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1、数字追凶第二季第13集Numb3rsSeason2Episode13今晚手气好啊mfeelingluckytonight兑换5000美金changing$5,000.这里有个很自信的人Nowtheresamanwithconfidence.是啊要不是还有两个前妻要我养活Yeah,dlovetojoinyou,partner我也这么赌一把butIhavetwoex-wivescountingonme.你呢？Howaboutyou?我还是老样子3号♥铁杆出球（力求长远）Ithinkllstickwithmy3-ironoffthetee.简单安全啊Straightandsafe,hu
2、h?分局Splitthem.帅哥你从哪儿来？Whereyoufrom,kid?莫斯科Moscow.但是我经常来洛杉矶打理我父亲的生意Butmydad,sbusinessbringsmetoL.A.alot你♥爸♥爸的生意一定不错吧Daddysbusinessmustbegood,huh?哦你是很走运（2副花牌）Youarelucky,son.庄家爆引（输了）Dealerbusts.看来今晚大家都很走运啊lookslikeeverybodysprettyluckyheretonight.过来玩玩看看你的运气Sitin,findoutforyourself.今天输的太多
3、了改天吧Ilosttoomuchalready.Maybenexttime.你要走么Youleaving?我只是想呼吸点新鲜空气Justneedalittlefreshair.在洛杉矶？祝你走运InL.A.?Goodluck.我要我的车Ineedmycar.对不起先生我们现在人手不够你要稍等一下Sorry,man,wereshorthanded.Itsgoingtobeawait.要是你想自己去开我可以告诉你位置IfyouwanttogetityourselIcantellyouwheretogo.你想要钱？Youwantmymoney?执勤警♥察♥l个小时前接到的
4、报案Taskforcegotthecallaboutanhourago.枪击是在晚上10点10分的时候发生的Gunshotwasreportedat10:10P.M.有目击者公？Anywitnesses?现在还没有Notsofar.过去六个月这里发生了4起抢劫Thatmakesfourrobberiesatthislocationinthepastsixmonths.但是这次是谋杀Firsthomicide,though.经理说上次抢劫后他们就安了摄像头Managersaystheyinstalledacameraafterthelastrobbery.可能会拍到点什么Mightgetaloo
5、koffthat.我们在车里找到了这个Alsofoundthisinthetruck.很多笔记本Thatsalotofnotebooks.都是数字公式It,sallnumbers,equations.这我们不怕我们认识人1.uckyforus,weknowaguy.我们是认识人Wedoknowaguy.钱包被掏空了钱信♥用♥卡♥都不见TWalletwastossed.Cashandcreditcardsaremissing.YuriChernov86年出生YuriChernov.Born86.19岁年轻的赌徒19.Thatskindofyoungfor
6、ahighroller.是啊huntington理工大学学生Yeah,HuntingtonTechundergrad.课间休息选错了时间Pickedthewrongnighttotakeastudybreak.是啊Yep.我们每天都用到数学Weallusematheveryday用来预测天气topredictweather测定时间totelltime管理金钱tohandlemoney.数学不只是公式和方程Mathismorethanformulasandequations.它是逻辑.It,slogic.是理性rationality.是用我们的大脑来解决我们已知的最大的谜题It,susingyo
7、urmindtosolvethebiggestmysteriesweknow.我早就听说过但是从来没看谁演示过Wellveheardaboutthisbutveneveractuallyseenitdemonstrated.你确信这能行？Areyousurethisisgonnawork?当然了Absolutely.嗨charlie到处找你Hey,Charlie,Ivebeenlookingforyou.嗨嗨快过来Hey,hey,hey.Comeoverhere,man.这是我为我的数学与分子一流体力学入门Sothisisforalecturempreparingmathandmolecule
8、s:的演讲准备的Anintroductiontofluiddynamics.我看像是樟脑球和汽水Itlookslikemintsandsodatome.我解释一下两个字:表面张力Well,twowords:Surfacetension.汽水发出滋滋声是因为里面有气体二氧化碳TheStuffthatgivessodaitsfizzisagas,carbondioxide.把气体固定在里面的力量是表面张力Whatholdsthegasinsidetheliquidissurfacetension.我们都知道流体力学里表面张力是很重要的AndWeallknowtheimportanceofsurfa
