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1、某咨询银行业发展能否超越兼并收购USbankswillneedtolookbeyondmergersforgrowth.Betterearningswillhavetobewonfromimprovedvaluepropositionsandproductivity.KEVINP.COYNEzLENNYT.MENDONCA,ANDGREGORYWILSONTheMcKinseyQuarterly,2004Number1Theprimaryrationalebehindthewaveofmergersinthe1990soachievesubstantialeconomiesofscalebye
2、xploitingtechnologyandderegulation税snaturallyweakening.Formostlargebanks,furtherexpansionwon挟necessarilyyielddramaticscale-basedsavingsinsystemsandproduct-developmentcosts.Soalthoughmergerswillcontinuetotakeplace,opportunitiestocreatesubstantialvaluehavediminishedandrelativelyfewerdealswillpackthepu
3、nchofthe1990s.Executivesoflargebanksmustlookfornewwaystoincreaseearnings.Untilrecently,thesolutionwasfallinginterestrates,whichfueledunprecedentedprofitsfrommortgagesandcreditcards.1Butwithratesbeginningtorise,bankswillhavetolookelsewhere.Morecompellingvaluepropositionsarerequiredifbanksaretocompete
4、withthenonbanksandspecialiststhathaveflourishedinmanymarkets.Likethebestretailers,banksmustdifferentiatethemselvesbyunderstandingtheneedsoftheircustomersandgivingthosecustomersadistinctiveexperience.Banksshouldalsoboosttheirperformancetheold-fashionedway,byimprovingproductivity窠omethingthatwillbecom
5、evitalastheirpaymentsbusinesses,representingasubstantialshareofindustryprofitsandoperatingexpenses,shrinkwiththefallinguseofchecks.Tosucceedinthesetasks,banksmustinnovateintheirformats,theircustomertargeting,theirapproachtolendingandassetmanagement,theiroperations,andtheiruseofelectronicpayments.Thi
6、sagendaischallenging,anditcallsforskillsbeyondthose窠uchasidentifyingandvaluingacquisitiontargetsanddrivingintegrationShatservedexecutivessowellintherecentpast.Significantchangeslieaheadformanagersworkingtowardanewsetofperformancepriorities.THEOLDGAMEWINDSDOWNAlthoughthebankingindustry担structureandre
7、gulatoryframeworkwillpermitmoremergersinthefuture,thereducedpotentialforsynergiesmeansthatCEOswhomakedealstheirprimarystrategicfocuscouldbedisappointedbytheresults.Someobviouspairingswillrealizeworthwhilecostsavings,especiallyamongsecond-andthird-tierbanks,butformostlargeinstitutionstheopportunities
8、forconsolidationarenotwhattheywereafewyearsago.Duringthe1990s,theeconomicrationaleformergerswasindisputable.Enormousefficiencygapsbetweentheacquirerandtheacquiredoftencreatedcostandrevenuesynergiesrangingfrom30to100percentofaseller担netincome.2Newtechnologymademanyoftheseefficiencygainspossiblebyfaci
9、litatingtheconsolidationofbranches.Inaddition,theRiegle膊ealActof1994,whichallowedbankholdingcompaniestoacquirebanksinanystate,openedthedoortopairings窠uchasthosebetweenBankofAmericaandNationsBank,andNorwestandWellsFargohatpreviouslywouldhavebeendifficultorimpossible.Sosuccessfulwasthiswaveofmergersth
10、attheindustryprogressedtowardanaturalendgameinwhichahandfulofnationwidebanksbegantoemerge.Althoughcurbedbyaregulationlimitinganindividualbank担shareofUSdepositsto10percentofthetotal(which,withantitrustsafeguards,ensuredthatthousandsofcommunitybankscontinuedtothrive),thetopteninstitutionsincreasedthei
11、rshareofUSdepositsfrom27percentin1994to44percentin2002(Exhibit1).ConsolidationcontinuesShareoftotalassetsheldbyUSCommerciaIZsavingsbanksbysize,%Soiree：FDIC;SheshunoWInformettonServices;SNLFinancialButthelargerbankshavepickedmostoftheopportunitiesfromconsolidation.Today担possiblecombinationsamongthela
12、rgerinstitutionspresentfewergeographicoverlaps.Whilescaleeconomiesarealwayshelpful,mostleadingbanksarealreadybigenoughtosupportthesystems,branding,andproduct-developmentcostsofthenextfewyears.Tobesure,bankmergersarenotathingofthepast.Underthe10percentdepositceiling,thereisstillroomforthetop20or25pla
