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1、准备好了？Youready?一起来吧！1.etsgo!耶Yeah为了那些forthoseofyouthatwant想知道我们都是什么样的人toknowwhatwe,reallabout就像这样itslikethis,yall,来吧comeon10%的运气thisistenpercentluck,20%的技巧20percentskill15%的15percentconcentrated意志凝聚powerofwill5%的欢愉fivepercentpleasure,50%的痛苦50percentpain和100%的理由and100percentreason去记住这个名字torememberthen
2、ame他不需要hedoesntneed他的名字闪耀光芒hisnameupinlights他只希望他的声音.hejustwantstobeheard.donnydonny,你什么时候过来的？whendidyougethere?刚到我赶来看看比赛结尾Justnow.Thoughtdwatchtotheendofthegame.你准备去哪儿？Whereyougoing?他要去约会Hesgoingonadate.噢真的？Oh,yeah?耶Yeah.你认识那位女士Youknowthatgirldonna-耶donna,-Yeah.就是Val的婚礼上的那个fromvaswedding?就是那个宴会承包人-
3、嗯嗯Youknowthe,uh,caterer?-Mm-hmm.耶她Yeah,her.噢听我说我想Oh,hey,listen,Iwanted问你们小伙了们点东西toaskyouguyssomething.噢是这样的她就要过生日了Uh,itsherbirthdaycomingup,我想给她买♥♥个礼物andIwantedtogetheragift.就是些.Youknow,something.我不知道Idontknow,Ijust.不知道买♥♥什么好dontknowwhat.问题是Itsjustaquestion给她的时候你说什么ofwhat
4、youwanttosay.噢就说“生日快乐”怎么样Well,howabout,happybirthday?知道么最近英国两个Youknow,twomathematiciansfromuniversitycollege大学数学家提出了inIondonactuallyrecentlyaddressed同样的命题thisverysamequestion.数学家？Mathematicians?英国English数学家？mathematicians?他们建立了一套理论Theyusedgametheorytoanalyze来找出求偶期间最该送的礼物thebestcharacteristicsofacour
5、tshipgift.耶等等ChaHie没有别的意思Yeah.Well,nooffense,charlie.只是这两个没什么约会的人Itsoundstomeliketwomathgeeks听起来有点哗众取宠的意思whodontdatemuch.我不这么想Idotakeoffense.好了好了都闭嘴Yeah,allright,shutup.继续说So,keepgoing.好吧假设Welbassumingthatthegoalis目标是女方最终接受thefemale,sreceptiveness.好吧yes.他们发现奢侈品Theyfoundthatanextravagantgift,就是那些很贵on
6、ethat,scostlytotheman,但是对女人又没什么用的东西butofnorealfinancialvaluetothewoman,比较容易成功offersthebestchanceofsuccess.这样的话你给她买♥♥些花吧So,whydontyoubuyhersomeflowers?哎要不Youknowwhat?带她去一个很精致的餐厅吃顿饭Takehertodinnerinafancyrestaurant好的这个可行Okay,thatsdoable.你看？你们还是怀疑数学的魔力See?Youguysstilldoubtthepowerofmath?恩
7、要是涉及到女人Yeah,welLwhenitcomesto当然怀疑femalereceptiveness,yes.呵huh.eppesEppes.好的我就过去Right.Onmyway.什么事？Whatisthat?枪战要马上过去Shooting.Gottogo.嗨和过的开心Hey,havefunwith,uh.donnaDonna.对Right.谢谢伙计们thanks,guys.很感谢Appreciateit.嗨怎么回事？Hey,whatsgoingon?看起来像是一起路过枪击1.ookslikeadrive-by.什么开玩笑吧？为什么叫我们来？Whaareyoukiddingme?Whyd
8、theybringusin?我也是刚来Justgotdownheremyself.先到的警♥察♥被告知原地待命Copsonthescenesaytheyweretoldtosittightandwait.待谁的命-我的Forwhat?-Forme.garywalker警官1.ieutenantgarywalker,洛杉矶警♥察♥局帮派火拼组lapd,gangimpactteam.嗨doneppesHey.Doneppes,联邦调查局fbi.不要亮出徽章地方检察官nobadges.U.S.Attorney不希望当地媒体知道.doesntwa
9、ntthelocals有FBI的人在这toknowfbiisonthescene.噢？为什么？Oh,yeah?Andwhyisthat?看起来呢他们是不想暴露他的身份Well,apparently,theydontwantanyonetoblowhiscover.虽然我个人来看这为时已晚Thoughpersonally,!thinkitsalittlelate.但我说了不算Butmnotcallingtheshots.他叫antonrhimeshisnameisantonrhimes.我和他一起在长滩办过一起勒索案Workedanextortioncasetogetherdowninlongb
