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1、CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesCambridgeRiskFrameworkRISKMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVESOFGLOBALCORPORATIONSCentreforRiskStudiesUniversityofCAMBRIDGEJudgeBusinessSchlirmDevelopingriskprofessionalsAcknowledgementsCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesgratefullyacknowledgestheInstituteofRiskManagementforsupportingtherese
2、archeffortssummarisedinthisreport.TheCentreisgratefulfortheexpertiseprovidedbyourresearchteam,collaboratorsandsubjectmatterspecialists.AnymisinterpretationinuseoftheadviceprovidedisentirelytheresponsibilityoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.PaperCitation:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,2018.RiskManage
3、mentPerspectivesofGlobalCorporations.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchoolandInstituteofRiskManagement.orTuveson,M;Ralph,D;Copic,J;Majumdar,O;Deng,K.,2018.RiskManagementPerspectivesofGlobalCorporations.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeB
4、usinessSchoolandInstituteofRiskManagement.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesProjectTeamJenniferCopiczResearchAssociateKenDeng,ResearchAssistantCambridge Centre for Risk StudiesUniversity of Cambridge Judge Business SchoolTrumpington StreetCambridge, CB2 IAG United Kingdomenquiries.riskjbs.cam.ac.ukWebsit
5、e and Research Platformwww.jbs.cam.ac.uk/faculty-research/centres/riskInstitute of Risk ManagementSackville House143 -149 Fenchurch StreetLondonEC3M 6BNUnited KingdomWebsitewww.theirm.orgOliviaMajumdar,ResearchAssistantProfessorDanielRalph,AcademicDirectorDrMichelleTuveson,ExecutiveDirectorCambridge
6、CentreforRiskStudiesResearchTeamJamesBourdeau,ResearchAssistantOliverCarpenter,ResearchAssistantDrAndrewCoburn,DirectorofAdvisoryBoardDrJenniferDaffron,ResearchAssociateTimothyDouglas,ResearchAssistantTamaraEvan,ResearchAssistantKellyQuantrill,ResearchAssistantSimonRuffle,DirectorofResearchandInnova
7、tionDrAndySkeltonzSeniorRiskResearcherAndrewSmith,ResearchAssistantKaylaStrong,ResearchAssistantTheviewscontainedinthisreportareentirelythoseoftheresearchteamoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesanddonotimplyanyendorsementoftheseviewsbytheorganisationssupportingtheresearch,ororconsultantsandcollaborato
8、rs.TheresultsoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesresearchpresentedinthisreportareforinformationpurposesonly.Thisreportisnotintendedtoprovideasufficientbasisonwhichtomakeaninvestmentdecision.TheCentreisnotliableforanylossordamagearisingfromitsuse.AnycommercialusewillrequirealicenseagreementwiththeCambr
9、idgeCentreforRiskStudies.Copyright2018byCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.ContentsForewardfromIRM5ExecutiveSummary6VulnerabilitiesofCorporations62018EnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)SurveyResults6SectorConsiderationsofTopRisks8ExplorationofRisksthroughScenarioAnalysis9RiskManagementTools9TopMitigationStrate
10、gies9RoleOflnsuranceinRiskManagement9FuturePerspectives10Section 1: Introduction11Section 2: ThePresentStateofGlobalCorporations12TheGlobalisationLandscapeforCorporations12GrowthofCorporations13VulnerabilitiesofCorporations14UnderstandingaCorporationRisks15Cross-CompanyRiskAggregations15DemandingBet
11、terCulturesofCorporations17Section 3: ScopeofEnterpriseRiskManagement18Section 4: TopEnterpriseRisksFacingCorporations19ANetworkPerspectiveofTopEnterpriseRisks20SectorConsiderationsofTopRisks21TopRisk#1-Financials:Revenues,ProntszSharePrice22TopRisk#2-OperationalPerformance23TopRisk#3-Regulatory,Sta