13、yerstomakesubstantialacquisitionsandfortwoorthreemovesthatwouldcreatethehandfuloftrulynationalbanksanticipatedwiththeRiegle脖ealActpassage.Moreover,manymiddle-tierregionalbankshavesurvivedandprosperedandwillprobablyconsolidatefurther.Therationalesupportingbig-bankmergersduringthe1990sthusstillapplies
14、,particularlygiventhegeographicconcentrationofmanyregionalbanks:atleasteightmiddle-tierbanksdobusinessinAlabama,Georgia,andTennessee,forexample.Yettheeconomicsmeanthatmanybigdealswillbemorelikelytoexploitreducedvaluations,opportunitiesfortransferringskills,orthepossibilityofexpandingintonewbusinesse
15、sorgeographiesthanthecostsynergiesthatoftenjustifiedsignificantpremiumsduringthe1990s.Bothmanagerialcapabilitiesandeconomiesofscopewillbedriversofwell-receiveddeals.SoM&A,whilestillalogicalpartofsomebanks?strategiesintheyearsahead,willbealessprominentsourceofvaluethanitwasintherecentpast.INPURSUITOF
16、GROWTHTheconsolidationofthe1990senabledmanyfinancialinstitutionstoexpandtheirbookvaluewithoutsignificantorganicgrowth.Thisdevelopmenthelpedlargebanks,whichfor25yearshadlostgroundinmarketaftermarkettononbanksandspecialists,suchasCharlesSchwabandMerrillLynch,thatofferedamoreattractivevaluepropositiona
17、ndbetterservice.Comparedwiththeseinnovators,bankswereslowtochange,partlybecauseinthedayswhencompetitionwasregionaltherewardsweresmalleranditoftenpaidtowaitandseewhathappenedinotherstates.Consolidationchangedtheequationbyincreasingthescaleofbanksrelativetothecostsofinnovation.Inotherindustries,partic
18、ularlyretailing,value-orientedcompanieshavespentthepasttwodecadesdevelopingnewformatsandrelievingcustomersoftheneedtobalancepriceandselection,qualityandconvenience(see“WhenVoUComDetitordeliversmoreforless)Banksshouldnowdothesamebyreinventingtheexperiencetheyofferandimprovingtheircustomerservice.Oppo
19、rtunitiescanbefoundinbothretailandwholesalebanking,andthecurrentbranch-buildingboommakesthisagoodtimetoact.REINVENTINGTHECUSTOMEREXPERIENCEBankshaveinvestedheavilyineffortstokeeptheircustomersmoresatisfied,andallofthemwantstrongrelationshipswiththeirclients.Yetsomeleadinginstitutionsarepoorlydiffere
20、ntiated.Whatshouldbigbanksdo?Ourresearchsuggeststhatthreefactorsareparticularlyimportanttocustomers.Thefirstiseaseofuse.Afewyearsago,abankcouldstandoutbyhavinganumberofpointsofaccess梳IentyofbranchesandATMsaswellasonlineservices.Butconsumersnowtaketheseamenitiesforgrantedandaremoreinterestedinwhathap
21、pensattheservicepoint:theywantbanks(likeretailerssuchasKohl担andWalgreens)togettheminandoutquickly,withexactlytheproductsandservicestheywant.Thesecondimportantfactoristheaccurateopeningandfulfillmentofaccounts,bothofwhichfrequentlygiverisetoerrors.Thethirdistheabilitytocorrecttheseerrors.Perhapssurpr
22、isingly,ourresearchshowsthatcustomersarewillingtoforgiveoccasionalmistakesifbanksfixthemquicklyandtransparently.Whenbanksdon抉，thelevelofsatisfactionplummets.Providingtherightexperiencegoeshandinhandwithredefiningrelationships.Ourresearchshowsthatcustomerswantabankthatunderstandstheirneedsandprovides
23、timely,tailoredsolutions.Manytransactionsakingoutamortgage,arrangingasmall-businessloan,buyinganautomobile相ccurinfrequently.Withoutdeepknowledgeofcustomers,banksarenomorelikelytowinsuchbusinessthanarespecialistcompetitors.Oneproblemwithcustomerrelationshipmanagementandothercross-sellingtechniques,ho
24、wever,isthat,forallthedatatheycollect,theydon抉necessarilygetatthemostimportantpiecesofinformation(suchastheageofchildrendestinedforcollegeforwhomfinancialplanningmightsoonbenecessary).Someofthisinformationstillcomesfrompersonalinteraction.Technology,thoughnosubstituteforit5canhelpbyfacilitatingtheca
25、ptureandrecordingofvitaldata,byroutingleadstotheagentsbestequippedtohelp,andbyimprovingtheperformanceofback-officeanalytics.Suchmeasuresyieldbetterresultsthandoscattershotsalescallsande-mailspam樗hichonlyannoycustomers捏ndhavehelpedsomelargebanksmakesubstantialbranchandcall-centersalesbreakthroughs.SE
