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1、2017年9月narratorInSeptemberof2017,飓风玛利亚席卷过加勒比海HurricaneMariachurnedacrosstheCaribbean在波多黎各登陆andslammedintoPuertoRico.thunderrumbling那场飓风听起来像野兽woman1Thathurricaneactuallysoundedlikeabeast.一头低嚎着、正在猎食中的野兽1.ikeapreying,growlingbeast将一切毁之殆尽destroyingeverything.碰到那样的境况实在太可怕了你无能为力woman2Itshorribletobeinthat
2、situationwhenyoucantdoanything.当时我亲眼看着自己二十年来的心血woman3Isawmyentire20yearsofwork毁于一旦destroyed.描述一下过去24小时是什么感觉reporterTellmewhatthelast24hourshavebeenlike.就像地狱一般太可怕了Hell.Thishasjustbeenhorrible.Horrible.我这辈子从没有过那样的经历Ihadneverlivedsomethinglikethatbeforeeverinmylife,我希望我不会再经历一次andIhopeIwontlivethroughit
3、again.飓风过去两天后我来到圣胡安manIgotintoSanJuantwodaysafterthehurricanepassed.我在那里的整个期间那里没有水没有电Therewasnowater,noelectricity,fortheentiretimeIwasthere.我能以亲身体验告诉你Icantellyoufirsthand经历场让你恐惧thatgoingthroughahurricane,害怕失去家园或所爱之人的飓风whereyoureafraidforyourhome,oryou,reafraidforyourlovedones,会留下伤疤余生都刻印在你的灵魂里thatle
4、avesamarkonyourspiritfortherestofyourlife.如今越来越多的人生活在飓风的轨道中narratorMoreandmorepeoplearelivinginthepathOfhurricanes,而温室效应有可能会增强热带风暴的破坏性andawarmingplanetwilllikelymakethesestormsmoredestructive.即便我们可能看不到更多飓风Eventhoughwemaynotnecessarilyseemorehurricanes,将来我们看到的飓风theoneswedoseewillprobablybe其危险性和破坏性可能会
5、大大加强muchmoredangerousandmuchmoredamaging.那么面对这种灾难性的力量我们能做些什么narratorSo,whatcanwedotomakeourcommunitiessafer来加强社区的安全？inthefaceofthiscataclysmicpower?我们能学会抵御这些即将到来的风暴吗？CanWelearntowithstandtheoncomingstorms?处于视野正中♥央♥的大风暴man1Bigstormrightinthecenterofthefieldofview.伴随飓风而来的有狂风man2Hurricane
6、sareaccompaniedbyviolent,destructivewinds,暴雨和巨浪heavyrains,andhightides.在咆哮的热带风暴面前船只孤立无援man3Shipsarehelplessbeforethetyphoonsfury.新奥尔良西部的人们目前还是幸运的man4ThosewestofNewOrleansaresofarlucky,但对许多人来说butformanypeople,thememoriesofthebigstorms六十年代的那些大型风暴还记忆犹新ofthe60sarealltooreal.我今年六十一岁man5m61yearsold,那些飓风很可
7、怕youknowwhatImean,soallofthemarereallyscary,youknow.应该被认真对待Theyoughttobetakenseriously.剧名：飓风playfulmusic1959年冷战局势升温ElizondoIn1959,withtheColdWarsimmering,数百名科学家齐聚旧金山hundredsofscientistsgatheredinSanFrancisco尝试解答一个简单的问题totryandanswerasimplequestion.“核武器能发挥什么好作用吗？”Isntthereanythingnicewecandowithallth
8、esenuclearweapons?他们有很多想法Theyhadabunchofideas.把一连串的爆♥炸♥坑变成一条行船运河Turningaseriesofblastcratersintoashippingcanal.利用核弹的热能来蒸储海水Harnessingabombsheattodistillseawater.还有在飓风眼里引爆一颗核弹Anddetonatinganukeintheeyeofahurricane尝试改变风暴的轨道totryandderailthestorm.explosion这个想法一直很诱人Thatideahasremainedincre