10、each.don他是个FBIDon,hesfbi.我们每天都用到数学Weallusematheveryday用来预测天气topredictweather测定时间totelltime管理金钱tohandlemoney.数学不只是公式和方程Mathismorethanformulasandequations.它是逻辑.It,slogic.是理性rationality.是用我们的大脑来解决lt,susingyourmind我们已知的最大的谜题tosolvethebiggestmysteriesthatweknow.数字追凶第2季第12集rhimes探员参与一起多机构合作的任务Agentrhimesw
11、aspartofamulti-agencytaskforce.他已经作了10个月的卧底了Hedbeenworkingundercoverfortenmonths.装成一个帮派成员？Asagangmember?是的他要混入23街组织Yeah.Hedinfiltratedthe23rdstreetsyndicate,找到组织的头脑andwasprovidinginformationregardingtheirleadership.所以他们把他杀了？So,theytookhimout?我想是的That,dbemyguess.你找到弹壳什么了没？Youfindanycasings?没有不过这很正常No
12、,butthatsnotunusual.路过枪击都是坐在车里开枪的Theytendtostayinthecarinadrive-by.好吧我和检察官谈谈Allright,mgonnatalktotheU.S.Attorney.你们继续找Meanwhile,youguysshouldjustkeeptakingcare证据好吧oftheevidence,allright?好的Yeah.餐馆成天那么多人Restaurantwasprettybusyallday.你们就找不到一个目击者？Youcouldntpullasinglewitness?噢在那儿就是这样的Well,itskindofthewa
13、yitiswiththesepeople,agent.在那里他们和我们是对头Itskindofusversusthemoutthere.我是说警♥察♥和平民是对头1meantlawmenversuscivilians.噢！Right.我知道我们要干什么Iknowwhatwerewaitingon.一个卧底探员被害Anundercoverfbiagentgetswhacked.我们都知道是怎么回事Weallknowwhathappened.23街的人发现r他的身份杀了他23rdstreetbangersfoundouthisidentityandhadhimkille
14、d.我认为我们应该狠狠报复一下Inmyopinion,weoughttohitthembackhardforit.这样的事情如果听之任之的话Thelongerathinglikethisgoesunanswered,我们在那里的其他人就很危险Tthemoredangerousitgetsforallofusoutthere.警官先生我很欣赏你的荣辱感IappreciateyoursenseofOutrageJieutenant,但是我们在作出进一步的butweneedtoconfirmthatagentrhimescover行动前需要确定他的身份是否暴露了reallywasblownbefor
15、ewemakeamove.各位这是robinbrooksYouguys,thisisrobinbrooks.她是助理地方检察官ShestheassistantU.S.Attorney和rhimes一起负责那个专案组runningthetaskforcethatrhimeswason.我们应该把能抓的23街WhatIwassuggestingwasthatwegrabasmany分子都抓来审问ofthese23rdstreetbangersaswecanforquestioning.这和告诉他们Whichwouldbeasgoodastellingthemrhimes是联邦探员没什么两样that
16、rhimeswasafederalagent.顾问小姐我们别忘了1.ook,counselor,letsnotforget.我们牺牲了一个同事Wehaveamandown.我认为WhereIcomefrom,这值得我们做点什么thatmeanssomething.23街帮派和1.ook.the23rdstreetsyndicateisresponsible多起谋杀fordozensofhomicides,勒索贩毒案相关extortion,drugtrafficking.我很遗憾但是我不会为了让你好受些msorry,butIamnotabouttoblowa14-monthinvestigati
17、on而暴露一个进行了14个月的调查tomakeyoufeelbetter.大家冷静一下好不好1.etsjusttakeabreathhere,okay?一位探员为了这个案子献出了生命Imean,anagentdidgivehislifeforthiscase.但是我认为but.IagreeThere,snopoint非到万不得已jeopardizingwhathewasworkingon我们不应该危害到他的调查untilweabsolutelyhaveto,对不对？right?让我们看看你们掌握的资料1.etmeseewhatyougot.23街帮派1.ikealotofgangs,和很多帮派
18、一样有分支机构23rdstreetsbranchingout.他们在至少9个州建立了商店Theyvesetupshopinoverninestates.我们不得不求助于联邦Wevehadtoturntofederalracketeering反敲诈机构来对付他们provisionstostopthem.也就是说你们在办个RICO案子（RlCO:反敲诈反♥腐♥败♥法案）Soyourebuildingaricocase?和对付其他的传统犯罪一样Samewaywevegoneaftertraditionalorganizedcrime.我们准备干掉头脑Take