26、RVINGTHEUNDERSERVEDBanks,inadditiontoupgradingtheexperiencetheyoffer,shouldsimultaneouslyreevaluatethecustomerstheyarendarenot窠erving.Underservedsegmentsexistintheretailandwholesalebusinessesofmanybanksbecauseforyearstheyhavefocusedonbiggerclients,wealthierclients,orboth.OneimportantchallengeforCEOs
27、ispersuadingtheirorganizationstolookfarenoughaheadtoallownewcustomersegmentstobecomegrowthengines.Oneareathatbankscouldconsiderischeaperretirementadvisoryservicesatthelowerendofthemass-affluentmarket.Asthebabyboomersretireandgovernmentandprivate-sectorretirementprogramscomeunderstrain,theaccumulatio
28、nofassetswillslowandinvestorswillshifttheweightingoftheirportfoliosfromequitiestofixed-incomesecurities.Banksarewellpositionedinthisrespectbecausetheyhavelongprovidedcertificatesofdepositandmoneymarketinvestmentvehicles;theyarealsoSk川edatservingthesmallercustomerssomemoneymanagersshun.Further,manype
29、opleplacemoretrustinbanksthaninWallStreetbrokeragesormutualfunds.1.essaffluentmarketsegmentsbeckon,too.TheUSFederalDepositInsuranceCorporationestimatesthat10percentoftheUSpopulationis,unbanked.YetmanyrelativelyunsophisticatedvendorsearnattractivereturnsbyfocusingontransactionsWTMwithdrawalsatsuperma
30、rkets,wiretransfers,paydayloans,tax-refundloans,checkcashing,prepaidcreditcards,used-carloans,andapplianceloans棋orwhichunbankedcustomersarewillingtopayabove-averageinterestrates.Leadingbanksthatleveragetheirscale,technology,risk-managementsystems,anddeliverychannelsshouldbeabletoprovidethisgroupwith
31、simpletransaction,savings,andcreditproductsandtoearnaprofit.3Meanwhile,thelargeandrapidlygrowingHispanicsegment,currentlynumberingabout40million,onaverageworkswithfewerfinancialintermediaries(1.5)thandoesthepopulationasawhole(2.4).Somebanks,includingBankofAmerica,Citibank,U.S.Bancorp,andWellsFargo,h
32、avebeentargetingHispanicpeople,butitisnotyetclearwhatapproacheswillwin.OPPORTUNITIESFOREXPERIMENTATIONABOUNDInwholesalebanking,thecorporatemiddlemarketmeritsattention.Despiterelativelylowrevenuesperrelationship,themarketasawholerepresentsa$20billionpoolofpotentialprofitandisgrowingby8percentayearwic
33、etherateforlendingtolargecorporations.Overthenextfewyears,bigvolumesofthisbusinessmaybeupforgrabsbecauseaproposedBaselIlprovisionrequirescertainbankstoholdsubstantiallymoreregulatorycapitalagainstloanstocompanieswithlowerriskratings(seeThebusinesscaseforBaselII,tobepublishedonthissiteinlateJanuary20
34、04).BOOSTINGPRODUCTIVITYTofinancethesecustomerinitiatives,banksmustwringmorevaluefromoperations.Opportunitiesremaintogeneraterevenueandcutcostsbyimprovingproductivity.Thepaymentsbusiness,whichThepaymentsbusinessisthe*stealthindustryofcommercialbanking-butanexpensiveonerepresentsthebulkoftransactions
35、andisalsochangingrapidly,deservesspecialexamination.UPHEAVALINPAYMENTSThepaymentsbusiness,accountingfor25to40percentoftheprofitsofmostinstitutions,iscommercialbanking抵,stealthindustry.Butthebusinessisalsoanexpensiveone,withbanksspending$50billionayearservicingconsumerandcorporateaccountsthroughagrow
36、ingarrayofchannels(branches,ATMs,telephones,theInternet5andpoint-of-saledevices)andofpaymentinstruments(checks,cards,electronicfundtransfers,bill-paymentservices,andaccount-to-accounttransfers).Asthevarietyofchannels,transactions,andpaymenttypesmultiplied,sotoodidtheunderlyingcostsandcomplexitiesofs
37、ervicingdirect-depositaccounts.Theeconomicsofpaymentsareunderpressureonseveralfronts.Customers7cashbalanceshavemigratedtohigher-yielding(andso,forbanks,lower-margin)savingsandinvestmentvehicles.Rock-bottominterestrateshavecompressedbanks?spreadsfromlending.Finally,thefeeincomefromdemand-depositaccou