9、diblytempting,诱人到一家研究飓风的美国机构somuchsotheUSagencythatstudieshurricanes在他们的常见问题页而上回答了这个话题addressestheissueontheirFAQpage.（这不是个好主意）一个大问题是我们没有足够大的炸♥弹♥Amajorproblemis,wejustdonthaveabombthatisbigenough.这是一段罕见镜头里面是人类引爆过的最具威力的核弹Thisisrarefootageofthemostpowerfulnukeeverdetonated,苏联制♥造&h
10、earts;的沙皇炸♥弹♥theSovietUnionsTsarBomba.manspeakingRussian那是50兆吨♥的爆♥炸♥威力ElizondoItwasa50-megatonblast,释放的能量让人目瞪口呆ajaw-droppingreleaseofenergy.但完全形成的飓风Butafully-developedhurricane每数小时都可以释放出与其同等的能量canunleashthatamountofenergyeverycouplehours.如果往飓风眼投核弹最有可能的结果会是Ifyounuke
11、dahurricane,themostlikelyresultwouldbe正常飓风变成带辐射的飓风aradioactivehurricane.热带风暴峨力巨大Thesestormsaresopowerful是因为它们完全不同的运作规模becausetheyreworkingonacompletelydifferentscale.为其供能的是广阔无边的海洋Theyrefueledbyenormousswathsofocean和地球自转andthespinningoftheplanet.太阳光线加热海水海水蒸发水蒸气上升Thesun,sraysheatwater,whichevaporatesa
12、ndrises,形成层层叠叠的雷雨云下降到接近海平面formingtoweringthunderclouds,and,downnearthesurface,形成一团低气压apocketoflowpressure.周围空气涌入来填补这个空缺Surroundingairrushesintofillthisvoid,但由于柯氏效应而偏离轨道butitsdeflectedoffcoursebyTheCoriolis.地球表面长距离移♥动♥的气流似乎会弯曲AirmovinglargedistancesoverEarth,ssurfaceappearstocurve.这让整个气
13、流旋转起来Thatmakesthewholesystemspin,北半球逆时针旋转counterclockwiseinthenorthernhemisphere,南半球顺时针旋转clockwiseinthesouthern.赤道附近的柯氏效应太过微弱TheCoriolisistooweakneartheequator,而两极附近的海水过于冰冷andthewater,stoocoldnearthepoles.但在这个区域条件刚刚好Butinthiszone,conditionsarejustright.每年有超过一亿人受到气旋影响Morethan100millionpeopleareaffect
14、edbycycloneseachyear,地球上超过五分之一的人andmorethanoneinfivepeopleonEarth生活在气旋的潜在轨道上areintheirpotentialpath.严格来说这些都是热带气旋Technically,thesearealltropicalcyclones,但在这里它们被称为台风butheretheyreknownastyphoons,这里叫它飓风andherehurricanes.飓风的常见路径之一就是横穿加勒比海OneoftheirmorecommonroutescutsthroughtheCaribbean,每几年波多黎各都会受到飓风袭击an
15、dPuertoRicogetshiteveryseveralyears.但这不代表它做好了迎接这个超强飓风的准备Butthatdoesn,tmeanitwasreadyforthebigone.这是2017年9月ThisisSeptember,2017.好几个飓风正在逼近加勒比海AcoupleOfhurricanesaremenacingtheCaribbean,而玛利亚当时只是刚刚离开非洲海岸的butMariawasjustagentleeddy气流长河中一个温和气旋intheriverofairspillingofftheAfricanCoast.雷雨云形成开始旋转Stormcloudsf
