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1、嫌疑人进入视线Suspectapproachinglocation.正在走入大楼Suspectenteringbuilding.嫌疑人与两名同伙开始行动Suspectplustwoonthemove.你能指认此名男子吗？Wouldyoupleaseidentifythatman?是DamianLakeDamianLake.他现在在法庭上吗？Andisheinthiscourtroomrightnow?请记录目击者指认出被告1.ettherecordshowthatthewitnessidentifiedthedefendant.之后发生了什么？Andthenwhathappened?亲爰的你终
2、于来了Baby,thereyouare.我们的朋友在哪儿？Wheresourfriend?FBI为何要对Lake进行监控？WhywastheFBISurveillingMr.Lake?DamianLake开了一家国际咨♥询♥公♥司♥DamianLakeownsConsultantsInternational,他被怀疑利用货机whichoperatesafleetofcargoplanessuspectedin向16个国家运送非法武器thetransferofillegalweaponstoelementsin16countries,包括索
3、马里伊♥拉♥克♥和阿富汗includingSomalia,Iraq,andAfghanistan.为什么FBl那天会出现在皇室酒店？AndwhywastheFBIattheCrownPrinceHotelthatday?我们安排了一场会面让Lake先生约见我们的一个卧底探员WesetupameetingbetweenMr.Lakeandanundercoveragent.1.ake我是JackHiggins1.ake,mJackHiggins.就算做不成生意这里的洗浴中心国际一流Well,ifwerenotgonnadeal,thishotelhasa
4、nexcellentspa,怎么说都是赚到了soitsawinformeeitherway.JaCk听说自从97年利比亚石油枯竭Jack,heardyougotyourstartsupplyingtheIRA你就开始向爱尔兰共和军提供武器了whentheLibyanpipelinerandryin97.机不可失嘛Opportunityknocked.幸亏做这种生意永远不愁找不到买♥♥家Fortunatelyinthisbusiness,whenonemarketdriesup,there,salwaysanother.EricaDaniels是FBI的线人Erica
5、DanielswasanFBIinformant.她也是DamianLake的女友ShewasalsoDamianLakesgirlfriend.她怎公会同意与FBI合作？WhydidsheagreetoworkwiththeFBI?她的哥哥在阿富汗服役HerbrotherservedtwotermsinAfghanistan.而Lake向基♥地♥组♥织♥运送武器AndtheideathataweaponLakesoldtoAlQaeda她哥哥可能因这些武器而丧命这点让她很害怕mightbeusedtokillhimwasintolera
6、bletoher.她在这次行动中起了什么作用？Andwhatwasherroleintheoperation?我伪装成导弹制导芯片的买♥♥家她把我引见给LakeTopresentmeasabuyerlookingtopurchasemissileguidancechips.你是怎么找上我的？Mowdyoufindme?总不会是翻电♥话♥簿翻到我的吧Youdontlookupfire-and-forgetguidancesystemsintheYellowPages.是ViktOrTramaSCO介绍的ViktorTramasco.Vikt
7、orViktor.对巴兰基利亚发生的事我很抱歉It,saterriblethingwhathappenedinBarranquilla.幸好Viktor死得很快FortunatethingaboutViktorsdeathisitwasquick.造♥反&hearts库肯定对他施了酷刑RCrebelswouldvetorturedhim.是的Yeah.不过这也有个好处你不用付Viktor的佣金了Well,theothergoodthingisyoudonthavetopayViktorsfindersfee.应该付的Wouldvepaidit.反坦克导弹若没有导航芯片就等于废铁一
8、堆Anti-tankmisseswithoutguidancechipsareprettydamnworthless.我们会送货上门Theproductisdelivered.专为PGM148反坦克火箭筒设计的即插即用追踪器Plug-and-playtrackersforyourPGM148Javelins.我全要了He,snoVanna,butdliketobuyem.我只收现金Itakecash.你似乎松了一口气Youlookrelieved.你说什么？What?什么意思？Whatdoyoumean?到底做不做这笔生意？Wegotadealornot?等等发生情况实行B计划Waitamin
