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1、Mobilizing Private Sector Financing for Climate and Green GrowthAfrica Economic Outlook 2023EastAfricaEconomicOutlook2023MobilizingPrivateSectorFinancingforClimateandGreenGrowth2023AfricanDevelopmentBankAfricanDevelopmentBankGroupAvenueJosephAnoma01BP1387AbidjanOICotedIvoirewww.afdb.orgTheopinionsex
2、pressedandargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialviewsoftheAfricanDevelopmentBank,itsBoardsofDirectors,orthecountriestheyrepresent.Thisdocument,aswellasanydataandmapsincluded,iswithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandbo
3、undaries,andtothenameofanyterritory,city,orarea.Youmaycopy,download,orprintthismaterialforyourownuse,andyoumayincludeexcerptsfromthispublicationinyourowndocuments,presentations,blogs,websites,andteachingmaterials,aslongastheAfricanDevelopmentBankissuitablyacknowledgedasthesourceandcopyrightowner.ACK
4、NOWLEDGEMENTSTheEastAfricaEconomicOutlk2023waspreparedintheChiefEnomistandVice-PresidencyforEconomicGovernanceandKnowledgeManagementComplex,underthegeneraldirectionandsupervisionofProf.KevinC.URAMA,ChiefEconomistandVice-President,withsupportfromEricKehindeOgunleye,AmadouBoly,andAmahMarie-AudeEzaninK
5、offi.ThepreparationoftheoutlookwasledbyFerdinandBAKOUP1ActingDirector,CountryEconomicsDepartment;andHerveLOHOUES,ActingDivisionManager,ECCE.2.TheworkwascoordinatedbyMarcellinNDONG-NTAH,LeadEconomistforEastAfrica(Cluster1)andEdwardSENNOGA,LeadEconomistforEastAfrica(Cluster2),withacoreteammadeupofDunc
6、anO.OUMA,SeniorCountryEconomistforSudan;JacobODUOR,ChiefCountryEconomistforTanzania;andMartinNANDE-LENGA,SeniorMacroeconomistforKenya.Thepreparationprocessalsoreceivedinputsfrom:PaulMPUGA,ChiefCountryEnomistforEthiopia;AdmitZERIHUN,SeniorMaoenomistforEthiopia;ZerihunALEMU,ChiefCountryEconomistforKen
7、ya;YousifELTAHIR,SeniorMacroeconomistforSudan;VeraOLING,SeniorCountryEconomistforSomalia;FlavioSOARESDAGAMA,PrincipalCountryEconomistforSouthSudan;EdirisaNSEERA,SeniorCountryEconomistforEritrea;WalterODERO1PrincipalCountryEconomistforRwanda;BernisBYAMUKAMA,SeniorMacroeconomistforRwanda;PeterRASMUSSE
8、N,PrincipalCountryEconomistforUganda;TilahunTEMESGEN,ChiefRegionalEconomist(Seychelles);ProsperCHARLE,SeniorMacroeconomistforTanzania;andSaminirinaANDRIAMBELOSOA,PrincipalCountryEnomistforDjiboutiandComoros.TriciaEffeBAIDOO,TeamAssistant,CountryEconomicsDepartment,providedadministrativesupporttothep
9、rocess.PeerreviewcommentswerereceivedfromLeontineKANZIEMO,AdvisoratECNRledbyVanessaUSHIE,ActingDirector,ECNR;LawrenceTAWAH,ConsultantoftheEastAfricaRegionalTeamledbyNnennaNWABUFO,Director-General,EastAfricaRegion;HammedAMUSA1ChiefResearchEconomist;FrancisANGUYO,PrincipalResearchEconomist;BlaiseGNIMA
10、SSOUN,Consultant;AlexandreKOPOIN,PrincipalResearchEnomist;AdamonMUKASA,PrincipalResearchEconomist;AssiOKARA,Consultant;MichaelMACHOKOTO,ResearchEnomist;andDawitTESSEMA,SeniorResearchEconomistoftheMacroeconomicsPolicy,ForecastingandResearchDepartmentledbyAbdoulayeCOULIBALY,Director,Officer-in-Charge,