16、ormedandstartedspinning,然后飓风眼出现中♥央♥是可怕的寂静anditseyeemerged,acenterofeeriecalm周围环绕着速度像高铁样快的狂风surroundedbywindsasfastasahigh-speedtrain.时速高达大约280公里Theyreached173milesanhour,让玛利亚一跃成为h级飓风makingMariaaCategory5storm.这是五级飓风看路线似乎ItwasCategory5,andithadaroutethatseemedlike要在波多黎各登陆itwasgoingtohit
17、PuertoRico.塔尼娅是健康作坊的经营者ElizondoTaniarunsTallerSalud.这是一个女权非营利组织Itsawomen,sempowermentnonprofit,总部位于距离波多黎各首府不到32公里远的headquarteredlessthan20milesfromPuertoRicoscapital滨海小镇洛萨inthecoastaltownofLoiza.它最初是一群逃奴组建的村庄RosarioItwasfoundedasavillageofrunawayslaves.住在洛萨的60%的人口SixtypercentofpeoplelivinginLofza认为自
18、己是非裔波多黎各黑人identifythemselvesasBlackAfro-PuertoRicans.这座城市夹在两条河流、海洋ElizondoThetownisnestledbetweentworivers,和一片广阔沼泽之间theocean,andavastswamp,有利于当地居民保护他们的非裔波多黎各文化whichhelpeditsresidentsprotecttheirAfro-PuertoRicanculture.洛萨人发明了邦巴1.ofzenosinventedbomba,一种融合了西班牙和非洲音乐的音乐形式afusionOfSpanishandAfricanmusic.但
19、洛萨的地理环境也将它ButLoizasgeographyalso和圣胡安的经济发展隔绝开来isolateditfromtheeconomicprogressofSanJuan.五、六十年代的城市规划RosarioItwaskindofleftoutofurbanplanning,洛萨都不在其中backinthe50sand60s.其中很大的原因是种族主义Racismplayedabigpart.医院、大学整体基础建设方面Nothingwasdonetoprovidephysical,concreteaccess没有任何实质发展tohospitals,universities,infrastru
20、ctureingeneral.飓风玛利亚登陆时贫困和洪水ElizondoPovertyandallthatwater让洛萨尤为不堪一击madeLoizaparticularlyvulnerablewhenMariamadelandfall.飓风将海洋掀起推在前方Hurricanespiletheoceanupinfrontofthem,制♥造♥出滔天巨浪creatingmountainouswaves.风暴潮席卷了洛萨的海岸AndthisstormsurgegnawedawayatLoizascoast.同时云层释放了蓄积已久的海水Atthesametime,the
21、cloudsunleashedtheirstockpilesofoceanwater,河水暴涨淹没了整个社区overfillingriversandfloodingwholeneighborhoods.有些地方的洪水将近两米深RosarioInsomeplaces,thefloodwasfive,sixfeethigh,淹了人们的住♥宅♥soitwascoveringhomes.有些洪水来自下水道Someofthefloodwassewagewater.洛萨是波多黎各受灾最严重的城市之一ElizondoLofzawasoneofthehardest-hittowns
22、inPuertoRico.三千间房♥子被毁Threethousandhousesweredestroyed.洛萨是全球现象的一个缩影AndLofzaispartofaglobalpattern.更贫穷的社区通常就在更容易发生洪灾的地区Poorercommunitiesareofteninmoreflood-proneareas.越南的一些城市是如此ThatstrueinVietnamcities孟加拉西南部亦是如此andinsouthwestBangladesh.或者它们更接近工厂Ortheyreclosertoindustrialplants,例如在德克萨斯州休斯顿likein
23、Houston,Texas.2017年飓风哈维在这片区域倾泻了大量降雨In2017,HurricaneHarveydumpedseveralfeetofrainontheregion,让该区域有毒废物场发生泄漏breachingitstoxicwastesites.飓风造成的洪灾给周围社区带来污染NewkirkHurricanefloodscancarrycontaminationtosurroundingcommunities.贫穷的地区更不堪一击ElizondoPoorareasaremorevulnerable立刻得到救助的可能性更低andtheyrelesslikelytogethel
