEuropeanUnion(EU)followspreviousmeasurestoincreaseengagementwiththeregionintheeconomic,securityandconnectivitydomains.TheplanindicatesaclearintenttopositiontheEUintheemergingglobalandregionalgovernancestructures,focusingonstrategicautonomy,inclusi
3、vity,therules-basedorder,andcommonpublicgoods.Implementingtheactionplanbasedonthestrategyislikelytofacenumerouschallenges,includingevolvingandsustainingconsensusonitwithintheEU.Nevertheless,itholdspromiseincontributingtothestabilityanddevelopmentoftheIndo-Pacific.Attribution:GirishLuthra,uAnAssessme
4、ntoftheEuropeanUnionsIndo-PacificStrategy,ORFIssueBriefNo.504,November2021,ObserverResearchFoundation.nApril2021,theEuropeanUnion(EU)releasedtheEUStrategyforCooperationintheIndo-Pacific,adocumentoutliningacooperationplanwiththelndo-Pacific.ThestrategydefinestheregionasextendingfromtheeastcoastofAfri
5、catothePacificIslandStates.ThisdiffersfromtheAmericanandAustralianconceptualisationoftheIndo-PacificasstretchingfromthewestcoastoftheUStothewesternshoresofIndia,andtheJapanese,FrenchandtheIndianinterpretationsthatseeitasextendingfromtheshoresofAfricatothatoftheAmericas.?Notwithstandingsuchinterpreta
6、tions,theEU,sstrategyhassignalledaclearintenttoreorientthegroupingsgeopoliticaloutlookandprovideguidanceforenhancedengagementwiththeIndo-Pacific.TheEuropeanCommissionandtheEUHighRepresentative/VicePresidentwererequestedtopresentafinalcommunicationforapprovalbasedontheproposedstrategy,whichwassubsequ
7、entlyreleasedon16September2021throughajointcommunicationtotheEuropeanParliamentandtheEuropeanCouncilthatoutlinedtherationaleforadeeperengagementwiththeIndo-Pacificandthekeyprinciplesthatwillguideit.3Abroadactionplantoimplementthestrategywasalsoincludedinthejointcommunication.WhileFrance,Germanyandth
8、eNetherlandsalreadyhadguidelinesandstrategydocumentsfortheIndo-Pacific,4theEU-wideumbrellastrategyisamajordevelopment.ItemphasisesthatEuropeaneconomicprosperityandtheEU,svisionofitsroleinamultipolarworldisstronglylinkedtotheIndo-Pacificregion.ItisanacknowledgementbyBrusselsoftheevolvinggeopoliticalr
9、ealities,andmarksarebalancefromthepreviousfocusonEasternEurope,theCaucasus,theLevantandNorthAfriCa.5TheguidancedocumentexplicitlyoutlinesawidespectrumofpotentialengagementwithcountriesintheIndoPacific,withamoveawayfromanexclusivefocusontradeandinvestmentbasedpartnerships.Nevertheless,thenewstrategyd
10、ocumentfortheIndo-PacificmustbeseeninthecontextoftheEU,sforeignandsecuritypolicyevolution.Withinthisbroadframework,thispaperwilloutlinethedistinctivefeaturesoftheEU,sIndoPacificstrategy,keyimperativesdrivingtheapproach,andthepotentialchallengesinitsimplementation.TL.heEU,sexternalpolicieshaveevolved
11、graduallysincethegroupingsformationin1993,bringininincreasedinternalcohesion.In2016,theEUpromulgatedtheEuropeanUnionGlobalStrategy(EUGS)1whichreplacetheEuropeanSecurityStrategy(adoptedin2003.TheEUGShighlightedtheimportanceofstrategicautonomyfortheEUandstressedtheneedtoenhanceitscredibilityasaglobalp
12、layer.Keyaspectscoveredweretoimproveinternalandexternalsecurity;stabilisefragilestatesontheEU,sperimeter;developanintegratedapproachtoconflictandcrises;promotepeaceandintegration;displayacommitmenttomultilateralsystems;andpromotesustainabledevelopmentandrespectforhumanrights.6Inaddition,thestrategye
13、xplicitlyhighlightedthedirectconnectionbetweenEuropeanprosperityandAsiansecuritysinceEuropeantradeandinvestmentinAsiadependedonstabilityintheregion.TheprogressoftheEUGShasbeenreviewedthroughannualimplementationreports,andtherehavebeencallstodevelopandpromulgateanewstrategyalignedmorewiththechanginge