9、cetensioninfluiddynamics.我们知道？Wedo?汽水里面的小气泡Bubblesofgasinthesoda受到周围液体的粘滞阻力而平衡experienceviscousdragforcefromthesurroundingliquids.樟脑球的加入会破坏热力学上稳定的超饱和二氧化碳的稳定Themintshyper-excitethethermodynamicequilibriumofthesupersaturatedco2削弱表面张力weakeningthesurfacetension导致气体很快的释放非常快causingthegasestoescaperapidly,
10、veryrapidly.你们作这个也给钱？Youguysactuallygetpaidforthis?虽然你弟弟说的有点孩子气Despiteyourbrother,sadolescentgrin但这里面确实有很复杂的数学原理thisisactuallyverysophisticatedmathhere.我不知道你们怎样我是准备好了Idontknowaboutyouguys,butmreadytodothis.你们呢？Areyouguysready?后退Stepback.你们作这个不需要许可啊什么的？Sureyoudontneedapermitorsomethingforthis?耶！太漂亮了Y
11、eah!Thatsawesome.耶很酷Yeah,thatwasprettycool.那么现在谁负责清扫呢？Sowhocleansallthisupnow?我我来清扫不过可能要过一会后Iam.gonnacleanit,probably.later.我想你不是来看这个的吧Uh,massumingyourenotherefortheshow.哦是啊Um,yeah.这个人叫YuriChernov是Huntington理工大学的一个学生ThisisYuriChernov,whowasactuallyamathstudentatHuntingtonTech.他们的本科教育计划不错Theyvegotabr
12、illiantundergradprogramthere.耶他昨天被杀我们在他的车里找到了这个Well,hewasmurderedlastnightandwefoundthisinhiscar.我想你也许能告诉我们是什么Thoughtmaybeyoucouldfigureoutwhatitmeans.看来像是概率分♥析♥Thoseareprobabilitycalculations.我可以看看么这些方程很眼熟.IfIcould,theseequations,theyjustseemalittlefamiliartome.你曾经用过？Haveyouworkedwith
13、theseequations?我也不知道要是我能仔细研究一下的话Idontknow.IfIcouldjustexaminethemmoreclosely.那好那我.我可以在你办公室复印一下么？Allright,letme.canImakeacopyinyouroffice?嗨larry?Hey,larry?噢厄.Oh,uh.我只是去复印一份马上拿回来好吧llbringitrightback.mjustgonnamakeacopy,allright?Yuri的父母今天就飞来了Yurisparentsareflyingintoday.我不知道怎么跟他们说Idontknowwhatmgoingtot
14、ellthem.要是你不方便的话Well,1cantalktothemforyou我可以替你告诉他们ifthatwouldmakethingseasier.不该我告诉他们No,I-Ishouldbetheonetotellthem.他们对我很好Theyalwayslikedme.真的？你们认识多久了Really?Howlongdidyoutwodatefor?大约一年吧Aboutayear.我们几个月前分手了Webrokeupacoupleofmonthsago.可以问一下分手的原因么？MayIaskwhy?赌博Thegambling.一开始还是周末怡情的小赌Atfirst,itwasjust
15、sortofaweekendthingforfun.后来就成了他唯一作的事唯一谈的事Thenitgottobethatsallhewouldtalkabout,allheddo.他每天每个礼拜都赌He,dplayallday,allweekend.然后他背上了赌债？Anddidhestartgettingintodebt?正好相反他总是赢Itwastheopposite.Hejustkeptwinning.赢的多了Yuri就染上了一些赌徒习气“Andthemorehewon,Yurigotintothiswholeplayervibe-穿着打扮很怪做事也是dressingdifferently
