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1、INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDIMFCountryReportNo.24/14KENYASE1.ECTEDISSUESJanuary2024ThispaperonKenyawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember22,2023.Cop
2、iesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfromInternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicationsimf.orgWeb:Price:$18.00perprintedcopyInternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.2024InternationalMonetaryFundDecember22,2023Appr
3、ovedByAfricanDepartmentINTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDKENYASE1.ECTEDISSUESPreparedByValerioCrispoltiandSouvikGupta(bothAFR),andSybiHida(FAD),undertheguidanceofHaimanotTeferra(missionhead,AFR)assistedbyMireilleNsanzimanafFrancineNyankiye,andFernandoMoranArce(allAFR).CONTENTSBENCHMARKINGTAXPERFORMANCEINKEN
4、YA4A. AnatomyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinEACCountries4B. Conclusion13FIGURES1. Tax-to-GDPRatio52. CompositionofTax-to-GDPRatio53. Tax-to-GDPRatios54. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeandCountryOver1988-202295. NetFrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeandCo
5、untryOver1988-2022106. ShareofTaxMeasuresinaPackage117. CompositionofTaxPackages118. Co-occurrenceofChangestoTaxPolicyandAdministrativePracticesinReformPackagesbyTypeofChangeOver1988-2022129. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTypeofChangeOver1988-20221310. NetFrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdmin
6、istrativeChangesbyTypeofChangeOver1988-20221311. NetFrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesOver2009-2214TAB1.ES1. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinEACCountries*EconomiesOver1988-2022_72. FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeOver1988-20228APPENDIXI.TablesandFigures15
7、ASSESSINGPUB1.ICSECTORBA1.ANCESHEETVU1.NERABl1.rnES23A. Introduction23B. APublicSectorBalanceSheetApproach25C. MethodologyandCoverageforKenya,sPSBS29D. PublicSectorBalanceSheetsandFiscalPolicyAnalysis33E. Caveats35F. ConclusionandRecommendations35BOX1. FiscalStatistics24FIGURES2. CurrentCoverageofPu
8、blicSector263. BudgetDeficit264. PublicSectorCompensationofEmployees,FY201920-202223275. GeneralGovernmentCompensationofEmployees,Average2017-21,andforKenyaFY202223276. SAGAs/SCsProfitand1.oss,FY202122287. SAGAs/SCsProfitand1.oss,FY202223288. CoverageofthePublicSectorBalanceSheet309. PublicSectorBal
9、anceSheetzFY2022233110. PublicSectorNetWorthofSelectedCountries,VaryingYears3211. PublicSectorBalanceSheet33TAB1.E1.DividendsandTaxesPaidbySAGAsandPublicCorporations27ANNEXESI.HMTreasury,UnitedKingdom:PublicSectorBalanceSheetFramework3811.EstimatedPublicSectorBalanceSheetMethodologyandSourceofDataon
10、Kenya40References42QUANTIFYINGEXCHANGERATEPASSTHROUGHTOINF1.ABON43A. Introduction43B. EstimationandOutput44C. Conclusion49FIGURES1. ExchangeRates432. HeadlineInflation433. AccumulatedResponseofInflationtoExchangeRateShock464. HeadlineInflationStructuralVarianceDecomposition465. ExchangeRatePassthrou
11、ghEstimatesUsingRollingRegressions476. AccumulatedResponseofInflationtoExchangeRateShocks487. CumulativeResponseofPolicyRatetoInflationShock498. PolicyRateStructuralVarianceDecomposition49ANNEXI.TechnicalAnnex50References54BENCHMARKINGTAXPERFORMANCEINKENYA1Thisnoteexaminestaxpolicyandadministrativec
12、hangesinEasternAfricanCommunity(EAC)countrieswithaviewtobenchmarkKenyasexperienceanddrawlessonsforfuturetaxreforms.UsinggranulardatafromanewIMFdatabaseontaxmeasuresannouncedduring1988-2022,itconcludesthatEACpolicymakersfrequentlychangedtheirtaxsystemandadministrationsbyannouncingtaxpackagesthattypic