14、nvironmentandchallenges.?Around80percentofthegoodsenteringtheEUtransitthroughtheIndianOcean,andhencethesecurityoftransitroutes,freedomofnavigationandtheruleoflawarecriticalforthegrouping.8TheEuropeanUnionMaritimeSecurityStrategy(EUMSS)wasadoptedinJune2014aftermuchdeliberation,withanactionplanagreedu
15、poninDecember2014underfivekeyareas:maritimeawareness;capabilitydevelopment;riskmanagement,protectionofcriticalmaritimeinfrastructure,andcrisisresponse;researchandinnovation;andeducationandtrainingsTheactionplanwasrevisedinJune2018toincluderegionalresponsestoglobalchallengesinthemaritimedomain.TheEUM
16、SSanditsattendantactionplanshadasignificantroleinmainstreamingmaritimeaspects,withmaritimesecurityaccordedhighpriority,inEUpoliciesandengagementwithotherregions,particularlythewesternIndianOcean.SecurityCooperationInthepost-ColdWarperiod,theEUdrewcomfortfromarepurposedNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization
17、(NATO)andlimiteditssecuritycooperationindistantregions.ItsawprincipalthreatsfromarevanchistRussia,Islamistterrorism,civilwarsandinsurgenciesinitsperiphery,WestAsiaandNorthAfrica,andmigration.wHowever,inthelastdecade,therehasbeenanincreasedrecognitionthatsecurityandstabilityintheIndo-Pacificregiondir
18、ectlyimpactEuropeansecurity.nDiplomaticengagementwithAsiawassteppedupthroughmultilateralandbilateralmechanisms,includingtheAsia-EuropeMeeting(ASEM).TheEUalsoparticipatesintheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)RegionalForumandEastAsiaSummit,isanobserverattheSouthAsianAssociationforRegionalCoope
19、ration,andcollaboratesextensivelywiththeAfricanUnionandtheIndianOceanRimAssociation.TheEUalsohasstrongbilateralpartnershipswithJapan,SouthKorea,China,andIndia.TheEUhasparticipatedinmilitaryoperationsinWestAsiaandNorthAfricaundertheNATOumbrellaorcoordinatedundertheCommonSecurityandDefencePolicy,withv
20、oluntaryparticipationbythenationalmilitaries.12TheEUhasprovidedthebulkoffundingtotheIndianOceanCommission(IOC),whichwascreatedin1982andinstitutionalisedin1984,andcurrentlycomprisesfiveisland-nations(Comoros,ReunionIsland,Madagascar,Mauritius,andSeychelles)andsevenobservers,includingtheEU.Since2005,m
21、aritimesecurityisakeypartoftheIOC-EUpartnership,withaspecialfocusonEasternandSouthernAfricaandtheWesternIndianOcean.13In2018,theEUlaunchedtheMaritimeSecurityprogrammetostrengthencapacity-buildingandinformationsharingwithcountriesineasternandsouthernAfricaandtheIndianOcean.11Thiswasfollowedbyacompreh
22、ensivedeclarationonmaritimesecurityinthewesternandsouthernIndianOceaninJune2019.sTheEUalsofundsseveralregionalprogrammesinthefieldofsustainablefisheries,portsecurityandmaritimeinfrastructureinthewesternIndianOceanregion.UndertheEUMSS,membercountrieswereencouragedtodeploytheirnavalassetstostrengthenm
23、aritimesecurityagainstincreasingthreats.Althoughhigh-leveldialoguesonmaritimesecuritywereinstitutedwithASEAN,IndiaandChina,thewesternIndianOceanwastheprimaryareaforEUnavalpresenceanddeployments.TheEUlauncheditsfirstnavaloperationundertheEUNavalForce(EUNAVFOR)inSomaliain2008(OpAtlanta)toprotectshippi
24、ngheadingtoandfromthatcountry.Thescopeofthemissionwaslaterexpandedtoincludecounterpiracy.InSomalia,theEUhasalsosustainedcapacitybuildingandtrainingmissions.EuropeannavalshipsalsoparticipateinUSandNATO-ledtaskforcesinthewesternIndianOcean.TheEU,sapproachtosecurityinthelastdecadeorsofocusedonthreatssu
25、chasterrorism,piracyandarmedrobbery,organisedcrimeandunlawfulacts,illicittraffickingofarms,narcoticsandhumans,illegalfinancialflows,illegalandunreportedfishing,andmaritimemilitia.Otherchallengeslikemarineecology,biodiversity,climateandenvironmentwerealsooftenincludedindiscussionsonsecurity.EconomicI
