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1、NOVEMBER2021TheManufacturer9sDilemmaReshoringandResiliencyinaPandemicWorldAUTHORSWilliamReinschEmilyBensonJasmineLimAnthonyHokayemSarahMortensenAReportoftheCSISSchollChairinInternationalBusinessCENTERFORSTRATEGICftINTERNATIONALSTUDIESNOVEMBER2021TheManufacturerDilemmaReshoringandResiliencyinaPandemi
2、cWorldAUTHORSWilliamReinschEmilyBensonJasmineLimAnthonyHokayemSarahMortensenCSISAReportoftheCSISSchollChairinInternationalBusinessCENTERFORSTRATEGICaINTERNATIONALSTUDIESAboutCSISTheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)isabipartisan,nonprofitpolicyresearchorganizationdedicatedtoadvancingpra
3、cticalideastoaddresstheworld,sgreatestchallenges.ThomasJ.PritzkerwasnamedchairmanoftheCSlSBoardofTrusteesin2015,succeedingformerU.S.senatorSamNunn(D-GA),Foundedin1962,CSISisledbyJohnJ.Hamre,whohasservedaspresidentandchiefexecutiveofficersince2000.CSIS,spurposeistodefinethefutureofnationalsecurity.We
4、areguidedbyadistinctsetofvaluesnonpartisanship,independentthought,innovativethinking,cross-disciplinaryscholarship,integrityandprofessionalism,andtalentdevelopment.CSISsvaluesworkinconcerttowardthegoalofmakingreal-worldimpact.CSISscholarsbringtheirpolicyexpertise,judgment,androbustnetworkstotheirres
5、earch,analysis,andrecommendations.Weorganizeconferences,publish,lecture,andmakemediaappearancesthataimtoincreasetheknowledge,awareness,andsalienceofpolicyissueswithrelevantstakeholdersandtheinterestedpublic.CSIShasimpactwhenourresearchhelpstoinformthedecisionmakingofkeypolicymakersandthethinkingofke
6、yinfluencers.Weworktowardavisionofasaferandmoreprosperousworld.CSISdoesnottakespecificpolicypositions;accordingly,allviewsexpressedhereinshouldbeunderstoodtobesolelythoseoftheauthor(s).2021bytheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,llrightsreserved.AcknowledgmentsTheauthorswouldliketothankSeanAi
7、Tieta-KennaandWillO,Neil,formerresearchinternswiththeSchollChair,fortheirresearchsupportandcontributions.ThisreportwasfundedbygeneroussupportfromtheAlcoaFoundation.CenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies1616RhodeIslandAvenue,NWWashington,D.C.20036202-887-02001www.csis.orgContentsIntroduction11Resili
8、ency,Reshoring,andNearshoring32IndustryPrimers:TransformersandHVACs6VJhatAreTransformers?6WhatAreHVACs?83IndustrySupplyChains10Transformers10HVACs114Covid-19SupplyChainChallenges13LaborShortages13ReducedAccesstoConsumers14RisingPricesandShortagesofSteel,Copper,andOtherRawMaterials15TransportationCom
9、plicationsandBottlenecks16ChangingDemand165GovernmentApproachesandPolicies18CleanEnergyInitiatives:ExecutiveBranch18LegislativeBranch19NationalSecurityandTradeBarriers20Conclusion23AbouttheAuthors26IntroductionromtheRustBelttotheWhiteHouse,policymakers,manufacturers,andconsumersaredebatingthemeritso
10、freshoring,nearshoring,andbuildingmoreresilientsupplychains.)ThepreviousadministrationmaintainedasharpfocusonstrengtheningmanufacturingintheUnitedStatesthroughtraderemedies,tariffprotection,andreshoringmeasures.PresidentJoeBidenhaslargelyfollowedsuit,maintainingmanyofthepreviousadministrationstradep
11、olicieswhileoutlininghisownadministrationscommitmentto“BuyAmeriCarrandbuildmoreresilientsupplychains.2IntheyearsbetweenWorldWarIandWorldWarII,theriseofnationalistideologiesandcrushingeconomicconditionsusheredinaneraoftradeprotectionism.Intheinterwaryears,tradeliberalizationthathadacceleratedthrough1
12、913essentiallyhalted,dismantlingpreviouslyestablishedtradingnetworks.However,theseprotectionistdynamicsshiftedwiththesigningoftheReciprocalTradeActof1934.whichinstitutionalizedtariffreductionreforms.?Then,the1944BrettonWoodsAgreementattheendofWorldWarIIlaidthegroundworkforthepostwareconomicworldthro