13、allyconsistedofmeasurestonarrowthetaxbase(e.g.lexemptions,deductions)andstrengthentaxadministrativepractices(e.g.,electronicpayments,taxcompliancestrategy).KenyaappearedtobeoneoftheEACcountriesthatmostfrequentlyannouncedandintroducedsuchchanges,whichmighthaveplayedasignificantroleinexplainingtheredu
14、ctioninthetax-to-GDPratioexperiencedbythecountrysince2014.Theconclusionsofthisnotearesubjecttocaveatsasthefrequencyoftaxmeasuresisnotanindicatoroftheactualrevenueimpactofsuchmeasures.1.ookingatthefrequencyofchanges,however,canhelpidentifyreformepisodesprovidingasenseoftheirdurationandcomprehensivene
15、ss.A.AnatomyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinEACCountries1. Kenya,stax-to-GDPratiohasbeenonadownwardtrajectoryoverthepastdecade(Figure1).Afterreachingapeakat15.5percentofGDPin2014,taxrevenuessteadilyfellto13.1percentofGDPin2020mainlyreflectingthedeclineinincometaxesfrom8.0percentofGDPin2014to6.5
16、percentofGDPin2020(Figure2).Duringthepandemic(2020-22)thetaxratioinitiallyfellfurtherincludingduetotheintroductionoftaxbreakstocushiontheimpactoftheshockontheeconomyandthenstartedreboundingastheauthoritiesbroadenedthetaxbaseconsistentwiththeobjectivesofthecurrentEFF/ECFarrangementswithKenya(approved
17、inApril2021)andreversedthetax-relatedCOVID-19measuresonJanuaryI12022.Thetax-to-GDPratioisexpectedtoreach14.4percentofGDPin2023astheauthoritiesimplementtheirambitious2023FinanceAct,whichintroducesabout1.5percentofGDPinnewtaxpolicyandadministrativemeasures(IMFCountryReport,CR/2023/266),togetherwithadd
18、itionalrevenuemeasures(SRU17).2. KenyastaxperformancecontrastswiththatofmostcountriesintheEasternAfricanCommunity(EAC).PreparedbyValerioCrispolti(AFR),withinputsfromA.CebreiroGomez(FAD).EACcountriesareKenya,Uganda,Tanzania,Rwanda,Burundi,theDemocraticRepublicofCongo,andSouthSudan.Somaliabecametheeig
19、htEACmemberinNovember2023andisnotincludedinthisstudy.KenyaistheonlyEACcountrythatexperiencedaprotractedfallinitstax-to-GDPrat100verthelastdecade(Figure3).ArecentIMFtechnicalreportlookingatthedriversofKenyastaxcollectioninrecentdecadesconcludedthattaxperformancereflectedpoliciesthatledtoanerosionofth
20、etaxbaseandanincreasingcontributiontogrowthofsectorslightlytaxed(e.g.,agriculture,infrastructure).ExceptforSouthSudanandtheDemocraticRepublicofCongo(oilexporters),theotherEACcountrieshaveshowneitherincreasingorrelativelystabletax-to-GDPratiosoverthesameperiod.WhileremainingabovetheEACaverage,Kenyast
21、ax-to-GDPratiohasmovedfrombeingthehighestamongtheEACcountriesin2012-15(averagevalues)tobeingsignificantlybelowthatofRwandaandBurundiinrecentyears.Figure2.Kenya:CompositionofTax-to-GDPRatioFigure1.Kenya:Tax-to-GDPRatio(InpercentofGDP)Figure3.EACCountries:Tax-to-GDPRatios(InpercentofGDP;averagevalues)
22、SouthTanzaniaUgandaCongo,SudanDemocraticRepublicofKenyaBurundiRwanda(InpercentofGDP；Source:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlookdatabase.3. ArecurringquestioniswhetherKenyastaxperformancehasreflectedfundamentallydifferenttaxpolicydecisionscomparedtothoseinotherEACeconomies.Whiletaxoutturnsareaffectedbyfactorsoth
23、erthantaxdecisionssuchasmacroconditions(e.g.,growth,inflation,internationalprices)andbehavioralresponses(e.g.,anticipationeffects),taxdecisionsareunderthecontrolofpolicymakersandmaybeoneofthesourcesofchangesinthemacroandbehavioralconditions.Thereisthereforemeritinlookingatthetypeoftaxdecisionsannoun
24、cedandimplementedtogetasenseofwhatcountrieshavedoneandwhetherthenatureofsuchchangesvariedsystematicallyacrossEACeconomies.Taxdecisionshavedirecteffectsoncollectionthroughchangesinthetaxrates,non-rateaspectsofthetaxdefiningthetaxbase(e.g.,exemptions),andadministrativeprocedures(e.g.lwithholdingproced
25、ures).Taxdecisionshavealsoindirecteffectsoncollectionthroughtheirimpactoncompliancebecausethesedecisionsmayentailsignificantadjustmentcostsattheleveloftaxadministration(e.g.,enforcementandadministrationcosts)andofthetaxpayers(e.q,compliancecosts).Taxdecisionsaffectindirectlycollectionthroughtheireff
