《发电成本2023-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《发电成本2023-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx（36页珍藏版）》请在课桌文档上搜索。
1、DepartmentforEnergySecurity&NetZeroElectricityGenerationCosts2023FirstpublishedAugust2023;updatedNovember2023OGLCrowncopyright2023ThispublicationislicensedunderthetermsoftheOpenGovernmentLicencev3.0exceptwhereotherwisestated.Toviewthislicence,visitnationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/ODen-government-licence/
2、VerSion/3orwritetotheInformationPolicyTeam,TheNationalArchives,Kew,LondonTW94DU,oremail:DSinationalarch；ves.qsi.qov.uk.Wherewehaveidentifiedanythird-partycopyrightinformationyouwillneedtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightholdersconcerned.Anyenquiriesregardingthispublicationshouldbesenttousat:aeneratio
3、ncostseneravsecuritv.aov.ukContentsAcronymglossary5Introduction7Section 1: HowIevelisedcostsarecalculated10Section 2: Changestogenerationcostassumptions12Renewabletechnologies12Onshorewind&solarPV12Offshorewind14TheCrownEstateLeasingRound414FloatingOffshoreWindandTidalStreamresearch15Non-renewablete
4、chnologies17Hydrogen-firedCCGTs17EnergyfromWaste&AdvancedConversionTechnologies18PowerCCUSandpowerBECCS18Nucleartechnologies18Cross-cuttingassumptions19Fuelcosts&gatefees19Carbonprices19BalancingServicesUseofSystem(BSUoS)charges19Deflatorassumptions20Fuelemissionsfactors20Heatrevenues20Howthedepartm
5、entusesgenerationcostdatainmodelling211.evelisedcostsaresensitivetotheassumptionsused211.evelisedcostsarenotstrikeprices22Section 3: Generationcostestimates24Projectscommissioningin202524Projectscommissioningin203026Projectscommissioningin203528Projectscommissioningin204030Comparisonbetweentechnolog
6、iesovertime33ElectricityGenerationCostsReport2023ComparisontopreviousIevelisedcostestimates33Section 4: Peakingtechnologies36AcronymglossaryACTAdvancedConversionTechnologiesADAnaerobicDigestionASPAdministrativeStrikePriceBECCSBioenergywithCarbonCaptureandStorageB日SDepartmentforBusiness,EnergyandIndu
7、strialStrategyBSUoSBalancingServicesUseofSystemCCGTCombinedCycleGasTurbineCCUSCarbonCaptureUsageandStorageCfDContractforDifferenceCHPCombinedHeatandPowerCPFCarbonPriceFloorCPSCarbonPriceSupportDSRDemand-SideResponseEEPEnergyandEmissionsProjectionsEfWEnergyfromWasteEUETSEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingS
8、ystemFiTFeed-inTariffFOAKFirstofaKindHHVHigherHeatingValuekWKilowattkWhKilowatt-hourLCOELevelisedCostofElectricityLHVLowerHeatingValueMWMegawattMWhMegawatt-hourNOAKNthofaKindNPVNetPresentValueOCGTOpenCycleGasTurbineO&MOperationsandMaintenancePPAPowerPurchaseAgreementPVPhotovoltaicWRAPWasteandResourc
9、esActionProgrammeIntroductionElectricitygenerationcostsareafundamentalpartofenergymarketanalysis,andagoodunderstandingofthesecostsisimportantwhenanalysinganddesigningpolicytomakeprogresstowardsnetzero.Thisreport,producedbytheDepartmentforEnergySecurityandNetZeropresentsestimatesofthecostsandtechnica
10、lspecificationsfordifferentgenerationtechnologiesbasedinGreatBritain.Sincethedepartmentslastreport,BEISElectricityGenerationCosts(2020) BElS Electricity Generation Costs (2020) eneration-costs-2020,wehaveupdatedkeyassumptionsthatunderlieouranalysis.Thedepartmenthas: Commissionedanexternalproviderin2
11、020toreviewassumptionsforonshorewindandlarge-scalesolarphotovoltaic(PV). Commissionedanexternalproviderin2020toreviewassumptionsforEnergyfromWaste(EfW)andAdvancedConversionTechnologies(ACT),includingwithCombinedHeatandPower(CHP). Commissionedanexternalproviderin2023toreviewassumptionsforFloatingOffs