24、prightaway.波多黎各就是一个很好的例子PuertoRicowasakeyexample.卫星图像显示的是飓风前后ElizondoSatelliteimagesshowtheislandslights岛上的灯光beforethestormandafter.几个月过去圣胡安恢复了电力AsmonthspassedandSanJuanregainedpower,更偏远的地区包括洛萨的很多地方仍然一片黑喑moreremoteareas,includingmuchofLoiza,remainedinthedark.前波多黎各总督TheformergovernorofPuertoRico在推特上发
25、了一张在手电筒灯光下进行的手术照片tweetedaphotoofsurgeryperformedbyflashlight.肾病患者不得不每周乘三次飞机Kidneypatientshadtotakeaplanethreetimesaweek到正常运作的透析中心toreachaworkingdialysiscenter.糖尿病患者无法用冰箱储存胰岛素Diabeticscouldntrefrigeratetheirinsulin.难以置信inSpanishIt,sincredible.这是-场波及全国的危机Itsacrisisaffectingthewholeofthecountry.飓风玛利亚过后
26、的几周和几个月里ElizondoIntheweeksandmonthsafterMaria,死亡人数持续攀升thedeathtollcontinuedtoclimb.本该受到保护的人RosarioTherewerelivesthatwerelost失去了生命thatshouldhavebeenprotected.发生的是自然事件Eventsarenatural,灾难却是政♥治♥造成的anddisastersarepolitical.波多黎各是美国领土ElizondoPuertoRicoisaterritoryoftheUS,所以他们向联邦政♥府&hea
27、rts;寻求帮助sotheylookedtotheirfederalgovernmentforhelp.没有帮助持续的人道危机Withouthelp,theongoinghumanitariancrisis只会恶化willonlygetworse.波多黎各的居民都是美国公民TheresidentsofPuertoRicoareAmericancitizens.这是联邦政♥府♥的职责Thisisajobforthefederalgovernment.但联邦政♥府♥救援迟缓ElizondoButthefedswereslowtosendaid
28、,波多黎各政♥府♥分配不均andthentheislandgovernmentmismanageditsdistribution.没有直面这些危机的几个人RosarioAfewpeoplethatdontfacethoserisks来决定那些在灾害预防和管理方面decideovercommunitieswithalotofaccumulatedexpertise积累了大量专业知识的区域的命运ondisasterpreparednessandmanagement.这真是既傲慢又残酷It,ssocondescendingandalsosocruel.飓风玛利亚带来了悲剧
29、性后果ElizondoTheaftermathofMariawasatragedy,但在飓风来袭前有个小小的胜利butbeforethestormhit,therewasasmalltriumph.多亏了数卜年来人类的聪明才智Thankstodecadesofhumaningenuity,波多黎各人知道飓风即将到来thepeopleofPuertoRicoknewitwascoming.加勒比海地区的土著居民例如泰诺人TheindigenouspeopleoftheCaribbean,liketheTaino,学会了辨别飓风到来的早期征兆hadlearnedtorecognizetheearl
30、ysignsofthesestorms.高高的羽毛状云彩High,featheryclouds,军舰鸟在不同往常的时间归巢andfrigatebirdscominghometoroostatunusualtimes.岛上的新移♥民♥对这些警示一无所知Newcomerstotheislandswereignorantofthesewarnings.1780年一场飓风横穿加勒比海In1780,ahurricanecutthroughtheCaribbean短短几天内造成了两万两千人丧生and,inafewshortdays,killed22,000.但在1928年场城力
31、相近的飓风Butin1928,whenasimilarlypowerfulstorm走相似的路径穿过波多黎各时圣胡安的晴雨表cutafamiliarpathacrossPuertoRico,barometersinSanJuan检测到了气压卜.降这预示着强风暴的到来pickedupthedropinatmosphericpressurethatprecedesamassivestorm.电报将警报发送到岛上的每个地区Telegraphcablessentalertstoeverydistrictontheisland,广播播放飓风警告andradiosbroadcastawarning.结果风
