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1、November2023McKhiseyQuarterlyAnewwaytodecarbonizebuildingscanloweremissionsprofitablyAnAl-informedapproachmakesitfaster,easier,andcheapertodecarbonizerealestate.Here,show.ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyBrodieBoland,DanielCramer,AlastairGreen,DaryaGuettler,FockoImhorst,andMaritaWinSlade,represent
2、ingviewsfromMcKinsey,RealEstatePractice.Realestatecompaniesareincreasinglyacceptingtheimperativetodecarbonizebuildings,buttheyfrequentlyfindthetaskdifficult,laborious,andexpensive.Ownerswithportfoliosofmanyuniquebuildingsoftenhavenocentralizedinventorythatindicatestheconditionsinsideorthetypesofequi
3、pmenttheycontain.Whafsmore,physicalenergyauditsandbuilding-by-buildingnet-zeroplansarelengthy,costly,andenjoynobenefitsofscale.Duetotheselimitations,thetraditionalapproachtodecarbonizationhascreatedawidespreadimpressionthatdecarbonizingbuildingsissignificantlyunprofitable.Butthankstoimprovementsinth
4、equantityandqualityofdataandanalyticmethods,thereisabetterapproach.Itisnowpossibletouseacombinationofdatafromsatellites,geospatialanalytics,regulations,laborandequipmentcosts,buildingcharacteristics,energy,andothersourcestorapidlycreateahigh-fidelitypictureofthecurrentstateofanindividualbuildingwith
5、outeversteppingfootinside.Byapplyingmachinelearning,Al,andphysics-basedmodeling,portfolioownerscanquicklyidentifybuildingdecarbonizationopportunities.Thisincludesthecurrenttypeandestimatedcapacityofheatingandcoolingsystems,thesite-specificpotentialforsolarorgeothermalpower,andwhereinsulationandeffic
6、iencylevelsaresubstandard.Advancedevolutionaryoptimizationalgorithmscanthendeterminetheoptimalsetofsolutionsandsequenceofactionsforeachbuilding-andtheportfolioasawholetoreachnetzeroonagiventimeline.Thesecapabilitiescanquicklygenerateasetoffinanciallyoptimizedplansforeachbuildinginaportfoliobasedonth
7、ebuilding/suniquestartingpoint,regulatoryenvironment,leasestructure,andmanyotherfactors.Theseplans-whichcanbegeneratedforafullportfolioinamatterofweeks-canincludeasetoftime-boundactions,associatedcapitalcosts,anddocumentationoftheeffectonemissionsandoperatingcosts.Forlargeportfolios,thisnovelapproac
8、htoreachingnetzerorepresentsamorethan100-foldincreaseinthepaceandscaleofdecarbonizationplanningcomparedwiththetraditionalapproachofconductingenergyauditsandnet-zerostudies.Italsoeliminatestheneedtorelyonvaguebuildingarchetypesorgeneralmarginalabatementcostcurves,whichoftenleadtopoorerplansandhigherc
9、osts.Thissystemyieldsspecific,detailed,actionableplanswithfasterabatementandbettereconomics.Bydevelopingthefullpathtonetzero,realestateorganizationscanplanaheadinsteadofreacting.Theycanintegratedecarbonizationcostinsightswhendecidingwhichbuildingstomoveintooracquire.Becausethisnewapproachcanrapidlyg
10、enerateaplanforeverybuilding,ownersandoccupierscandecidewheretoinvestlimitedcapitalandcoordinateequipmentprocurement,design,andprojectmanagementtominimizecosts.Additionally,ownerscanaggregatebuilding-levelplansacrosstheportfoliotodevelopcapitalplansandreporting.Building-Ievelplansforenergyefficiency
11、andelectrificationallowownersandoccupierstoestimateandprocurerequiredvolumesofrenewablepower,increasethepotentialtotakeadvantageofgovernmentincentives,andmakebuildingmanagersjobseasier.Thisarticlebeginsbyexploringtheimportanceofadoptingamoreefficientwaytodecarbonizebuildings.Next,Wedescribehowthisne