19、downtheleadership.rhimes的任务就是Itwasagentrhimesjobtoidentifytheshotcallers23街的找到头脑是谁withinthe23rdstreetsyndicate.这个是当地帮派势力范围图Thisisamapoflocalgangterritories.这些边界都不固定因为Noneoftheboundariesareexact,astheyvary它们随帮派火拼而改变asborderinggangsbattle.它们是随机的不可预测的Theyrerandomandunpredictable.实际上Actually,它们两者都不是they
20、re-theyreneither.经济学里的一些模型可以用Economistshaveseveralmathmodelsthatwecanapply来推算这些都派的势力范围toanalyzehowgangspartitionterritory.其中的一个实际上是来源于Now,oneofthemwasactually植物生长预测originallydesignedtopredictplantgrowth.在一定的个体分布密度下Insituationsofdensepopulation,植物之间互相竞争plantsstruggleagainsteachother.它们争夺阳光Theyfightto
21、obtainsunlight,争夺统治地位toestablishdominance.后来发现anditturnsout,用来预测植物thatthesameequationsdesigned的方程topredictplantgrowth也同样适用于applythemselvesremarkablywell人类之间的tobordersbetweenrivalhuman地盘争夺populations,aswell.嗯这些旗子代表什么？Wh-wh-whataretheseflags?这些是帮派火拼的地点Thesearegang-relatedshootings.那久多长时间内的呢？Now,overwh
22、attimeframe?几年？Howmanyyears?年？-嗯是啊Years?-Mm-hmm.这些只是6个月的Thisisjustsixmonths.6.6个月？Six.sixmonths?这起码有.Theresalmost.有好几百起there,salmost100shootings.这还只是Andthoseareonlytheshootingsthatarerelated和23街帮派有关的tothe23rdstreetsyndicate.总的火拼数目Youwanttotalgangshootings,大约是1000起weretalkingmorelike1,000.不好意思六个月？！ms
23、orry.Insixmonths?是的Yeah.噢我想洛杉矶警♥察♥局没有作WoW.Well,ImassumingtheIapdhasntanalyzedthis回归树分♥析♥witharegressiontreeorrunitthrough也没有做泊松集聚团块分♥析♥apoissonclumpinganalysis.噢考虑到WelbconsideringthatIhavenoidea我不知道你在说什么东西我想没有whatthatmeans,mgonnasayno.他是一个数学家He,samathematici
24、an.Youknow,他们说的是数学语言theyhavetheirownlanguage.Charlie你发现什么东西了公？Charlie,what,doyouseesomethinghere?信息量很多ThereisalotOfinformationhere,我想建立一个模型andmalreadydetectingapattern.Now,如果我能得到这些枪击案的资料ifIcouldjustgetallfilesontheshootings,我就能告诉你rhimes探员的死是Imightbeabletotellyouifagentrhimesmurder符合模型waspartofapatte
25、rn,还是例外orananomaly.don商店里的Don,wehavethevideosurveillance监视录像送过来了fromtherestaurant.好的Allright.好的右面那个是rhimesAllright,sothatsrhimesontheright,那是谁？butwho,sthat?他叫.traviswattsThatstraviswatts.在23街里的地位很高He,shighupinthe23rdstreetstructure.怀疑是头脑之一Hesasuspectedshotcaller.看起来像是他约rhimesWell,itlookstomelikeheto
26、okrhimesout出来吃最后的晚餐foralastsupper,设计杀掉他sethimupforexecution.我我不知道I.Idon,tknow.来一次清扫行动怎么样？Whataboutawarrantsweep?我们经常做Imean,youdoitallthetime.这样可以不引人注目Wecouldplayitlow-profile,youknow?也就是说我们可以以此So,werundown23rdstreetmembers为名搜捕23街分子onopenwarrants,通过他们找到wattsusethatleveragetofindwatts.这样就没人知道rhimes卧底的
27、事了Thatway,nooneknowsaboutagentrhimes,cover.好吧Okay.啊这个仓库的味啊oh,thisgarage.你知道Doyouhaveanyidea有这里多少种致命霉菌么howmanydeadlyformsofmoldliveouthere?你知道过去四年洛杉矶Doyouhaveanyideahowmanygang-relatedshootings发生过多少起帮派火拼么？therewereinIosangelesinthepastfouryears?显然我不知道确切数字ObviouslyJdonthavethatexactfigure,但是我知道你知道buts
