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1、CHAPTER4FOUNDATIONSOFDECISIONMAKING1.EARMNGoutcomesAfterreadingthischapter,studentsshouldbeableto:4-1.Describethedecision-makingprocess.4-2.Explainthethreeapproachesmanagerscansctomakedecisions.4-3.Describethetypesofdecisionsanddecision-makingconditionsmanagersface.44.Discussgroupdecisionmaking.4-5.
2、Discusscontemporarj,issuesinmanagerialdecisionmaking.ManagementMjlhMyth:Agooddecisionshouldbedefinedbyitsoutcome.Truth:Agooddecisionshouldbejudgedbytheprocessused,nottheresultsachieved.SUMMRYTheoverallqualityofamangcr,sdecisionsgoesalongwayindetermininganorganizationssuccessorfailure.Thischapterfocu
3、sesonthetypesofdecisionsmanagersmakeandhowhcyshouldbemade.TeaChinETips：Havestudents(hinkalx)utimportantdecisionstheyhavemaderecently.Questionsforstudentstoconsider:1. Didtheyfollowaseriesofstepstothinkthroughwhilemakingthisdecision?2. Wasthereahighdegreeofuncertainlyinvolvedinmakingthedecision?3. Wa
4、sagroupofpeopleinvolvedinmakingIhisdecision?Ifso,didIhegrouphelporhurtthedecision-makingprocess?1. HOVVDOMANAGERSMAKEDECISIONS?A. Introduction1. Decisionmakingistypicallydescribedas“choosingamongalternatives.02. Thisissimplisticbecausedecisionmakingisaprocess.a)SccExhibit4-1illustratingthedecision-m
5、akingprocess.B. Whatdefinesadecisionproblem?1. Thedecision-makingprocessbeginswiththeidentificationofaproblem(StepI),adiscrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairs.a)Pfizersalesmanagerexample.2. P11)blcmidentificationissubjective.3. Themanagerwhobymistakesolvesthewrongproblemperfectly,islike
6、lytoperformjustaspoorlyasthemanagerwhofailstoidentifytherightproblemanddocsnothing.a) Howdomanagersbecomeawarethattheyhaveadiscrepancy?b) ManagerscomparetheirCUITentstateofaffairsagainstanacceptablestandard.1) Pastperformance.2) l*reviouslysetgoals.3) Performanceofsomeotherunitwithintheorganizationo
7、rinotherorganizations.C. WhatIsRelevantintheDecision-MakingProcess?1.Onceaproblemisidentite(l.thedecisioncriteriamustbeidentified(Step2).2. Car-buyingexamplecontinued.3. Everydecisionmakerhascriteria-explicitlystaledornotthatguidehis/herdecision.a)Whatisnotidentifiedisasimportantaswhatis.D. HowDoest
8、heDecisionMakerWeighttheCriteriaandAnalyzeAlternatives?1. ItisnecessarytoallocateweightstotheitemslistedinStep2inordertogivethemtheirrelativepriorityin(hedecision(Step3).2. Asimpleapproach,give(hemostimportantcriterionaweigh!oftenandthenajsignweights(oIhcreslagainstthatstandard.a)Exhibil4-2liststhec
9、rileriaandweightsinacar-buyingdecision.3. Thenthedecisionmakerlists(healtemalivesthatCOUIdsucceedinresolvingthep11blem(Step4).a)Noattemptismadetoappraisethesealternativeonlytolistthem.4. Onceidentified,thedecisionmakermuslcriticallyanalyzeeachallernalive(Step5).a) Eachalternativeisevaluatedbyapprais
10、ingitagainst(hecriteriaandweightsestablishedinStepS2and3.1) Exhibit4-3showstheassessedvaluesforeachvehicle;itdoesnoreflecttheweightingdoneinStep3.b) Ifyoumultiplyeachalternativeassessmentagainstitsweight,yougelExhibii3-4.c) Notice(hattheweightingof(hecriteriahaschangedthe11nkingoalternativesinourexa
11、mple.E. WhatDeterminestheBestChoice?1. ThecrilicalactochoosingthebestahemalivefromamongIhOSeenumeratedandassessed(Step6).F. WhatHappensInDecisionImplementation?1. Thedecisionmaystillfailifitisnotimplementedproperly(Step7).2. Decisionimplementationincludesconveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedandgetting
12、theircmmi(11enttoit.3. ThepeoplewhomustCaITyoutadecisionarcmostlikelytoenthusiasticallyendorsetheoutcomeiftheyparticipateinthedecision-makingprocess.G. Whatisthe1.astStepintheDecisionProcess?1. Thelaststep(Step8)appraisesIhCresultofthedecisiontoseewhetherithascorrectedtheproblem.2. Didthealternative
13、choseninStep6andimplementedinStep7accomplishthedesiredresult?H. CommonErrorsCommittedintheDecision-MakingPrOCeSSI. Makingdecisionsismakingchoices.J. HeuristicsarerulesofthumbthatmanagersusetoSimPlifytheirdecisionmaking.K. Exhibit4-5identifies12commondecisionerrorsandbiasesthatmanagersmake.L. Somecom
14、monmistakes:aOverconfidencebias-theythink(heyknowmorethan(heydoorholdunrealisticallypositiveviewsofthemselvesandtheirperformance.b) Immediategruhficuiionbias-describesdecisionmakerswhotendtowantimmediaterewardsandtoavoidimmediatecosts.c) Anchoringeffect-describeswhendecisionmakersfixateoninitialinfo
15、rmationasastartingpointandthen,onceset.failtoadequatelyadjustforsubsequentinformation.d) Selectiveperceptionbias-whendecisionmakersselectivelyorganizeandinterpreteventsbasedontheirbiasedperceptions.e) Confirnuiiionbias-decisionmakerswhoseekoutinfonnationthatreaffirmstheirPaSlchoicesanddiscountinfonn
16、ationthatcontradictsasjudgments.f) Framingbias-whendecisionmakersselectandhighlightcertainaspectsofasituationwhileexcludingoilwrs.g) Availabilitybias-whendecisionsmakerstendtorc11c11bereventsthatareIhemostrecentandvividintheirmemory.h) Representationbias-whendecisionmakersassessthelikelih(lofanevent
17、basedOnhowcloselyitresemblesOIhBeventsorseisofevents.i) Randomnessbias-describeswhendecisionmakersIryIOcreatemeaningoutofrandomevenls.j) Sunkcostserror-whendecisionmakersforgetthatcurrentchoicescan,tcorrectthepast.k) Self-SerVi，以biasdecisionmakerswhoarequickIotakecreditfortheirsuccessesandtoblamefai
18、lureonoutsidefactors.l) Hindsightbias-theIendcncyfordecisionmakersIofalselybelieve(haltheywouldhaveaccuratelypredictedtheoutcomeofaneventonce(haiCIHComeisactuallyknown.11. VVHTARE3APPROACHESMNGERSCANUSETOMAKEDECISIONS?A. RationalModel1. Decisionmakingistheessenceofmanagement.Managersastheyplan,organ
19、ize,lead,andcontrol-arecalleddecisionmakers.(Exhibit4-6).2. Managerialdecisionmakingisassumedtoberational.a)Rationaldecisionmakinginvolvesmakingconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraints.3. Adecisionmakerwhowasperfectlyrationalwouldbefullyobjectiveandlogical.a) Hcorshewouldcarefull
20、ydefinetheproblemandhaveaclearandspecificgoal.b) Thestepsinthedecision-makingprocesswouldconsistentlyleadtoselectingthealternativethatmaximizesthatgoal.c) Decisionsaremadeinthebestinterestsoftheorganization.d) Guideusersthroughproblemsbyaskingthemasetofsequentialquestionsaboutthesituationanddrawingc
21、onclusionsbasedontheanswersgiven.B. BoundedRationality1. Managementtheoryisbuiltonthepremise(hatindividualsactrationally,butarelimitedbytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.2. Mostdecisionmakersdontfittheassumptionofperfectrationality.3. NooneCanposSiblyanalyzeallinformationalonallalternativessotheysati
22、sfice-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough/ratherthanspendtimeandotherresourcestryingtomaximize.a)Decisionmakingisalsolikelyinfluencedbytheorganization-sculture,internalx)litics,powerconsiderations,andbyaphenomenoncalledescalationofcommitment,whichisanincreasedCOmlnilmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevide
23、ncethatitmayhavebeenwrong.FrOnlthePaSttothePresentTechnologyandtheManagersJobMakingBetterDvcisionswithTechnology1. Expertsystemsusesoftwareprogramstoencodetherelevantexperienceofanexpertandallowasystemtoactlikethatexpertinanalyzingandsolvingill-st11ctredproblems.a) Guideusersthroughproblemsbyaskings
24、equentialquestionsaboutthesituationanddrawingconclusionsbasedonanswersgiven.b) Makedecisionseasierforusersthroughprogrammedrulesmodeledonactualreasoningprocessesofexperts.c) Allowemployeesandlower-levelmanagerscomakehigh-qualitydecisionsnormallymadeonlybyupper-levelmanagers.2. Neuralnetworksarethene
25、xtstepbeyondexpertsystems.a) UsecomputersoftwaretoimitatetheSinictureofbraincellsandconnectionsamongthem.b) Peoplecan,teasilyassimilatemorethantwoorthreevariablesatonce,butneuralnetworkscanperceivecorrelationsamonghundredsofvariables.c) Forexample,mostbankstodayuseneuralnetworkstoflagpotentialcredit
26、cardfraud.Hraudulentactivitiesonacreditcardcanbeuncoveredinamatterofhourswithneuralnetworks.DiscussThis:d) Canamanagereverhavetmuchdatawhennukingdecisions?Explain.e) Howcantechnologyhelpmanagersmakebetterdecisions?III. WHTTYPESOFDECISIONSANDDECISION-MAKINGCONDITIONSDOMANAGERSFACE?A. HowDoProblemsDif
27、fer?1. Someproblemsarcstraightforward.Thegoalofthedecisionmakerisclear,theproblemfamiliar,andinformationabouttheproblemeasilydefinedandcomplete.a)Examplesofstructuredproblemsincludeasupplierstardinesswithanimportantdelivery、acustomerswantingtoreturnanInternetpurchase,etc.2. Manysituations,however,ar
28、cunstructuredproblems,arcnew,orunusual.Informationaboutsuchproblemsisambiguousorincomplete.JOExamplesofunstructuredproblemsincludethedecisiontoenteranewmarketsegment,tohireanarchitecttodesignanewofficepark.etc.B. HowDoesaManagerMakeProgrammedDecisions?1. Programmed,orroutine,decisionmakingisthemoste
29、fficientwaytohandlestructuredproblems.2. Whenproblemsarcstructured,managersrelyonprogrammeddecisionmaking.a)Automotivemechanicexample.3. Decisionsare11gram11edIeIheextentthattheyarcreelitivearui11)utineandtoIheextentthataspecificapproachhasbeenworkedou(forhandlingthem.a) Pnigrammeddecisionmakingisre
30、lativelysimpleandtendstorelyheavilyonprevioussolutions.b) Thedevelop-the-allernalivesstageisgivenIiuleaitcntionbecauseprogrammeddecisionmakingbecomesdecisionmakingbyprecedent.4. Procedureisaseriesofinterrelatedsequentialstepsthatamanagercanusewhenrespondingtoawell-s(ruciuredproblem.a) Theonlyrealdif
31、ficultyisinidentifyingtheproblem.b) Oncetheproblemisclear,soisIheprocedure.c) Exampleofpurchasingmanagerandrequestfor250copiesofNortonAntivirusSoftware.5. AruleisanexplicitStalenientthattellsamanagerwhatheorsheoughtoroughtnottodo.a)Rulesarcf11xucntlyusedwithawell-structuredproblembecausetheyarcsimpl
32、etofollowandensureconsistency.6. Apolicyprovidesguidelinestochannelamanagersthinkinginaspecificdirection.a) Incontrasttoarule,aPOIiCyestablishesparametersforthedecisionmakerratherthanspecificallystatingwhatshouldorshouldnotbedone.b) Example,*wcpromotefromwithin,wheneverpossible.*C. HowDoNonprogrammc
33、dDecisionsDifferfromProgrammedDecisions?1. Examplesofnonprogrammeddecisions:decidingwhethertoacquireanotherorganization,decidingwhichglobalmarketsofferthemostpotential,ordecidingwhethertoselloffanunprofitabledivision.2. Suchdecisionsarcuniqueandnonrecurring,involvinganunstructuredproblemwithnocut-an
34、d-driedsolution.Thecreationofaneworganizationalstrategyisanexampleofanon-programnwddecision.a)Example.AJeiTBezos,strategyto“gelbiglast:1) Bezosstrategyto,*getbigfasthelpedthecompanygrowbutatthecostofperennialfinanciallosses.2) Tomakeaprofit.Bezosmadedecisionsaffectinghowthecompanyoperated,includinga