12、wapproachoftenmakesitpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzeroatanetpresentvalue(NPV)thatisneutraltopositive.Forexample,Wehighlightacompanythatrecentlydevelopedanet-zeropathwayplanthat,sprojectedtocostroughly$85millionlessthanatraditional-approachplanwouldhavecost.Finally,wedescribethesevenfea
13、turesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplan.Decarbonizationeffortsarechallenging,butafaster,moreeconomicalwayofaccomplishingtherealestateindustry,sdecarbonizationgoalsprovidesanopportunitytomeaningfullyaccelerateactionsrequiredtolimitglobalwarming.Buildingowners,operators,andoccupiershaveobligations
14、todecarbonizeTherealestateindustryaccountsforapproximately40percentofglobalcombustion-relatedemissions,ofwhich28percentagepointscomefrombuildingoperationsand12fromembodiedcarbonthatis,emissionsfrombuildingmaterialsandconstruction(Exhibitl).2022 Global status report for buildings and construction, Un
15、ited Nations Environment Programme, November 9, 2022.Tokeepglobalwarmingwithinapproximately1.5Candtoreachanet-zero-carbonbuildingstockby2050,theIEAestimatesdirectbuildingemissions(suchasfromonsitegasoroilboilers)willneedtobereducedby50percentandindirectemissionsbyExhibit1Thirty-sevenpercentofglobale
16、nergyemissionsarerelatedtobuildings,with28percentagepointsofthatduetobuildingoperations.Global energy and process emissions by source, 2021, %Building operations (direct)Building operations (indirect)OtherindustryTransportationOtherBuilding construction industry Other nstr ction2i8 37Source:UNEP2022
17、GlobalStatusReportforBuildingsandGxistruction60percent(forexample,throughenergyefficiencymeasuresandgriddecarbonization)by2030.2uBuilding sector emissions hit record high, but low-carbon pandemic recovery can help transform sector-U N report/United Nations Environment Programme, December 16, 2020. C
18、ompanies takir% action/1 Science Based Targets Initiative dashboard, August 2023.However,theworld/sbuildingsarenotcurrentlyontracktoachievethesegoals.SomeprogresshasbeenmadeandmoreiswithinreachRealestatecompaniesacrosstheecosystemareincreasinglymakingnet-zerocommitments?Meanwhile,regulatorsandgovern
19、ingbodiesareworkingtoimplementamixofincentivesandregulations,includingtheEuropeanCommissionsEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective,theUnitedKingdomsMinimumEnergyEfficiencyStandards,andtheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionsproposedclimatedisclosure.Addingtomomentumareinvestorswhoareincreasinglyallocati
20、ngcapitaltosupportthetransition.Progressiswithinreach.Unlikeinsomeareasthatareaddressingdecarbonization(suchasheavyindustryandshipping),ourworkinrealestatehasshownusthatthetechnologyalreadyexiststoreplacetheuseoffossilfuelsanddramaticallyimproveenergyefficiencyinmostbuildingsaroundtheglobe.Ifcompani
21、esdeploythemostefficientapproaches,alargeshareofbuildings(andanevenlargershareofbuildingportfolios)canbedecarbonizedwithneutralorpositivefinancials Sustainability grades are driving a vacancy gap in offices/ JLLr January 16r 2023.withintheexistingtechnology,policy,supplychain,andenergymarketenvironm
22、ent.Fulfillingtheindustrysobligationsfortheclimatetransitionwhilecreatingvalueispossible.However,itrequiresthatbuildingownersdothingsdifferently.BuildingdecarbonizationcanbeeconomicaltodayIndetaileddecarbonizationworkcoveringapproximately20,000buildings,morethan15megatonsofCO2equivalentannualemissio
23、ns,andvariouspropertytypesandgeographies,wehavecometoanotableconclusion:usingthenewapproach,itisoftenpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzerowithneutraltopositivereturnsoninvestmentassavingsmeetorexceedcostsovertime.Thisconclusionisvalidwithconservativeassumptions,includingnogreenpremiumsonre