13、ughtheestablishmentoftheWorldBank,theInternationalMonetaryFund,andeventuallytheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTradeanditssuccessororganization,theWorldTradeOrganization,whichwasintendedtosen,eastheglobalpromoteroftradeliberalization.Duringthistime,theworldtradingsystemwitnessedareductionintariffsandapu
14、shtowardregionalandmultilateraltradeagreements.Withnewlyrealizedaccesstoforeignmarkets,multinationalfirms-especiallythoseinthemanufacturingsector-initiatedatrendofoffshoring,whichallowedfirmstopursuelowercostsabroadandachievehigherproductivitygains.Astradeliberalizationexpanded,companiesbegantoreexa
15、minetheirproductionprocessesanddisaggregatetheminordertotakeadvantageoflowerrelativepricesandhighproductivityabroadinabidtoreducetheoverallcostsofgoodsproduction.Significantdeclinesintransportationandcommunicationcostswereinstrumentalinthisdevelopment.Theyenabledcompaniestodevelopsupplychainsthattak
16、eadvantageoflowcostsaroundtheworldtoproducepartsandcomponentsindifferentlocationsandthenassembletheminathirdlocation.Internationalcompanies,particularlywithinthemanufacturingsector,benefittedfromdecreasedproductioncostsandcheaperlabor,butnotwithoutacosttoU.S.workers.Followinga30-yeartrendofoffshorin
17、g,somefirmshavebegunrenationalizingtheirproductionchains,particularlysincethe2008recession.Meanwhile,theeffectsofglobalizationonmanufacturingcapacityandtheU.S.tradedeficithavegrowntoplayamoreprominentroleinpublicdiscourse.TheCovid-19pandemiccauseduniquesupplychainchallengesanddemandshocksfornearlyev
18、eryindustry.Quarantinesandborderclosuresconstrictedimportsfromforeignproducers,andmanufacturersfacedseverematerialandlaborshortages,lengthymanufacturingdelays,anddecreasesinconsumerdemand.Asthisdauntingconfluenceoffactorswasexposed,policymakersbegantosoundalarmbellsandwarnthatexistingsupplychainswou
19、ldbeunabletohandlethebottlenecksinproduction.Inresponse,twodifferentapproachestosupplychainshaveemerged:resiliencyandreshoringSupplychainresiliencyisdefinedasthecapacityforasupplychaintoresistandrespondtodisruptions,minimizingthetimeneededtorecoveroperationalcapacity.Inotherwords,resiliencymeasuresa
20、supplychainsabilitytoreboundtoitspre-disruptionproductioncapacity.Reshoring,ontheotherhand,occurswhensuppliersreducetheirdependenceonglobalsupplychainsbymovingproductionwithindomesticborders.Thesepandemic-induceddynamicshavecomplicatedindustriesresponsestosupplychainissues.Shouldsupplychainsbebuiltf
21、orresiliencyorefficiency?Whatarethetrade-offsbetweenthetwoapproaches?Howarefirmsapproachingsupplychains?Toanswerthesequestions,thisreportconductstwocasestudiesinincreasinglycriticalindustries:transformersandheating,ventilation,andcoolingsystems(HVACs).Thisreportassesseshowtheseindustrieshavebeenaffe
22、ctedbythepandemicandhowtheyhaveresponded,particularlywhetherfirmshavechosentoembraceresiliencyorpursuereshoring.Thisresearchisinformedbyinterviewswithfirmsdirectlyimpactedbythepandemicandpresentsbroaderthemesintheongoingdebateoverhowtorethinksupplychainsinapandemicworld.Resiliency,Reshoring9andNears
23、horingAsglobalvaluechainsinthemanufacturingsectorbecameincreasinglycomplex,debatesbegantoariseoverwhetherfirmsshouldprioritizeresiliencyorefficiency.ThisdebateintensifiedastheCovid-19pandemicupendedsupplychainsacrossthemanufacturingsector,highlightingclearvulnerabilitiesofmanyvitalindustries.Now,ina
24、post-pandemicera.firmsmustgrapplewithdifferingapproachestosupplychainmanagement,mostnotablyemployingstrategiesofresilience,reshoring,ornearshoring.DEFININGASTRATEGYOFRESILIENCEResiliencyisashort-termeffortwithinafirmscontroltorespondtosuddenshocks.Dependingoninternalanalysesorstresstests,firmscandet
