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1、MacroeconomicdevelopmentsAfteracontinuedreboundin2022,theeuro-areaeconomywitnessedastrongdecelerationthisyear.I”2022,仪/gev出VZ-CCMU心Uzwtvpduhuh-to-334%CZnzmizemM/PezfhivCtaergypru/izvZwtMerof2CQ2-)ZetAn0vcUCnThZZLabotrJAwkPuMZ(X6*vlwJyJIc6y叶nAx#tfzMzmt/rlte*veez5Mpp6rfa吁SfiLLi(VXrrifvtczlnavcCMz%jD/o
2、f-H7wfVHmCKpMrWOV板冰5z吁2223.Fbr2223,CPP阶核eunrrezMdby06%wvWffarzyerQwG%Mz.lRealGDPgrowthandcontributions,euroareaConsumptionmbInvestment(GFCF)InventoriesinvestmentNetexportsRealGDPgrowth(Z)dajrEA2O邛rf-Hia检斓业Wi外Source:EiAnJPezu*v6m*vvfPertM*uLCZM/)妙-vivie/ftvt/.RmmtMLwavotdborJajdtMyf%jbk/UAzmeCFVnvprf
3、iavvMi/vcz11rrRee-rvyfu-廿wtake6n6mu/vc7wvczrcnMLNWkrdUjin/utrytMrvvuz5mewKhzwvcvwuiLu0vZ(i)cvejpoiprvjccttbOfrovro4roJW?UHXC/PaewrvculUzjuc)joMlewutMvvej;hz/M姑廿btj(z?mctzpvJILIFVOdobtiri-24%Tk出WtrV的m43%ivSfdbcrjjL核kvuj77p)nwMzPekZin/O(ober2022.7deliwe*vriwi%falLuenayf2rue(pt2-6vzZtAL(pwMwiv-/MzMrczm
4、njLowtirJbrfojCZnWVwiyprugezrwtcewin/ZzrvCnpri/-0)txlLYuaom忒他U他也心心口如VI必WdMktLSrviiWunz0-(X壮oczmwtC初OJiJrCZmpdnyv/5/(4GivOcfb,OfttirOFVujto-56%CfvJi),叶norwfhirewju*uprofit(seeBox3.1)de5t*如晶Cybrcznjv5*vu0(urwThzzyMeunmu(ietehzz(/eeinLferwy($ezSfcvAOVenlVJuMirJbi*vWu？n/3rojeeeztrkluZi*v-fMewtrAmildrebo
5、undingrowthisexpectedduetoeasingofinflationandastronglabourmarketBken224jz/5lCPviUun/(j)HinJpe*vConAniiin6u*vtcMMner5Mrvtyareafrom8.4%n2022to5.6%n2023,andthenfurtherdownto3.2%in2024and2.2%in2025.Coreinflation(?)isexpectedtobeslightlymorepersistent,however,increasingto5.1%in2023from4.0%in2022,andthen
6、subsequentlyfallingto3.2%in2024and2.5%in2025.(Graph1.2)inpricesovertheprevious10years(Graph1.3).Inanumberofcountries1includingtheBaIticstCroatiaandSlovakia,theshockisevenstronger.Graph1.3:Convergenceofunderlyinginflation,euroareaGraph1.2Jnflationbreakdown,euroareaEnergyandunprocessedfood(pps.)Otherc
7、omponents(coreInflatkn)(pps.)-HICP,allitemsSourceEuropeanCOrnmiSSion0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-ll(1)HICPinflationexdudingfoodandenergy(2)2019-2023cumulatedinflationcomparedto2009-2019cumulatedinflationSource:Eurostat,owncalculationsThedecreaseinenergypricesover2023haspartlyreducedthedifferencesininflatio
8、nratesbetweentheeuro-areacountries.In2022,theinflationdispersionintheeuroareawaslargelydrivenbydiferencesinenergyinflation,reflectingdifferenceintheenergymixandinthesourcesofimportedenergy,aswellassupportmeasuresimplementedinthevariousMemberStates.Energypricesareexpectedtodecreasein2023formostMember