12、ndardsandReporting24TopRisk#4-Reputation/Brand25TopRisk#5-SecurityofEnterpriseIncludingCyberSecurity27TopRisk#6-BusinessContinuityandCrisisManagement29TopRisk#7-MacroEconomicandTradeFactors30TopRisk#8-HealthandSafety31TopRisk#9-Geopolitical32TopRisk#10-HumanCapital33BottomRisk#1-GenderandDiversity34
13、Section 5: TrendRisks36ExplorationofRisksandTrendsthroughScenarioAnalysis37ApplicationsofScenarios37Section 6: RiskManagementTooIsandProcesses39RiskManagementTooIs39TopMitigationStrategies41BudgetPrioritiesforTopRisks42RoleOflnsuranceinRiskManagement42Section 7: ConclusionandFutureResearch44Appendix
14、 A: Materials,MethodsandExpertise46ResearchEngagementwithSubjectMatterSpecialists462018ERMOnlineSurvey46SurveyRespondentPronles47Appendix B: FiveTrendsDrivingMacroChanges52FutureoftheDollar52Climate&SustainabilityRegulation53GrowthofLiabilityRisk53HumanCapital,AgingandLongevity54Technology,AlandRobo
15、tics56Bibliography58AbouttheInstituteofRiskManagement(IRM)TheIRMistheleadingprofessionalbodyforEnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM).Wedriveexcellenceinmanagingrisktoensureorganisationsarereadyfortheopportunitiesandthreatsofthefuture.Wedothisbyprovidinginternationallyrecognisedqualincationsandtraining,publi
16、shingresearchandguidanceandsettingprofessionalstandards.Forover30yearsourqualincationshavebeentheglobalchoiceOfqualincationsforriskprofessionalsandtheiremployers.Weareanindependent,notforprontbody,withmembersworkinginallindustries,inallriskdisciplinesandinallsectorsaroundtheworld.ForewordfromIRMWear
17、edelightedtohavehadtheopportunitytosupporttheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesinproducingthisresearchintotheriskmanagementperspectivesofglobalcorporations.IRMisuniquelyplacedtobringtogetherthepracticalexperienceofourexpertmemberswiththerigourandinsightofferedbyglobalcentresofacademicexcellence.Thishelps
18、usalladvancetheunderstandingandpracticeofriskmanagementfortheultimatebenentofindividuals,organisationsandsociety.Aswehadanticipated,thisresearchpresentssomechallengesandalsoofferssomeguidancefortheprofession.Thereisclearlyagrowingawarenessofrisks(andopportunities)arisingfromdigitaltechnology,includi
19、ngcybersecurity.Wehavealsonotedthereportedscarcityofpracticaltoolstohelporganisationsanalyseandmanagesomeoftheirkeyreportedriskareas.IRMwillensurethatoureducation,trainingandprofessionalsupportevolvesswiftlytosupportthisnewenvironment.TherearesomeinterestinglessonshereaboutthevariednatureofEnterpris
20、eRiskManagement(ERM)functionsintheseglobalcorporations,mostobviouslythatthereisasyetnoacceptedviewonthemission,scopeandultimately,value,ofERM.Howeveratthesametimethereappearstobegrowingtake-upofERM-Iedapproacheslikeencouraginghealthyriskcultures,trainingandsupplychaininitiatives.Thisisaclearchalleng
21、ethatreinforcesOurdeterminationtospreadgoodpracticeandhelporganisationsbuildcompetencytomanagetheirriskseffectively.Wealsonotethattheseglobalcorporationsseerisktransferviainsuranceasanimperfectriskmitigationmeasure,withalackofrelevantproducts,capacityandtailoringcitedaslimitationsontheuseofinsurance
22、withintheirERMprogrammes.Howeverthereisopportunityherefortheinsuranceindustryandwecalloninsurerstorespondandremainrelevantbyutilisingtechnologyanddevelopingzinsurtech,solutionsinpartnershipwiththeriskprofession.Wearenowlookingforwardtothenextphaseoftheresearchin2019whichwilltakeadeeperlookatriskmana
23、gementpracticesinthevaluechainsfortheenergyandretailsector.IwouldliketothankalltheorganisationsandindividualswhocontributedtothisworkandalsotheCambridgeteamfortheirfocusedandthoroughapproach,bringingsomenewthinkingonconceptsandtechniquesintotheriskmanagementspace.SocratesCoudounaris,BEng(Hons)MScFCI
24、ICIPCFIRMIRMChairRiskManagementDirector,RGAInternationalReinsuranceCompanyExecutiveSummaryCorporationsareavitalcomponentofaneconomy.Theirhealthandwealthcanbepotentindicatorsofthebroaderstateoftherelevanteconomyandsocietyasawhole.Crisesintheprivatesectorcanprovideearlywarningindications,andoccasional