24、ntorpropertyvaluation,noincrementalfutureregulationsorcarbonpricing,andnoneworsignificantlyimprovedtechnology.Byexecutingenergyefficiencyandelectrificationmeasuresforeachbuildingsfullpathtonetzeroandoptimizingrenewable-powerprocurementattheportfoliolevel,buildingownersandoccupantstypicallycanrecoupt
25、heirinvestmentsthroughenergysavings,capitalcostoptimization,andavoidanceofexistingregulatorypenalties.AdiversecohortofrealestateportfoliosusedthenewapproachtodramaticallyimprovetheNPVofreducingtheiroperationalemissionstonetzero(Exhibit2).Theseplanswereverifiedthroughtestingandrefinementwithengineers
26、andfacilitymanagersandfromtheapprovalofbusinesscasesandcapitalplansbyfinancedepartments,executives,andboards.ArealestateinvestorimprovedtheNPVofitsnet-zeropathwaybyroughly$85millionAUSrealestateinvestorwithroughly$20billioninassetsundermanagementacrossmultiplepropertytypesrecentlyusedthemodernapproa
27、chtodevelopasset-leveldecarbonizationplansformorethan750buildings.DevelopingtheinitialplanstooklessthaneightweeksandimprovedtheNPVoftherealestateinvestmenttrustsnet-zeropathwaybyabout$85million,toanear-neutralNPV(seesidebar,mAcompanysoptimizedapproach,)Thisinvestor/snet-zerojourneycouldpayforitselfd
28、uetolowerExhibit2Buildingdecarbonizationcanbeeconomicaltoday.Net present value (NPV) of portfolio pathway to net zero before and after optimization,1 illustrative, $ billion, Before optimization After optimizationNet zeroby-0.500.51.01.52.0Global retail owneroccupier with retail and warehousesPortfo
29、lio size, thousands of buildingsPlanned abatement, kilotons CO2 equivalent2040-0.2North American ownerinvestor focused on retail and warehousingNorth American ownerinvestor focused on medical offices and assisted living2040AcompanysoptimizedapproachEightwaysalargerealestateowner-investorimprovedthen
30、etpresentvalueofitspathtonetzero.Net present value improvement, real estate investor, $ millionOptimized sequencing 17Avoided stranded capital 15Avoided regulatory penalties, 12Crdinated major investments 17Updated lease agreements 16Leveraged bulk procurement 10Optimized power procurement10Captured
31、 incentives 2585 Total improvement,Anadditional$35mfllioncouldbeachievedthroughincentivesandIeaiestructureChan6工:AIsoreducestheriskoflastminutezmoreexpensiveactionsrequiredtoreacttofutureregulations.OnlyexistingregulationswereconsideredfortKepurposesofcalculatingnetpresentvalue(NPVop25 years, missed
32、 opportunities to electrify at end- of-life is likely to result in stranded capital or the need to retire equipment before the end of its useful life.)Avoided regulatory penalties. Developed plans to help ensure that fossil-fuel-powered assets are replaced before the required dates in applicable reg
33、ions.Coordinated major investments. Coordinated major renovations and equipment upgrades (eg, roof replacements, insulation upgrades, and electrification of rooftop heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning HVAC systems) to reduce installation costs by sharing labor, project management, design, cra
34、ne, and other costs.Updated lease agreements. Reviewed leases to ensure current templates allow for capital recoveries for investments that yield energy savings for tenants. This allows landlords to align costs and benefits across parties and avoid the “split-incentive problemz (For nonserviced leas
