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1、McKinsey&CompanyAnaffordable,reliable,competitivepathtonetzeroAuthorsMekalaKrishnanHumayunTaiDanielPacthodSvenSmitTomasNaucIerBlakeHoughtonJesseNoffsingerDirkSimon*EditorBenjaminPlotinskyNovember2023ContentsAtaglance2Therehasbeenmeaningfulmomentumtowardnetzero4Nevertheless,theworldisnotontracktoreac
2、hnetzeroby20505Apoorlyexecutedtransitioncouldcompromiseaffordability,reliability,andcompetitivenessandslowprogresstowardnetzero9Awell-managedtransitionwouldfollowsevenprinciples14Anillustrationshowshowfollowingthoseprinciplescouldacceleratetheworldscurrenttrajectory36Embracingachangeofmindsetcanhelp
3、theworldmoveclosertoitsnet-zerogoals41Cover image: Sam Falner All interior images: Getty ImagesCopyright 2023McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Confidential and proprietary. Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company ISStrictIyprohibited.Technicalappendix43Acknowl
4、edgments46Ataglance-Thoughtherehasbeenmeaningfulmomentum,theworldisnotontracktoachievethegoalenshrinedintheParisAgreementoflimitingwarmingtowellbelow2orideally1.5.Tomeetthatgoal,countriesandcompanieshavecommittedtoreachingnet-zeroemissionsofCO2andreducingemissionsofothergreenhousegases.Buttherehasno
5、tbeenenoughprogress.Theshareofprimaryenergyproducedbyrenewablesources,forexample,hasrisenslowly,from8percentin2010to12percentin2021.Ifemissionsstayontheircurrenttrajectory,estimatesfromvarioussourcessuggest,netzerowouldnotarriveevenbytheendofthecentury.- Asuccessfulnet-zerotransitionwillrequireachie
6、vingnotoneobjectivebutfourinterdependentones:emissionsreduction,affordability,reliability,andindustrialcompetitiveness.Apoorlyexecutedtransitioncouldmakeenergy,materials,andotherproductslessaffordable,compromisingeconomicempowerment.Itcouldalsomakethesupplyofenergyandmaterialslesssecureandresilient,
7、anditcouldrendersomecountriesandcompanieslesscompetitive.Ifthathappened,progresstowardnetzeroitselfcouldstall.- Ourresearchhasfoundpracticalwaystoaddressthoseobjectivessimultaneously.Sevenprinciplescanhelpstakeholderssuccessfullynavigatethenextphaseofthetransition.Forexample,deployinglower-costsolut
8、ionsanddrivingdownthecostofmoreexpensiveonescouldbolsteraffordability.Managingexistingandemergingenergysystemsinparallelcouldmakeaccesstoenergymorereliable.Seekingopportunitiesbyusingcomparativeadvantageasaguidecouldhelpcountriesbolstertheircompetitiveness.- Followingthoseprinciplescouldsubstantiall
9、yimprovetheworldscurrenttrajectory.Weexaminedthepotentialimplicationsofapplyingtwoprinciples:deployingmorelower-costsolutionsandusingR&Dandothermeasurestodoubletheexpectedrateofcostdeclines.Ourillustrativeanalysesfoundthatdoingsocouldsubstantiallyimprovethecurrenttrajectoryofemissionsandhelplimitwar
10、mingtowhattheParisAgreementenvisions.Capitalspendingonlow-emissionstechnologieswouldpotentiallybeoneandahalftotwotimesaslargeasitisnowasopposedtoaboutthreetimes,asmightbethecaseifthetwoprincipleswereappliedlessextensively.- Embracingachangeofmindsetcanhelptheworldmoveclosertonetzero,inadditiontoglob
11、alcommitmentstoreachnetzerointhefuture,stakeholdersshouldcommittomakingmoreandmoreprogresseveryyearanddoingsoinawaythataddressesallfourobjectives.IntroductionToday,theworldisundertakingthenet-zerotransition,anambitiousefforttoreachnet-zeroemissionsofCO2andreduceemissionsofothergreenhousegases(GHGs).