32、暴造成的死亡人数很少Asaresult,thestormhadafractionofthedeathtoll.而且我们的预测只会越来越好Andourforecastinghasonlygottenbetter.来自加勒比海每个角落的man1FromeverycorneroftheCaribbean,天气信息全天候接收weatherinformationisreceived24hoursaday发送者是岛上的气象局fromislandweatherstations,还有空军和海军侦察中队的飞机andfromplanesoftheAirForceandNavyreconnaissancesquad
33、rons.然后在1961年ElizondoAndthen,in1961,出现了开创性的关于卡拉飓风的新闻报道cameapioneeringnewsreportonHurricaneCarla.有史以来第一次观众在电视上看到飓风的雷达图像Forthefirsttimeever,TVaudienceswereshownradarimagesofahurricane.那里就是飓风眼man2Thereistheeyeofthehurricanerightthere.光是看到地图上这场风暴的巨大规模Elizondoustseeingthesheersizeofthestormonamap就让成千上万的人
34、逃往安全地带inspiredthousandstofleetosafety.就在同一天Andonthatsameexactday发生了另一件重大的第一次cameanotherhugefirst.泰洛斯三号♥卫星比地上的人类TheTIROS-3satellitespottedahurricanefromspace更早发现了飓风的存在beforehumansonthegroundknewitexisted.它只是未来更高级天气预报的开路者man3Itisjustthepathfinderformoreadvancedweatherforecaststocome.十年后Elizondo
35、Adecadelater,两天的预报误差大约是不到五百公里two-dayforecastswereoffbyabout300miles,这个数字正在稳步下降下降至今天的大约80公里andthatnumberhassteadilydropped,downtoabout50milestoday.所以死于飓风的人变少了Sofewerpeoplearedying.20世纪60年代每年大概有数万人Inthe1960s,youmighthavetensofthousandsofpeople溺死在风暴洪灾里drowningeachyearinstormwaters.现在该数字通常是数百人Now,thetyp
36、icalnumberisinthehundreds.尽管气象预测和防灾措施已经有了很大的进步Aswellastheforecasthasbeen,allthestepsofpreparation,这并不意味着不会有损失itdoesnotmeantherewillnotbedamages.克雷格弗格特曾是联邦紧急事务管理局的行政长官ElizondoCraigFugatewastheadministratorofFEMA,该局的职责是应对自然灾害theUSagencythatrespondstonaturaldisasters.我们看到路径预测得到极大改进Weveseentrackforecast
37、improvetremendously.强度预测却一直落后Intensityforecasthasbeenlagging.有时飓风的强度会突然飙升ElizondoTherearesometimessuddenleapsinahurricanesstrength,让气象学家大吃一惊anditcancatchmeteorologistsbysurprise.昨天它还是热带风暴Yesterday,itwasjustatropicalstorm.强度预测显示飓风发生了很大改变Theintensityforecastshowingsomebigchanges.没人预料到它的强度会变得这么大Nobodyr
38、eallyanticipateditbeingasstrongasitwas.从公众认知的角度来看Theserapidintensifiers,theyareextremelydangerous这类强度快速发展的飓风极其危险fromthestandpointofthepublicsperceptionOf一开始人们觉得“只是个一级飓风嘛”Well,itwasonlyaCatl.,t然后过了24小时后它变成了五级飓风Andthen24hourslater,itsaCat5.人们会说：“早知它会变成五级飓风我肯定会撤离的”IfIknewitwasgonnabeaCat5,dhaveevacuate
39、d.科学家们认为由于气候变化这种风暴强度快速增长的现象ElizondoScientiststhinkthisrapidintensificationisbecomingmorecommon,会越来越常见thankstoclimatechange.我想在气候变化中间加个“已”它已经变化了1liketosayclimatechangewithaD.Itsalreadychanged,我们已经测量到海平面在显著升高andwerealreadymeasuringsignificantincreasesinsealevelrise.升高了大约25厘米ElizondoAlmostteninches.很多大