16、,actingdifferently.这就是你们分手的原因？Andthatswhyyouguysbrokeup?糟糕的是几天前我还Crazythingis,acoupleofdaysago认为我们能和好1thoughtwemightgetbacktogether.他打电♥话♥道歉说他准备收手了Hecalledandapologized.Saidhewasgoingtoquit.他说原因了么？Didhetellyouwhy?他说他犯了一个错误Hesaidhemadeamistake.大错误但是一切都会没事的abigone,butthatthingsweregoingt
17、obeokaynow.不好意思稍停一下好不就一会谢谢Excuseme,doyoumindstoppingjustforasecond?Thanks.yurichernov是近距离被9毫米子弹射中的SoYuriChernovisshotatcloserangewithaninemillimeter?是啊9毫米的子弹应该可以找到弹壳的Right,ninemil,Imean,thereshouldbesomecasings.什么也没找到Yeah,nonewerefound.最后那起抢劫的人说劫匪用的是点38的手♥枪♥Youknow,thewitnessfromthelas
18、trobberyatthecasinodescribeda.38caliber.是啊Right.整个事情就像是不同的人干的所以枪也不同Thewholethingfeelslikeadifferentguytome,sodifferentgun.耶Yeah.伙计们什么事？Whatsup,boys?怎么了Whatsgoingon?看看这个Checkthisout.我们在yurichernov的房♥间内找到的WefoundtheseinYuriChernovsdormroom.啊驾驶执照假身份证Ah,driverslicenses,fakeids.他的衣柜里还有好多行头卫生间里还有染发
19、剂什么的Hehaddifferentwardrobesinhiscloset,hairdyesinhisbathroom.耶看看这些东西Yeah,Iookatthis.他每张里面看起来都不一样He,sgotadifferentlookineachoneofthese.我查了他的成绩单全是A简直是一个数学怪胎Checkedhistranscripts,straightAstudent,totalmathgeek.但是这些都不符合他的身份是吧Well,noneofthisfitsthatprofile,right?是的不过他的前女友说他给人当牌手No,buttheextoldmethathewas
20、playingtheplayerrole想退出andthathewantedoutofit.我们从监视录像里找到什么了没？Didwegetanythingfromthesesecuritycameras?没这里是盲区Nothing.Theyreblindspots.我们有必要进里面看看么ShouldWecheckinside?俱乐部无所不知对吧Clubseyeinthesky,right?是啊也许我们能找到罩着他的人Yeah,maybewecanfindsomeoneshadowingthekid.怎么了charlie?Somethingwrong,Charlie?我在想我那场关于概率学应用的
21、课vebeenthinkingaboutthislectureIgaveonappliedprobability.著名的赌场之夜？What,thefamouscasinonight?哦是的“赌博中的概率学应用”Oh,yes,applyingprobabilitytogamesofchance.*eppes的经AnEppesclassic.把课堂变成了一个小赌场Turningtheclassintoamini-casino把概率学应川到轮盘赌扑克21点上andapplyingprobabilitytheorytoroulette,poker,blackjack.非常火爆Getskidshooke
22、d.我去年在huntington客座讲学的时候讲的这场课IgavethatlectureasmyguestlectureatHuntingtonTechlastyear.等等你不会认为你的演讲Wait,yourenotseriouslyproposingacausalconnection和这个孩子的死有关吧betweenthisstudentsdeathandyourlecture?查理学生们本来就赌Studentsgamble,Charlie.还记得那些麻省理工学院的学生么？他们想赌成百万富翁RememberthoseMITstudents?Theytookthecasinosformill
23、ions.那本最近出的21点策略的书又怎么说？Howaboutthebookthatjustcameoutonblackjackstrategy?它会毁掉拉斯维加斯？Whatwasit,bustingvegas?不过也许这些学生们真看过这本书Okay,maybethisstudentreadthatbook.其实我才是应该忏悔的人1.ook,ifanything,Ithinkmtheonetoprofferameaculpahere.don把那些笔记本给我时我马上就认出是什么了ThemomentDonshowedmetheseequations,Irecognizedthemimmediate