25、lyaredrivers,ofwiderandpotentiallysystemicfailures.Withinanorganisation,goodpracticesinriskmanagementservetoavoidorrespondeffectivelytocrises,whereaspoorpracticesmaysignalweaknesses.Inthisreport,weseektobetterunderstandtheriskmanagementperspectivesandpracticesofglobalcorporations.Theresearchpresente
26、dinthisreportispartoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesresearchtrackoncorporateriskpronling.InpartnershipwiththeInstituteofRiskManagement(IRM),itisinformedbyviewsfromriskmanagementspecialistsrepresentingbothprivateandpublicsectors.Thesummaryandnarrativeregardingthetoprisksfacingcorporationsaretheresul
27、tofelicitationthroughacombinationofindividualinterviews;surveysandreal-timepollsofaudiencesatworkshopsandfocusgroups;andthein-depthonline2018EnterpriseRiskManagementsurvey.Thisexpanseofinputspaintsabroadviewoftheperceptionsofriskatcompaniesandtheirrespectiveapproachestoriskmanagementandmitigation.Th
28、egeneralobjectivesofouroverallresearchprogrammesaretobetterunderstandcurrentviews,practicesandmitigationsofrisksatcorporationsandhowtheyareadaptingtomeetfuturechallengesandopportunities.Thefocusandintentionofthisreportistobetterunderstandtheperspectivesandpracticesofriskmanagementatglobalcorporation
29、s.Webelievethatregulations,mandates,structures,andcodesgoverningpubliclylistedcorporationsprovidecommonalityfortheirfoundationsforriskmanagementpractices.WealsoreferSpecincallytoglobalversusmultinationalrporationstofocusmoreontheglobalnatureofexchanges,flows,andconnectionsversuspresenceatphysicalloc
30、ationsandsites.Webelievethechallengesandcomplexitiesofriskmanagementbroughtonbythemulti-dimensionalnatureofglobaloperationsaremuchmoresignincantforthissubsetoforganisations.Whilethisreportfocussesonglobalcorporations,weexpectotherorganisationsincludingthoseinthepublicsectortonndconsiderableoverlapsa
31、ndvaluethenndings.VulnerabilitiesofCorporationsGlobaltradehasbeenoneoftheprincipaldriversofeconomicgrowthinrecentdecades.Theworldisinastateofpeakglobalisationasmeasuredbyexportsandimportsasapercentageofgrossdomesticproductfor17industrialisednations-thelowof7.5%afterWWIIjumpedto47.2%inthecurrentperio
32、d.However,thecurrentsituationisnotguaranteedtolastindennitely;withrenewedchallengestoglobalismcomingfromresurgentnationalism,protectionismandrollingbackOfinternationaltradeagreements.Corporationsmustcontendwithbothinternalandexternalrisksthatthreatentheirbusinessmodels.Theyarefacedwithcontinuingandg
33、rowingpressuresfromalargesetofstakeholdersandarekeenlyawareofthemanypotentialnegativefactorsthatcanimpactonrporateprontabilityandlongevity.TherehasbeenareductioninthenumberofUSpubliclylistedcompaniesfrom8,000inthe1990sto3z627in2017 (CRSP - The Center for Research in Security Pricesw n.d.)zandareduct
34、ionfrom23publiclylistedcompaniespermillioninhabitantsin1975to11in2016 (Stulz 2018).Morefundamentally,only200ofthetopcompaniesbyearningsaccountedforallthepromtsinthe2015USStoCkmarket.Theremaining3,281publiclylistedcompanieslostmoney. (Sommer 2018)2018EnterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)SurveyResultsThe2018E
35、nterpriseRiskManagement(ERM)surveycanvassedtotheIRM(IRM) (Institute of Risk Management/ n.d.)membershipandCambridgezSChiefRiskOfncer(CRO)andERMmmunities.Wehad264surveyrespondentsanswering85questionsinthefollowingcategories:Organisational/CompanyDescriptions,RoleinManagingRisk,RiskGovernanceandCultur
36、e,RiskManagementToolsandProcesses,CrisisResponseCapabilitiesandRiskMitigationStrategies.Thesurveyreportsvariouscharacteristicsofrespondents,companiesandroles,withoutreferencetoindividualororganisationalidentities.CompanysizebyannualsalesisreportedasfollowsinfigureA:FigureA:CompanyAnnualSalesofSurvey