11、AnthonySIMPASAandJaouiFADEL,DivisionManagersoftheMacroeconomicsPolicyandDebtSustainabilityDivisionandMicroeconomicandInstitutionalImpactAssessmentDivisionrespectively;CharlesNYIRAHUKU,ChiefGasPolicyOfficer;JerryAHADJIE,ChiefMineralsOfficer;InnocentONAH,ChiefNaturalResourcesOfficeroftheAfricanNatural
12、ResourcesandInvestmentCentreledbyVanessaUSHIE,ActingDirector;FredKABANDA,DivisionManager,Renewables;andJeffreyKWESIGA,SeniorAgribusinessOfficerledbyMartinFREGENE,Director,AHAI.EugeneITUA(NaturalEcoCapital-Nigeria),EliudMOYI(KenyaInstituteofPublicPolicyResearchandAnalysis-Kenya),andEvansKITUYI(Nairob
13、i-Kenya)contributedabackgroundnotesforthereport.Prof.GunnarKOHLIN,UniversityofGothenburg;TracyTUNGE,EnergyandClimateFinance;andDr.MarkELLYNE,formerSeniorEconomistatIMFandAssociateProfessorofEnomics,UniversityofCapeTown,servedasexternalpeerreviewers.ThedatainthereportwerecompiledbytheStatisticsDepart
14、ment,ledbyLouisKOUAKOU,ActingDirect,andManager,EnomicandSocialStatisticsDivision,aswellasA.CHAOUCH,S.KARAMBIRIandH.STUPHANE.TheverofthereportisbasedonageneraldesignbyLaetitiaYattien-AmiguetandJustinKabaseleoftheBanksExternalRelationsandCommunicationsDepartment.EditingandtranslationwasdonebytheBanksL
15、anguageServicesDepartmentandYassoCreation,respectively.TABLEOFCONTENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSiii1.ISTOFFIGURESix1.istOftablesX1.ISTOFBOXESxACRONYMSxiEXECUTIVESUMMARYXiiiCHAPTER 1 :EASTAFRICAjSGROWTHPERFORMANCEANDOUTLOOK1KEYMESSAGES11.1 EastAfricasgrowthperformance41.1.1 AlthougheconomicrecoveryinAfricaslac
16、kenedin2022,EastAfrica4wasamongthecontinentshighestgrowthregions1.1.2 Onthesupplyside,theservicessectorwasthemaincontributortoreal4GDPgrowthinEastAfricabetween2015and2022andwasdrivenbyhouseholdconsumptiononthedemandside1.1.3 EastAfricasrealGDPexperiencedaslightdeclinein2022duetovarious6factors,inclu
17、dingaglobalgrowthslowdown,higherconsumerprices,adverseweatherconditions,andmountingdebt1.1.4 DespiterelativelyrobustGDPgrowth,EastAfricasaveragerealGDPper8capitagrowthratefellin2022,withonly4outof13countriesintheregionrecordinganincrease1.2 EvolutionofMacroeconomicFundamentals81.2.1 Regionalnflictan
18、dinstability,drought,risingUSinterestratesandsupply8chaindisruptionsdroveinflationandexchangeratedepreciationsinEA1.2.2 In2022,EastAfricaneconomiessufferedcurrencydepreciationdueto10risingdebtserviceandUSinterestrates1.2.3 MostofthecentralbanksintheEAregionmaintainedamixedmonetary12policystancein202
19、2astheytriedtoboostcreditaccessamidsttheCOVID-19reverywhilesimultaneouslyfightinginflationandrespondingtotheriseinUSinterestrates1.2.4 EastAfricasfiscaldeficitshrunkin2022comparedto2021owingtofiscal13consolidationefforts,improvedrevenueperformance,andreductionofexpensesassociatedwithCOVID-191.2.5 1.