26、ectoneconomicactivityanddemand(e.g.,reducingdisposableincome,introducingincentivestopaytaxes).4. AnewIMFdatabaseontaxpolicyandadministrativechangesinEACeconomiescanshedlightonthenatureoftaxchangesinEACcountries.Thedatabaseprovidesgranularinformationondifferentdimensionsoftaxpolicyandadministrativech
27、angesannouncedandadoptedinEACeconomiesovertheperiod1988-2022(TableA.l).ThesourceofinformationisthenewsclipspreparedbytaxexpertsfromtheImemCtionalBUaeaUOfFiSCalDoCUmCntationFTheinnovationofthedatabaseisthatitsystematicallydocumentsthedirectionofchanges(i.e.,INCREASE/DECREASE)inthetaxpolicy(RATE,BASE)
28、andadministrativepractices(ADMIN)ofsevendifferenttaxes-personalincometax(PIT),corporateincometax(C),valueaddedandsaletaxes(VAT)/socialsecuritycontributionsandpayrolltaxes(SSC),excise(EXE),tradetaxes(TRADE),andpropertytaxes(PRO).Foreachtaxchange,thedatabasealsoprovidesinformationonthetimingofthechang
29、e(announcementandimplementationdates,i.e.,mm/dd/yyyy),thetypeofchange(i.e.,taxrate,taxbase,administrativepractice),thecategoryofeachtypeofchange(e.g.,toprate,exemption,taxcompliance),andwhetherthetaxchangeisannouncedaspartofabroaderpackageoftaxpolicyandadministrativemeasures(TableA.2-A.3).Thenewscli
30、psareavailabletoallIBFDsubscribersandcanbeaccessedthroughtheIBFDwebsite:ThedatabasedoesnotincludeSouthSudanduetodatalimitationsandhasverylimiteddatacoverageforBurundi(2012-17).EachtaxpolicyandadministrativechangeisclassifiedaccordingtodifferentcategorieswhicharelistedinTableA.3.Finally,thedatabasepr
31、ovidesquantitativeinformationontheannouncedsizeofmostratechanges,whichisgenerallyexpressedinpercentagepoints.5. EACcountrieschangedfrequentlytheirtaxpoliciesandadministration,particularlytonarrowthetaxbaseandstrengthenadministrativepractices.Changestostrengthenadministrativepracticesmainlyreflectmea
32、surestoimprovetaxcompliance.AdministrativemeasuresarecategorizedaccordingtomainperformanceareasofTADATincludingareasofincludetheintegritytaxpayerbase;filingtaxdeclarations;paymentsoftaxes;riskmanagementdisputeresolution;revenuemanagement;andotherpractices.During1988-2022,theyannounced1,845changesequ
33、ivalenttoanaverageofabout13taxpolicyandadministrativechangesinayear(Table1,TableA3).Themajorityofthesechangesconsistedoftaxbasechanges(about43percentoftotalidentifiedchanges),followedbytaxadministrativechanges(about36percent)andtaxratechanges.Thedirectionofthesechangesgenerallyvariedwiththetypeofcha
34、nge.Typically,taxbasechangesconsistedofbase-narrowingmeasures(about60percentoftotalBASEchanges),whileadministrativechangeswereoverwhelminglyintendedtostrengthencurrentpractices(80percentoftotalADMINchanges).Inthesample,announcementsoftaxratehikeswereequallyfrequentthanratereductions.Taxpolicymeasure
35、s(i.e.,changesintaxratesand/ortaxbases)representedabout65percentofthetotalchangesandtypicallyentailedareductioninthetaxpayersliabilities(56percentoftotaltaxpolicychanges).ThissuggeststhattheaverageEACcountryinthesamplegenerallyintroducedacombinationofmeasurestorealigntaxratesacrossdifferenttaxes(e.g
36、.,unificationofexcise/customrates),Thismight,forexample,reflecttheintentiontoimprovethefairnessofthetaxsystemorlimittaxelusion.ThelowfrequencyoftaxchangesinBurundialsoreflectsthelimiteddatacoverageinthedatabase(TableA.1).andallowsometaxbasenarrowing(e.g.,extensionofexemptions/deductions)whileimprovi
37、ngtaxadministrativepractices.CountryTypeofchangeDecrease/kxenIncrease/strengthenTotalDweaselocenIncrease/strengthenTotalfrequencyshareoftotal3SADMlN391571965.923.929.9BASE18S8S27028.213X)41.2RATE63651289.69919.5Total287X)759443846890.5ADMIN3333Og5Q5X)BASE28346243529.5RATE4812061.28Total32751074.911.