25、erminethemostefficientwaytoinvesttheirresources.EXAMPLEDuringthepandemic,theHVACindustryadopteddigitaltools-includingtheuseofartificialintelligence(AI)technologytofacilitateconsumeraccesstoproducts.BENEFITSDRAWBACKSThis targeted approach gives firms the ability to reduce initial costs while retainin
26、g high output and worker capabilities in the near term. Proper resilience development involves redundancy that can provide different avenues to help mitigate sudden shocks, whether through increasing the number of suppliers, utilizing different risk assessments, or diversifying transportation method
27、s.The question remains whether resiliency can be utilized as a long-term strategy without sacrificing overall supply chain efficiency.s By sacrificing efficiency, the lower initial implementation cost could result in a long-term increase in costs.DEFININGASTRATEGYOFRESHORINGReshoringreferstoeffortsb
28、yfirmstorenationalizetheirproductionchainsanddecreasetheirrelianceofforeignmanufacturingcapabilities.EXAMPLEIn2014,UniversalPlasticsreshoredproductionfromChinatotheUnitedStatesduetofactorsincludingproductqualityandproductdifferentiationinChina.6OnereasonthatreshoringtotheUnitedStatesbecamemoreattrac
29、tiveforthecompanywasthatitsU.S.businessbecamemoreefficientandcost-effectiveduetothedeploymentofnewtechnologyandautomation.BENEFITSWhile reshoring supply chains involves a larger upfront investment from companies, the move eliminates dependencies on foreign producers, reducing certain risks while inc
30、reasing the reliance on domestic supply chains. As a result, transportation costs are reduced as manufacturing moves closer to domestic consumers. Additionally, as the pandem-ic underscores, reshoring can mitigate supply chain disruptions resulting from government actions, such as lockdown or quaran
31、tine directives that constrain labor in foreign countries or border closures that prevent the import of necessary inputs.Reshoring can complicate access to necessary manufacturing inputs, especially raw materials. For example, within the United States, only six aluminum producers remain in operation
32、. As a result, industries that rely on significant aluminum inputs, such as the HVAC industry, may struggle to oper-ate under and adapt to the United States limited aluminum production capacity.? Furthermore, reshoring is often more expensive for firms due to higher costs of both labor and material
33、inputs.DRAWBACKSDEFININGASTRATEGYOFNEARSHORINGNearshoringisaderivativeofoffshoringwherebusinessoperationsarerelocatedtoanearbycountry.Thecountrychosendependsoneitheritsproximitytothebusinesssconsumermarket(e.g.,openingafactoryinGermanytosellgoodstoGermanconsumers)oritsparticipationwithinaregionalagr
34、eement(e.g.,shiftingproductiontoMexicoduetoitscheaperlaborforceandparticipationintheU.S.-Mexico-CanadaAgreement).EXAMPLELosAngeles-basedMotorcarPartsofAmericainvestedmorethan$30millioninaMexicanproductionfacilitytomovemanufacturingcapacityfromChinaandmaintainasupplychainclosertoitsconsumersintheUnit
35、edStates.BENEFITSDRAWBACKSNearshoringoffersamorecost-effectivemethodforsupplychainmanagementbecauseofthelowertransportationfees.Italsoofferssomeprotectionfromcontentrequirementpoliciesandothersupplychaininfrastructureproblemscurrentlycausingglob-albottlenecks.Neighboringcountriesmaynotpossessthesame
36、manufacturingbasesandinvestmentenviron-mentsastheoriginalforeigndestination,therebyincreasingcostsordecreasingoutputforfirms.Forinstance,U.S.companiesseekingtorelocatefromChinatoMexicomustgrapplewithMexicosman-ufacturinglimitationsanduncertaininvestmentconditions.Thesethreegeneralstrategiesrepresent
37、differentmethodsfirmscanemploytomitigatetheconstrictingeffectsofshocksonsupplychains.Toassesstheviabilityofthesestrategies,itisimportanttostudywhatactionscompanieshavetakenduringtheglobalpandemic.ThefollowingsectionsaddressthechoicesofthetransformerandHVACindustriestoeitherembraceresiliencyorpursuer