9、States,withthestrongestdecreaseintheMemberStatesthatfacedthesharpestincreasesin2022,notablytheNetherIandsjEstoniaandBelgium.However,thecorrectioninenergypricesremainsfarfromcomplete,withsomecountriessettocontinuerecordingpositiveenergyinflation.MoreoverJnfIationexcludingfoodandenergyremainedhighinmo
10、stMemberStatesin2023,dueinparticulartothelaggingeffectofhighenergyprices.lntheeuroarea,thecoreinflationrecordedsince2019iscomparabletothecumulatedincrease?)CoreinflationisdefinedinthisreportasoverallHICPinflationexcludingenergy,food,alholandtobac.Thelabourmarketisclosetofullemployment,andwagegrowthi
11、sgraduallyrestoringpurchasingpower.Overthelasttwoyears,unemploymentratesthroughouttheeuroareahavestabilisedatrecordlowIeveIstStandingat6.5%inSeptember,downfrom6.7%inthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.Meanwhile,employmentcontinuestoincreaseinalmostoftheMemberStates,exceptItaIyjLatvia,CroatiaandEstonia,re
12、cordingfrommodesttomoderatecontractionoftheiremploymentratesinQ22023.Employmentgrowthisparticularlystronginlowenergy-dependentsectors,notablysomeservices(SeeSection3).Despitetheslowdowninactivityinthefirstpartof2023,thelabourmarketremainsverytight,witheuro-areajobvacancyrateremainingatelevatedlevels
13、(3%inQ22023).nthatcontext,wageshavesofarnotkeptpacewithinflation,whichislikelyduetoalaggedwagebargaining.In2023,thereareearlysignsofwageacceleration(seeSection2),althoughrealwagesareonlyexpectedtoreboundasoftheendof2023andrecovermoderatelyinthecourseof2024.Theeurorealeffectiveexchangeratehasapprecia
14、tedin2023dentingcostcompetitiveness.IXZLq-2Cf22.ictrrtizof-fhkvuu/v-frcupar/rycunrare/VcZj*czmcvnzSizyMjZzivUaflafytvivvv0*vrteufervuvtvemU/cz5j-cz?mfeCvt*kkuvzeurtrrtt5ivpruzIAVeZIezJ？nivXZreUIvecv5evZ5nn/M*vrSMtfCLblyfht%SbVJjUCiZV(GraPh1.4),o11vWm/coxM0-(PeZervez(ice/Se4VtvS).anr4rin/WZWzmc/VVtrW
15、mce(yaLuiamwezinz；rvteprfeuWvcLvLc(Stuv(uwtFruwx),TKihzle56zmewrUtuacroeu-TkeZeM0cunztmCioinfMtx-济曲Mt0V孑3好似心Mv(3Ar(ZV/aMiij0ivczjcmftcvHZMWtMemberwvMCMK0rtA/energyfcUz*vtzle(ram/of-odtjwhuvivQrtZ3(uefen/ivZurrtcuntn-i/v222.人tteorddbxz2teZivCtMTcz6emtx%XZzenergyxkZzeur*%rt0CMnatu)仅#TnUMeivZ向小依gferof2