35、es, landlords may wish to consider metered- efficiency structures that can allow owners to receive a share of energy savings.)Leveraged bulk procurement. Developed plans that provide long-term visibility into all major HVAC and building envelope needs to negotiate bulk discounts and secure delivery
36、timelines for major equipment and materials.Optimized power procurement. Developed an optimized power procurement Strategytied to an electrification timeline. The goal was to reduce the risk of signing large contracts at higher costs right before net-zero target dates.Captured incentives. Created a
37、plan to apply for incentives available for net-zero-related electrification and energy efficiency measures. (These incentives were treated as an upside and were not factored into the NPV improvement estimate.)utilitybills,avoidedexistingregulatorypenalties,andreducedcapitalcosts(bycoordinatingprojec
38、tsandnegotiatingbulkprocurementpricing,forexample).Changesinthesefactors,suchasanewpriceoncarboninacertainjurisdictionorgreenpremiums,arelikelytoresultinpositiveeconomicsoverthelongrun.TraditionalapproachesaretypicallyslowerandmorecostlyTraditionally,ownershavetakenaproject-by-projectapproachacrosst
39、heirportfolios,focusingondiscreteactionswithclearstand-alonepaybackperiods,suchasinstallinghigh-efficiencyequipment,lighting,andautomatedbuildingcontrols.Marginalabatementcostcurves,orMACCcurves,havehistoricallybeenusedtoidentifyandprioritizestand-alonepaybackperiodprojectsbycalculatingtheaverageind
40、ustrycosts,orsavings,pertonofcarbonabatedforthattypeofproject.MACCshavebeenausefulprioritizationtoolinthepastandremainsoforhighlystandardizedindustrieswheresite-specificoptimizationisnotyetavailable.However,forrealestateportfolios,anoptimizedapproachthatusesdataandanalyticscanyieldsignificantlyimpro
41、vedresults.Toillustratetherelativebenefitoftheoptimizedapproach,take,forexample,abuildingfollowinganaveragecommercialbuildingMACCcurvethatwouldyieldanNPVofnegative$1.1milliontoreachnetzero.Thesamebuilding,byoptimizingthepathwayforthespecificbuildingconditionsviathenewapproach,couldyieldanNPVofpositi
42、ve$100,000toreachnetzero,representinga$1.2millionNPVimprovementcomparedwiththealternativemethod.Whyisthisthecase?Forcompanieswithanet-zerocommitment,theMACCapproachdoesnotconsidersitespecifics(suchasifthebuildingenvelopeisleaky)orinterdependenciesandcoordinationopportunitiesbetweendecarbonizationlev
43、ers.Accordingly,itoftenpushescostlyactionsintothefuture.Realestateownerscouldthenbeforcedtoimplementmoreexpensiveinitiativesatlater,nonoptimaltimes,leadingtowastedcapital(duetoissuessuchasoversizesystemsorequipmentthathastoberetiredbeforeendoflife)andlostenergysavings.Otherownershavetraditionallywor
44、kedfromthebottom-up/conductingbuilding-by-buildingenergyauditsandengineeringstudiestoexamineissuesincludinginsulation,currentheating,ventilation,andair-conditioning(HVAC)systems,andonsitesolarpotential,andthendevelopingbespokedecarbonizationplans.Thisapproachoftentakesmonthsperbuildingandcanresultin
45、aseriesofindividualreports,makingitdifficulttoaggregateplans,understandportfolio-widecosts,avoidwastedcapitalsuchasbyhavingtostripoutequipmentbeforeendoflife,complywithregulationsortargets,orfindportfolio-levelefficiencies(suchasthroughbulkprocurement).Howtogetstarted:ThesevenfeaturesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplanWhilearangeofbuildingownersandoccupantsaremakingcommitmentstoachievenetzero,manylackcomprehensiveplans.GivenwhatisnowpossiblewithevolvingdataandAlandthesignificanteffectstheycouldhaveonthepaceofbuildingdecarbonizationandprofitability,majorbuildingownersandoccupiershaveanew