12、horeWind(FOW)andTidalStreamEnergy(TSE). Collectedevidenceoncostsforhydrogen-firedcombinedcyclegasturbines(H2CCGT). Updatedothercross-cuttingassumptions,suchasfuelcosts,gatefeesandcarbonprices.Allotherassumptionsremainthesameasinthe2020reportunlessotherwisestated.Inthisreportweconsiderthecostsofplann
13、ing,construction,operation,andcarbonemissions,reflectingthecostofbuilding,operatinganddecommissioningagenericplantforeachtechnology.Potentialrevenuestreamsarenotconsidered,exceptforheatrevenuesforCHPplants(seesection3).MostcostsinthisreportarepresentedasIevelisedcosts,whichisameasureoftheaveragecost
14、perMWhgeneratedoverthefulllifetimeofaplant.Allestimatesarein2021realvaluesunlessotherwisestated.1.evelisedcostsprovideastraightforwardwayofconsistentlycomparingthecostsofdifferentgeneratingtechnologieswithdifferentcharacteristics,focusingonthecostsincurredbythegeneratoroverthelifetimeoftheplant.Howe
15、ver,thesimplicityofthemeasuremeansthattherearefactorswhicharenotconsidered,includingatechnologysimpactonthewidersystemgiventhetiming,location,andothercharacteristicsofitsgeneration.Forexample,aplantbuiltalongdistancefromcentresofhighdemandwillincreasetransmissionnetworkcosts,whilea,dispatchable,plan
16、t(onewhichcanincreaseordecreasegenerationrapidly)willreducethecostsassociatedwithgridbalancingbyprovidingextrapowerattimesofpeakdemand.Ananalysisoftheimpactofthesewider,enhancedIevelisedcostswerepresentedinour2020report.Generationcostsareusedasinputstothedepartmentsanalysis,includingthesettingofAdmi
17、nistrativeStrikePricesettingforContractsforDifferenceallocationrounds.Theseassumptionsarereviewedateachallocationround.However,itisimportanttonotethatIevelisedcostsarenotthesameasstrikeprices.Strikepricesincludeadditionalconsiderations,suchasmarketconditions,revenuesforgenerators,andpolicyfactors,wh
18、icharenotconsideredinIevelisedcosts.Todate,theyhavealsotypicallybeenexpressedin2012prices,whereastheIevelisedcostsreportedherearein2021prices.ForfurtherdetailsonthedifferencesbetweenstrikepricesandIevelisedcosts,pleaseseeSection3.Thisreportisstructuredasfollows: Section1providesanoverviewofhowIeveli
19、sedcostsarecalculated,aswellassomeoftheuncertaintiesaroundprojectingthecostsoffuturegeneration. Section2outlinesthechangestocostassumptionsthatwehavemadeinourmostrecentreview. Section3outlineshowthedepartmentusesgenerationcostdatainitsmodelling,includingthelinksbetweengenerationcostsandstrikeprices.
20、 Section4presentsselectedIevelisedcostestimatesgeneratedusingthedepartmentsLevelisedCostModelandtechnology-specifichurdlerates. Section5discussespeakingtechnologies,presentinganalternativemetrictoIevelisedcostsona/kWbasis.FurtherdetailonthedataandassumptionsusedcanbefoundintheKeyDataandAssumptionssp
21、readsheetpublishedalongsidethisreportinAnnexA.AnnexAalsocontainsIevelisedcostestimatesforarangeoftechnologiesfor2025,2030,2035and2040.UncertaintyAswithanyprojection,thereisinherentuncertaintywhenestimatingcurrentandfuturecostsofelectricitygeneration.WhilethedepartmentconsidersthattherangesofIevelise
22、dcostestimatespresentedinthisreportarerobustforthedepartmentsanalysis,theseestimatesshouldalsobeusedwithcaregivenuncertaintiesaroundthefuturecostofgeneration.Theseuncertaintiesincludethepotentialforunanticipatedcostreductionsinlessmaturetechnologies,greateruncertaintyfortechnologieswherethedepartmen
23、thaveaccesstolessdetailedevidence,uncertaintyaroundfuturenetworkcosts,anduncertaintyaroundfossilfuelpricesandcarbonvalues.Theassumptionsinallgenerationcostparametersarenotprojectspecific.Instead,theyareintendedtoprovideabroadorderofmagnitudetocomparetechnologies.Toillustratethepotentialeffectsofthes
