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1、CBREVIEWPOINTWe explore whether index- linked Government bond oc BBB corporate bond yields are more useful than nominal Government bond yields for analysing prime real estate pricingCBRE RESEARCH DECEMBER 2023IntelligentInvestmentAreGovernmentorcorporatebondyieldsabetterbenchmarkforUKrealestateprici
2、ng?Prime real estate yields rose in the last 18 months, but SDreadS over nominal and red G vlds r,r什u.,.lKeytakeaways-Primerealestateyieldsroseinthelast18monthstoreflectthec11oedinterestrateenvironmentbutthescreedbetweenIXMneyieldsand10-yearGovenmen(bondyieldsremainslightcomparedwiththelastdecadeCur
3、rent ocin miaM IOOk unfavourable based on these ComDariSOg but history shows the DoeAion can change OUiCkN-Smalls(xedsovernominalGovernmentbondyieldswereobserveddurmgtheGlobalFinancialCrisisof27-0.buttheyWefealsoConlmonDteCebeforethisWrthtacetreturnsforrealestatemetIhrouahacombnadonofinitialInCOmean
4、dcashAoworowth-index-linkedGovernmentbondsareabetterbenchmarkforthefkreeratewhenanaysinorealestate,becausecashtowrwthi$tearltobothtvoeso(investmentTheSDfeddbetweencrimeyieldsandIOVeari11(texrlnjedCbeenconsistentlypositivethroughtime,dithouohitisnownarrowerthanmrecentveers-CorDaatebondyieldshavealsos
5、hownaclo$6rcocresporfencewithrealestateyieldssincetheseinvestments,likerealestate,offeterminterestratesstartfllmnreflectionofadclmnUKinflationrateandanendtotheraterts11cycleHave spreads been more consistent bet ween real estate yields and these oher measures, and do such comparisons suggest that a t
6、ighter spread over nominalGovernment bond yields could be sustained Soingforward?IntroductionTheUKhasseenasustainedriseinbothshort-termadlong-terminterestratesoverthelasttwoveariThisfollowedadecadeinwhichtheBdnkofEnglandbaseratewasbelow1%,borrowingcostsweretYDtcallvvervlow.andGovernmentbondyieldswer
7、ealsoVCrVlow.supportedM9(XoQrammeofquantitativeeasing.Overthatsamedecade,awidemarginexitedbetweenrealestateyieldsandGovernmentbondViekKHence,whatEiahtbetheImDlicationSforUKrealestateDfiCinafromrecentrisesinGovernmentandcorporatebondyw(Kandhowfardorealestateyieldshavetorisetoreflectthechangedfinancia
8、lenvironment?TighterspreadsbetweenUKrealestateVieMSandnominalGovernmentbondyieldshavebeenobservedintheoastbutthesemhthaveresultedfromdifferentinvestorexpectationsaboutcashflowgrowthordifferencesintheriskoremumreouiredforrealestateinvestmentWeexploresomeoftheadvantagesandChaItefKW5ofCOnWinQrealestate
9、yieldsagainstindex-linkedGovernnwntbondyields,andCorooratebondyieldsasMtefnMeStonominalGovernmentbonds.Havespreadsbeenmoreconsistentbetweenrealestateyieldsandtheseothermeasures,anddosuchcomwrisonsSUQgeStthalatighterspreadovernominalGovernmentbondyieldscouldbesustainedQOinaforward?NominalGiltyieldsTa
10、rgetreturnratesforprimerealestateives(wntsshouldreflecttherisk-freerateofreturn,plusapremiumforbearingtherisksassociatedwithm!estate,butinvestorsdonotneedtoreceivetheirtargetreturnratefromcurrentinconeifthefuturecashflowsfromralestateinvestmentsareexpectedtorise.Therefore,theyieldtheyreceiveinitiall
11、ycanbeowfthantheirtargetrate.Thismeansthatyieldswillbenftuencednotonvbvrkreeratesandriskpremiums,butalsobygrowthexpectations.ThemostcommonproxyforariskreerateinanalysisofUKComCnefCiaIrealestateisthereemoverGltsaoaistanaHPrODertVprimeyieldoverthelast35veers.TheMpropertyyieldisconstructedasacompositeo
12、fprimeyieldsrecordedbyCBREforthehighstreetretail,office,andindustrialsectorsoftheUKrealestatemarket.ThecomparisonshowsthatthespreadbetweenrealestateyieldsandIOyearnolinkedGovecrwwntbondshavecashflowsthatadjustinlinewithChanQeSintheUKRetailPriceIndex,ameasureofinflation.Assuch,theyieldQuotedf(xsuchbo
