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1、PZOJZalnso-osQo=qndGFDRR W醺逊吧”Mw 6.3 Herat Earthquake Sequence in Afghanistan, October 2023JapanGov1H CXMfcHMlNl L ATpzoq alnsoosQo=qnQ-pzzo号ction practices in the affected region. Replacement st does not include fixed/mobile industry capital, transport equipment, household contents, commercial stoc
2、k contents etctoresidentialbuildings(houses),non-residentialbuildings(e.g.zeducation,health,worship,commercial,industrialassets)andinfrastructure(e.g.,transport,powerzwater,telecommunications),andtoevaluatethespatialdistributionofdamagesinordertosupportthedevelopmentofaroadmapforrecoveryandreconstru
3、ction.Thisreportsummarizesthekeyfindingsoftheassessment.Impactsofconcurrentorsecondaryhazardssuchaslandslidesweresmallandthusnotevaluatedinthisreport.Theassessmentbenefittedfromdamagedataandreportsfrompublicsources,suchastheUnitedNationsOcefortheCrdinationofHumanitarianAffairs(UNOCHA)zWorldHealthOrg
4、anization(WHO),UnitedNationsSatelliteCentre(UNOSAT)zandCopernicusSatelliteDerivedDamageAssessments,aswellasinformationfrominternationalandlocalNon-GovernmentalOrganizations(NGOs)zandMiyamotoInternational.Thisassessmentcouldpotentiallyinformtheenvisionedpost-disasterdamageandneedsassessment(PDNA)fort
5、hisevent.1.1 KeyHighlights TheOctober7to15,2023earthquakesequenceoffoureventsofthesamemagnitude(MW6.3)affected11districtsincludingZindajan,Gulran,Injel,Kushk(Rabat-e-Sangai),Guzara,Ghoryan,Karukh,Kushk-e-Kuhna,Herat,Pashtonzarghon,andKohsan;allofwhichbelongtotheHeratprovince.DistrictsofHeratandInjel
6、aloneaccountforhalfoftheaffectedresidents. ThecombinedearthquakesfromOctober7to15resultedin1,482fatalitiesand2,100injuries,directlyaffecting154,000people(UNOCHAOctober20update),upfromanearlierestimateof43,400people,whichhadalsomentionedthatnearly23%ofthesewerechildrenundertheageoffive.Around114z000i
7、ndividualsrequireurgenthumanitarianassistance. Thetotalestimatedcostofdirectphysicaldamagestobuildings(residentialandnon-residential)andinfrastructureandlivestock/agricultureisapproximatelyUSs314million(equivalenttoapproximately2.2%oftheAfghanistanGDPin2021)(Table1).Economiclossesarereportedintermso
8、fcapitaldamages,estimatedviatheGRADEmethodology.Itisimportanttonotethatthisestimatecoversonlythereplacementcostofbuildingstructures.Itdoesnotacuntforcostsofreplacementofcontentsinbothresidentialandnon-residentialstructures.Additionally,itexcludescostsrelatedtoreconstructionorbuildingbackbetter,orfur
9、therdevelopmentinthearea.Moreover,itdoesnottakeintoaccountfactorslikeproductioninterruption,incomeloss,temporaryhousing/relocationexpenses,anddemolitioncosts.Lastly,theimpactofconcrrent/secondaryhazardssuchasrainfall/landslideswerenegligibleandwerenotfactoredin. TheGRADEassessmentshowsthatthemediane
10、stimateddamagescalculatedforbothresidentialandnon-residentialbuildingstockarenearlyequal,eachamountingtoapproximatelyUSsI25million.Followingcloselyaredamagestoinfrastructureandagriculture,whichtotaledUSG64.4million.AhighlevelOfvulnerabilityoftheresidentialbuildingstockwasalsoobserved,withveryhighdam
11、ageratiosforresidentialbuildings(highestratioinZindajanat37.9%).In the assessment, the Residential sector encompasses housing, graifodder storage, and, in some cases, Ihrestock shelters and household infrastrcturenections. The Non-Residential sector includes a wide range of structures such as privat
12、e, public, and commercial buildings, schools, hospitals, ciinks/health centers, public administration buildings, mosques, agricultural warehouses/larger shelters, and industrial buildings or warehouses. R also encompasses mixed-use facilities where both mmerdal and residential activities occur. Last
13、ly, the Infrastructure* category covers transport infrastructure (e.g., roads, railways, bridges), critical power and water infrastructure (power plants, pipelines, PoWer networks, transmission lines, water structures), and ICT infrastructure (communications, cables, towers, TV, radio, etc.). Additi
14、onally, this category includes agricultural components such as the stocks of fodder, livestock, and machinery.Incontrast,thedamageratiofornon-residentialbuildingsisnotablylowerduetobetterconstructionquality(13.7%inZindajan).Similarly,estimateddamagestoinfrastructurearealsolowerandreachapproximately9
15、.5%ofthebaselineinfrastructureexposureintheZindajandistrict.Table1:Directphysicaleconomicdamagebysectoranddistrict/provinceinabsolutevalues(inUS$millions).District/ProvinceResidentialNon-ResidentialInfrastructure/TotalMedianInjel(Herat)37.338.019.294.4Herat(Herat)29.132.911.673.6Zindajan(Herat)9.19.