26、mperativesInconjunctionwiththeUS,Europeplayedamajorroleinshapingthepost-1945tradingsystemandinthepromulgationoftheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTradein1947.NumerousrulesandnormsrelatedtotradewereprogressivelymadebindingforEUmemberstatesthroughlegislation.Thenormativerootsofarules-basedsystemcanalsobes
27、eenintheEU,seconomicintegrationandsingle-marketprinciples.Duetothenatureofitsstructuralandlegalprovisions,theEUcannotfollowpowerandthreat-basedtradepoliciesliketheUS,norcanitundertakelarge-scalestrategicinvestmentslikeChina.17AnymajorstructuralchangeinthecurrenttradingsystembasedonUSorChineseapproac
28、hescanjeopardiseEurope,seconomicstatureandinterests.Accordingly,in2021,Brusselsupdateditstradepolicytoemphasiseuopenstrategicautonomy,whichalignswellwiththefreeandopenIndoPacificconstructasitcontinuestofocusonpreferentialtradeagreementswithdevelopedandmiddle-incomeeconomiesandeconomicpartnershipagre
29、ementswithdevelopingcountries.TheEU,sMarketAccessStrategy19ismeanttocreatethebestpossibleconditionsforEuropeanfirms,intellectualpropertyrightsprotection,anddisputesettlement.IttrackstradeandinvestmentbarriersthroughannualreportsandsupportsthereformandstrengtheningoftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).Asa
30、block,theEUistheworld,slargesttraderofmanufacturedgoodsandSerViCeS(seeFigure1)andranksfirstininboundandoutboundinvestments.20Figure 1:GlobalTradeinGoodsandServices,2009-2019(inbillioneuros)so-nWOOOO7060Countries2009b2014h2019Source:AdaptedfromtheEuropeanCommissionsDGTradeStatisticalGuide,August2020H
31、owever,theEU,sshareinglobaltradedeclinedfrom18.1percentin2009to16.4percentin2019(seefigure2)despiteanaveragegrowthof6percentoverthesameperiod.Figure 2:PercentageShareinGoodsandServices,2009-2019(in%)CanadaSingaporeIndiaSouthKoreaSHongKongUKJapanChinaUSAEU-2768101214161820ShareinPercentage(%)2019B201
32、4B2OO9Source:AdaptedfromtheEuropeanCommissionDGTradeStatisticalGuide,Aueust2020,EU-ChinatradehasseenasignificantincreasesinceChinajoinedtheWTOinDecember2001,withtheEU,sexportsingoodsincreasingbyover10percentandinservicesbyover15percentperyear.Importsalsogrewrapidly,withtheEU,stradedeficitrisingtoUS$
33、200billion.21TheEUisnowChinaslargesttradingpartner,andChinaistheEU,ssecond-largest.RisingconcernsaboutChina,stradeandinvestmentpoliciesanditsdisregardforhumanandlabourrightschangedEuropeanperceptionsoftheBeltandRoadInitiative.AbroaderhardeningofpoliticalstanceshascontributedtothedelayinratifyingtheE
34、U-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment(CAI).However,aninprincipleagreementwasinkedinDecember2020betweenthetwosideswiththeincorporationofseveralsafeguards.22Nevertheless,theEUmustcontinuecooperationwithChina,particularlyintrade,investmentandclimatechange.TheEUalsohashightradevolumeswithJapan,South
35、Korea,India,SingaporeandAustralia(seeFigure3foracomparisonoftheEU,stotaltradewiththesefivecountries,andChinaandtheUS).Figure 3:TotalEUTradein2019(inbillioneuros)561.9619700600500400300200100380USAAustralia + India + Japan + Singapore + South KoreaSource:AdaptedfromEuropeanCommissionsTradeStatisticsT
36、heEUhassignedregionaltradeagreementswithIndo-PacificcountrieslikeSouthKorea(2011),Singapore(2019),Japan(2019)andVietnam(2020),andeconomicpartnershipagreementswiththePacificstates(Fiji,PapuaNewGuinea,Samoa,andtheSolomonIslands).TheEUwillreapsignificanteconomicbenefitsfromtheexistingpacts,andpotential
37、tradedealswithASEANandSouthAsiancountriesandthefourQuadstates(India,Australia,Japan,andtheUS).23ConnectivityIn2014,theEUgavefreshimpetustoitsapproachtoconnectivitythroughdiscussionswithChinaandintheASEM.InOctober2018,theEuropeanCounciladoptedtheConnectingEuropeandAsia-BuildingBlocksforanEUStrategy/w