12、ThegoalofthetransitionisoutlinedintheParisAgreementadoptedattheUnitedNationsin2015：tolimitglobalwarmingabovepreindustriallevelstowellbelow2.0oC,andideallyto1.5.Doingsowouldreducetheoddsofinitiatingthemostcatastrophicimpactsofclimatechange. See Global worming of 1.5X, Intergovernmental Panel on Clima
13、te Change (IPCC), 2018.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),limitingwarmingto1.50CwouldrequirereducingGHGemissionsby43percentbetween2019and2030andcuttingnetemissionsofCO2tozerobyaround2050. Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change, IPCC, 2022.,See Technical dialogue of
14、the first global stocktake: Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, September 2023.ButtheefforttomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreementisnotcurrentlyontrack,asarecentreportfromtheUnitedNationsshows?Manypublicandprivateactors,
15、aspiringtomeetthosegoals,areworkingtousherinthetransitionsnextphase,oneinwhichmorecapitalflowstowardthetransitionandthedeploymentofnecessarytechnologiesexpandssubstantially.Often,thetransitionisenvisionedasasinglegreatchallenge:reducingemissionsfromenergy,materials,andland-useandothersystems.Inpract
16、ice,itconsistsoffourobjectives:emissionsreduction,affordability,reliability,andindustrialcompetitiveness. Affordability is a particularly important priority. Recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has found that 4.7 billion people are not yet economically empoweredthat is, they can
17、not meet essential needs and begin to achieve financial security. For details, including more about that definition of economic empowerment, see From poverty to empowerment: Raising the bar for sustainable and indusive growth, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2023.Ifachievingthefirstofthoseobjec
18、tivesrisksCompromisingtheOtherthree,momentumtowardnetzerocouldbederailed.Inthisreport,weoutlineprinciplesthatcanguidestakeholdersinaddressingallfourobjectivessimultaneouslyandevenhelpacceleratetheprogressofthetransition. This research focuses on the net-zero transition. Adaptation to climate charge
19、is another important part of the climate agenda. The subject is outside the scope of this report but will be explored in upcoming research by MGLTherehasbeenmeaningfulmomentumtowardnetzeroTheworldhasmadeheadwayinreducingemissions.Today,net-zerocommitmentshavebeenmadebymorethan8,000companiesandbycoun
20、triesrepresenting90percentofglobalGDP;also,150countrieshavepledgedtoreducemethaneemissions. Race to zero campaign/ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2023; Data explorer/ Net Zero Tracker, 2023; “Global methane pledge: From moment to momentum/ US Department of State, November 202
21、2.Climatepolicyandlegislationhavebecomeincreasinglyambitious.Andcallsaregrowingtokeepthetransitionfromdisproportionatelyaffectingthedevelopingworldandvulnerablecommunities. For example, see UNCTAD urges channelling net-zero finance to support the energy transition in developing economies/ United Nat
22、ions Conference on Trade and Development, October 17, 2023.Thegoodnewsisnotlimitedtocommitmentsandlaws;solid,measurableprogressisbeingmadeaswell.Innovationhasmademanynewtechnologiesmoreviable.Forexample,solarpowerandwindpoweraccountformorethan10percentofelectricitygenerationand75percentofnewelectric
23、itygeneratingcapacity.* Growth in renewables achieved despite energy crisis/ International Renewable Energy Agency, March 2023; and rtRenewabIes/ International Energy Agencyr July 2023. rtrEIectric vehicles/ International Energy Agency, July 2023; and Global EV outlook 2022, International Energy Age
24、ncy, May 2022.Electricvehicles(EVs)makeupabout15percentofnewvehiclesales,andtherangeoftheaverageEVhasincreasednearlythreetimesduringthepastdecade?Large-scaleplantsarebeingbuiltforsuchnewertechnologiesaslow-emissionssteelproductionandcarboncapture,utilization,andstorage(CCUS).Businessesarestartingtor