9、ute.There,saproblem.Okay,B-Team1,go.大家向嫌疑人靠拢1.etsgo.Movein.Everybody,comeon.你走吧Takeawalk.货物被带寓现场-我去跟Theproductisleaving.-monit.大家各就各位Everybodywatchyourline.别这么做Youdontwanttodothat.闭嘴Please,shutup.Fox跟丢了velostFox.我们是FBl放下武器FBI.Putyourgundown.他用枪抵着Daniels小姐HehadMs.Danielsatgunpoint.你亲眼见到被告用枪口柢着Daniels
10、小姐吗？DidyouactuallyseethedefendantholdthegunonMs.Daniels?没有他的手在她身后No,itwasbehindherback.这么说你看到的只是被告与Daniels小姐站在一起So,allyoureallysawwasthedefendantstandingwithMs.Daniels.冷静冷静Easy.takeiteasy.把枪放下!把枪放下！Putitdown!Putitdown!把枪放F!Putitdown!不许动-她来夺枪可惜枪走火了Dontmove.Shegrabbedthegun.Itwentoff.把他带走Getoverhere.T
11、akehim.你们应该赶快救她Weshouldgethersomehelp.我的客户那天去酒店只是为了商务会谈Myclientwastherethatdaytomeetabusinesscontact.FBI却声称他走私武器TheFBIclaimshewastheretosellcontraband,但根本没有找到走私的物品butthesupposeditemwasnotfound,甚至连一丝证据都没有找到andthereisnoevidencethatitevenexists.没有证据表明我的客户杀害了EricaDanielsAndthereisnoevidencethatmyclienth
12、armedEricaDaniels.他以为发生了武装抢劫只是想保护她而已Hewastryingtoprotectherfromwhatappearedtohimtobeanarmedrobbery.所有恐慌都由FBI的探员引起FBIagentscreatedthesecircumstances,因没有及时亮明身份而引起了场面的混乱failedtoidentifythemselvesappropriately,creatingpanicandchaos.Daniels小姐被求生之望所趋Ms.Daniels,fearingforherlife,与唯一能够帮助她的人发生了扭打struggledwit
13、htheonepersonwhowastryingtohelpher.该为这起惨案负责的人Herdeathisatragedythatshouldbelaidatthefeetofthoseresponsible:正是当时在场的FBl探员theFBIagentsatthescene.EricaDaniels愿意作证指控DamianLakeEricaDanielswastheonepersonwillingtotestifyagainstDamianLake.而现在Lake先生却口1声广希望你们相信由命运残酷的玩笑AndnowMr.Lakewantsyoutobelievethatbysomec
14、rueltwistoffate,在联邦探员对被告进行围攻的情况下Erica意外被害Ericawasaccidentallykilledjustasfederalagentswereclosinginonhim.然而这不是玩笑Theresnotwist.也不是命运Theresnofate.只是被告的灭绝人性Justcruelty.这起案件正如你们所看到的一样Thiscaseisexactlywhatitlookslike.完全是起谋杀案Itsmurder.你看到了什么？Whatdoyousee?一大碗水It,sabowlofwater.这地球人都知道Obviously.但呈现在眼前的不仅与此bu
15、ttheresmoreherethanmeetstheeye.数学是种有效的通用语言完全超越了条条框框的束缚See,mathisauniversallyeffectivetoolthatcantranscendanyboxorbowl.同时可以用来界定和量化某些肉眼看不到的东西Italsoallowsustoseeordefineandquantifythingsthatarentreadilyobservable.吸水球Hydrophilicspheres.暴露在空气中时它们是坚固的晶状体一旦将它们置于水中.Theystartashardcrystals,butwhenyoudropthem
16、inthewater.它们可以膨胀300倍theyexpandto300timestheirsize.由于这晶状球大部分由水构成Andbecausethespherecrystalsaremostlywater,它们一旦沉入水中就看不见了theybecomeinvisibleoncesubmerged,是由于与液体有着相同的折射率duetoanidenticalindexofrefractionwiththeliquid.你们看我们倾向于领会我们认可的事物Yousee,ourtendencyistoseewhatweexpecttosee.蓝色天空Bluesky.白色光线Whitelight.