28、omethingtellsmeyoudo.那好猜猜看Well,takeaguess.尽管猜.所有的枪击Justgoahead-allshootings,致死的不致死的都算non-fatalandfatal.来吧猜猜看多少？Goahead,takeaguess.-Howmany?好吧过去四年一起算的话？Okay.Overthelastfouryears?大概有1000起吧Idontknow.Letssayathousand.差不多8000起Almost8,000.真的！-是的Really?-Yeah.其中2000起致死2,000ofthoseresultedindeaths,而且大多数发生在我们
29、周围12英里内andmostofthemoccurredtenor12milesfromhere.天哪这些数字很惊人Gee,thosenumbersareoverwhelming.是的IaiTy数据很多Theyare.Theresalotofdatahere,不过警♥察♥知道凶手是谁larry,butthepoliceknowwhotheplayersare.要是我能找到一起火拼AndifIcanjustfindthekeyattributes和其他火拼之间的联♥系♥toconnectonecrimetoanother,我就可以找到一个算
30、法Icanwriteanalgorithm把火拼和帮派分子都联♥系♥起来toconnecttheshootingstothegangmembersinvolved.但.是Charlie这个问题-实在是太复杂Butcharlie,theseissues-theyrejustsocomplicated.我的意思是说Andyouknow,lmean,他们的要求太过分了点Whatyouredescribing-thatseemslikealottoask,即使是donevenfordon.don实际上只要我分♥析♥其中的一个Well,dondid
31、onlyaskforhelpwiththisonecase,but,uh,但其他人就不应该享受正义么？dontalltheseothervictimsdeservejustice?伙计们Guys.游戏结束了Gameover.把枪收回去哥们Takeitback,man.让我们决出胜者Wellletyougetwinners.啊哈伙计这可不行我们必须现在就停下来Nah,thataintgonnawork,bro.Wegotnow.都趴在地上Ineedyoualltogetdownontheground.你You趴在地上Hittheground.快点Comeon.你们知道怎么做Youknowthed
32、rill.交给我嗨Igothim!Hey!给我回来！Getbackhere!嗨！站住！Hey!Stop.!嗨你站住你Hey,you,stop,you.就站在那Stoprightthere.站住举起手来Stop.handsup.转过来Turnaround.举起手Handsup.把手举到头顶Handsonyourhead.怎么回事？Whatthehellsgoingon?我问到底是怎么回事？Isaid,whatthehellsgoingon?夫人我已经控制住了一切好吧MaamJ,vegoteverythingundercontrol,okay?你控制住了什么？Youvegotwhatunderco
33、ntrol?夫人没事的Maam,everythingisfine.我只是例行公事mjustdoingmyjob.你有搜查令公？Doyouhaveawarrant?什么？Excuseme?我是这个社区中心的负责人mthedirectorofthiscommunitycenter,我对这栋大楼里发生的事负责andmresponsibleforwhathappensinthisbuilding.我没有搜直令No,Idonthaveawarrant,我在追踪嫌犯我不需要那个andIdontneedonetopursueasuspect.john把孩子送到后面去John,takethekidsbacki
34、ntheroom.来吧孩子们我们走了Comeon,guys,letsgo.和我们没什么关系-快点Thisdoesnthaveanythingtodowithus.Comeon.你没事吧Areyouallright?嗯他在追我Uh,heranafterme.而我什么都没做Iaintdonothing.我叫他停他反而跑Hewastoldtostop,andheran.也许是因为你拿着枪呢Well,maybethegunhadsomethingtodowithit.孩子们来这里是远离暴♥力♥的Kidscomeheretogetawayfromviolence.需要帮忙么？
35、Youneedsomehelp?警官没事的一切okEverythingsunderControlJieutenant.夫人我是在工作Maam,Ihaveajobtodo,你不应该阻止我andyouneedtoletmedoit.一切都好Everythingsfine.看见了吧这就是我说的不合作Youseewhatmtalkingabout,aboutthelackofcooperation.呵呵So,guesswhat.现在anthony不是有了-项Anthonyherehasgotnotone,而是两项指控buttwooutstandingwarrants.对吧anthonyIsntthat
36、right,anthony?你非这么说的话Ifyousayso,man.是的我这么说Yeah,man,Isayso.不过好消息是Onlygoodnewsis,today今天我们也许会给你一次机会Wemightgiveyouachancetochangeyourluck.是什么？Howisthat?我们在找你的一个朋友Werelookingforafriendofyours;你可能跟他很熟somebodyyoumightrollwith:TraviswattsTraviswatts.anthony你帮我们的话Anthonyyouhelpus,今天的事我们就当没发生maybeweworryabou