24、euncertainties,thereportpresentsrangesandsensitivityanalysisontheeffectsofchangesinparameters.Thisreportdoesnotaccountforsomeofthepotentialeffectsofshort-termincreasesincommoditypricesandmacroeconomiccircumstancesonprojectcosts.However,thenumberspublishedareinrealprices(GDPdeflator)andthereforedoacc
25、ountforgeneralpriceinflation.ThepurposeoftheDepartmentsgenerationcostmodellingistolookatthelonger-termoutlookforgenerationcostestimatesoverthelifetimeofaplant.Thereissignificantuncertaintyabouthowlongcommoditypriceincreasesandthecurrenteconomicpressureswillpersistandthereforethisisnotfactoredintoour
26、modellingatthisstage.Wecontinuetohaveconfidenceinourassessment.Wewillmonitortheseassumptionsgoingforwardtoensurethatitisstillaccurate.Thedepartmentcontinuouslycommissionsresearchtoupdateassumptionswherethedepartmentfeelsnecessary.Asaresult,updatesinthisreporthavebeenmadetoimproveassumptionsfromearli
27、erthanBEIS,s2020publication,reflectingalonger-termdevelopmentincostassumptionsthanjustsince2020.Wewouldwelcomeviewsonwhatanglesfutureresearchshouldtake.Section1:HowIevelisedcostsarecalculatedTheLevelisedCostofElectricity(LCOE)isthediscountedlifetimecostofbuildingandoperatingagenerationasset,expresse
28、dasacostperunitofelectricitygenerated(/MWh).Itcoversallrelevantcostsfacedbythegenerator,includingpre-development,capital,operating,fuel,andfinancingcosts.Thisissometimescalledalife-cyclecost,whichemphasisestheucradletograveaspectofthedefinition.TheIevelisedcostofagenerationtechnologyistheratioofthet
29、otalcostsofagenericplanttothetotalamountofelectricityexpectedtobegeneratedovertheplantslifetime.Bothareexpressedinnetpresentvalueterms.Thismeansthatfuturecostsandoutputsarediscounted,whencomparedtocostsandoutputstoday.Becausethefinancingcostisappliedasthediscountrate,thismeansitisnotpossibletoexpres
30、sitasanexplicitpartoftheIevelisedcostsin/MWh.ThemainintentionofaIevelisedcostmetricistoprovideasimpleuruleofthumbcomparisonbetweendifferenttypesofgeneratingtechnologies.However,thesimplicityofthismetricmeanssomerelevantissuesarenotconsidered.FurtherdetailsontheconsiderationsincludedandexcludedfromIe
31、velisedcostscanbefoundinSection3.Figure1demonstratesatahighlevelhowLevelisedCostsarecalculatedandwhatisincluded.ForfurtherinformationonhowIevelisedcostsarecalculated,detailsonthecategories,andthedepartmentsLevelisedCostModel,pleaserefertosection4.2ofMottMacDonald(2010).2AnnexB,containssampleLCOEcalc
32、ulationsforanunabatedgasCCGTandanoffshorewindfarm,toillustratehowthedepartmentcalculatesIevelisedcostsinmoredetail.Figure1-OverviewofIevelisedcostcalculation Note that in this table, net electricity generation refers to gross generation minus any internal plant losses/use before electricity is expor
33、ted to the electricity network.Step1:GatherplantdataandassumptionsCapitalexpenditure(CAPEX)costsPre-developmentcosts*Constructioncosts*Infrastructurecosts*adjustedforlearningovertimeOperatingexpenditure(OPEX)costsFixedoperatingcosts*VariableoperatingcostsInsuranceConnectioncostsCarbontransportandsto
34、ragecostsDecommissioningcostsHeatrevenuesFuelpricesCarboncosts*adjustedforlearningovertimeExpectedgenerationdataCapacityofplantExpectedavailabilityExpectedefficiencyExpectedloadfactorStep2:SumthenetpresentvalueofthetotalexpectedcostsandnetgenerationforeachyeartotalCaDeXandODeXCOStSnNPVofTotalCosts=1
35、1z4.nn=timeperiod(1+discountrate)nrn.z-,c+.Unetelectricitygenerationn,.NPVofElectricityGeneration=2.n=timeperiod(1+discountrate)nStep3:DividetotalcostsbynetgenerationNPVofTotalCosts1.eVeliSedCostofElectricityGenerationEstimate=npv0fElectricityGenerationSection2:ChangestogenerationcostassumptionsWher