16、O2(Graph13vvtv何叫3u161718MmSecondaryincomeMlTravelservicesGoodsexclenergyCUrreMa8untTheeconomicoutlookcontinuestobemarkedbymajorriskslinkedinparticulartogeopoliticaltensions.Me廿UvCruyeny5urcenergyir(rojcta.Svlt,vvLCci*u协W乃grizuvm(ufwftmv5CZ/fZ0-tw(zOM/teny叫耘痴ewuk/vpuAr,yMzeirzz0核ewh/MrCUV如丘rtzufivepd
17、wtruuyWuMz7zofM11xrUU1MM4v5n.TbivftmjwotMuvvatyfervInthelongerterm,theeuroareaeconomyfacessignificantstructuralchallenges.TKeezpdlcfuACIZUlzn-emvrk吁e5iej仇以/加%皿砧札力/0*1况拆vgencCnzeezwmu/pdtie/叶g(zLOetOryAnkzy他以y吁枷Z区Ware(SeeBox5.1y/oMiAovZU*wgzxiuotjDkyforZ/CMnr勿如/枷仔叶a4u*JdnAM次好”5dt?rvp).Te*cLlntmvlivfc
18、？nivpdfenLLwfKn)CyikfbrX5m%ImWofptluzin/f%uuWapjrjZzw)droof-pejityLonwfh4wL(mkof-lkmvovixvZzeunrrtzvrtzver,z/iucliFvucPuu核ILbZm的Mzrrv/WMrcovjekovoiwvUtrtOMZJLjloodi*v7M5Mrvuer,/W-,wttvtmezmzmuzH-l勿sevteetveaetw勿Mlen的fhjrwUfc?rvrelVCIiiVezobjcdivtPolicyimplicationsWeakergrowthin2023combinedwithpersis
19、tentinflationarypressuresunderscoretheimportanceofcontinuedconsistencybetweenmonetaryandfiscalpoficy.Tb-br(tchUv5yhzEiAKCepLank(EC)dwudJuhoocf-ktkfbrup&Ucyme廿vlzvWuIc/fuEC3能心ivMi叼/少ivOc4obrjjpze4tdJajczJmmtfe5C-5efoZw篌v2fr“lzzn”nzcLyn.Cp&Ucyceodwt3cey廿MzjuiaVtearyfiiybriuflwvb&doicr/m(ufvvcmviv3vdyk
20、vwueroxijhccok/jLM1ortjtdm/JiMWyWWKMfWzVutFntOJdUzVtEW,叶Z0vineM%ivy,WV6eJcztpzefcwryaC5%n我i*v223AM况2224,welt5pt协陶加看可zCbtffuyojnjL-u-u211v5mzMcrvtlper(IZVUliiFv(3)tz45%Mf(20220*wt2.100.aPruXjxeyjuWieIKVeimvmd应vv*tzrjuLdzdyiyj0diicr5rf-G6wvA(ZZzvtun/Thelabourmarkethasprovenresilientsofarandwageshavere
21、actedmoderatelytotheinflationsurgebutareexpectedtoaccelerate.ThzZ晔#-3MDIq必加PUWfcevnwtojbyvyIAVOnZJLiAmtmej-TkeZ59nUur-togcrwvfactoryUfvm(urpAijjulvcruleCinrGdurh0zwujrtzojikilLlevMr协inmefMzUurfor%i*v0rfuurHVr仇FPV应LMZLtbdWHAArkpdtuxeArtzMzat4/ivhrerPe4fifllurULrkZ,VVWte/A*vUyUrviv26?22.On2OX5i(r0vrez
22、wrforworkr丘CZumMcWvU)(ettrvkvuvivIWfourfar4zmuw/yZaLiv(WTwrto5/MAveZfcemtwrztimct-doi)?TWImKtALv*tzeeceXz协rezvrwfZzOyJft%Ume/JeelxvttceZjnXm/CZTu*fThetighteningofmonetarypolicycallsforacarefulmonitoringotrisksinthefinancialsector.TMZzm%blnzrezivuerefMOCCmtXeurtrILVeZtQIujCd?wcrtdi-SLoateeenrwwIAvezM
23、wkeecudivctmrlvvKrtru/wc/oyVr-asrhvvhredk43pvv(ErpeurnfalLivrtLejCCi*v2023,wtitumMi6i/WCAyVAezm*iCcul/r2AbczmuuBtgkzFVw加eMK*i4M-xtr0nZrll留大件比次zfwVVtlC-上咨SCr%M6aLjnmMivmwkMrkrnAywCtardizw-hn/fiaclatCMtrmc成竹办(的”讥如Teron次0JhovwktcvIeiyvvwvWOVI(aWlkkvuyd2y/ufeMLtMzrairiecrtewryoia4iJKZwke0*0muaLeactjcJHi