38、hichwasdevelopedaroundfourP川arsenergy,transport,digital,andpeople-to-peoplelinksandaimedforsustainable,secureandsmartconnectivity.24Thestrategyalsoaimedtoenhancetradeandinvestmentundertheexistingandevolvingrules-andnorms-basedframework.25TheEU,svaluepropositiononconnectivityfocusesontrade,businessan
39、dfinanceflowsthataresustainable,comprehensiveandrules-based.InSeptember2019,theEllsfirstpartnershiponconnectivitywasfinalisedwithJaPan.26InthejointministerialstatementissuedinDecember20201theEUandASEANoutlinedtheobjectivetopromoteconnectivitybetweenthetworegions.27ThiswasfollowedbytheEU-IndiaCompreh
40、ensiveConnectivityPartnershipinMay2021tosupport*,resilientandsustainableconnectivityprojects,inIndiaandotherregionssuchasAfrica,CentralAsia,andtheIndo-PaCifiC.28TheEirSnewIndo-Pacificstrategyisaprogressiononprevioussecurity,economicandconnectivityplans,suchastheEuropeanUnionGlobalStrategyandEuropean
41、UnionMaritimeSecurityStrategy.Inmanyways,theEU,snewIndo-PacificstrategyisaprogressionoftheEUGS,EUMSS,andotherregion-,country-,andsector-specificstrategydocuments.ThenewIndo-PacificstrategyemphasisesthattheEUW川reinforceitsstrategicfocus,presence,andactionsinthatregion.Itstressestheneedforalong-termpe
42、rspectivewhileretainingadequateflexibility,andhighlightssevenpriorityareas:sustainableandinclusiveprosperity;greentransitions;oceangovernance;digitalgovernanceandpartnerships;connectivity;securityanddefence;andhumansecurity.Thejointcommunicationstatesthatintensecompetition,militarybuild-upandincreas
43、ingtensionsinhotspotssuchastheSouthChinaSea,theEastChinaSea,andtheTaiwanStrait,directlyimpactEuropeansecurityandprosperity/Notably,FranceistheonlyEUmembercountrywitharegularnavalpresenceinthewiderIndo-Pacificregion.AsaresidentpowerwithislandterritoriesintheIndianOceanandthePacificOcean,Francehasbeen
44、deepeningitsmaritimesecuritycooperationwithcountriesintheregion,andmaintainsamilitarypresenceintheUAE5Djibouti,ReunionIsland,Mayotte,NewCaledonia,andFrenchPolynesia.30Ithasalsodelineatedjointregionalcommandsandmaritimezonesinbothoceansandhasconductedregularnavaldeploymentsandexercisesintheregion.Fur
45、thermore,FrancewasthefirstEUcountrytooutlineavisionfortheIndo-Pacificin2018,31andastrategyin2019.32IthaslongurgedforacomprehensiveEuropeanapproachtotheIndo-PaCifiC声andwilllikelybeatorchbeareroftheEU,smilitarypresenceanddeploymentsintheregionintheneartomediumterm.Thenewstrategydocumentalsoreferstoani
46、ncreaseinhybridthreats,andstressesthattheIndo-Pacificregionisvitalformitigatingclimatechangeandprotectingthedelicateecologicalbalance.OnChina,thedocumentstatesthatamultifacetedengagementandtheCAIwillbemutuallybeneficialbutaddsthattheEUwillcontinueto“pushbackt,whererequired.TheEU,soverallChinastrateg
47、yseekstoaddresssometradechallengesthroughdefensivemeasuresandsuitablebalancingwithtransatlanticcooperationwiththeUS.uWithintheIndo-Pacific,theEUhasmajortradeandinvestmentrelationswithmanycountries.AccordingtotheSeptember2021jointcommunication,EuropeandtheIndo-Pacificaccountforover70percentofglobaltr
48、adeingoodsandservices,andover60percentofglobalforeigndirectinvestmentflows.ThestrategyalsoindicatesplanstoconcludetradeagreementswithAustraliaandNewZealandandmakeprogressontradetalkswithIndonesia,India,Malaysia,thePhilippines,andThailandandtheeconomicpartnershipagreementwiththeEastAfricanCommunity.T
49、henewstrategyconsidersconnectivityasakeydrivingforceinitsoutreachtotheIndo-Pacificregion,andakeytoolforcooperationinthe21stcentury,andidentifiesJapan,India,andtheASEANascoreIndo-Pacificpartners.WhenseenincomparisonwiththeIndo-Pacificstrategiesandoutlooksofothercountries,theEllsstrategyhasseveraldistinctfeatures:WideScope:Whilethefocu