13、ndsprovidesanindicationoftheifatoradustod-orreal,riskfroo-rateofreturn,abettthepriceofindex-linkedGhsmaycarryaDCefniUmastheyhelptoNecfaeMfUtIonrisksfacedbvinvestors.COmDeringrealestateyieldsandindex-linkedGirtyieldsisonewaytoexploretheriskpremiumforrealestatewithouthavingtoexplicitlyWeCifYgrowthexMC
14、tatkns.Thisisbecause.Ikrlsut.Wex-IinkedGltsrninvestmentthatoffercashflowgrowthbeyondthestatedyield,butataverylowtevelofrisk.Figure2displaystheIOycerindoinkedGiJtyieldagainstanaflpropertyprimeyieldoverthelast35year$.Thespreadbetweenthesetwomeasureshasvaried,butithasremainedpositiveOVeftireandndiffere
15、nteconomicenvironments,unlethespreadbetweenprimeyieldsandlvrnominalGiItyields.TheaveragespredoverindelinkedGWtyieldshasbeenwiderinthelast10years,paredtothedecadebeforethis,butthespreadhasnarrowedConsxJerabtyoverthelast18months.Visually,thereisalso9strongercorrespondencebetweenmovementsinindex-linked
16、GiltyieldsendprimerealestateViel(KThissuggestsindexlinkedGiltsareamoreusefulbenchmarkforreelestateDCiCinaHowever,9kequestioniswhethertheinfiatiorlinkedexpectationsforQfoWthreflectedinindex-linkedGihyolds.reanaoDcopriatecontrolforgrowthexpectationsinrealestate.AweakreUtionshipbetweenthetwocoulddistor
17、tanyinferenceabouttherealestateriskpremiumfromthespreadbetweentheseyie*dseries.FIGURE2:PrimeUKallpropertyyieldsvsUK10yearIndex-linkedGiltyields健落健馥馥馥馥彝馥涯熊溪靛靛襄-Kr real UK giltPrimUKallDroDeftYyieldSOur8CBRfResearchMrobcdCorporatebondyieldsMostUKcoroctebondsprovidefixedcashflows,butatahigheryieldthann
18、ominalGownmeatbondsofasimilarlengthbecauseoftheadditionalriskassociatedwithcorporatecovenants.Therefore,comperingrealestateyieldstocoxxatebondyieldsDrovidessomecontrolforvariationsinoeneralriskDerceotions.butftwillnokingahHkedcashflowsmtbeaweakproxyforrealestatecashHoWgrowth.bondyieldsAstronervisual
19、corresooodencwithcrimerealestatevldsSoreadmightbeaWNkefdoxyforrealestateriskDremiUmasaresult.BB-ratedcorp6ratebondYMdSShowsDnCln口forancomenvestmetCorooreteriskpremiummightbeaweakDrOxVforrealestateriskDrefnim.AStronoervisualcorresoondencwithcrimerealestateyieldsVariationsinexpectedcashflowgrowthforre
20、alestateCOmDIiCaSCOmDarisons.SOUf8CBftERMearcContactsRichAfdDikkndianABcnNkkknhiijf.tNam.I；KeedofReelEstMeInveetineot,I-11.EurooeXkm。小一.,AftHEMdfeODLEZ.tfrftl1wm,IEnetSirilStc*vnDrvAtinNklBariiviHeJofUKResearchDh!M.UKwe(rbSMiIorAMlytLUKtaHRlirfUltaMWHKCopyright2023.Allrightsreserved.TNsreporthasbeen
21、preparedingood何th,basedonCBRE,scurrentanecdotalandevidencebasedviewsofthecommercialrealestatemarketAlthoughCBREbelievesitsVieWSreflectmarketconditionsonthedateofthispresentation,theyaresubjecttosignificantuncertaintiesandconbngendes,manyofWiIieharebeyondCBREscontrol.Inaddition,manyofCBRE,sviewsareop
22、inionand/orprojectionsbasedonCBRFsSUbjeCbveanalysesofcurrentmarketdrcmstances.Otherfirmsmayhaveefferentopinions,projectionsandanalyses,andactualmarketconditionsintefuturemaycauseCBREscurrentviewstolaterbeincorrect.CBREhasnoobligationtoupdateitsviewshereinifitsopinions,projections,analysesormarketcir
23、cumstanceslaterchange.NothinginthisreportshoMbeconstruedasanindicatorofthefuturePerfonnan8ofCBREssecuritiesoroftheperformanceofanyothercompanyssecurities.Youshouldnotpurchaseorsellsecurities-ofCBREoranyothercompany-basedontheviewsherein.CBREdisclaimsallIidbilityforsecuritiespurchasedorsoldbasedoninformationherein,andbyviewingthisreport,youWahleMdaimsagainstCBREaswellasagainstCBREsaffiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents,advisersandrepresentativesarisingoutoftheaccuracy,completeness,adequacyoryouruseoftheinformationherein.