24、ghenergycostsandinflation,togetherwithgeopoliticaldevelopments,underlinetheneedtosupporttheeuroarea,scompetitiveness.TMzZitAmMy/毋外sggivZzZtjo-rtzvczwpArtz廿gLobuerv(v仇eCZcZ吁unirzvThzeCkheiM5Umuvtxfnlezpbnuuvcz?ImfuImXuforJArVeneyoodMAV/抄formecvn/of5meczturL/v-t-v/eun-rtezr,SIA以3viAnevo*viv忸击gc如MZeuSN
25、at5ifuuvJWiy0-eCtAx6ezmzmtz/uolLia(EiAroPeVOtwVtn2230)lKez(zM-emhzurt%czmfiv*vewilt处%/abilibj-fcr-jmojrodbfwttjjurInVe仅泄V供以立Z小/p11A%fc0-阳M族BZ%Mirim.ACa)Tdj(Jjdyiw(zmDmijffzivenjuLr/JjmA处avivZHfcmUztzMytlujZ/LeucKzm/pdiuycv5fWrtdtAetwtj0JihWfhwrovz/险侦八侬envtnnwm-/rcruL协加C时invem0cmpvinMprvft/ez5eet?TSc
26、ifiMjyjIzVuuCi/ur/Mri*vfkCopiLUkz*vVVtm(WpzuuzmxvCzczmajea抄zdLffartfir吁fieforfhcirizvmyPOLICYCHALLENGESRELATEDTOHIGHINFLATION2FISCALANDMONETARYPOUMXPersistentlyhighinflationdynamicscontinuetorequirefiscalandmonetarypolicytoworkintandem.Afttrkl5Mppdrv/6aL51HadotdtnZCCMD-工Qctiir/ixvCnyU?TVPnTmPeQ5iivp
27、dECBem)rfbrovvMmrSMtzCforafcr用aU比UWZM必夕欣KmMl他Zzkklebu?m/AHhzzre物OZrJULdyforfAtlU/om#wv/u抄CZ？nnMeKCeof-livtforKMonetarypolicyTheECBhasrespondedtothehighinflationshockwiththefastest-everincreaseinpolicyratessincethecreationofthemonetaryunion./“2?21,LnUzm/rzn7twWvy(ww(cvdMfceekofCCMD-Iq-ftWC由叱Oya必华啊oj/
28、Oeedmiv-Mwakjof-RMiA/aZJDvapjj(JknunzSMiivJtAIy7D22.i枷0EC以汉涉lieyaMxhof-45O(wispnmLM/!ikLunZz2622.avCzbet*vy6rvucycles7EC60brotM,AAZMrch2Z2jzECB6zmnMeX/e-0e-PtMIUrfMnvxEW4iWuwryPrMre曲nbbtjCjovVinUjrv5rmuvt5xECkvwmeryPCLicgcftfo-rCw0rfUr协Qre/wwofiMUfotv-Mz2.%eAZz5Amzvte5ZzEC6Pu/U/wtzvwummtz?tvj/cowpoy
29、cf-borvvwiuijoyfortAZM-twtLczrpdz%fc(NFC0*wiwicvconvtinie/-drvAUzCerrPnilL(z%Urhzndteimeziv2022/trivt*v如阳叫在3仇“勿必i*v(Graph22).7ecuivCZMtfeM(/)(/协Qi*v0Jdfyuojh,i*vpamW,i*vIZWZidNvyemmuvZz但5女伏以0v叶iAz必碌北yMi%M雄ILClkMiM抄6(eermtnZ/z/IaILirv%zWlUiVOVvez(*4)SovereignSPreadS一n-heeuroareahaveremainedS-aFSOfar6
30、g.AB2rgIinezwK0?sxb-yearsWSpvper223sCfv?sojXzi3O3IHZPeemter22J.hMLrvpW8Crf-s55oz/sssCyCX/5%cvKIT(ez$x5hFNIZmerJersfccHSCALPOUCYSTANCETheaggrega-eCOnMaCt-OnaryStanCe2023SUPPOrted一hereduc三*on5一nf一onI?sFisca-laanceSoUnX：2024-he三!sca-SianCe一SSe-sremainCo三ractonary3whrgeheierogene一一yacrossMembers-a-es26?
31、23AcMnAJezkvwtzfhzuv226JPPP?exf%urwyOf-I-5%o5svGb&,hnwl5iv三Mmxrs(Graph2.4L牛G卑哥8MeVperAuSSAlLcsfcjhrw.225(PRra44/PW;牛-、b2u4)IM0tlLyUB-SSA52?tLpMt-eiXry-TeiCIs-VvKee5XB?AxlvFs5?fbrpi-sOICenkibt寺ffvC/cmUVFB25?ex-Z55-ThsxST6WkPMWieZds5Brvuvi*v2.515056.5,15.25,3.5SsOGDPCOnhaC=OnarWConsolidationCralj4v2.4：Euroareafiscalstancein2024*Nation