20、ow-incomenationsthatareheavilyindebtedhavehistoricallyprioritized15thesustainabilityoftheirlong-termdebt1.2.6 EastAfrica,scurrentaccountdeficitcontinuedtowidenin2022dueto18anincreasingimportbillarisingfromhigherfoodandoilpricesacrosstheglobe1.2.7 EastAfricasecuredSDR4.22billionrepresenting11.5%ofAfr
21、icasand200.64%oftheglobalSDRallocationbytheIMFin20221.3 Socioeconomiceffectsoftherisingfoodandenergyprices211.3.1 Risingfoodandenergypriceshaveworsenedpovertyandinequality21intheregion1.3.2 EastAfricaregionexperiencedvarioussignificantsocio-economic23shocksin2022,includingconflict,inflation,drought,
22、grainshortages,andtheimpactofclimatechange1.3.3 Higherglobalenergyprices,globalsupplychaindisruptions,andthe23strengtheningoftheUSdollarhavecontributedtohighenergypricesinEastAfrica1.4 Medium-termeconomicoutlookandrisks251.4.1 EastAfricasgrowthisexpectedtooutpaceAfrica,sgrowthinthe25mediumterm,witht
23、heregionprojectedtohavethehighestregionalgrowthratesin2023and20241.4.2 Riskstotheoutlookandtailwinds261.4.3 Probableshort,medium,andlong-termeffectsofRussiasinvasion27ofUkraine1.5 Policyoptionstoaddressmacroeconomicandsocio-economic28challengesofrisinginflationandsubduedgrowth1.5.1 Monetary,fiscal,a
24、ndstructuralpolicymixandpolicycoordinationto28addressrisinginflation1.5.2 Optionstomitigatetighteningfinancialconditions291.5.3 Reformingsocialsafetynetsandsocialprotectionprograms,aswell29assupportingagro-alliedindustrializationCHAPTER 2PRIVATESECTORFINANCINGFORCLIMATEANDGREEN31GROWTHINEASTAFRICAKE
25、YMESSAGES312.1 Introduction-Theimperativeforgreengrowthandtheroleofprivate33sectorfinancing2.1.1 GreenGrowthinEastAfrica332.1.2 ProgresstowardsGreenGrowth342.1.3 SignificanceofPrivateSectorFinancing372.2 ThePrivateSectorFinancingLandscapeinEastAfrica382.2.1 Thefinancingneedsforclimateactionandgreeng
26、rowthinEastAfrica32.2.2 EastAfricasFinanceFlowstoClimateActionandGreenGrowth39vi22.2.3 Sourcesofprivatesectorclimatefinanceanddeploymentofinnovative42financeinstrumentsinEastAfrica2.2.4 Fosteringtheuseofinnovativeinstrumentsforprivatesectorfinancing44ofgreengrowt2.3 Theprivatesectorfinancinggapforcl
27、imateactionandgreengrowth472.3.1 ThefinancinggapforgreengrowthinEastAfrica472.3.2 Sector-levelfinancinggaps512.4 LeveragingprivatesectorfinancingforgreengrowthinEastAfrica512.4.1 Barrierstothedevelopmentofprivatesectorfinanceforclimateand51greengrowthinEastAfrica2.4.2 Ongoinginterventionstounleashpr
28、ivatesectorfinancingforgreen54growthandclimate-resilientdevelopmentinEastAfrica2.4.3 Opportunitiesforincreasingprivatesectorinvestmentsinclimateand58greengrowthsectorsinEastAfrica2.4.4 Pathwaystoleveragingexistinginvestmentopportunitiesandincreasing60privatesectorfinanceforclimateactionandgreengrowt
29、hinEastAfrica2.5 TheroleofDFIsandMDBsinmobilizingprivatesectorfinancefor66EastAfrica,sgreengrowth2.5.1 DFIsandMDBs:Catalysingdevelopmentandinternationalpublic66financeforclimateactionandgreengrowthinEastAfrica2.5.2 TheroleoftheAfricanDevelopmentBankinunlockingprivateclimate68financeinEastAfrica2.5.3
30、 CollaborationamongstDFIsandMDBstoenhanceprivatesector69climatefinance2.6 PolicyRecommendations71CHAPTER 3 aNATURALCAPITALFORCLIMATEFINANCEANDGREEN77GROWTHINEASTAFRICAKEYMESSAGES773.1 Introduction:Thecasefornaturalcapitalasakeysourceoffinancing79forclimate-compatibleandgreengrowthinEastAfric3.2 Natu
31、ralWealthofEastAfricao3.2.1 RenewablenaturalcapitalintheEAregion833.2.2 Non-renewableresourcesintheEAregion863.3 Approachestoincreasethecontributionofnaturalcapitaltofinancing87climateandgreengrowthinEastAfrica3.3.1 Opportunitiesinnon-renewableresources873.3.2 Opportunitiesinrenewableresources903.3.