37、RespondentsSurveyrespondentsalsoreportedtheirtopnvecountriesofresponsibility.ThemostrepresentedcountriesincludeUSzUK,GermanyandChina.ThesearefollowedbyAfricaandEurope,excludingGermany.Respondentsrankedtheirtoprisksfacingtheircompaniesforatwelvemonthtimehorizonasapointofreference.Thetopnverisksinthis
38、yearssurveyinclude(1)Finandalszrevenues,prontszshareprice,(2)Operationalperformance,(3)Regulatorystandardsandreporting,(4)Reputation/brand,(5)Securityofenterpriseincludingcybersecurity.WenotethatGenderanddiversityriskisrankedatthebottomofrisksbysurveyrespondentsacrossallsectors.Despiteitslowprioriti
39、sation,webelieveitsgrowingvisibilitymakesitworthhighlightinginthisreport.Seebelowforafulllistofrisksandtheirrankings.Source:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies2018ERMSurveyTopEnterpriseRisksofPotentialConcernforCompaniesintheNext12Months.Source:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies2018ERMSurvey.SeeAppendixAforind
40、exdescriptionSectorConsiderationsofTopRisksWereporttoprisksbybusinesssectorusingtheGlobalIndustryClassincationStandard(GICS)(“GICS - MSCI/z n.d.).ThetopfourenterpriserisksaredisplayedbyeachGICSsectorinthesectorviewgraphicbelow.ThetopenterprisewiderisksareheavilyrepresentedacrossmostsectorssuchasFina
41、ncialriskandReputationrisk.Howevercertainrisksaresectorspednc.AlthoughGeopoliticalriskisrelativelylowranking(9outof10)bysurveyrespondents,sectorssuchasEnergy,TelecommunicationsandMaterialsrankithighly.RegulatoryStandardsriskisthehighestriskfortheFinancialsandInformationTechnologysectorsandthesecondh
42、ighestforHealthcareandTelecommunications.SectorViewofTopEnterpriseRisksforCompanies.ENERG)(Healthsafety(20.1%)TelecoaamunicationservicesHEALTHCAREIAAATERIALSGeopolitical(34.6%)Revenues,pronts,shareprice(26%)Regulatorystandards(24.7%)Operationalperformance(28.3%)Regulatorystandards(24.6%)Environment(
43、26.9%)Healthsafety(26.9%)Revenues,pronts,shareprice(26.3%)Operationalperformance(19%)Geopolitical(24.7%)Reputation(24.7%)Reputation(23.9%)BusinessContinuity(23.2%)IhGeopolitical(23.1%)Operationalperformance(23.1%)DREALESTATEIIFINANCIALSRevenues,pntszshareprice(29.9%)Marketshare(22.1%)Regulatorystand
44、ards(29.5%)Reputation(21.7%)consumerDiscreticIARYINDUSTRIALSSecurity(27.6%)Reputation(27.1%)Operationalperformance(25.7%)BusinessContinuityReputation(31.3%)Operationalperformance(23.8%)Operationalperformance27.9%)Healthsafety(20.1%)Revenues,prontszshareprice(28.6%)Operationalperformance(20.2%)IIGoV&
45、NGO OperationalSecurity performance(25.1%) (26.2%)1INFORMATIONTECHN0LYUTILITIESHealthsafetyBusiness(32%)Continuityt)Regulatorystandards(33.6%)ILegalliabilities(20.7%)Security(23.6%)B国Reputation(25.6%)Regulatorystandards(23.1%)Security(27.6%)BusinessContinuity(18.1%)Operationalperformance(25.2%)Reven
46、ues,profits,shareprice(21.4%)Revenues,pronts,shareprice(21.3%)Source:CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies2018ERMSurveyExplorationofRisksthroughScenarioAnalysisScenarioanalysisisacommonapproachusedbymanagerstoviewtheirorganisationsinanimaginedstateandtohelpplanforuncertaintyinbothbusinessandglobalenvironmen
47、ts.Ofthesurveyrespondents,63%reportusageofscenariosaspartoftheirbusinessriskanalyses.Businessstresstestscenariosareprominentaspartofbusinesscontinuityassessmentandtraining.Longertermorstrategicscenariosaretypicalinscenarioplanning,whichlooksattheimpactofsocietalchange,drivenbyunderlyingforcesortrends,onabusiness.Scenarioapplicationareasreportedbysurveyrespondentsaresummarisedbelow:ScenarioApplicationAreasAnnualsupplierrenewalandreviewsCapitalallocationsandreviewsContentforannualreportsandviabilitystatements