16、115.133.2Kushk(Herat)9.310.75.325.3Ghoryan(Herat)7.48.53.919.8Guzara(Herat)9.17.62.519.2Gulran(Herat)6.75.92.915.4Karukh(Herat)3.03.21.57.7Pashtonzarghon(Herat)3.42.60.86.7Kushk-e-Kuhna(Herat)2.11.70.54.4Kohsan(Herat)1.81.30.43.6OtherDistricts(Herat)3.42.70.66.6BadghisProvince2.81.10.34FarahProvince
17、0.10.10.10.1GhorProvince0.10.10.10,1Total124.5125.164.4314.0 Housinginearthquake-affecteddistrictssufferedseveredamageduetopredominantlynon-resilientconstruction,with90%usingvulnerablepakshaand10%khama-khashtaconstruction.Lackofstonefoundationsandplinthcoursesexacerbatedvulnerabilitytoseismicforces.
18、Structuralcollapsewasofteninstantanus,particularlyimpactingwomen,children,andtheelderlyasthefirstearthquakestruckatll:llamwhenmostmenwereoutdrs.Mp1:Spatialdistributionoftotaldirectdamagesatdistrictlevel.TotalDirectDamagebyDistrictinUS$million2-5El5-io10-25 25-50 50-75 75ICountryboundaryProvincebound
19、aryi1Districtboundary2QIntrodUCtion2.1 EventCharacteristicsandDescriptionTheHeratProvinceinWesternAfghanistanwassignificantlyaffectedbyaseriesoffourshallowearthquakes,allwiththesamemomentmagnitude(Mw)6.3zaccompaniedbyrecurringaftershockssinceOctober7,2023.TheinitialtwoMw6.3earthquakesstruckaround40k
20、mnorthwestofthecityofHeratonOctober7at11:11and11:42amlocaltime,followedbynumerousaftershocks.TwomoreMw6.3earthquakesoccurredonOctober11and15zfurtherimpactingthesameareas.Allfoureventswereshallowwithfocaldepthsof6to14kmzaccordingtotheUnitedStatesGeoIogicaISurvey(USGS).Theepicentersofthefourearthquake
21、swerelocatedwithintheHeratregion,thethird-highestseismichazardzoneinAfghanistan(Waseemetal.,2019)zwhichhadremainedrelativelyunaffectedbystrongearthquakesforanextendedperiod.TectonicallyztheHeratregionisdominatedbythe730-km-longHariRudfault.ThisfaultstretchesfromitsintersectionwiththeChamanfaultnorth
22、ofKabulandextendswestwardacrosstheGhorandHeratprovincestotheIranianborder.TheOctober2023earthquakeeventswerethedeadliestinAfghanistansincetheMay30z1998earthquakethatimpacteddistrictsinBadakhshanandTakharprovinces(killingaround4,600peopleandinjuring12,000).Since1920zsevenotherearthquakesofmagnitude6o
23、rlarger(anduptomagnitude7.3)occurredwithin250kmoftheaffectedregion,allwithinIran.HistoriceventscausingdamageintheHeratregion,andPOssibIycenteredwithintheprovince,includethosein849zl102and1364AD.Probabilisticseismichazardassessmentsfortheareahadbeenprimarilyinfluencedbysubstantialearthquakesoccurring
24、acrosstheIranianborder.ExamplesincludethedevastatingMw7.3ArdekulearthquakeonMay10z1997zthatresultedinatleast1,567fatalities,includingfivepeopleinAfghanistan,andtheMw6.6and7.1Ghaenat(Khorasan)earthquakesonNovember14and27z1979thatcausedaminimumof300CasuaItiesinIran.ForthepurposesofthisGRADEreport,acus
25、tomShakeMapwasdevelopedtobetterillustratethereportedimpactsofthefourearthquakes.Figure1depictsthecompositeeventShakeMap7completewithacolor-codedscaleindicatingtheseverityofshakinginModifiedMercalliIntensity(MMI)scalezones,rangingfromviolentetremelydamagingtosevere/verydamagingandverystrong/damagingg
26、roundmotion,rrespondingtomacroseismicintensitiesIX,VIIIzandVIIontheMMIscale,respectively.TheepicentersofthefourMw6.3earthquakesarealsoshown.Figure1:RecreatedcompositeMMI(ModifiedMercalliIntensity)ShakemapoftheOctober5to17,2023earthquakesequenceinHeratprovince(WesternAfghanistan).Itshowstheseismicshakingsspatialdistribution.Thebrown/darkorangelocationscorrespondtoseveregroundshakingintensitiesVllandVIILTheepicentersareshownasredbulletswiththeoccurrenced