24、ly.什么？What?那是些记牌方程准确点说是21点（黑杰克）Thesearecalculationsforcardcounting,blackjacktobeprecise.什么你是个21点赌徒？What,youreablackjackstud?我曾经是一个21点赌徒好吧Wasablackjackstud,okay?在我未完成的自传中Andintheunfinishedbiographyofmylife这一章已经完结了thatisverymuchaclosedchapter.除了很大量的计算外记牌还涉及到什么数学Outsideofbulkcalculations,what,sinvolved
25、incardcounting?你说你去听了我的课Yousaidyouattendedmylecture.我不想玩什么轮盘赌1hadtoduckoutafterroulette.我说谎了对不起Iwaspreppingformyorals,sorry.耶耶还是eppes的经典呢Yeah,yeah,somuchforanEppesclassic.21点里面全是数学Well,blackjackisallaboutmath.目标是尽量接近21点而不超过它Thepointistohit21withoutgoingover.游戏里遵循有条件随机原则Thegameisruledbyconditionalpro
26、babilities.你已经看到的影响到你将看到的Whatyouseeaffectswhatyouregoingtosee.如果出了1张AIfanaceisdealt那么剩下的牌里就少了-张Athentheresonelessaceintheremainingcards.记牌者的优势是知道出了什么牌Andknowinghowthecardsarelikelytobedealt也就是知道将出什么牌workstothecardcountersadvantage由于玩家可以决定要不要牌becauseplayerscanaskforacardwhenevertheywant.而庄家在点数少于17的时候
27、必须要牌Butadealermusttakeacardwhenthetotalisbelow17而点数在17和21间的时候又不能要牌andcanttakeacardwhenthetotalisbetween17and21.因此对庄家来说小牌有利Solowervaluecardsfavorthedealer因为他爆引的几率小becausethereslesslikelychancethathellbust奥2121.与之相反的是大牌就是花牌Theoppositeistrueforpicturecards.每个都是10点Eachofthemareworthten.这对玩家有利因为剩下的花牌越多Th
28、eyfavortheplayer,becausethemoreofthemthatareleftinthedeck庄家就越容易爆引themorechancesforthedealertobust.24庄家爆引24,dealerbusts.记住准确的牌数很难Nowkeepingexacttrackisnteasy但是记牌者用到一些特殊的技术比如butcardcountersusecertaintechniques,like,uh.比如分配权值likeassigninggeneralvalues.嗯2到6算正1花牌10大A算负1Uh,plusoneforcardstwothroughsix,min
29、usoneforpicturecards而789算0aces,tens,zerosforseven,eight,nine.larry厄Okay.Larry.Uh.要是我说错了你更正一下well,msureyoullcorrectmeifmwrong不过这不就得带一个计数器么butdoesntthatallowthecardcountertokeepatally?是啊是啊计的数越多对玩家越有利Yeah,yeah,yeah.Highnumbercountfavorsaplayer他们根据这个来下注theymaketheirbetsaccordingly.不会有人发现么？Doesntthatattr
30、actattention?当然有可能而且有些时候会把命丢掉Yeah,ofcourseitdoes.Sometimeswithgraveconsequences.你被抓住过Yougotcaught.无所不知拍到yurichernovEyesintheskyhasYuriChernovgambling那天从下午3点开始赌了7个小时forsevenhoursthatday,startingat3:00.他一共赢T2万美金Hemade20grand.赌徒带着很多现金Allright,sohighroller,alotofcash这点和其他抢劫类似.sameastheotherrobberies.只有一