17、一碗清澈的水Aclearbowlofwater.但是数学教会我们更多地去期待那些隐藏在表象之下的事物Butmathteachesustoexpectmorehiddenbeneaththesurface.陪审团做出裁决了吗？Hasthejuryreachedaverdict?是的法官阁下Wehave,YourHonor.被告请起立Willthedefendantpleaserise.就起诉Lake一级谋杀罪一案InthecaseofUnitedStatesv.Lakeonthecountoffirst-degreemurder,陪审团认定被告.thejuryfindsthedefendant.
18、无罪.notguilty.Numb3rs数字缉凶第五季第15集我希望你在考虑分享头彩奖金Ihopeyou,rethinkingofsharingthejackpot.我不会预测彩票mnotpredictingthelottery.再说最后一遍我不会Andforthelasttime,Icant.我知道你总说你不会但我认为你不想Iknowyoualwayssayyoucan,t,butIthinkyouwont.这是一个空间动态的陪审团模型Itsaspatialdynamicjurymodel.它是一种统计陪审团行为的模型It,sastatisticalmodelofjurybehavior.它
19、是由12个愤怒的数学家发明的？Wasitdevelopedby12angrymathematicians?我在试着找出Lake一案的陪审团是如何得出裁决的mtryingtofigureouthowLakesjuryreacheditsverdict使用一些允许多参数的可变函数模型usingtheslidingvariablescalethatallowsformultipleparameters它们对投票所产生的影响力affectingthedynamicsofvoting,比如一个陪审员施加于他人的影响suchastheweightajurorplacesonthevotesofothers
20、,同意有罪的陪审员号♥会降卜.来同意无罪释放的会升上去convictionfloor,acquittalceiling.一个简单的“对就足够了Asimpleyeswouldhavesufficed.听着你做完那个之后能都我个忙吗？Hey,listen,whenyou,redonewiththat,wouldyoumindlookingatsomethingforme?好啊当然什么事？Yeah,sure,whatisit?我的简历我加入了FacebookMyprofile.mjoiningFacebook.哦我想既然我重回大学Well,Ifigured,sincembackinco
21、llege,我能找寻一些旧朋友Icanhookupwithsomeoldfriends,你知道的甚至可能结交一些新朋友youknow,maybeevenmakenewones,和我有着相近兴趣爱好的人peoplewithsimilarintereststomine.对什么感兴趣歌♥舞青春？Interestinwhat,HighSchoolMusical?不不得了吧CharIie这可不只是孩子的东西No,no,comeon,Charlie.It,snotjustforkids.在网上有很多各种各样的人Imean,alotofdifferentkindofpeopleareonthe
22、site.对我知道你说得对No,Iknow,youreright.事实上在那个网上有超过100万的人Infact,theresover100millionpeopleonthatsite.这让找到任何一个人的机会都非常高Thatswhatmakestheoddsoffindinganyonepersonprettyhigh.那好吧那我应该在我的简历里放点什么Allright,so,whatshouldIputonmyprofile才能让恰当的人找到我？sothattherightpeoplecanfindme?哦就放所有关于你详尽的资料Well,justlotsofspecificsabout
23、yourself这样网站就能根据系列条款运算帮你找到相匹配的sothattheWebsitesalgorithmcanmatchyouagainstarangeofterms.好吧例如？-就像你的爱好Allright,likewhat?-Likeyourinterestin,艺术和工艺设计环保工程锦腥鱼artsandcraftsdesign,greenengineering,koifish.别忘了菜谱对奶酪或和火鸡绞肉来个特写anddontforgetone-dishrecipesfeaturingGruyrecheeseand/orgroundturkey.刚才那个对我厨艺的评价为你带来一整