40、城市的海拔已经接近海平面了Manymajorcitiesarealreadyclosetosealevel,而海洋可能还会升高大约30厘米andtheoceanislikelytoriseanotherfoot,也许到本世纪末会升高一、两米maybeseveralfeet,bytheendofthecentury.海平面每上升一点都是在增添未来的风暴潮Everyextrainchaddstoafuturestormsurge.这让海滨风暴尤其是飓风造成的洪灾Andthatmakesthefloodingfromcoastalstorms,破坏性急剧增加butparticularlyhurric
41、anes,muchmoredevastating.变暖的海水可能加快风速ElizondoAndwarmerwatersarelikelyfuelingfasterwinds,增加风暴降水量andrainierstorms.而且随着海水升温现象向两极接近Andaswaterheatsupclosertothepoles,有证据表面全球气旋活动区域将会扩张there,ssomeevidencetheworldscyclonezoneswillexpand.但这点还尚未确定Butwedontknowforsure.全球变暖可能造成奇怪的影响Globalwarmingcanhavestrangeeff
42、ects.比如说它似乎在让飓风移♥动♥速度变缓Forexample,itseemstobemakinghurricanestravelmoreslowly.回顾一下飓风多里安FugateYougobacktoHurricaneDorian这个超强飓风登陆大巴哈马岛thatliterallysatonGrandBahamafordays肆虐数天,asamajorhurricane.一直以来热带气旋造成的财产损失越来越严重ElizondoTropicalcycloneshavebeencausingmoreandmoredollarsofdamage,气候变化可能会让此
43、更加恶化andclimatechangewilllikelymakethatworse.但我们目前所看到的这个趋势主要原因在于Butthetrendweveseensofarismainlydriven越来越多的人在风暴路径区域建造了更多建筑bymorepeoplebuildingmorestuffinthepathofdestruction.从1970年到2010年From1970to2010,世界总人口几乎翻了一倍whiletheworldspopulationalmostdoubled,而热带气旋多发的海滨地区总人口将近增加了两倍thepopulationincyclone-pronec
44、oastlinesnearlytripled.但不是所有人都能留下来Butnoteveryonewillbeabletostay.更多的人必须决定Youseemoreandmorepeoplehavetomakedecisionsabout是否要离开whethertheyregonnaleavealtogether.这些风灾前沿地区的人很务实Thesefrontlinecommunities,theyrepragmatic.他们明白这里不适合居住Theyunderstanditsnotgonnabephysicallylivable,但他们也在渴求认可buttheyalsoaredemandi
45、ngrecognition这片土地对他们的意义forwhatthelandmeanstothem.洛萨其实被誉为波多黎各的传统文化之都RosarioLofzaisactuallycalledthecapitalOftraditionsinPuertoRico,是非裔波多黎各人的大本营andit,sastrongholdofAfro-PuertoRicanidentity.它是他们与祖先的纽带NewkirkItconnectsthemtotheirancestors.而不只是一片栖息之地Itismorethanjustaplotofrealestate.我们应该让气候变化Shouldweletc
46、limatechange把我们赶出家园吗？driveusawayfromourcommunities?在这个国家的某些地方重建根本没有意义Insomepartsofthecountry,rebuildingisjustnotgonnamakesense.而在其他地方就是一个工程就能解决的事Inotherpartsofthecountry,itmaybeanengineeringsolution.多亏了对照试验ElizondoWeregettingbetteratbuildingwind-resistanthomes,和实际经验thankstocontrolledexperiments抗风房♥屋的建设技术IE在改进andreal-worldexperience.这是飓风迈克尔来袭前佛罗里达州墨西哥海滩ThisisMexicoBeach,Florida,beforeHurrica