25、eallocateresourcesfromhigh-emissionstolow-emissionsproducts. Rob Blandz Anna Granskog, and Tomas Naud6rf Accelerating toward net zero: The green business building opportunity/ McKinsey & Company, June 2022.Climate-relatedventurecapitalinvestmentsreached$70billionin2022,almostdoublethe2021amount.llwD
26、efying gravity, 2022 climate tech VC funding totals $70.16, up 89% on 2021/ HoIonICb January 3, 2023.Theglobalfinancialsectorisstrengtheningitsresponsetoclimatechange;annualglobalinvestmentintransitiontechnologieshasdoubled,from$660billionin2015tomorethan$1trilliontoday. Global landscape of renewabl
27、e energy finance 2023t International Renewable Energy Agency and Climate Policy Initiative, 2023.Andnewmarketinstruments,suchasadvancemarketcommitments,areemergingtospurinnovation. For example. Frontier Climate has already helped put in place prepurchase agreements for COj removals that WiiL once th
28、e technologies are developed, remove more than 2r0 tons of CO2 emissions.Nevertheless,theworldisnotontracktoreachnetzeroby2050Despiteallthatgoodnews,numerousestimates,includingarecentonefromtheUnitedNations,showthatemissionsarenotontracktoreachnetzeroemissionsofCO2by2050which,mostestimatessuggest,wo
29、uldbeneededtolimitwarmingto1.5C.wWeexamined23currentpolicywscenariosfromtheIPCC,McKinsey,sGlobalenergyperspective2023,theNetworkforGreeningtheFinancialSystem(NGFS),andtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).sInnoneofthescenariosdoglobalemissionsofCO2reachnetzero,evenbytheendofthecentury(Exhibit1).IntheIPC
30、Cscenarios,themedianlevelofwarmingbytheendofthecenturyis2.9oC,andinthemorerecentMcKinsey,NGFS,andIEAscenarios,itis2.3oC,2.8,and2.4C,respectively.16Technicaldialogueofthefirstglobalstocktake:Synthesisreportbytheco-facilitatorsonthetechnicaldialogue.UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,Sept
31、ember2023.TheIPCChasfoundthattolimitglobalwarmingto1.5,Cwithnoorlimitedovershoot(withagreaterthan50percentprobability),GHGemissionswouldhavetobereducedby43percentby2030andcarbondioxideemissionsbyabout100percentby2050inrelationtomodeled2019emissionslevels.(Eachofthosevaluesisthemedianoftheestimatesin
32、variousscenarios.)SeeClimatechange2022:Mitigationofclimatechange,IPCC,2022.SeeAR6ScenarioExplorerandDatabasehostedbyIIASA/InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,2022;Globalenergyperspective2023,McKinsey&Company,October2023;NGFSclimatescenariosforcentralbanksandsupervisorsPhaseIV,NetworkforG
33、reeningtheFinancialSystem,November2023;andWorldenergyoutlook2023,InternationalEnergyAgency,October2023.TeIPCCscenariosrepresentpoliciesasof2020.TheMcKinsey,NGFS,andIEAscenariosrepresentmorerecentpolicies.OtherresearchbytheIPCC1reportingthemedianofwarmingoutcomesin29scenarios,hasfoundthatwarmingbythe
34、endofthecenturycouldreach3.2,Cabovepreindustriallevels.SeeClimatechange2023synthesisreport,IPCC,2023.Awiderangeofscenariosshowsthatiftheworldstaysonitscurrenttrajectory,netzerowillnotarriveduringthiscentury.GlobalCOyemissionsbyscenario,See The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could b
35、ring, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2022.metricgigatonsProjectedwarmingabovepreindustriallevels,C1.52.0to2.52.5to3.03.0-3.5Projected80-60-NGFSNetZero(PhaseIV)IEAStatedPolicies(Worldenergyoutlook2023McKinseyGEPCurrentTrajectory(Globalenergyperspective2023)NGFSCurrentPolicies(PhaseIV)IEANet-ZeroE
36、missionsby2050(Worldenergyoutlook2023)20602070208020902010202020302040Actual10-Net-zeroscenariosRangeofcurrentpolicyscenariosNote:EaChlineinthechdrtrotherthanIEANet-ZeroEmissionsby2050(Woridenergyoutlook2023)andNGFSNetZero(PhaseIV),correspondstoacurrentpolicyscenario-thatis,ascenariothattriestoshoww