38、eshoring-ortomeetinthemiddlewithnearshoring.Overall,firmsinterviewedforthisproject,bothintheHVACandtransformerindustries,rejectedcallstoreshoreduetocostintensityandlackoffeasibility,preferringstrategiesofresiliencyandnearshoringinstead.Firmsinterviewedforthisproject,bothintheHVACandtransformerindust
39、ries,rejectedcallstoreshoreduetocostintensityandlackoffeasibility.IndustryPrimersTransformersandHVACsWhatAreTransformers?PIowerplantgeneratorsproducepowerbyconvertingmechanicalenergy(usuallyaturbinepoweredbysteamheatedfromburningfossilfuels)intoelectricity.Theelectricityisthentransmittedfromthepower
40、plantdowntransmissionlinesintothegrid.Locatedalongtheselinesaresubstations(whichcontainmaintenanceequipmentandcircuitbreakers)andtransformers.TransformersincreaseordecreasetheoutputtedvoltageleveloftheelectricalcurrenttomatchthevoltageneededfortheCirCUitryofelectricalequipmentorsystems.Step-uptransf
41、ormersincreasethevoltageofalternatingcurrent(AC)immediatelyafterelectricitygenerationatapowerplant.Thistechnologyisnecessarytoattainahighvoltagetominimizeenergylossovermanymilesofpowerlinesduringpowertransmission.Step-uptransformerscanincreasevoltagetoseveralhundredthousandvolts.Step-downtransformer
42、s,ontheotherhand,decreasethevoltageoftheACtovoltagelevelsusablebyhomesandbusinesses(usually120to720volts).Becauselow-voltcurrentismoresusceptibletoenergylossalongtransmissionlines,step-downtransformersarcusuallylocatedclosetotheend-usepointofelectricity.Source:PaulPeterUroneetal.,Transformers,OpenSt
43、axCNX,lastupdatedJuly11,2021,https:/phys.libretexts.Org/go/page/2713.ThisworkislicensedbyOpenStaxUniversityPhysicsunderaCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense(by4.0).Source:Uroneetal.,Transformers,OpenStaxCNX.ThisworkislicensedbyOpenStaxUniversityPhysicsunderaCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense(by4.0).Tran
44、sformersconsistofasteelcoreandtwocoilsofwire:theprimarywindingandthesecondarywinding.Theprimarywindingisthesideofthetransformerthattakespower,andthesecondarywindingisthesidethatdeliverspower.Step-uptransformershavemoredenselywoundsecondarywinding,andtheoppositeistrueforstep-downtransformers.Thesteel
45、corecanconsistofGrainOrientedElectricalSteels(GOES),whichareiron-siIiconsteelalloysthatprovidethelowcorelossandhighpermeabilityrequiredforefficientandeconomicalelectricaltransformers(thisessentiallylowersresistanceforthecurrenttoflow).Energyconservationiscritical,andGOESaredesignedtominimizeheatloss
46、atthecore.GOESareusedprimarilytoPrOdUCelaminatedcoresforlargeandmedium-sizedpowertransformers,whichhandlehigh-voltagepowerfromgenerationtothecentralsourceofdistribution,anddistributiontransformers,whichhandlelower-voltagepowerfromcentralpointstothepointsofusage.Transformersareoneofthemostcriticalcom
47、ponentsindeliveringelectricitytocustomers,withoutwhichtheU.S.electricgridwouldnotfunction.*)In2019,theglobalpowertransformermarketsizewasvaluedat$27.7billion,anditisexpectedtogrowby7.9percentfrom2020to2027andreach$50.8billionby2027.Thisgrowthisattributedtoincreasingelectricitydemandsandtheupdatingof
48、agingtransmissionanddistributionsystems.TheU.S.EnergyInformationAgencyforecaststhatelectricitydemandwillincreaseby2.8percentin2021andby1.0percentin2022.Atthesametime,thenationselectricgridisrapidlyaging.AnalystsnotethattheaverageageofatransformerontheU.S.electricgridis35yearsneartheendofitslifespan.
49、12WiththecurrentpushintheWhiteHouseandamongcongressionalDemocratstowardcleanenergyinfrastructure,someagingtransformersarclikelytobereplacedbyenergy-efficientones,advancingtheagendaforcleanelectricityinfrastructure,WhiletransformersmaintainacentralfunctionintheU.S.electricgrid,theirsupplychaindynamicsremaincom