31、点不同就是其他抢劫没升级到暴♥力♥Exceptnoneoftheotherrobberiesescalatedtoviolence.这正是我想说的ThatswhatIwasgoingtosay.除非是谋杀1.etalonehomicide.我看不出一个像chernov这样的人会和拿枪的人过不去AndIdontseeChernovchallengingaguywithagun.好吧那我们就当是谋杀来办Well,so,thenwe,retalkingmurder.不过这样我们就会去掉进查那堆化妆行头还有假证件里Yeah,andthenyouthrowinthefakei
32、dsandthedisguises我觉得这里面有比抢劫变故更深的东西and1justthinktheressomethingmoreherethanarobberygonewrong.我知道你的意思我同意Iseewhatyouresaying,andIagree.嗨伙计们嗨Hi,guys.Hey.larry有话跟你们说1.arryhassomethinghedliketosaytoyouall.是的don我要向你道歉Yeah.Um,Don,Ioweyouanapology.我因为一些.过去的非科学应用方面的原因Iwithheldmyinsightsduetopersonaldiscomfort
33、with,uh.隐瞒r些事情-哦等等.你在说什么呢？pastnon-scientificexploits.-Whoa,What.whatareyoutalkingabout?你在yurichernov车里找到的笔记本ThenotebooksthatyoufoundinYuriChernovscar里面是记牌方程theyrefilledwithcard-countingequations.larry认为yuri在赌场玩21点的时候记牌1.arrythinksthatYuriwascardcountingatblackjackattheclub.是么你怎么知道的？Yeah?Howdoyouknow
34、that?larry你是说你过去是一个记牌手？Areyousayingthatyouwereacardcounter,Larry?关键的一点是赌场还有其他赌徒Thesalientpointhereisthatcasinosandclubs,evenotherplayers-都认为记牌是作弊行为theyregardcardcountingascheating这可能会导致一些暴♥力♥事件andthispracticehasledtocertainactsofviolenceonoccasion.教授先生只是Theonlythingis,professor我不是想推&he
35、arts;翻♥你的理论andIdontmeantodisyourtheory-只是我们看完了整卷带子butwevebeenlookingatthistape这个家伙一直在喝酒时不时的下个大的andthiskidhesbeendrinkingandthrowingmoneyaroundhaphazardly.我是说看来不像是有什么计算Imean,itdoesntreallylooklikeasystem.看来就是走运而已Itjustlookskindoflikedumbluck.“走运而已“一共赢r多少钱呢Andthesumtotalofsaiddumbluck?2万美金20gra
36、nd.要想作弊方法不只有一种Tobeatthehouse,theresmorethanonewaytoskinacat我们能把带子倒回Can-canwesomehowjustrollbacktothepointyurichernov开始玩的时候么whereYuriChernovfirstbeginstoplay?记牌者成功的最大问题就是Okaynowthecardcounterfacesonemajorobstacletosuccess.赌局透明化transparentbettingpatterns.想赢钱Inordertomakemoney记牌者就必须根据计算结果来增减他的赌注acardco
37、unterhastoraiseorlowerhisbetsbasedon-onthecount.没错所以出现了一个小队Thatsright,andthatswheretheteamcomesin.小队用观察员来计数Ateamusesaspottertocount.观察员的赌注很小尽量不引人注意Nowthespotterwillbetsmall.Hestaysinconspicuous.但是他会在计数结果高的时候示意主赌手Butthatspotterwillsignalthebigplayerwhenthecountishigh.你看到了么就是他Thereyougo,rightthere,tha
38、t,shim.你说这个穿紫色衣服的？Okay,soyouresayingtheguyinthepurple这个预科生是观察者？thepreppyguy,isourspotter?噢除非他有一个容易痒痒的耳朵Well,Imean,unlesshejusthasanitchyear.等一下Waitaminute.这个穿黄绿相间衣服的家伙.Thatguythatjustwalkedin,intheyellowandgreen我们见过他对吧weveseenhimbefore,right?是的实际上他刚刚赌过Yeah,actually,hewasplayingearlier他和chernov下注方式-一