36、eassumptionsandtechnologieshavenotbeenmentioned,pleaseassumethattherehavebeennochangessincethepreviousreport.RenewabletechnologiesOnshorewind&solarPVThedepartmentcommissionedareportbyWSP OnShOre Wind and SOIar COSt review COStS-for-technoloies-eliible-for-contracts-for-differencetoreviewthecurrentes
37、timatesforonshorewindandsolarPV.Thishasbeensupplementedwithinternalmodellingandresearch.Asaresult,thisnewinformationhasbeenusedtoupdatethefollowingforonshorewind: Capitalcostslearningrate. 1.oadfactors.Capitalcostslearningratesandloadfactorincreasesarenowbothlinkedtoturbinesizegrowth,reflectingWSP,s
38、recommendationsandfollowingthesamemethodasusedoroffshorewind.However,thedepartmenthasalteredthesuggestedturbinetrajectoryfromWSP,insteadlimitingmaximumturbinesizeat6MW.Thedepartmentalsousedinternalupdatestomodelonshoreloadfactors The first version of this report (published 4,h August 2023) had a low
39、er onshore wind load factor that was updated in this version (published October 2023) to reflect internal modelling used within the department. This reduces the LCOE.Table1-TurbineassumptionsforonshorewindCommissioningyearProjectedturbinesizeMWProjectedloadfactor5(netofavailability)1.oadfactors,defi
40、nedasexpectedannualgenerationasapercentageoftheoreticalmaximumgeneration,aremodelledtoincreasewithturbinesize.Largerturbinesareexpectedtoproducehigherloadfactorsforseveralreasons,mostimportantlythatlargerturbinescanaccesshigherwindsduetotheirincreasedheight,andthatawindfarmwithfewer,largerturbinesha
41、sincreasedefficiency.DetaileddiscussionoftheserelationshipscanbefoundinareportforthedepartmentbyDNVGLEnergy2035.Futureloadfactorswerecalculatedbycombiningatheoreticalturbinepowercurve(poweroutputasafunctionofwindspeed,modelledusingturbinespecificationsprovidedbymanufacturers)withhourlywindspeeddataf
42、romexistingoffshorewindsites.Thepre-developmentandconstructioncostsarethetotalcostofconstruction.Table2-Maincostassumptionsforonshorewind2025203020352040TotalPre-development(m)6666TotalConstruction(m)56545454FixedO&M(/MW/year)25,40025,50025,70025,900VariableO&M(EZMWh)6666Loadfactor5(netofavailabilit
43、y)45%48%48%48%Operatingperiod(years)25252525ForsolarPV,thefollowingassumptionshavebeenupdated,reflectingWSP,srecommendations: Plantcapacity. Constructiontimings. Constructionandinfrastructurecosts. Pre-licensing,technicalanddesigncosts. Variableoperatingcosts.Table3-MaincostassumptionsforsolarPV2025
44、203020352040TotalPre-development(m)1111TotalConstruction(m)7654FixedO&M(E/MW/year)6,0005,6005,3004,900VariableO&M(/MWh)-Loadfactor(netofavailability)11%11%11%11%Operatingperiod(years)35353535OffshorewindThedepartmenthasanalysedrecentchangesinoffshoretechnologyandupdatedturbineassumptionsandloadfacto
45、rsforoffshorewind,increasingboththeexpectedloadfactorsandturbinesizesincomparisontothepreviousElectricityGenerationCostsReportpublication.Aswithonshorewindmodelling,capitalcostslearningratesandloadfactorincreasesarebothlinkedtoturbinesizegrowth.Wehaveassumedthatthe/MWcapitalcostsdecreaseovertimewith
46、thesizeoftheturbineduetoeconomiesofscale.Table4-TurbineassumptionsforoffshorewindCommissioningyearProjectedturbinesizeProjectedloadfactor(netofavailability)Table5-Maincostassumptionsforoffshorewind2025203020352040TotalPre-development(m)130410460460TotalConstruction(m)1,5001s4001,3001,300FixedO&M(/MW
47、/year)43,30042,10042,20042,400VariableO&M(/MWh)1111Loadfactor(netofavailability)61%65%69%69%Operatingperiod(years)30303030TheCrownEstateLeasingRound4InFebruary2021,theCrownEstateclosedtheirLeasingRound4(LR4),inwhichdevelopersbidintoacompetitiveauctionforan*option,todevelopaprojectontheirchosensiteinthefuture.Thisresultedin8GWofcapacitybeingawardedleasingrightsacrosssixprojectsandfourdevelopers.Theoptionfeesresultingfromthisauctionarepaidannually