37、hatwillhappenunderpoliciesimplementedasof2020orlaterandwithexpectedimprovementsinlow-emissionstechnologies.Unlabeledlinesrepresentscenariosidentifiedasimplementedpolicies*intheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangesSixthAssessmentReport.IntheIEAscenarios,weaddedemsiorsfromagriculture,forestry,andothe
38、rlanduse,usingtheIEA,sstatedassumptionsforeachofthosescenarios.*NetemissionsofCOsfromenergy,materials,land-usetandothersystems.Source:PubIicJyavailabledatafromInternationalEnergyAgency(lA)iNetworkforGreeningtheFinancialSystem(NGFS)PhaseIVzand*AR6ScenarioExplorerandDatabasehostedbyIASAInternationalIn
39、stituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,2022;MCKimeVZSGlobalenergyperspective2023(GEP);McKinseyanalysisMCKimeV&CompanyOnereasonthenet-zerotransitionhasbeenslowerthanhopedisitsunprecedentedcomplexity.Itcallsfortransformingnotonlyenergysystemsbutalsomaterials,land-use,andothersystemsinshort,theglobaleconomya
40、nddoingsoinacoordinatedandintegratedway(Exhibit2).17TosuccessfullymeettheglobalgoalsenshrinedintheParisAgreementwillrequireavastincreaseintotalcapitalspenteachyear,from$5.7trillionspentonlow-andhigh-emissionstechnologiesThetransitioncallsfortransformingtheenergy,materials,land-use,andothersystemstha
41、temitgreenhousegases.WastePower24Note：Industryincludesemissionsfromindustrialprocessesforcemetrchemicals,metals,andmining,aswellasoilandgasprocessessuchasupstreamprocesses,refiningsandpipelinetransportation.Powerincludesemissionsfromelectricitygenerationandheatgeneration.Transportationincludesemissi
42、onsfromroadvehicles,rail,aviation,andmaritimetransportation.BuildingsincludesemissionsfromcookingandheatingincommercialandresidentialbuildingsAgricultureindudescropresidues,entericfermentation,fishing,manure,on*farmenergyuse,rice,andsyntheticfertilizersForestryandOtherlanduseincludesemissionsfromdra
43、inedorganicnetforestconversion(theanthropogenicconversionofsittingforestkindtootherlandusesorviceversaLfiresinorganicsoils,andfiresinhumidtropicalforests.Itdoesnotincludeemissionsfromotherforestfires(inunmanagedlands),whichrepresentroughly0.2metricggatofGHGemissions.Italsodoesnotincludenegativeemiss
44、ionsfromexistingforestland,whichrepresentaCOssinkofapproximately2.6metricgigatons.Wasteincludesemissionsfromthebiologicaltreatmentofsolidwaste,solidwastedisposalwastewatertreatmentanddischarge,andtheincinerationoropenburningofwaste.,C0se7orcarbondioxideequivalentincludesnotonlycarbondioxidebutalsoot
45、hergreenhousegases.COseiscalculatedwithameasurecalledglobalwarmingpotential,whichindicateshowmuchenergytheemissionsofonetonofagreenhousegaswillabsorbinrelationtotheemissionsofonetonofCOsoveragivenperiod-inthiscase,100years.Source:FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,rtFAOStafr;McKinseyEM
46、ITdatabase(2021);McKinseyanalysisMdCinsey&Companytodaytoasmuchas$9.2trillion,onaverage,spentoverthenextthreedecades?8Duringthatperiod,thelow-emissionspartofthatspendingwouldneedtogrowfromapproximately$1.5trillionperyearnowtoabout$7.0trillion,onaverage.sa Even after expected increases in spending res
47、uItir from current policies and income growth are accounted for, the necessary increase in total high- and low-emissions spending would be large at $1 trillion. The $9.2 trillion estimate is based on a net-zero scenario from the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) that limits warming by
48、 21 to 1.5oC above preindustrial levels. In quantifying investment, we Inciude What is typically considered investment in national accounts, such as Investment in solar and wind power capacity, as well as some spending on what are typically nsldered consumer durables, such as electric vehicles. The investment numbers take into consideration energy, materials, and land-use systems that account for roughly 85 percent of overall COi emissions today. These estimates are higher than others in the literature because we have included spending on high-emissions technolo