37、tthesewarrantsanotherday.怎么样anthony?Whatsitgonnabe,anthony?travis你昨天晚上在哪里？Wherewereyouthenightbeforelast,travis?我不知道很多地方吧Idontknow.Alotofplaces.你知道的我的到处换地方Igetaround.Youknowhowitis.这是6:20的时候你和antonrhimes在一起Thisisyouandantonrhimesat6:20.6:45时Onlyat6:45,anton死了anton,sdead.是的我当时和他在一起Yeah.So,Iwaswithhim
38、.他被杀的时候你就不在？Andnotwhenhegotshot.我去拿手♥机♥了Iwentbackformycellphone.噢这么走运啊Thatskindofluckyforyou.为什么要问我这些问题？Whyareyouaskingmeallthesequestionsanyway?他被杀的当晚你和他在一起对吧Youweretherewhenhewasmurdered,right?发生在他身上的事会妥善解决的Andwhathappenedtohimwillbedealtwith.什么妥善解决？What,sdealtwith?我不会说些让自己被起诉的话mnots
39、ayinganythingthatwouldincriminateme.但是现在这个时候Butrightaboutnow,hoover公园的一些光头党正收到一条信息someshavedheadsinhooverparkaregettingamessage.就是说23街在报复了So,23rdstreetsretaliating.要我一个Takeoneofmine,要你五个mgonnatakefiveofyours.如果23街真的报复了If23rdstreetreallyisretaliating,那么他们就不知道rhimes是FBItheresnowaytheyknewrhimesisfbi.我
40、刚和walker通了电♥话♥Justgotoffthephonewithwalker,hoover公园的一个帮派Agangunitinhoover刚刚遭到3次路过枪击袭击parkjustconfirmedthreeseparatedrive-byshootings.怀疑是23街的人干的23rdstreetssuspected.也就是说rhimes的身份还没有暴露So,rhimescoverwasstillintact?但是他没暴露的话Butifhiscoverwasntblown,为什么会被杀呢？whythehellwashekilled?要是rhimes的身份没有
41、暴露Ifrhimescoverwasntblown.那么在街上Thenonthestreet,他就是一个普通的帮派分子hewasjustanothergangmember.谁会杀他呢？Whatgothimkilledthen?口角？错误的纹身？Turfdispute?Wrongtattoos?23街报复hoover公园23rdstreetretaliatedagainsthooverpark是因为他们认为是对方杀了rhimesbecausetheythinkthattheykilledrhimes.这两个帮派Thesetwogangshavebeen从23街清了goingateachother
42、hard,hoovere公园卖♥♥家的eversince23rdstreet一船毒品rippedoffadrugshipment开始就拼的很凶fromhooverparkssupplier.耶但是你们Yeah,butyourguyskeeptrack记录了所有的帮派火拼对吧ofallgangrivalries,right?对头清单Anenemieslist.每次交来了一份涉及帮派成员Everytimeanamecomesupin的文件我们就把名字记下abeefwitharivalgangbanger,wewriteitdown.我想看看dliketotakealoo
43、k这些报告atthosefieldreports,看看rhimes被杀seeifrhimeswastargeted是因为他是一个23街的成员forbeing23rdstreet还是个人原因或者oritwaspersonalor.我想我们应该Youknowmaybeweshouldlook查查个人方面intothepersonalside.也许他不方便Maybehehadaconcernthathe跟检举人说didnttelltheprosecutor,但是可能他告诉了他妻子butmaybehetoldhiswife.值得查直Definitelyworthcheckingout.donCharl
44、ie来了Don,charlie,shere.他要给你看些东西He,sgotsomethingtoshowyou.现在你们看到的是Nowwhatyoureseeingis*个行为序列分♥析♥abehavioralsequenceanalysis.是过去四年内It,sasequentialrepresentation枪击事件的序列表示ofshootingsoverthepastfouryears.这对我们有什么用？Andwhatdoesitgetus?这种动态图表Well,thiskindofdynamicgraph是一个很好的预测工具isanamazinglygood
45、predictor我叫它枪击链ofwhatvebeencalling枪击链？shootingchains.枪击链Shootingchains?枪击间的联♥系♥Shootingsthatarelinked一个和另一个另一个和另外一个onetothenext,thentothenext.你是说报复袭击Youmeanretaliationshootings.我们已经知道这些了Wealreadyknowaboutallthose.我要说的是Well,whatmsayingis也许我们thatitmightbepossible可以据此找到tofollowtheseshootingchains初始者backtotheorigi