38、ntshascomeunderattack.Debitcardfeesfellbyathirdfollowingthesuccessofarecentclass-actionlawsuitbroughtbyretailmerchantsagainstVisaandMasterCard,andinseveralstatesoverdraftandotheraccount-basedfeeshaveattractedregulatoryscrutiny.AglimmerofhopeisheldoutbytheCheck21legislationpassedinOctober2003.Thenumb
39、erofcheckswrittenintheUnitedStatespeakedinthemid-1990sandhasdeclinedby2to3percentayearaselectronicpaymentshavesurged.Evenso5peopleintheUnitedStatesstillwrite40billionchecksayear.Check21willallowbankstoprovidecheckimageswiththeircustomers?monthlystatementsratherthansortandreturntheactualchecks.Trunca
40、tingtheprocessinthiswaycouldknock$2billionto$3billionofftheestimatedannualcost?8billion相fprocessingchecks.NewchallengesaccompanytheopportunitiescreatedbyCheck21.Electronicmigrationwillalterthestrategicdynamicsinpaymentsbymakingtoday担valuedriversinchecks1eographicproximity,efficientmanuallabor,andthe
41、abilitytomaximizeclearingbalances税ncreasinglyirrelevant.Furthermore,theunitcostsofprocessingpapercheckswillescalaterapidlyastheelectronicshiftprogresses,leavingbehindlargefixedinfrastructurecosts.Check21maybeatwo-edgedswordformanybanks;capitalizingonitsproductivitybenefitswillbevitalforallofthem.The
42、shifttoelectronicpaymentscreatesopportunitiesforbankstodevelopnewpaymentpropositionswitheconomicssuperiortothoseofcashandchecks.Low-balancecustomers,traditionallyunprofitabletoserve,mightlookmoreattractiveiftheircashandcheckusagecouldbemovedtodebitorcreditcardsortoATMs.Aswithcreditcards,competitorsw
43、illprobablydevelopnewproductsandservices,fromprepaidcardsfortheunbankedtosophisticatedpayables-processingalgorithmsforlargecorporations.BROADERPRODUCTIVITYOPPORTUNITIESIntheabsenceof,big-bangopportunitiessuchasback-officeautomation,morebanksW川needtopursueToyota-Styleleantechniquesthathaveenabledpion
44、eeringinstitutionstoenhancetheirservicequalityandefficiencyratiossimultaneously.Workingboththenumeratorandthedenominatoroftheefficiencyratio,bankscouldimprovetheperformanceoftheiroperationsmorequicklythantheyhaveinrecentyears(Exhibit2).Initialimprovementswouldbeontheorderof2to5percent,withthepotenti
45、alformoreifsystemswerefullydeveloped.-O。1U-1_lulO255075100Sbarofindustryrevenues,%Benksin19MrIrBCIK%=S43biNnBenktlnZOOSAC1100%=S331biltaml,CannonOPefaIiadficmmeasured3inX*tnomn(er*SlWnW-netHrtemtincmnonmteetincomeISource:SNl11MKUt.McKvttyarumProductivitygainscanalsobehadfromreducingthenumberofwasted
46、customerleads,refiningtreasurymanagementandcustodycontrols,andspeedinguptheprocessingofapplicationsforcreditorinsurance.Tocapturesuchgains,banksmustcontinuetostriketherightbalancebetweencostefficiencyandrevenuegenerationintheirbranchesandcallcenters.Afewcompanies,suchasthemaincreditcardplayers,aremo
47、vingintherightdirection,butit担noteasy.Keychallengesincluderedefiningtherolesoffrontlinesales,service,andsupervisoryjobsandredesigningprocessesandthesupportinginfrastructuresothatdecisionscanbemadeonthespot.Theseopportunitiesarenotnew.Butrealizingvaluefromthemhasbeenextremelydifficultbecausethecostba
48、seofmostbanksishighlyfragmented,whichmakesleveragingimprovementsacrosstheorganizationtrickyandtime-consuming.Broad-basedprogressrequireschangesintheoutlookandbehaviorofemployeesatalllevels.-Manyprogramshavesofarfailedtorealizethiskindofchangebecausethebanksadoptingthemhaven抉createdpressuretoperforma
49、talllevels,addressedcapabilitiesinareassuchascapacitymanagement,orchangedthewayfrontlinemanagersandemployeesarehired,motivated,andrewarded.Productivityinitiativesinteractinimportantwayswithbanks?offshoringefforts.ThewagesavingsmadepossiblebymovingjobstocountrieslikeIndiaaresoattractivethatoffshoringisacompetitivenecessity;overtime,manyfinancialinstitutionswilloffshore20to40percentoftheircostbase,therebysavingasmuchas1