24、个星期的脆皮烤火鸡Thatcommentaboutmycookinghasjustboughtyouoneentireweekofturkeyaugratin.DamianLake杀了EricaDanielS就当着我彳门的面DamianLakekilledEricaDaniels,practicallyinfrontofus.那公为什么我们不能说服12个人呢？So,whycouldntweconvince12people?好吧我们一起想办法Okay,Iwantoptions.Letsgo.呃相同罪名不能两次审理Well,doublejeopardyprotectsLakefromamistri
25、al.对就谋杀这一项Yeah,onthemurdercharge.那么用反诈骗法呢？WhataboutRICOaction?1.ake的公♥司♥创立时是英国密情局的掩护机构1.akescompanywascreatedasacutoutfortheBritishSecretIntelligenceService向世界各地运送武器tomoveweaponsaroundtheworld.当他离职后他完整不动的保留了公♥司♥Whenheretired,hekeptthecompanyintactandfreelanced.除了买♥
26、♥卖♥♥武器这一块公♥司♥是合法的Exceptforthesellinganyweapontoanybuyerpart,companyislegit.军情六处把他培养得很好MI6taughtthisguywell.经验的累积让他更狡猾了He,sonlygottenbetterwithtime.我不在乎这一切我就是要想个办法抓到他1dontcareaboutanyofthat;Iwanttofindawaytogethim.凭什么呢？-凭我们能抓到的任何线索Forwhat?-Forwhateverwecanmakestick.
27、当Erica被杀时我在世界的另一边IwasontheothersideoftheworldwhenEricawaskilled.她在远处担心我Shewasworriedaboutmeoverthere.我就是那个她总要去照顾的小♥弟♥弟♥Iwasalwaysthelittlebrothershehadtotakecareof.她为你骄傲Shewasproudofyou.她觉得阻止了一个军♥火♥走私贩世界就安全了？Shethoughtshecouldmaketheworldasaferplacebystoppingonegun
28、runner?不她觉得这样会使你更安全No,shethoughtitwouldmakeyousafer,让更多为国效力的战士更安全makealotofmenservingourcountrysafer.当她意识到Lake的为人她.WhensherealizedwhatkindofmanLakewas,she.她尝试做了正确的事shetriedtodotherightthing.我的姐姐一生中犯了不少错误Mysistermadealotofmistakesinherlife.我没想到寻求政♥府♥保护也会是其中之一Ididntthinktrustingthegovern
29、menttoprotectherwouldbeoneofthem.我脑海里不停地在想Ijustkeepgoingoveritinmyhead:那场审判我做了什么说了什么thetrial,whatIdid,whatIsaid.你办了个漂亮的案子知道吗？我是说如果你没有我会告诉你Youranagoodcase,youknow?Imean,Iwouldtellyouifyoudidn,t.我输了Ilost.不你没输我们输了No,youdidnt.WelostErica的弟弟才.是那个真正输掉的人Ericasbrotheristheonewhoreallylost.这实在太没有道理了我们抓住那个男人I
30、tjustdoesntmakesense.Imean,wehadtheguy.Wehadhim.你说得对这说不过去Youreright.Itdoesntmakesense.我们现在看到的是空间动态陪审团模式Sowhatwerelookingathereisaspatialdynamicjurymodel.它演示了陪审团的审议进程Itsavisualrenderingofajurysdeliberationprocess.它会告诉我们陪审团是如何得出判决？Thisissupposedtotellushowthejuryreachedtheirverdict?不是如何而是通过这个特定陪审团Noth
31、ow,butwhethertheverdictwasaprobable得出可能或不可能的裁定orimprobableoutcomeforthisparticularjury.你能通过数学预测人们的思考？Youcanpredicthowpeoplethinkusingmath?使用概率Usingprobabilities.想像一下翻转一枚正常的硬币两个可能的结果正面或反面Nowthinkofastandardcoinflip,twopossibleoutcomes:headsortails.正常情况下这被认为是一个随机事件Normally,thisisconsideredarandomevent