35、llowingothersellerstoselltheirbooksatAmazon.Forthefirstlime.Amazonmadeaprofit.D. HowareProblems,TypesofDecisions,andOrganizational1.evelIntegrated?1. Exhibit4-8describesIherelationshiphcveentypesofproblems,typesofdecisions,andlevelin(heorganization.2. Structured11)blemsarerespondedtoWilhPrOgramnlCdd
36、ecisionmaking.a)1.ower-levelmanagersesentiallyconfrontfamiliarandrepetitivep11blcms.3. Ill-structuredproblemsrequirenp11)grunmera11ldecisionsthathavefar-reachingeffectsonorganizationalactivitiesandpersonnel,aretypicallymadeingroups.2. Inmanycases,thesegroupsrepresentpeoplewhowillbemostaffecedbythede
37、cisions.3. ManagersspendasignificantPOrtiOnofheirtimeinmeetings.B. WhatArctheAdvantagesandDisadvantagesofGroupDecisionMaking?1. IndividualandgroupdecisionshaveheirownseiofStrengtlisneitherisidealforallsituations.2. Advantagesofgroupdecisionmaking:a) GrOuPdecisionsprovidemorecompleteinformation(hando
38、individualones.b) AgroupwillbringadiversityofexperiencesandPerSPeetiVeStothedecisionprocess.c) G11)upsalsogeneratemorealternatives.1) Quantityanddiversityofinfo11utionaregreaiestwhengroupmembersrepresentdifferentspecialties.d) G11updecisionmakingincreasesacceplanceofasolution.e) Thisprocessincreases
39、Iegitiniacy.3. Disadvantagesofgroupdecisionmaking:a) Theyaretime-consuming.b) Theremayalsobeasituationinwhichthereisminoritydomination.1) Membersofagrouparcneverperfectlyequal.2) Aminoritythatdominatesagroupfrequentlyhasanundueinfluenceonthefinaldecision.c) Thereisambiguousresponsibility.Inagroupdec
40、ision,theresponsibilityofanysinglememberiswatereddown.d) Anotherproblemfocusesonthesocialpressurescoconformingroups.1) IrvingJanis,groupthinkaformofconformityinwhichgroupmemberswithholddeviant,minority.orunpopularviewsinordertogivetheappearanceofagreement.2) Groupthinkhindersdecisionmaking,possiblyj
41、eopardizingthequalityofthedecisionby:(a) Underminingcriticalthinkinginthegroup.(b) Affectingagroupsabilitytoobjectivelyappraisealternatives.(c) Deterringindividualsfromcriticallyappraisingunusual,minority,orunpopularviews.eHowdoesgroupthinkoccur?1) Groupmembersrationalizeanyresistanceto(heassumption
42、stheyhavemade.2) Membersapplydirectpressuresonthosewhomomentarilyexpressdoubtsaboutanyofthegroup,ssharedviewsorwhoquestiontheargumentsfavoredbythemajority.3) Thosememberswhohavedoubtsorholddifferingpointsofviewseek(oavoiddeviatingfromwhatappearstobegroupconsensus.4) ThereisanillusionOfunaniinity.Sil
43、eiweisassumedasbeinginfullaccord.f)GroupthinkCanbeminimizedif:1) Thegroupiscohesive.2) Itfostersopendiscussion.3) Isledbyanimpartialleaderwhoseeksinputfromallmembers.C. WhenAreGroupsMostEffective?1. G11)updecisions(end(obemoreaccurate.2. Ontheaverage,g11upsmakebelterdecisionsIhanindividualsalthoughg
44、11upthinkmayoccur.3. IfdecisionCfTeCIiVCnesSisdelinedintermsofspeed,individualsaresuperior.4. Ifcreativityisimportant,groupslendIobemoreeffectivethanindividuals.5. IfeffectivenessmeansthedegreeofacceptancethattheIlnalsolutionachieves,thengroupsarebelter.6. Theeffectivenessisalsoinfluencedbythesizeof
45、thegroup.a) Thelargerthegroup,thegreatertheopportunityforheterogeneousrepresentation.b) Alargergrouprequiresmorecoordinationandmoretimetoallowforcontributions.c) Aminimumoffivetoamaximumofaboutfifteenisbest.dBecausefiveandsevenarcOddnumbers,strictdeadlocksarcavoided.7. Effectivenessshouldnotbeconsider