32、3 Opportunitiesinresourceconservationandrestoration973.3.4 Opportunitiesfrominternationalagreements983.4 GovernanceofnaturalwealthinEastAfrica1023.4.1 NaturalresourceandrentcaptureinEastAfrica1033.4.2 Theparadoxofresourcescurseorparadoxofplenty1043.4.3 Taxonomyofrevenueleakagesinnaturalresourcetrade
33、1043.4.4 Strengtheningnaturalcapitalcontributiontogreengrowththrough1O6governance”3.4.5 Approachestodealwithillicitfinancialflowsandcorruptionm3.5 Politicaleconomyasanenablerfornaturalcapitalandprivatefinance112inEastAfrica3.6 PolicyRecommendations113References117ANNEXES122ENDNOTES139Figure 1.1Figur
34、e 1.2Figure 1.3Figure 1.4Figure 1.5Figure 1.6Figure 1.7Figure 1.8Figure 1.9Figure 1.10Figure 1.11Figure 1.12Figure 1.13Figure 1.14Figure 1.15Figure 1.16Figure 1.17Figure 1.18Figure 1.19Figure 1.20Figure 2.1Figure 2.2Figure 2.3Figure 2.4Figure 2.5 aFigure 2.5 bFigure 2.6Figure 2.7Figure 2.8Figure 2.9
35、Figure 2.10Figure 2.11Figure 2.12Figure 2.13Figure 2.14Figure 2.15Figure 3.1 aFigure 3.1Figure 3.2Figure 3.3Figure 3.41.istoffiguresRealGDPgrowth,2014-2024(%)SectorbreakdownofGDPgrowth,2015-2022SectorcontributiontonominalGDPatbasicprice(%)Demand-sidebreakdownofGDPgrowth,2015-2022GDPgrowthbycountry20
36、14-2024(%)GDPpercapitagrowth,bycountry,2014-2024(%)InflationratesinEastAfricaandotherregionsinAfricaAnnualinflationbyCountry,2021-2024(%)ExchangeRatebycountry,2014-2022FiscalBalancebyRegion,2014-2024(%ofGDP)OverallFiscalbalancebycountry,2021-2024(%ofGDP)Totalpublicdebt,2017-2023(%ofGDP)TotalExternal
37、DebtbyCountry,2021-2022(%ofGDP)TaxtoGDPRatiobyCountry,2014-2022(%ofGDP)CurrentAccountBalancebyCountry,2014-2024(%ofGDP)EastAfricanEconomiesGiniCoefficientsNumberofPeopleLivinginextremePovertyinEastAfricaChangeinunemploymentinEastAfrica2018-2022(%)ElectricityInstalledCapacity(Megawatts)inEastAfrica(2
38、010-2020)Accesstocleanfuelsandtechnologiesforcooking(%ofthepopulation)inEastAfricaGreengrowthindexinEastAfrica,2010-21DistancetotargetsofgreengrowthindicatorsinAfricaandEastAfrica,average2010-2021Cumulativeclimatefinanceneedsfortheperiod2020-2030,USDBillionEastAfricasaverageclimatefinanceneeds-2020-
39、2030,USDBillionEastAfricaclimateflows2019/20,USDMillionSectorbreakdownofprivateclimatefinanceacrossEastAfrica,average2019-20EastAfricaclimateflowsbysector2019/20,USDBillionPublicandprivatesectorsourcesofclimatefinanceinEastAfrica,USDMillionEastAfricaprivateclimatefinancebyinstrumentsandsources2019/2
