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1、Unit7TheArtofSmartGuessingBryanW.Mattimore1. Severalyearsago,interviewingcandidatesforajob,Igrewtiredofaskingwhatexperiencedoyouhave?SoIdecidedonaone-questionquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbe.Hereitis:2. YouareonayachtsailingthePacificOcean.Yournavigatorannouncesyouareoverthedeepe
2、stpoint,theMarianaTrench.Justthen,aclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poudcannonballovertheside.HowlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheOcean?3. Beforereadingon,pleasetrytosolvethisyourself-payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit.4. Didyoumakeacompletelywildguessbecause,therewasntenoug
3、hinformation?Didyougettbaggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththe*exactlyright1*answer?Ordidyouzeroinonthetwomostimportantproblems-howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater-thenhazardaguesstimate?5. Mostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguess,thinkingthattheycouldn,tbe100-pe
4、rcetright.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation.6. Whatdoesthishavetodowithbusinessorcreativity?Agreatdeal.Intherealworld,wefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullinformationdoesnotexist.Fromwhatfoodsweeattohowtoralourkids,creativepeoplemustthinkforthemseh/es.Theremaynotbethetimeorthemoneyto
5、makesureofallyourdecisions.Yourbestguesswilloftenbethebestyoucando.7. Suppose,forexample,youvebeenaskedtowriteamarketingplanforanewtelephonedevicethatwillsendyourname,company,addressandtelephonenumbertoavisualdisplayorprinteronanotherpersonsphone.Inadditiontoconventionaloutletslikemassmerchandisersa
6、ndelectronicsstores,youdliketoknowthenumberofphonestores*intheUnitedStates.Unfortunatelyzthisfigureisnotavailable,eitherfromthemarket-researchhousesorfromtheU.S.government.Whatdoyoudo?8. Onesolutionwouldbetogotoyourlocallibrary,pulloutafewphonedirectoriesfromaroundthecountry,turntotheYellowPagesands
7、tartcounting.Youcouldthenguesstimatehowmanystoresper100.0peopleineachofthecitiesyoucounted.This,bytheway,isexactlywhatamarketingconsultantIknowdidforalargetelecommunicationsclient.9. ThequestionaboutphonestoreswasanexampleofwhatscientistscallaFermproblem,namedafterNobelPrizewinningscientistEnricoFer
8、mizwhousedproblemssuchasthistoteachhisstudentshowtothinkforthemselves.AFermiproblemdoesnotcontainalltheinformationyouneedtosolveitprecisely.10. FermiissaidtohaveonceaskedhsuniversitystudentshowmanypianotunerstherewereinChicago.Toanswerthequestion,herecommendedbreakingitdownintosmaller,moremanageable
9、questions,andthenhavingthecouragetomakesomeguessesandassumptions.HowmanypeopleliveinChicago?Threemillionwouldbeareasonableestimate.Howmanypeopleperfamily?Assumeanaverageoffour.Howmanyfamiliesownpianos?Sayoneoutofthree.Thentherewereabout250,000pianosinChicago.Howoftenwouldeachbetuned?Maybeonceeveryfi
10、veyears.Thatmakes50,000tuningsayearHowmanypianoscanonetunertuneinaday?Four?Andhowmanyinayear?Assuming250workingdaysfonetunercanhandle1,000pianosyear.11. Sothere,sworkforapproximately50pianotunersinChicagowhich,asitturnsout.isreasonablyclosetotheactualnumberintheYellowPages.12. Whywasguessworksoaccur
11、ate?Thelawofaveragesispartlyresponsible.Atanypoint,yourassumptionsmaybetoohighortoolow.Butbecauseofthelawofaverages,yourmistakeswillfrequentlybalanceout.13. Heresanotherpuzzle.Youprobablyalreadyknowthatblackabsorbsthemostheat,whilewhitereflectsthemost.Butwhatabouttheothercolorsinbetween?Howuldyoufin
12、dtheanswer?Hint：t,swintertime,butnottoocold.14. BenFrankli,ssolutionwaselegant.Hesimplylaidbroadclothsamplesofvariouscolorsonthesnowonasunnymorning.Inafewhours/*hereported,*theblack,beingwarmedmostbythesun,wassunksolowastobebelowthestrokeofthesunsrays；thedarkblue,almostaslow；thelighterbluenotquiteso
13、muchasthedark;theotherCOIOrS,lessastheywerelighter,andthequitewhiteremainedonthesurfaceofthesnow,nothavingentereditatall.15. Oneofmyfavoritewguesstimatorswis,westConnecticutinventorStanMasonzwhodevelopedmicrowavecookwarespeciallydesignedtopositionfoodinthebestspotforcooking.16. Todothis,Masonneededt
14、oknowwherethemicrowaveshotspots”were-theplacewheretherayshitthefoodwiththehighestintensity.Tofindoutheputshelvesofunpoppedpopcornkernelsinthemicrowaveandwatchedtoseewhichkernelspoppedfirst.Hediscoveredapatternintheovenshottestrays:theywerentinthecomersoratthecenter,butintheshapeofamushroomcloud.17.