38、416.3IjADMIN1143541.7668-2BASE2535603AS39J1.RATE710171.l1.5Z6Total43881316613420.0ADMIN1837552.75f8.4BASE281846432.77RATE151328232043Total61681299310.419.7ADMIN32101133491S420.3BASE977717414.8H.726.5RATE665812410.18818.9Total19S23643129.736X)65.7卜ADMIN311541854723.528.2BASE977917614.812X26.8RATE4745
39、92726S14.0Total17527845326l742.469.1EACtotalADMIN131S2S6567.128.535.6BASE4603287824.917342.7RATE2021$940110.91。821.7Total7931.0S2lv84S43.057j0100.0Table1.EACCountries:FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesinTheirEconomiesOver1988-2022Source:IMFcalculationsonnewsclipsfromtheInternatiOnalBUreaUO
40、fFiSCalDoCUmematiOn(IBFD).6. Aggregateinformationontaxmeasureshowevermaskssignificantcross-countryheterogeneity(Table1).During1988-2022,policymakersinKenyaweresignificantlymoreactivethaninothercountries,announcing594taxpolicyandadministrativechanges,equivalenttoanaverageofabout18changesinayear(Table
41、A.4).BycontrasttheleastactivecountrieswereBurundiandRwandawithrespectively107and129changes,equivalentonaverageto9changesperyear.WhileinallEACeconomies(exceptRwandaandUganda)taxchangesprimarilyconsistedofbasechanges,Kenyawastheonlycountryinthesamplewherebase-narrowingmeasureswereannouncedmorefrequent
42、lythanmeasurestostrengthenadministrativepractices(31versus26percentoftotaltaxmeasuresannouncedinthecountry).Kenyawasalsotheonlycountryinthesamplewherethefrequencyoftaxpolicychanges(eithertaxrateortaxbasemeasures)introducingareductionintaxpayersliabilities(e.g.zratecuts,increaseinexemptions)exceeded6
43、0percentoftotaltaxpolicychanges(52percentforEACexcludingKenya).Whilethefrequencyoftaxmeasuresisnotanindicatoroftheactualrevenueimpactofataxmeasure(i.e.,itdoesnotcarryinformationonthesizeofthemeasure),itdoesprovideanindicationofthelikelydirectionofchangeintaxcollectionifspecificmeasuresaresustainedov
44、ertime(i.e.,frequentintroductionofbase-narrowingmeasureswouldresultinanerosionofthetaxbase).7. EACpolicymakersfrequentlynarrowedthetaxbasesofCITandVATandraisedexciserates,whilestrengtheningtheadministrationofthesetaxes(Table2).ThemostfrequentchangesweretoCIT(24percentoftotaltaxmeasures)followedbyVAT
45、(20percent)andexcise(16percent).AbouthalfoftheCITandVATmeasuresconsistedoftaxbasechanges,while49percentofexcisemeasuresentailedratechanges.MeasurestochangetheadministrationofCITandVATaccountedforlittlemorethanoftotalchanges,whereaschangestotheadministrationofexcisewererelativelyinfrequent(13percento
46、ftotalexcisechanges).BasenarrowingmeasuresaccountedforthebulkofCITandVATbasechanges(60and68percent,respectively).Bycontrast,exciseratemeasureswerepredominantlyhikesinthespecificorad-valoremrates(75percentoftotalexciseratechanges).Measurestostrengthenadministrativepracticeswerethemostcommonirrespecti
47、vefromwhetherCIT,VAT,andexciseisconsidered(averagefrequencyabove70percentoftotalrespectiveadministrativechanges).Table2.Kenya:FrequencyofTaxPolicyandAdministrativeChangesbyTaxTypeOver1988-2022vTotalchangesTaxCountofAveragetype/Change.mrocountrynumberoftype/CategoryoSerVaonsyearsmeasuresInCreaSeDeCreaSe-JxCountofAverageJ.CountofAverageNumberof.Numberof、.-untrynumberof