32、不可能预测但是使用概率计算impossibletopredict.Butusingprobabilitycalculations,通过因式分解一些变量你可以得出合理的猜测youcanmakeaneducatedguessbyfactoringinsuchvariablesas如它的速度重量每秒转速移♥动♥距离thevelocityofthecoin,itsweight,flipspersecond,thtimeanddistancetraveled.掌握这些变量会使你猜对的几率变大Knowingthesevariablesshiftstheoddsinyourfav
33、or.你把它运用到陪审团Youapplythistoajury,会让你更好地理解特定的结果是如何达成anditincreasesyourunderstandingofhowaparticularoutcomewasreached.考虑到种种因素包括证据和证人证词Now,duetofactorsincludingthequalityofevidenceandwitnesstestimony,陪审团可能判Lake有罪是占压倒性的theprobabilitythatLake,sjurywouldconvictisoverwhelming.那就是被♥操♥纵的了?Soitwa
34、srigged?不会陪审员都是匿名的No,thejurywasanonymous.只有法官知道他们的身份他们被暂时扣押受到看护Onlythejudgeknewtheiridentities.Theyweresequesteredandguarded.这不能阻止他们你知道那种人他们认为他们能够逃脱一切Thatsnotgonnastopem;youknow,thisisthekindofguythatthinkshecangetawaywithanything.呃我们有QJSWellthereistheQ)S.哦QJSUh,QJS定性评审的软件对吗？QualitativeJurySoftware,
35、right?对Thatsright.法♥院♥依靠它更方便的挑选陪审员Courtsrelyonittofacilitatethejurorselectionprocess.那个软件用一个叫做Mersenne扭转器的伪随机数发电机Yeah,thatsoftwareusesapseudo-randomnumbergeneratorcalledtheMersenneTwister从车管局的记录和选民登记中去收集潜在的陪审员名单toassemblelistsofpotentialjurorsfromDMVrecordsandvoterregistration.该软件有权获得他
36、们的名字地址社保号♥码Thatsoftwarehasaccesstotheirnames,addresses,andSocialSecuritynumbers.谁是拥有者？Andwhohasaccesstoit?任何有关这款法♥院♥软件的问题Anytechnicalquestionsyouhaveaboutthecourtssoftware,你必须去问发明者JuryFindyouregoingtohavetoaskthecompanywhomakesit:JuryFind.你是法♥院♥书♥记♥员Y
37、oureacourtclerk.你不留意这里的所有行动？Youdontkeepaneyeonalltheoperationshere?我留意所有的问题把JuryFind的号♥码留在了速拨键Ikeepaneyeoutforproblems,andJuryFindonspeeddial.他们的技术是唯一被许可连接到系统的Theirtechniciansaretheonlyoneswithclearancetoaccessthesystem.最近有什么问题嘛？Anyproblemslately?让我想想1.etssee.它总是传唤那些厌恶陪审团义务的人来Italwayssummonsp
38、eoplewhohatejuryduty.最近一次传人来是什么时候？Whenwasthelasttimetheysentsomeoneouthere?大约六星期之前Aboutsixweeksago.一个男人来安装了一个软件补丁Aguyinstalledasoftwarepatch.就在Lake的案子之前RightbeforeLakestrial.你认识那技术员吗？Doyouknowthetech?我知道他很让人恼火IknowhecussesinVulcan.哦他有身份证明忘了停车证Uh,yeah.HehadID,forgothisparkingpass.那伙计的车在停车场被拖走了Dudesca
39、rgottowedfromthelot.你记得他的名字嘛？Yourememberhisname?不但我正在忍♥住问这个问题的欲望Spock会怎么做？（星际迷航中角色）No,butIremembersuppressingtheurgetoask,WhatwouldSpockdo?我们需要那家拖车公♥司♥的名字Weregonnaneedthenameofthetowtruckcompany.也在速拨键上Gotthatoneonspeeddial,too.1.ake先生的辩护律师团聘请我作为陪审团顾问Mr.Lakesdefenseteamhiredmyser