39、样andhewasthrowingmoneyaroundthesamewayChernovwas.他是不是也和我们的预科生观察员一起？Wasthisguyplayingwithourspotter,thepreppyguy?是的他们两在一张桌子上Yeah.Theywereatthesametable.好吧找到了Well,thereyougo.这3个人是一伙的Andthentherewerethree.也就是说我们面对的是一伙记牌者So,werelookingatateamofcardcounters.是的要是这是他被杀的原因yeah,well,look,ifthatswhogotChernov
40、killed我们最好找到他的搭档因为他们很可能就是下一个Webetterfindthosepartners,causetheyrenext.这些人都化了妆Allthekidsareindisguises.找他们可能要花些时间Itmighttakesometimetofindthem.要是chernov是一个学生那么也许另外两个也是IfChernovwasastudent,maybetheothertwoare,also.知道去哪了么Youknowwheretogo.Huntington理工大学HuntingtonTech.好吧一会见Allright,seeyoulater.larry说记牌者通
41、常都有一个后台1.arrysaidthesecardringsoftenhaveabacker他投资启动资金whoputsupmoneyatthebeginning最后从利润里分红andthentakesapercentageofthesplit.也学他不想和人分了Maybetheguygottiredofthesplit.好吧把后台也列入嫌疑犯名单Allright,sothebackersasuspect不过我不想现在就把俱乐部排除butIdontwanttoruleoutthatclubyet,either,youknow?你赌过又怎么了So,youhadagamblingproblem.
42、只不过是你的生命更多彩罢larryItonlymakesyouthatmuchmorecolorful,youknowLarry?你要知道这不是什么嗜好Just-justsoyourealize,youknow,thiswasntsomehobby.是一种职业Thiswasacalling.是我们向这个世界Thiswasourwayofjustdemonstrating展示数学力量的一种方式totheworldthepowerOfmathematics.你说不是为r钱？Sowinningmoneyhadnothingtodowithit?不一点关系都没有Notatall.No.开始的时候不No
43、t.notinitially听着记得一位数学家叫edthorpebutlisten,rememberthatamathematiciannamedEdThorpe他60年代出版过一本书hadalreadycreatedasensationbackinthe60s叫打败庄家whenhewrotethisbookcalledbeatthedealer.后来为了对付书中的技术赌场引进r发牌机Now,inresponsetothatbook,casinosintroducedthecardshoe.实际上他们叫它“防教授器”Actually,theywerecalledperfesserstopper
44、s.有一些数学家比如我Andafewmathematicianslikemyself我们认为这是个挑战Imean,wesawitasachallenge.就像是大卫对哥利亚智慧和勇气对摄像头和高科技谋财害命DavidversusGoliath,witsandnervesversuscamerasandhightechthuggery.你说这是“谋财害命”？Whatdoyoumeanthuggery?噢我给你讲个故事Oh,listentothis.我曾在大西洋城一个私人赌场赌过IwasplayingataprivatecardclubinAtlanticcity.我赢r2万美金Iwasup$20
45、,000.两万美金？$20,000?是的是啊Yeah,yeah.然后经理还有两个赌场头头Andthemanagerandtwopitbosses-把我带到了后面theytookmeintothebackroom他们在这里揍人wheretheywerecrackingnutswithpliers他们说我就是下一个andtheytoldmethatminewerenext.但是他们没我是说你还是Buttheydidnt.Imean,yourestill.我是还是一个整块不过我的朋友们有的被砸碎手指no,Iremainwhole,butIhadfriendswhosefingerswerebroken有的被砸碎膝盖骨他们说我们是老千whohadkneecapsreconfigured.Imean,theysaidwewerecheaters.但是我们不是啊我们不过是玩得聪明些No,wewereplayingsmart.我们比今天这些孩子聪明我们至少没有