15、Thenhedesignedcookingdishestofitthepattern.Hehadcomeupwitharesourcefulwaytoapproximatetheanswerratherthanusingscientificallysophisticatedtestingequipment.18. Fermiwouldhaveapproved.19. Bytheway,theMarianaTrenchisaboutsixnauticalmilesdeep,andacannonballdropsatarateoftenfeetpersend.Soittookthecannonba
16、llaboutanhourtoreachthebottomofthetrench.20. Couldthisbeguessed?IfyouknowthatEarthshighestpointMountQomolangma,is29,000feet,youmightreasonablyconcludethatitslowestpointwouldbedosetothesamedistance.ThenyoumightimaginethataheavyobjectwouldtakeonesecondtofallthroughthewaterofaIOfootdeepswimmingpool.The
17、seestimateswouldbringyoucloseenoughtothecorrectanswer.ChineseTranslationofParagraphs1 .几年前,我给应聃者面试.问他们你有什么阅历？”这个问时.后来渐渐何烦了.于是.我确定做一项IR个同Sfi的冽试,从而了解这位新人是不是个推匕解决向四的刖索者.问国如下：2 .您乘坐一艘游艇.横渡太平洋.驾驶员告知您游艇到了马里亚纳海沟最深的位B1.此时，有个笨手笨脚的客人不当心把一个重达12磅的炮弹擦进海里,炮弹沉到海杼要多久？3.在您往下读之前，诃先来回答这个问题一一要特殊留意解即方法。4.您是不是因为信息不够就完全疆猜
18、呢？您是不是过于拘泥于细微环节,而没能得到“肯定正确的答案？或者说,您是不是先聚精会神在两个最老要的网Sfl上一一马里亚纳海沟有多深？炮弹在水里下沉的速度有多快？一一然后才敢做出估计？S.大多数的面试者就是胡乱猗.心想反正不行能仃分之百地精确.很少有人情愿砰险做个估算.6 .这与业务或创建性有什么关系吗？关系大着呢，在现实世界里，我们常常在没有充分信息时,须要做出确定。从吃什么到忽样嘀育孩子,有创意的人必需自己来思索.想要万无一失地做出确定，伤或许既没有时间也没有金钱.做出最佳的揣测常常是您最佳的选择.7 .譬如说,假设须要您为一种新的电话设需挨“一份销仰安排,这个设备可以将您的姓名、公司.地
19、址和电话号码发送到其他人的电话上,既可视频显示又能打印.除了像大众供货商和电子商店这些传统销售柔道,您得了解美国原委有多少家“电话商店，洪恒的是，无论从市场探讨部门还是从美国政府的官方数据，部在不到这个数字。那您怎么办？8 .有一个方法，那就是您到当地的图书馆去收出全国各地的几本电话号码簿部到黄页.然后起先数数.那么,您可以猾出在数过的每个城市里，每十万人有几家电话商店,顺便说一句，我相识的一位营销颐同为一家大型长途通讯客户正是这么做的。9 .这个关于电话商店的问题是科学家们称之为费米问题的例子.这是以诺贝尔奖获得齐恩里科费米命名的他用类似的问题教授学生独立思索的方法,费米时时并不包括您所须要
20、精确解决问题的全部信息。10 .据说,行一次费米问自己的高校生芝加哥有多少个例号调音师.要答这个问题,他提议将问应分解成比较小的、比较简埴处理的柯越.然后鼓足志气做些揣测和设想.芝加哥有多少居民？三百万是个合理的估计。狗家有几口人？假设平均四个人。有多少人家有钢导？比如说三家里有一家,那么,芝加哥大约有250,000架钢琴。每架钢琴多久询一次宫？或许五年一次.那就一年谓50,0次音.一个词音师一天可以谓几架IM号？四架？一年几架？假设有250个工作日，一个谓音师一年可以网1,000架钢琴.11 .因此,芝加哥有大约50名钢琴调音师的工作岗位果真，这与黄页上的准确数字大致相当.12 .测的结果为
21、什么那么的精确？这与平均律有关系.在某点上，您的假设或许太离或太低.但是由于平均律的修由,您的差错常会被抵消.13 .这儿还有一道智力即.很可能生已羟知道,黑颜色汲取的热敏最多，门颜色反射的热依最多。但是，两者之间的其他颜色怎么样呢？您怎么找到答案呢？提示：在冬天，不太赧冷的时候.14本i兰克林的解答简明扼要.在一个阳光明端的上午,他在雪地上铺上各种颜色的平布.“几个小时以后，”他汇报道，“这块黑色的，接受的阳光最多，下沉到阳光牌不到的他方；深蓝色的，几乎低到同样的位置：浅蓝色的到不了深监色的位置：其他颜色的,颜色越浅，下沉得越少.而这比较白的还在当地的表面,根本就没有下沉.15 .我最宠爱的
22、揣测者是独创家斯坦梅森，他独创了微波锣具，为将食品放在家谢以佳的位置上而特地设计的.16 .要做到这-点，桁森须要知道激波热点”的位置一一就是微波光线以最高强度集中到食品上的地方。为了找到答案，他把没有爆的玉米粒一层层地放在微波炉中，视察哪些玉米先爆.他发觉了微波炉最热的微波光战的分布：不是在角落上，也不是在中心，而是兄解菇云的形态.17 .于是，他就设计了符合这个分布的克调世子。他很晚公地凭借近似的方法获得了答案，而不是用困难的科学试照设务蚌出来的。18 .费米完全会赞同的.19 .顺便说一句，马里亚纳海沟大约深6海里，炮弹每秒钟下降10英尺.因此.炮弹沉到沟底衢一个小时左右。20 .这个猜得出来吗？例如您知遒地球的加高点珠程胡玛峥是29,000英尺，您或许会合珅地得出结论：最低点大的也是这个即黑.然后.您可以想象，一个重物须要1杪怦掉到10英尺深游泳池的底部.这样估计的话,迩相对到接近正确的答案.