40、vicesasajuryconsultant也就是说你帮DamianLake的律师选择了一个Inotherwords,youhelpedDamianLakesattorneysselectajury会为他们客户做出有利判决的陪审团thatwouldreturnafavorableverdictfortheirclient.陪审团咨♥询♥是一项诉讼程序Juryconsultingispartoftheadversarialprocess.查一下我的记录你会发现我为控方和辨方干活的次数差不多Checkmyrecord.You,llseethatIworkforthepr
41、osecutionasoftenasIhaveforthedefense.对我而言你告诉我的所有事情Seemstomethateverythingyoutellthem,都可以从调查问卷中得知theycouldgetfromthequestionnaire.啊不过调查问卷不能告诉他们的是Ah,butaquestionnairecanttellthemthat陪审员的态度所产生的偏见比他们因为性别对待强♥奸♥的态度jurorsattitudesaremuchstrongerindicatorsofbiasthantheirdemographic-更能影响判决ortha
42、tattitudestowardsrapearebetterverdictpredictorsthangender.这是你的科学意见Isthatyourscientificopinion,还是你用来说服强♥奸♥犯付钱给你？orthewayyouconvincerapiststopayyourfee?我使用经过测算的判断Iusecalculatedjudgment去发现人们不愿意承认的touncoverwhatpeopledontwanttoadmit.不管是以书面形式还是隐藏着的onpaperortothemselves.我是个观察者Betancourt特工mano
43、bserver,AgentBetancourt.你想知道我对你的看法吗？YouwanttoknowwhatIsee?你的穿着像联邦调查局人员但走路姿势像警♥察♥YoudresslikeaFed,butyouwalklikeacop.你受过辩论和修辞方面的训练Youvehadtrainingindebateandrhetoric,使我猜你转入♥联♥邦调查局whichleadsmetoguessthatyoujumpedtotheBureauwith,letssee,依靠的是你的法律学位？alawdegree?你还有更大的抱负这连你同事都不知
44、道Youhavemuchloftierambitionsthanyourcolleaguesevenknow.我想是.政♥治♥方面mthinking.politics.透彻地分♥析♥别人-Shiningalightonotherpeople-是掩饰自己的好方法thatsagoodwaytostayhiddenintheshadows.你以后参选时通知我Youletmeknowwhenyourunforoffice.我会投你一票Youvegotmyvote.你来这真是浪费汽油Youreallyshouldconsidersomethinga
45、bitmorefuel-efficient.你的门开着Hey,youknow,yourgatewasopen.我猜你是想告诉我事情还没完1.etmeguess:thisiswhereyoutellmethatitsnotover,你会另找法子送我入狱thatyouregoingtofindanotherwaytoputmeinjail.你被半打联邦探员盯着Well,yougotahalfdozenfederalagenciesonyourass.坐牢是迟早的事Itsjustamatteroftime.厄运要来也挡不住mhauntedbymyinescapablefate.现在你高兴了？Happ
46、ynow?你会因杀害EricaDaniels而坐牢的Justknow：whenyougodown,itsgoingtobeforkillingEricaDaniels.这在法律上是不可能的有规定是一罪不两审”Thatsalegalimpossibility.Somethingcalleddoublejeopardy.也许你已听说过Maybeyou,veheardofit.你听说过无效审判吗？Youeverhearofamistrial?也许吧你和检察官做错了Maybe,uh,youandtheDAdidabadjob.我是清白的有自♥由♥地离开本国想去哪儿都行mainnocentman,freetoleavethecountry,gowhereverI