40、0,USDMillionEstimatedannualprivateclimatefinancegapforselectedratesofthepotentialcontributionoftheprivatesectortotheresidualclimatefinanceneedsPrivateclimatefinancegapacrossthefiveAfricanregions(USDBillion)PrivatesectorclimatefinancinggapinEastAfricaAnnualclimatefinancegapbysectorinUSDBillionProport
41、ionofclimateblendedfinancedealsbyregionalbreakdownNumberofclimateblendedfinancetransactionsinAfrica,2019-2021EastAfricaMSMEsfinancinggap,USDBillionsEAaveragenaturalcapital(2009-2018),USDBillionEANaturalCapital(BillionsofconstantUSD2018)DistributionofvalueofnaturalcapitalinAfricabetween1995and2018byr
42、egionNaturalCapitalpercapitainEastAfrica(nstant2018USD)-selectedcountriesNaturalCapitalpercapitainEastAfrica(constant2018USD)Figure 3.4Figure 3.5Figure 3.6Figure 3.7Figure 3.8Figure 3.9Figure 3.10Figure 3.11Figure 3.12Figure 3.13ValueofnaturalcapitalinEastAfricabytypeChangesinthevalueofnaturalcapita
43、lforAfricanCountries,1995-2018ExportofmetalliferousoresandmetalscrapValueofMineralWealthinEastAfrica(BillionsofconstantUSD2018)ValueofMineralWealthinEastAfricabyCountry(BillionsofConstantUSD2018)Worldmarketvalueofmainnon-renewableresourcesintheEARegioninMillions,2021-2029TotalfishproductionintheEAre
44、gionandinAfricaValueofcapturefisheriesinEastAfrica(BillionsofConstantUSD2018)EAregionaveragegrowthrateoffishproduction,2003-2020EAuntries,averageshareofnaturalresourcerentinGDPbetween2002and20201.istoftablesTable 1.1 AfricancountriesunderHIPCInitiativeasatJanuary2023Table 1.2 Debtsustainabilityanaly
45、sis(DSA)forEastAfricaneconomiesTable 1.3 IMFSpecialDrawingRightsallocationtoEastAfrica,2022Table 2.1 GreenGrowthIndex,GDPpercapita,ClimateVulnerabilityIndex,andClimateReadinessIndexoffiveEastAfricancountries,average2010-2021Table 2.2 Innovativeinstruments/mechanismsforprivatesectorclimatefinanceTabl
46、e 2.3 EastAfricastotalclimatefinancegapsTable 2.4 Totalbankingsectorassetsas%ofGDPVsClimateFinancegapas%ofGDPTable 2.5 ExamplesofEastAfricancountriesgreengrowthandclimatepolicyandregulationsTable3.1EstimatedearningsfromtradeinfishfilletandlivefishinEAcountries20211.istofboxesBox1.1Publicsector-inter
47、governmentalorganizationcollaborationtocatalyzeprivatesectorinvestmentsinclimateandgreengrowthforclimateresilienceBox2.1Seychelles:debt-for-climateswapsBox2.3FactorsthatdeterminethelevelofprivatesectorinvestmentsinclimateactionandgreengrowthinanycountryorregionBox2.4PerformanceoftheprivatesectorinEastAfricaascomparedtoelsewhereinAfricaandbeyondBox2.5Addressingbarriersandleveragingopportunitiesformobilizingprivatesectorfinanceforclimateactionandgreengrowth.ExamplesfromotherdevelopingcountriesBox2.6Howbankscanfacilitateoneoftheinnovativefinancingmechanismsthatmobilizetheprivatesectore.g.,SDR
